There's a school of thought that pitchers primarily control strikeouts, walks and fly balls allowed, but don't much control what happens once the ball is put into play, i.e., whether a batted ball finds a fielder or an empty space. Sure there are exceptions like knuckleballers who typically induce weaker contact, but for the most part - the theory goes - batting average on balls in play allowed is largely random for pitchers. As a result, it's should be a safe bet that pitchers like Felipe Paulino (.341 BABIP in 2011) , Ricky Nolasco (.331) and Edwin Jackson (.330) should all normalize toward the league average (.295) in 2012 - or at least their teams' average, assuming their defense is roughly equal to last year's. (The Marlins, for example had a team BABIP allowed of .297). But is it?
Assuming non-knuckleballers don't have a lot of say in their BABIP, the pitchers with the best and worst career BABIPs should be roughly equal, with the best BABIP's having a slight advantage simply due to their good luck on balls in play. But over an entire career, that luck (a) shouldn't be too extreme because the sample is so large, and (b) fluctuates so much over time.
There are 176 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 IP since 1995. Let's take a look at the best-50 and worst-50 by BABIP:
Best 50 BABIP | IP | BABIP | Worst 50 BABIP | IP | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mariano Rivera | 1211.1 | 0.262 | Glendon Rusch | 1477.1 | 0.326 |
Matt Cain | 1317.1 | 0.265 | Zach Duke | 1041 | 0.323 |
Barry Zito | 2252 | 0.268 | Paul Quantrill | 1015.1 | 0.319 |
Orlando Hernandez | 1314.2 | 0.268 | John Burkett | 1651 | 0.316 |
Ted Lilly | 1911 | 0.27 | Aaron Sele | 1898 | 0.315 |
Tim Wakefield | 3006 | 0.273 | Charles Nagy | 1227.2 | 0.314 |
Jarrod Washburn | 1863.2 | 0.273 | Shane Reynolds | 1631.1 | 0.312 |
Jeremy Guthrie | 1020.1 | 0.273 | Jimmy Haynes | 1200.2 | 0.312 |
Ryan Franklin | 1201 | 0.273 | Edwin Jackson | 1079 | 0.311 |
Johan Santana | 1908.2 | 0.275 | Jeff Fassero | 1604.1 | 0.31 |
Scott Elarton | 1065.1 | 0.275 | Jeff Francis | 1065.2 | 0.31 |
Carlos Zambrano | 1826.2 | 0.276 | Carlos Silva | 1241.2 | 0.31 |
Jered Weaver | 1131.2 | 0.276 | Paul Maholm | 1143.2 | 0.31 |
Woody Williams | 2120 | 0.276 | Jaime Navarro | 1012.1 | 0.31 |
Jamie Moyer | 3019.1 | 0.277 | Andy Pettitte | 3055.1 | 0.309 |
Kerry Wood | 1371.1 | 0.278 | John Lackey | 1876 | 0.309 |
Rick Helling | 1474.1 | 0.278 | Sidney Ponson | 1760.1 | 0.309 |
Pedro Martinez | 2567.2 | 0.279 | Brian Moehler | 1567.1 | 0.309 |
Tim Hudson | 2503.1 | 0.279 | Jason Jennings | 1128.1 | 0.309 |
Bruce Chen | 1164.2 | 0.279 | Esteban Loaiza | 2099 | 0.308 |
Cole Hamels | 1161.1 | 0.28 | Zack Greinke | 1279.2 | 0.308 |
Tom Glavine | 2891 | 0.281 | Aaron Harang | 1622.1 | 0.308 |
Al Leiter | 2052 | 0.281 | LaTroy Hawkins | 1261.2 | 0.308 |
Rick Reed | 1296.1 | 0.281 | Julian Tavarez | 1365.2 | 0.308 |
Bronson Arroyo | 1874.1 | 0.282 | Mark Hendrickson | 1169 | 0.308 |
Freddy Garcia | 2076.1 | 0.283 | Doug Davis | 1715.2 | 0.307 |
Denny Neagle | 1565.2 | 0.283 | Aaron Cook | 1312.1 | 0.307 |
Eric Milton | 1582.1 | 0.283 | Livan Hernandez | 3121.2 | 0.306 |
Greg Maddux | 3097.1 | 0.284 | Chuck Finley | 1564 | 0.306 |
Hideo Nomo | 1976.1 | 0.284 | Pedro Astacio | 1779.1 | 0.306 |
Jon Garland | 2083.1 | 0.284 | Jeremy Bonderman | 1176 | 0.306 |
Pat Hentgen | 1626.2 | 0.284 | Scott Karl | 1002 | 0.306 |
Ismael Valdez | 1799 | 0.284 | Scott Erickson | 1469 | 0.305 |
Wilson Alvarez | 1221.2 | 0.284 | Joey Hamilton | 1232 | 0.305 |
Dustin Hermanson | 1283 | 0.284 | Nate Robertson | 1152.1 | 0.304 |
Kirk Rueter | 1740 | 0.284 | Ryan Dempster | 2042.2 | 0.303 |
Brian Anderson | 1434 | 0.284 | Darren Oliver | 1756.2 | 0.303 |
Justin Verlander | 1315.1 | 0.285 | Shawn Estes | 1678.1 | 0.303 |
Randy Wolf | 2110.1 | 0.285 | Mark Redman | 1238.2 | 0.303 |
Kevin Brown | 1977.1 | 0.286 | Dontrelle Willis | 1221.2 | 0.303 |
Brandon Webb | 1319.2 | 0.286 | Kelvim Escobar | 1507 | 0.302 |
Jake Peavy | 1581.1 | 0.286 | Carl Pavano | 1725.2 | 0.302 |
Steve Trachsel | 2335.1 | 0.286 | John Thomson | 1270.1 | 0.302 |
Paul Byrd | 1697 | 0.286 | Kyle Lohse | 1762 | 0.302 |
Brett Tomko | 1816 | 0.286 | Chad Billingsley | 1013.2 | 0.302 |
Russ Ortiz | 1661.1 | 0.286 | Scott Kazmir | 1022 | 0.302 |
Ron Villone | 1168 | 0.286 | Pat Rapp | 1150 | 0.302 |
Chan Ho Park | 1989 | 0.287 | Jon Lieber | 2089.1 | 0.301 |
Andy Ashby | 1444.1 | 0.287 | Brad Penny | 1871 | 0.301 |
Andy Benes | 1389 | 0.287 | Jeff Weaver | 1838 | 0.301 |
As you can see, there's arguably only one (marginal) Hall of Famer (Andy Pettitte) among the bottom 50, and one current star (Zack Greinke). Among the top 50 are the following: Mariano Rivera, Matt Cain, Johan Santana, Jered Weaver, Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Justin Verlander, Kevin Brown, Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy.
Maybe I'm underestimating how much BABIP "luck" spares pitcher arms, giving them better health and more confidence, but even so, that would be reason enough to take it seriously, even if it were pure luck initially. More likely, though, while BABIP - like batting average- fluctuates greatly week to week and even year to year, for the most part it's a greatly associated with more skillful pitchers.
That's not the same as saying Nolasco, Paulino or Jackson can't bounce back - or can't as Pettitte and Greinke (so far) have overcome bad luck/inability to induce weak contact - or that |STAR|some|STAR| of BABIP can be explained by luck. Just that a poor BABIP very likely has a repeatable skills component to it and that you should be wary targeting outliers for bounce-backs without some other compelling reason.