2023 Late-Round Targets: Players Worth a Flyer

The late-round flyer. For many fantasy owners, these draft picks are afterthoughts. Some use them carelessly, assuming the picks will get churned off the roster anyway. However, late-round picks can change the fate of a fantasy season and should be approached strategically. Hitting on a player in the last few rounds who ends up contributing significantly is a winning advantage. Ideally, a late-round target is a player with proven skills who has an opportunity for an increased role. But these players also come with significant questions — that's why they're still available in the late rounds — whether it be injury, role or skills. There's no risk, though, because the cost is so low. Use late picks as calculated shots at big upside.

Below are late-round flyers for 10-, 12- and 14-team leagues for the 2023 fantasy football season. 

10-Team Leagues

Jeff Wilson, RB Dolphins
Summer ADP: 13th Round

Wilson averaged 21 carries, 88 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns Weeks 2-5 last year for San  Francisco. Then the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey and Wilson became expendable. Miami coach Mike McDaniel, who coached Wilson in San Francisco the four previous years, jumped at the chance to acquire Wilson, trading for him Week 8. He averaged 5.4 YPC in his first three games with the Dolphins, but a hip injury derailed him. He could have a significant role this season, even if he doesn't win the starting job. He doesn't have the speed of Raheem Mostert or rookie Devon Achane, but he's a lot bigger than both at 6-foot, 213, which likely would give him the goal-line carries. Durability could be his biggest obstacle — he's missed 29 games since entering the league in 2018.

Darnell Mooney, WR Bears
Summer ADP: 14th Round 

Mooney had some fantasy buzz entering last season as he was coming off 81 receptions for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns in 2021. But in 2022, a terrible offense with little intention of passing and a late-season ankle injury combined to destroy all hope. The Bears added DJ Moore this offseason, allowing Mooney to move back to the No. 2 role for which he is better suited. The Bears are bound to throw more this season, and QB Justin Fields should make strides in his third year. Add 4.38 speed, and Mooney has a better chance to do this year what many expected last year. 

D'Onta Foreman, RB Bears
Summer ADP: 15th Round 

Foreman stepped into a larger role in Week 7 last season after the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. He finished with a career-high 203 carries, posting 4.5 YPC, also a career high, as he had five games with 100 rushing yards. Foreman signed a one-year deal with the Bears this offseason and is the biggest (6-0, 235) and fastest (4.46 40) of the team's running backs and profiles as the lead early down back. He'll need to hold off Khalil Herbert and fourth-round draft pick Roschon Johnson — and QB Justin Fields will gobble up a big share of carries, of course — but Foreman could carve out a significant role. 

Nico Collins, WR Texans
Summer ADP: 18th Round 

Collins is in position to emerge as the Texans' No. 1 receiver. Robert Woods is coming off a career-worst season and is 31. John Metchie hasn't played since December 2021 after battling an ACL tear and leukemia. Houston signed WR Noah Brown and TE Dalton Schultz from Dallas and drafted Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round). None is a formidable obstacle to targets for Collins, who is 6-4, 215, with 4.43 speed, and profiles as the only big outside receiver on the roster. A foot injury limited Collins to 10 games last year, but prorating his stats to a full season would give him 63 catches, 817 yards and 3.5 touchdowns on 112 targets. And he was forced to play with backup-level quarterbacks. Even though C.J. Stroud is a rookie, he should be an upgrade over Davis Mills and company. 

DJ Chark, WR, Panthers
Summer ADP: 19th Round 

Chark is the top downfield receiver for the Panthers. He proved he can be productive in 2019-20, averaging 63 receptions, 857 yards and 6.5 touchdowns with the Jaguars. Injuries derailed him the last couple years, but when he finally got healthy last season after a seven-week absence, he had 388 yards at a clip of 18.5 yards per catch in his last six games with the Lions. Durability remains a concern — he underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp — and he'll likely play with a rookie QB in Bryce Young, but Chark is big (6-3, 200) and fast (4.34 40 at the 2018 combine) and should be in store for good target volume.

12-Team Leagues

Irv Smith, TE, Bengals
Summer ADP: 15th Round

Smith has been a popular breakout candidate the last few years. However, his best season was in 2020 when he posted 365 yards and five touchdowns. In addition to missing the entire 2021 season with a knee injury, he missed 12 of 33 games between 2020 and 2022. Smith is now with the Bengals and has little competition for tight-end targets. Don't be surprised to see Smith running free in the middle of the field while defenses deal with the exceptional wide receiver trio of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. And while those three will command heavy volume, the departed Hayden Hurst averaged 5.2 targets per game last year, so Smith should have opportunities.

Chase Brown, RB Bengals
Summer ADP: 16th Round

A fifth-round pick in this year's draft, Brown was a workhorse back at Illinois last season, showing the ability to run inside and outside. He also is a good receiver who can run routes beyond screens and dump-offs. At the NFL Combine, he posted 84th-percentile speed and 93rd-percentile explosiveness. Brown only has Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans standing in his way to the backup job, and potentially the starting job if Joe Mixon is released to save cap space or for reasons related to his off-field problems. Williams is a fifth-year back who had eight touches last year; Evans is in his third year after two catches and no carries last season. Brown is faster (4.43 40) and more skilled than both. 

