So far in my 2012 Sleepers Series I've looked at The Flashers and The Once Walking Wounded, two categories that I carried over from last year's series. This week I've got two more retreads, starting here with The Unrealized Potential.
No one from last year's version really broke through with a monster season, but there were some who took major strides. Others, well, did nothing. A mixed bag can likely be expected from my 2012 group, especially since I've expanded it from 10 to 18 guys, but before getting to them, here's a quick look at the highlights and lowlights from last year's crop.
Best – Eric Decker, snagged eight touchdowns despite having to catch wounded ducks from Tim Tebow for more than half the season. Honorable mention tied between Early Doucet and Damian Williams, each of whom finished with over 500 yards and five scores only to see their teams take a receiver in the first round of the draft. Sorry guys.
Worst – Dorin Dickerson, whom no one will remember because he never even made Houston's 53-man roster but who, spoiler alert, will appear in a later installment of the 2012 Sleepers Series. Honorable mention to both Stephen Williams and Cedric Peerman who made their rosters but put up a pathetic 15 combined scrimmage yards between them.
The Unrealized Potential – generally reserved for 2nd or 3rd year players that were strong college performers and/or high draft choices that have yet to get their chance at the next level or produce like they are capable of doing. Given the right set of circumstances, they could emerge at any time.
- Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots (5-11, 225 ; age 23)
Ridley seemed poised to steal the lead role in the Patriots' backfield early last season when he looked highly explosive in a 10-carry, 97-yard outing versus the Raiders that included a 33-yard scoring jaunt. But instead he proceeded to be worthless for the next nine weeks, compiling just a measly 83 yards in that entire stretch. After re-emerging for the final three weeks to rush for 210 yards on only 39 carries, Ridley once again disappeared in the playoffs. Despite the up-and-down rookie season, he has a strong chance to be the leader of the Patriots' backfield committee now that BenJarvus Green-Ellis is gone. With just the old and declining Joseph Addai and the much smaller tandem of Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead vying for carries, Ridley could dominate the early down and goal line work and be just an injury or two away from a huge role in an elite offense. An impressive preseason would warrant mid-round status for the former LSU Tiger.
- Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (5-9, 205 ; age 23)
In a rookie season that was plagued by ankle and hamstring injuries, Vereen saw just a measly 15 carries (though one went for a score). Now that he is healthy, the third running back taken in the 2011 draft should be Ridley's top competition for the top rusher in New England. A promising blend of quickness, vision and balance, Vereen has the tools to be an every-down back and should have an opportunity in his second season to display his talents, whether Ridley leads the way coming out of the summer or not. At the bare minimum, Vereen should be a late round flier due to his involvement in one of the league's best offenses. After all, Bill Belichick didn't draft him in the second round just to watch.
- Golden Tate, WR, Seattle Seahawks (5-10, 202 ; age 23)
With Mike Williams falling into his old lazy ways and the health of Sidney Rice being a legitimate concern, Tate should get enough opportunity to finally show if he's for real or not. He followed up a seriously disappointing rookie season with another dud last year, even getting passed up on the depth chart by undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin. The arrival of Matt Flynn in Seattle should lend itself to a much more effective passing game though, so it's put up or shut up time for Tate. Given his dynamic ability after the catch and the small strides he made late in 2011, I'm betting the 2009 Biletnikoff winner puts up.
- Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (5-11, 229 ; age 22)
Rashard Mendenhall will be out to start the season, likely beginning the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list as he comes back from a torn ACL that concluded his 2011 campaign in Week 17. Isaac Redman is a hungry veteran who is expected to get the bulk of the workload out of the backfield, but he's not especially experienced himself. That should leave Dwyer—who stole the spotlight in Redman's first start by going for 107 yards on 11 attempts last year versus Tennessee—to pick up any extra carries right out of the gate in Week 1. If anything happens to Redman, or Dwyer once again upstages him, the feature role in Pittsburgh could fall into the hands of the 2008 ACC Player of the Year.
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Atlanta Falcons (5-6, 196 ; age 22)
Even though the diminutive scatback didn't get a big workload as a rookie, he was still able to display the tremendous quickness that helped him to a whopping 4,933 total yards and 51 touchdowns in his three seasons at Oregon State. With Michael Turner getting up there in age (he just turned 30 in February) and having averaged more than 300 touches a year in each of his four seasons as a Falcon, the possibility of him breaking down or seeing his workload diminish increases with each game he plays. If Rodgers gets an extended opportunity to show off his shifty moves, he could become a solid source of total yards.
- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4, 233 ; age 22)
Gabbert received a bit too much criticism in his rookie year. Granted his nickname in Jacksonville could have been "Happy Feet" for the way he got nervous in the pocket and threw off his back foot too often, but with the horrendous mish-mash of receivers he dealt with in Year 1, most of his errors can be forgiven. And considering that he transitioned from a spread formation in college to being consistently under center for the first time in a lockout-shortened year, one can imagine that his errors can also be corrected. Consider that Gabbert threw just 11 picks to his 12 touchdowns as a rookie while Mark Sanchez—2011's tenth highest scoring quarterback in standard formats—threw 20 interceptions in his rookie season, also with 12 scores, on about 50 fewer passes and with better receivers. Gabbert does throw a pretty ball when he sets his feet, and with an injection of receiver talent led by Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson, he could well be worth owning and even occasionally starting as a back-up in his second season.
- Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis Rams (6-3, 247 ; age 24)
After an impressive preseason in which Kendricks caught three touchdowns in four games made him an early sleeper favorite, the rookie tight end completely laid an egg during the games that mattered. He caught less than 50|PERCENT| of his targets on the year for a disappointing 352 yards and no scores. But the young man did have to deal with three different quarterbacks and a complicated offense on the heels of the lockout. So a number of factors can be blamed for his struggles. Bottom line is that Kendricks is a special athlete for the position and if he improves his chemistry with Sam Bradford he could end up as the team's leading receiver, particularly given the complete absence of any established targets.
- Riley Cooper, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (6-3, 222 ; age 24)
Cooper, the biggest of the Eagles wideouts, has the size, athleticism and penchant for the big-play that should allow him to challenge for a lot more targets in his third year. Jason Avant has been the No. 3 receiver for several seasons now, but other than having reliable hands, he brings little to the table and could be supplanted by the more dynamic Cooper. However, with plenty of mouths to feed in Philly, that may still not lead to fantasy relevance unless the Eagles are hit with injuries.
- Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, (6-2, 220 ; age 23)
After showing off his athleticism and playmaking ability as a rookie in 2010, I put Benn among The Flashers last year only to see him take lateral steps in 2011. Although he came back quickly from a torn ACL that ended his rookie campaign, Benn was slow getting up to speed and had just one game of fantasy note. Nevertheless, he is a phenomenal athlete and will be nearly two years removed from his knee injury when training camp opens in July. Though the presence of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams will likely limit Benn to competing with Dezmon Briscoe (who can be found in this year's Flashers) for just the No. 3 receiver spot, an injury to either could open the door for Benn to finally translate his physical potential to the field.
- Danario Alexander, WR, St. Louis Rams (6-5, 217 ; age 23)
The lack of a standout receiver in the Rams' offense and the tremendous size/speed combo that Alexander presents has made his potential the past two seasons highly tantalizing. And then he gets hurt. The huge, dynamic threat he poses has been severely minimized in each of his first two seasons by some knee or leg injury, which is why college's leading receiver from 2009 went undrafted in the first place. But the possibility remains that he could somehow survive an entire season intact. In a St. Louis offense desperate for competent and explosive receiver play, that could translate to a ton of targets and some impressive overall numbers. So keeping Alexander on the radar as a waiver pick-up is just good due-diligence.
- Joe Webb, QB, Minnesota Vikings (6-4, 220 ; age 25)
Webb's fantasy value is tied to two things: Christian Ponder's health and his ridiculous, otherworldly athleticism. If Ponder were to go down Webb would need to be considered as a promising back-up quarterback simply because his legs could produce big fantasy numbers any given week. Case in point, Week 14 at Detroit, Webb replaced a banged up Ponder halfway through the third quarter and threw for 84 yards and a score and rushed for 109 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown burst. In a quarter and a half he went for 21 points in standard leagues (one fumble lost) and even more in leagues with fractional scoring and bonus points. Oh and he did basically the same thing two weeks later at Washington, going for 84 yards and two scores on just five pass attempts and adding 34 on the ground with another score. That's the huge upside. Now imagine what he might be if he sharpened his passing skills, had better receivers and became the full-time QB—all things that could happen this season with one Ponder injury.
- Kellen Davis, TE, Chicago Bears (6-7, 267 ; age 26)
On 28 career catches in three seasons this monstrous tight end has nine touchdown catches. And now Davis finds himself as the No. 1 tight end in a Mike Tice offense that could heavily involve the position in the passing game. Assuming Davis sees a lot more targets in 2012, he could become one of the premier scoring tight ends, even if that ridiculous 32|PERCENT| touchdown rate is cut in half. With deceptive athleticism and uncoachable size, he's a great red zone weapon and if Tice puts him to work as much as he's alluded to that possibility, Davis could be a great bye-week starter, if not a regular matchup-based play.
