NBA Draft: Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren Lead Top Lottery Prospects

NBA Draft: Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren Lead Top Lottery Prospects

This article is part of our NBA Draft series.

With the NCAA Tournament bracket released, the most crucial month of basketball is here -- for stars of college basketball and NBA personnel alike.

The 2022 draft class had been regarded as weak, at times. While still not expected to be prolific, a few wild cards and the overall youth of the prospective pool do add considerable intrigue. As has become more common in recent years, the first round will feature top talent from the NCAA, NBA G League, as well as overseas.

When ranking these top 14 picks, Tari Eason and Jaden Hardy (G League Ignite) are among the honorable mentions not currently featured in the below mock lottery. 

1. Jabari Smith, F, Auburn

Jabari Smith possesses the highest ceiling in the draft. His game is going to progressively develop for the next 4-6 years. At the absolute minimum, he's Channing Frye. That combination of a respectable floor and sky-high talent is top-pick worthy. Smith will take some ill-advised shots, but seeing him navigate peaks and valleys in his scoring this season has generated additional confidence.

2. Chet Holmgren, C/F, Gonzaga

Virtually every aspect of Chet Holmgren's game presents something to like. His three-point shooting will translate to the next level. Success, through the pick-and-pop game as well as trailing in transition, to knock down threes is likely. Defensively, it's hard to envision him being below average. That being said, his lack of strength has scouts wondering whether he'll ultimately be equipped to anchor a defense with a Rudy Gobert-esque impact. Huge questions certainly reside on the physicality front, but his diverse skills keep him ahead of the rest of the field.

3. Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

Ivey is among the prospects with the most star potential. He can step in as an X-factor and provide an identity to a team. An offensive career arch similar to Donovan Mitchell isn't impossible. Ivey is a two-way asset with a good NBA build.

4. Paolo Banchero, F, Duke

An offense-first big that will play above and below the rim, Banchero excels in transition. He'll be a stabilizing presence to a frontcourt. Banchero is going to deliver what everyone wanted out of Marvin Bagley

Banchero falling past Oklahoma City -- wherever the Thunder end up near the top of the lottery -- would lend surprise. He'd be a tone-setter with none of Darius Bazley, Isaiah Roby, and Aleksej Pokusevski flashing enough to be viewed as long-term pieces.

Banchero's ball-handling won't stall offenses. He's a solid and safe lottery selection.

5. Bennedict Mathurin, G, Arizona

Underrated for his court vision, Mathurin's decision-making needs work, but playmaking can be a fluid part of his game. Mathurin's three-point shooting is promising and he's among the top athletes in the draft. He exudes confidence and his motor runs on high. The rest can follow.

6. Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky

There is no bigger allure to changing a franchise than a star guard. Sharpe is a wild card who some team will take a flier on. The guard class is arguably the weakest position in 2022. Sharpe enrolled at Kentucky in January and isn't anticipated to play for the Wildcats until next season. He will be NBA-draft eligible, but it's unclear if the 18-year-old will declare. If he does, he'll have suitors.

7. A.J. Griffin, G/F, Duke

Griffin is a talented athlete with great size. The shooting is there, with a strong base and flow of motion through his shot. 

However, his archetype of being a dominant shooter at a premier school will continue to become more and more common. In transition, Griffin is more likely to run into his preferred spot beyond the arc than create a play or push a drive.

Sliding him down the board in favor of more dynamic, upside-ridden choices is logical at the top of the lottery. Griffin's injury history -- he dislocated his knee in high school -- is something worth monitoring.

8. Jalen Duren, C, Memphis

The length of Duren allows him to have effective closeouts, but sometimes he'll let his man drift too far. Switchable at the college level, but he may not be a 2-through-5 defender in the NBA. 

Duren slots in at No. 8 because it seems unlikely that a string of mid-lottery teams would all pass on the big man. His status as the consensus top "traditional" big elevates him up draft rankings. It's likely he'll be drafted for fit, as opposed to being the best player on the board.

Duren is 18 years old, conveying shades of a young Dwight Howard. Evolving his game will be a project for a franchise, but Duren is a worthwhile project.

9. Keegan Murray, F, Iowa

Murray is underrated for his floor general abilities. There are two-way tools to be excited about. His frame will allow for average NBA defense and he's a factor on the glass. Murray can score in a lot of ways and at all tempos. His offensive rating of 131.3 is top-10 in the country. Murray was extremely impressive in the Big Ten Tournament, leading Iowa to the title.

10. Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin

How will the skillset of Johnny Davis translate to the next level? It's difficult to interpret -- especially his post game. Betting on Davis to convert a lot of midrange looks may simply lead to him being an inefficient scorer in the league. There is some risk here.

Davis' passing needs work, but he's an elite rebounder at the guard position. He's already displayed his ability to make leaps. Even if his offensive repertoire is diverse, can he consistently generate enough space against top athletes? The NCAA Tournament will be a pivotal stage for Davis.

11. Dyson Daniels, G, G League Ignite

Daniels is a fluid attacker with impressive finishing skills. About to turn 19 years old, Daniels ceiling as a penetrator and coast-to-cost offensive force is top tier. Three-point shooting and limiting turnovers are two areas that will need improvement.

12. TyTy Washington, G, Kentucky

Washington doesn't project as a plus defender, and comes off flat offensively at times. He'll demonstrate impressive speed and finishing, but Washington needs to progress as a shooter and grow as a shot selector. Sahvir Wheeler is a prominent enough distributor that a lot of pressure gets taken off Washington. 

13. Kendall Brown, G/F, Baylor

Brown is great in transition, partially due to his pure athleticism. He's an impressive finisher that will keep getting better. Brown presents an exciting ceiling as a defender -- he's hustle oriented and switchable. Imagine a lean, improved version of De'Andre Hunter.

Brown doesn't shoot as many threes, but he's also in an offense where he isn't a go-to guy. Brown is still just 18 years old. He has a fast, modern build that would generate some easy buckets. 

If Brown knocks down corner threes and open looks there's no reason his shooting as a whole should be considered a liability.

14. Malaki Branham, G, Ohio State

Branham is poised offensively. He can be a blur to the basket running the pick-and-roll. He can be a capable scorer at all three levels. Branham is one of the finer combinations of athleticism and polish in this lottery. Like Kendall Brown, Branham is still just 18 years old. While he isn't a lock to declare, a big showing in the NCAA Tournament could push him towards the end of the lottery. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Henry Weinberg
Henry is a sports writer and analyst, specializing in NBA analysis, CBB coverage and draft prep. He's a freelance scout, passionate baseball fan, elite fantasy football player and former Butler Bulldog.
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