Alec Pierce, WR Colts
Summer ADP: 16th Round

A second-round pick last year, Pierce had an up-and-down rookie season, but that had a lot to do withinept quarterback play. He's 6-3, 211, with 4.41 speed and profiles as the team's best deep threat. This year, he'll catch passes from rookie Anthony Richardson or veteran Gardner Minshew. Either (or both) should be an upgrade from what he dealt with last year. Opinions about Richardson's readiness for the NFL vary, but he did well on his deep throws at Florida last year and certainly doesn't lack for arm strength.

Rashid Shaheed, WR Saints
Summer ADP: 17th Round

An undrafted free agent, Shaheed worked his way into regular playing time as a rookie last season thanks to injuries. It didn't take him long to prove his worth. Shaheed averaged 17.4 yards per catch, using his 4.4 speed to post four catches of at least 40 yards. He went from averaging two targets per game to almost five in his last five games. Outside of Chris Olave, the aging and oft-injured Michael Thomas is Shaheed's main competition for targets. In other words, Shaheed could emerge as the No. 2 option before long. 

Tyler Conklin, TE, Jets
Summer ADP: 18th Round

Conklin has been a productive tight end the last couple years with the Vikings and Jets, averaging 59.5 receptions, 573 yards, three touchdowns and 87 targets. Despite dealing with terrible quarterback play last year in New York, he had three games with at least 79 yards. He played at least 66 percent of snaps in all but one game last year and should fill that role again, but the big difference is the QB upgrade to Aaron Rodgers. Aside from No. 1 wide receiver Garrett Wilson, Conklin might be the team's best weapon in the middle of the field, and the rest of the WR group is mediocre. Conklin could have a career year. 

14-Team Leagues

Jerome Ford, RB Browns
Summer ADP: 15th Round

Ford was buried on the depth chart last season as a fifth-round pick, playing mostly on special teams. But he could have a bigger opportunity this season with Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson gone. He should begin the season as the backup to Nick Chubb, as Demetic Felton, John Kelly and Nate McCrary do not pose a huge challenge. If Chubb misses time, Ford would get starting snaps behind an excellent offensive line. At 5-10, 210, Ford tested in the 78th percentile for speed while his explosiveness was respectable — 50th percentile. His upside makes him worth a flyer.

Gus Edwards, RB Ravens
Summer ADP: 16th Round

After a preseason knee injury ended his 2021 campaign, Edwards missed the first six games last year still recovering. He then averaged 5.0 YPC on 92 attempts as the backup to J.K. Dobbins, getting 9-14 carries in each of his last seven games. Edwards recorded an impressive 71st-percentile broken-tackle rate and was 80th percentile in yards after contact. He's in the same role this season, and if Dobbins, who also missed the 2021 season and only played eight games last year, is injured again, Edwards would be a quality starter. Hurting his fantasy value is a likely move toward more passing this season with a new offensive coordinator. 

Khalil Shakir, WR Bills
Summer ADP: 18th Round

Shakir was seldom used during his rookie season. He showed playmaking ability, as four of his 10 receptions gained at least 20 yards. He also had solid performances in both of the Bills' playoff games. After the team parted ways with Isaiah McKenzie, Shakir is the favorite to be the primary slot receiver. The upside scenario is if the Bills play a large percentage of three-receiver sets and Shakir soaks up targets. The downside could occur if tight end Dalton Kincaid, who was selected in the first round of the draft, takes over as the de facto slot receiver in an offense heavy on two-TE sets. In that case, the team would often use just two receivers, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis presumably soaking up most of the snaps.

Tim Patrick, WR Broncos
Summer ADP: 20th Round

Patrick missed last season with an ACL tear. Although he returns to a crowded depth chart consisting of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, second-round draft pick Marvin Mims and KJ Hamler, Patrick could have a role in three-receiver sets. In the two years prior to his injury, he averaged 52 receptions, 738 yards, 5.5 touchdowns and 82 targets. He could provide Russell Wilson with a big body (6-4, 222) on the outside who can win contested catches downfield. It's also no sure thing Sutton remains ahead of Patrick on the depth chart. On the other hand, Mims could win a prominent role, which might mean limited snaps for Patrick if he doesn't return to pre-injury form.

Richie James, WR  Chiefs
Summer ADP: 20th Round

James is in a better situation after moving from the Giants to the Chiefs. When the Giants were decimated by injuries at wide receiver, James played a heavy role starting in Week 11. It was the first time in his four-year career with consistent usage, ultimately seeing 70 targets. He'll likely need to win a role in the slot after playing 74 percent of his snaps there in 2022. In Kansas City, he shouldn't face overwhelming competition. If he carves out a sizable role, he could easily surpass the 569 yards he had last year. However, if Skyy Moore shows improvement and Kadarius Toney stays healthy, James could end up with few opportunities.

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