- Joe McKnight, RB, New York Jets (5-11, 205 ; age 24)
McKnight has been buried behind Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson in his two seasons as a Jet, but with LT out of town 2012 could be his year to finally translate his physical abilities to on-field production. In the only two opportunities he's received in his short career to be the lead back McKnight has piled up an impressive 294 total yards, with at least 120 in each game. His 4.4-speed and elusiveness in the open field have been his strongest attributes, but during this offseason he's reportedly bulked up to about 215 pounds to help him withstand a bigger workload. While he still has to beat out Bilal Powell for the No. 2 job behind Greene, the extra strength combined with his superior acceleration and long speed should give him the edge in that battle, and could lead to him being the lightning to Greene's so-so thunder.
- Ramses Barden, WR, New York Giants (6-6, 224 ; age 26)
One has to imagine that this is Barden's final chance to contribute in the Giants' offense before the team will send him packing. In three seasons, this behemoth receiver with upside as high as he is tall has produced a pathetic 15 catches and zero scores. But the former third-rounder had to battle a learning curve as a rookie coming from tiny Division I-AA's Cal Poly and has dealt with a wide variety of injuries, including an ankle issue that forced him to the PUP list to begin 2011. With Mario Manningham out of town, Hakeem Nicks out for the preseason with a broken foot and just rookie Rueben Randle and the bionic-legged Domenik Hixon competing with him for reps, Barden has a chance to finally establish himself this offseason. Keep an eye on this scenario during August in case Barden's play and his potential finally meet.
- Dion Lewis, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (5-8, 195 ; age 21)
With a low center of gravity and the quick-twitch ability to cut and juke defenders in very small spaces, Lewis has a similar running style to LeSean McCoy and fits well into the Eagles' offensive system. His ability to accelerate to top speed in a hurry allows him to run between the tackles, get the corner outside or turn a short screen into a big gain. While the arrival of Chris Polk as an undrafted free agent and the selection of Bryce Brown in the seventh round of the draft means there's no guarantee that Lewis will be the primary back-up to McCoy, he's still the front-runner for that role entering training camp, and should he hold onto it, he could become a spot starter if at any point McCoy goes down.
- Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens (6-4, 245 ; age 26)
Counting the playoffs, Pitta caught four touchdowns in the Ravens' final eight games of 2011. His strong mitts may be the best on the roster, as evidenced by his fantastic 71|PERCENT| catch rate and while he's not quite as athletic as fellow tight end Ed Dickson, he runs better routes and is as good as any receiver on the team at working back to Joe Flacco when his quarterback gets in trouble. With Anquan Boldin falling off some as he ages, Pitta could step up as the team's top possession target and chain-mover, which could also translate to more looks in the red zone. At the tight end position he's a long shot to become an every-week starter, but his ability and potential opportunity make Pitta one worth watching.
- Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions (5-11, 220 ; age 25)
Bell is one of those quintessential preseason darlings who has yet to do anything when the games count. Entering his third offseason and with his fifth team, Bell has rushed for 334 yards and three touchdowns in seven preseason games between the Bills and Saints while averaging an impressive 5.8 yards per carry. He's also added 154 receiving yards on just 13 catches. Now with his home state Lions, the former Division II player of the year at Wayne State has a chance to secure an active roster spot because of the myriad of injury concerns that exist between Jahvid Best (concussion), Mikel Leshoure (Achilles) and Kevin Smith (Mr. Glass, so everything). If he can make it three straight impressive preseasons, the shifty back with good vision and a fight-for-every-inch mentality could finally make his regular season debut in 2012.
- Devin Thomas, WR, Chicago Bears (6-2, 221 ; age 25)
Sometimes you just can't give up on a guy's potential until he gives up on himself. With a guy like Thomas, a 2008 second-rounder (picked 34th overall, two spots ahead of Jordy Nelson) with a phenomenal blend of size, speed and strength but a limited college receiving background, it can take a situation that is just a perfect fit for his potential to surface. He was extremely raw and somewhat immature when the Redskins drafted him out of Michigan State, but between being released after just two seasons and not being able to stick with the Panthers in his third year, he seems to have been humbled. He was a key special teams contributor on the Giants' Super Bowl team last year, displaying his 4.4-speed as a kick returner and cover man, and his willingness to do that is evidence of a more mature person and player. Now latched on with the Bears, Thomas could be just an injury or two away from having the chance to show if he has seasoned as a receiver as well.