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Is Pitcher BABIP Luck?

There's a school of thought that pitchers primarily control strikeouts, walks and fly balls allowed, but don't much control what happens once the ball is put into play, i.e., whether a batted ball finds a fielder or an empty space. Sure there are exceptions like knuckleballers who typically induce weaker contact, but for the most part - the theory goes - batting average on balls in play allowed is largely random for pitchers. As a result, it's should be a safe bet that pitchers like Felipe Paulino (.341 BABIP in 2011) , Ricky Nolasco (.331) and Edwin Jackson (.330) should all normalize toward the league average (.295) in 2012 - or at least their teams' average, assuming their defense is roughly equal to last year's. (The Marlins, for example had a team BABIP allowed of .297). But is it?

Assuming non-knuckleballers don't have a lot of say in their BABIP, the pitchers with the best and worst career BABIPs should be roughly equal, with the best BABIP's having a slight advantage simply due to their good luck on balls in play. But over an entire career, that luck (a) shouldn't be too extreme because the sample is so large, and (b) fluctuates so much over time.

There are 176 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 IP since 1995. Let's take a look at the best-50 and worst-50 by BABIP:

Best 50 BABIPIPBABIPWorst 50 BABIPIPBABIP
Mariano Rivera1211.10.262Glendon Rusch1477.10.326
Matt Cain1317.10.265Zach Duke10410.323
Barry Zito22520.268Paul Quantrill1015.10.319
Orlando Hernandez1314.20.268John Burkett16510.316
Ted Lilly19110.27Aaron Sele18980.315
Tim Wakefield30060.273Charles Nagy1227.20.314
Jarrod Washburn1863.20.273Shane Reynolds1631.10.312
Jeremy Guthrie1020.10.273Jimmy Haynes1200.20.312
Ryan Franklin12010.273Edwin Jackson10790.311
Johan Santana1908.20.275Jeff Fassero1604.10.31
Scott Elarton1065.10.275Jeff Francis1065.20.31
Carlos Zambrano1826.20.276Carlos Silva1241.20.31
Jered Weaver1131.20.276Paul Maholm1143.20.31
Woody Williams21200.276Jaime Navarro1012.10.31
Jamie Moyer3019.10.277Andy Pettitte3055.10.309
Kerry Wood1371.10.278John Lackey18760.309
Rick Helling1474.10.278Sidney Ponson1760.10.309
Pedro Martinez2567.20.279Brian Moehler1567.10.309
Tim Hudson2503.10.279Jason Jennings1128.10.309
Bruce Chen1164.20.279Esteban Loaiza20990.308
Cole Hamels1161.10.28Zack Greinke1279.20.308
Tom Glavine28910.281Aaron Harang1622.10.308
Al Leiter20520.281LaTroy Hawkins1261.20.308
Rick Reed1296.10.281Julian Tavarez1365.20.308
Bronson Arroyo1874.10.282Mark Hendrickson11690.308
Freddy Garcia2076.10.283Doug Davis1715.20.307
Denny Neagle1565.20.283Aaron Cook1312.10.307
Eric Milton1582.10.283Livan Hernandez3121.20.306
Greg Maddux3097.10.284Chuck Finley15640.306
Hideo Nomo1976.10.284Pedro Astacio1779.10.306
Jon Garland2083.10.284Jeremy Bonderman11760.306
Pat Hentgen1626.20.284Scott Karl10020.306
Ismael Valdez17990.284Scott Erickson14690.305
Wilson Alvarez1221.20.284Joey Hamilton12320.305
Dustin Hermanson12830.284Nate Robertson1152.10.304
Kirk Rueter17400.284Ryan Dempster2042.20.303
Brian Anderson14340.284Darren Oliver1756.20.303
Justin Verlander1315.10.285Shawn Estes1678.10.303
Randy Wolf2110.10.285Mark Redman1238.20.303
Kevin Brown1977.10.286Dontrelle Willis1221.20.303
Brandon Webb1319.20.286Kelvim Escobar15070.302
Jake Peavy1581.10.286Carl Pavano1725.20.302
Steve Trachsel2335.10.286John Thomson1270.10.302
Paul Byrd16970.286Kyle Lohse17620.302
Brett Tomko18160.286Chad Billingsley1013.20.302
Russ Ortiz1661.10.286Scott Kazmir10220.302
Ron Villone11680.286Pat Rapp11500.302
Chan Ho Park19890.287Jon Lieber2089.10.301
Andy Ashby1444.10.287Brad Penny18710.301
Andy Benes13890.287Jeff Weaver18380.301

As you can see, there's arguably only one (marginal) Hall of Famer (Andy Pettitte) among the bottom 50, and one current star (Zack Greinke). Among the top 50 are the following: Mariano Rivera, Matt Cain, Johan Santana, Jered Weaver, Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Justin Verlander, Kevin Brown, Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy.

Maybe I'm underestimating how much BABIP "luck" spares pitcher arms, giving them better health and more confidence, but even so, that would be reason enough to take it seriously, even if it were pure luck initially. More likely, though, while BABIP - like batting average- fluctuates greatly week to week and even year to year, for the most part it's a greatly associated with more skillful pitchers.

That's not the same as saying Nolasco, Paulino or Jackson can't bounce back - or can't as Pettitte and Greinke (so far) have overcome bad luck/inability to induce weak contact - or that |STAR|some|STAR| of BABIP can be explained by luck. Just that a poor BABIP very likely has a repeatable skills component to it and that you should be wary targeting outliers for bounce-backs without some other compelling reason.