Ricky Nolasco

Nolasco was unceremoniously shipped out of Minnesota at the deadline after he struggled to a 5.13 ERA in 21 starts. His fortunes changed upon arrival to Anaheim. He went on to allow just seven earned runs over his final six starts and zero earned runs in his final three outings. His strikeout rate fell back down after ticking up in 2015, but Nolasco regained some control in his age-33 season, posting a 5.4 percent walk rate (down from 8.1 percent in 2015), his lowest since 2011. For his career, Nolasco holds identical 3.85 FIP and xFIP marks, but a 4.52 ERA. At this point, it's hard to imagine Nolasco will fall in line with those indicators after underachieving all these years, but he should make regular starts in a division with four pitchers' parks (yes, Minute Maid included). He's been largely written off by a significant portion of the baseball community and isn't being treated as anything in early drafts, but those in AL-only leagues could do worse when looking for a staff filler.

The first two seasons of Nolasco's four-year, $49 million contract have been nothing short of disastrous for the Twins, as he's struggled to stay healthy and performed terribly when on the mound, producing a 5.40 ERA and 6.7 K/9 rate over 191.2 innings. Nolasco hurt his ankle in late May and missed four months only to return for two token outings at the end of the season. Nolasco did have an 8.4 K/9 in his nine outings, but that came with poor control (3.4 BB/9). He has some upside due to his strikeouts (career 7.3 K/9) and flyball tendencies with an improved Twins outfield defense. Nolasco will compete for the fifth starter role this spring, but it's possible the Twins could move him to the bullpen.

Nolasco's first year with the Twins was a disaster after signing the largest free agent contract in Minnesota history (four years, $49 million). His large contract will likely keep him in the rotation, but he may be demoted to fifth starter with an influx of top pitching prospects coming. Nolasco struggled to start the season with a putrid 5.90 ERA and .330 BAA before he landed on the DL in July with a sore right elbow. He was better when he returned in August, with a 4.39 ERA and 43:10 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings over the final two months. While Nolasco saw a decline his strikeout rate to 6.5 K/9 from 7.4 K/9 in 2013, it was right around his career rate. In fact, most of Nolasco's peripheral numbers were similar to his career levels, so he appears to have been a bit unlucky. He had a career-high .351 BABIP and was a frequent victim of Minnesota's poor outfield defense. But he did give up 22 home runs after moving to a home park that was thought to offset his flyball tendencies. Nolasco still has good control and perhaps his elbow injury was a factor last season, so he could rebound. However, his strong 2013 season is looking like an outlier and he may continue to struggle with the Twins if the outfield defense isn't improved.

At 3.70, Nolasco posted his best ERA since 2008, as the right-hander made a career-high 33 starts between stints with the Marlins and Dodgers. With a 7.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, Nolasco's underlying peripherals remained solid and he showed a slight uptick in his velocity last season. Nolasco faded a bit down the stretch, posting a devilish 6.66 ERA in September before getting hit hard by the Cardinals in his only postseason start. Despite that, the Twins signed him to a four-year deal as a free agent this offseason, where he will likely chew up innings and begin the year as the team's Opening Day starter. The move into the American League is offset somewhat by the pitcher-friendly nature of his new home park at Target Field.

Perennially a sabermetric tease, Nolasco posted his third straight season with an ERA in the mid-4.00s and his second straight campaign with a WHIP over 1.35. Nolasco's strikeout rate dipped significantly in 2012 (5.9 K/9) and that mark has dipped in each of the last four seasons since he struck out over a batter per inning in 2009. While his walk rate remained a solid 2.2 BB/9, that number represented his worst performance since 2007 and the 2.7 K/BB is also his worst rate since that season. All told, Nolasco has settled in as little more than a back-of-the rotation arm with solid control whose strong underlying statistics (career 3.83 FIP) fail to match the mediocre results (4.49 ERA) that he has put up over seven major league seasons.

For once Nolasco's ERA and WHIP matched his peripherals, but his fantasy owners wish they hadn't. His K/9IP rate sagged to 6.47, his lowest mark since becoming a regular starter, and his BABIP exploded to .331. He's lost just a tick of velocity off his fastball, but that little bit was enough to erode his numbers substantially. If he can't get the ball by hitters any more (after successive years with a swinging-strike percentage over 10 percent, Nolasco put up just a 8.9 mark in 2011) he'll struggle to be even a league average pitcher going forward. If you're thinking about rostering him this season, keep a very close eye on those late spring radar gun readings.

Once again Nolasco put up a shockingly high ERA given his stellar K/BB ratios, and a late knee injury robbed him of any chance to shave a few points off it in September. The surgery went well and he should be fine by the start of spring training, and even a slight regression back to the mean for his elevated 2009-2010 BABIPs would mean another All-Star caliber season. The Marlins were confident enough in his return to form that they signed him to a three-year extension, which is a pretty big vote of confidence from a penny-pinching organization like Florida. Don't let those inflated ERAs scare you away.

After taking the NL by storm in 2008, Nolasco fell back to earth last season, posting a 5.06 ERA and even getting sent down to Triple-A at one point, but a deeper look at his numbers only deepens the mystery of his regression. Nolasco's strikeout rate actually improved significantly without much of an increase in his walk or home-run rates, and his BAA didn't see a big jump either. He didn't even have particularly bad bullpen support. Given Nolasco's ratios, that ERA should come way down in 2010, but without an obvious explanation as to why it went up in the first place that statement comes with a tiny bit of doubt.

Nolasco entered 2008 as a 25-year-old pitcher struggling to define himself. He had yet to really establish himself as a starter, and while the Marlins made some noise about giving him a chance to close the opportunity never materialized. He instead barely won the fifth starter's spot, and appeared to be on his way to another unremarkable season when he finally began to harness the split-finger pitch he'd added to his repertoire in the spring. The turnaround was stunning, and Nolasco went from staff filler to ace seemingly overnight. The National League never did figure out the new Nolasco and his numbers actually got better after the All-Star break, including an astounding 98:12 K:BB ratio in 95.2 innings. There'll be some questions about whether he can repeat such an out-of-nowhere performance, but to all outward appearances those numbers are for real. He'll enter 2009 as the Marlins' #1 pitcher, and if the offense can help him win a few more games he might even be a dark horse Cy Young candidate.

Elbow trouble limited Nolasco to just 21.1 ineffective major league innings, and the Marlins seem inclined to move him to the bullpen full-time, where he'll be able to get a little more out of his fastball and keep hitters off his merely decent breaking pitches. If he can get back into the rotation he'd have a bit of upside (he did strike out better than a batter an inning as recently as 2005 in Double-A), but right now he seems like reserve list fodder at best.

Nolasco was one of four Marlins rookie starters to break the double-digit mark in wins in 2006, but as the least-heralded of the bunch he might have to prove himself all over again in 2007 to keep the job. Florida's brain trust (not the oxymoron it was a few seasons ago) has considered trying him at closer as well, a move that could add some pop to his fastball and elevate his stuff from good to excellent. Keep an eye on both his status and his performance this spring, as his fantasy value will be very volatile until his role is settled.

Nolasco outmatched hitters at Double-A for the second season in a row and showed good command. He struggled in a brief stint at Triple-A in 2004, but should open the year there next spring. Nolasco has good, but not outstanding stuff, so he'll have to be sharp to thrive at Triple-A and in the majors. If all goes well, he could crack the Florida rotation at some point this summer.