This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how my recommendations from last Thursday's games fared.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs: Only two teams in the league – the Spurs and the Rockets – are both inside the bottom five of opponent points per game and outside the bottom 10 for pace. Put less math-ily, the Spurs and the Rockets allow fewer points than everyone else because their defense is better, not because their offense moves slower. They play at a near-average speed, and are third and first, respectively, in opponent points per possession. Except while the Rockets are mostly injured and will spend their Wednesday hosting the well-above-average Kings, the Spurs get to host the floundering Pacers. And a Pacers squad probably without starting center Roy Hibbert (ankle) to boot.
Offenses to Use
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks: With so many games to choose from, I try to target matchups between two strong offenses with weak defenses – on a night this busy, the scores needed to win are too high to risk using a player likely to be rested at the end of a blowout. Four of the league's five most efficient offenses are in action Wednesday, and one, the Raptors, faces an offense inside the top 10. Quietly, the Raptors have been a strong defense this season – allowing the fifth fewest points per possession – but that strength has been partially masked by their above-average pace. Both these teams allow slightly above average opponent field goal percentage. Both teams are among the worst in the league at rebounding, which means individual players who earn most of their value on the glass are positioned for a strong showing.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: None
Second game of a back-to-back: Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, Golden State Warriors, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks, Sacramento Kings, Denver Nuggets
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Louis Williams, TOR (at ATL), PG, ($4,900): The downside here is that Williams' price has risen dramatically in light of his current hot streak. The other downside is that Jeff Teague is a capable defender. But Williams is still priced for his pre-hot-streak role in the rotation, when he was averaging fewer than 20 minutes per night. He has played 24 minutes or more in three of his last five games, and 26 minutes or more in his last two. Based on that workload, he is still underpriced. And since Williams heads the second unit, Teague is more of a problem for starter Kyle Lowry.
John Wall, WAS (at CLE), PG, ($9,900): There is a fine line between chasing yesterday's production and riding the hot hand. However, with a player of Wall's ability, when four double-doubles in six nights combines with Kyrie Irving's subpar defensive abilities, the fine line might not really matter. Cleveland is a dreadful (and well-earned) 28th against opposing point guards, and Wall will be eager to prove that last week's dismantling of the Cavaliers was no accident.
Other suggestions: Steve Blake, POR (at CHA), PG, ($3,000)
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford, LAC (at DET), SG, ($5,400): Crawford averaged 20 points and 26.5 fantasy points over his last two games. Those were against two of the stingier backcourts in the league, the Grizzlies and the Hornets. Now, those production lines on their own represent fantasy profits at this price point – but that's without accounting for Crawford's Wednesday night opponent, the Pistons. The Pistons are 25th in the league against shooting guards. The Grizzlies are 5th, and the Hornets are 15th.
Courtney Lee, MEM (at LAL), SG, ($4,300): Before collapsing into fantasy worthlessness against his old team Friday, Lee was costing daily players up to $5,000. But after Friday's egg against the Celtics, Lee got right back to work Sunday, to the tune of 13 points and 24.25 fantasy points against the Clippers. The Lakers are one of the most favorable fantasy opponents, especially at shooting guard, and the Grizzlies play slow enough that they are unlikely to run up a big lead early.
Other suggestions: Klay Thompson, GS (at ORL), SG, ($7,400)
Small Forward
Omri Casspi, SAC (at HOU), SF, ($3,000): Casspi is a consistent piece of the Kings rotation when Rudy Gay is active, seeing court time between the low teens and low twenties each night. Well, Gay is out for the second straight game Wednesday, and Casspi is the direct beneficiary. With Gay out Tuesday, Casspi scored 22 points in 36 minutes for 31 fantasy points. He needs only halve those totals Wednesday to earn daily gamers a profit.
Other suggestions: Wilson Chandler, DEN (at PHO), SF, ($5,200)
Power Forward
Quincy Acy, NY (at DAL), PF, ($3,000): No one is "excited" about using Quincy Acy, myself included. But if you aren't sold on the other dirt-cheap options I've put together here, then how about a combo forward averaging 28 minutes during his last four outings on a night the Knicks will be without Carmelo Anthony (back). He's averaging just over seven rebounds and seven points per game in that span, and is one of several Knicks in line for extra run to replace Anthony's 34.5 minutes per game.
Other suggestions: Paul Millsap, ATL (vs TOR), PF, ($9,200)
Center
Aron Baynes, SA (vs IND), C, ($3,000): As I alluded to in the Defenses to Avoid section, above, this Spurs-Pacers games looks to hold high blowout potential. The Spurs have won three of their past four games by 10 or more points. In each of those games, Baynes has played at least 19 minutes, scored at least 10 points, grabbed at least eight rebounds, and netted 23 or more fantasy points.
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (at HOU), C, ($10,500): With Dwight Howard out, the Rockets don't have a player who can match Cousins' ability, size, or athleticism. Cousins costs so much that it will be hard for him to earn much profit, but the matchup is so favorable that he should be able to provide fair value for the expense. An additional mark in Cousins' favor – with Gay out, and Darren Collison (quad) questionable, the Kings will look to Cousins to control an even bigger slice of the offense.
Other suggestions: Lavoy Allen, IND (at SA), C, ($3,400); Ian Mahinmi, IND (at SA), C, ($3,800)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Andrei Kirilenko (personal)
Markel Brown (hip)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (foot)
Gary Neal (shoulder)
Jeff Taylor (suspension)
Matthew Dellavedova (knee)
Randy Foye (quad)
Jodie Meeks (back)
David Lee (hamstring)
Dwight Howard (knee)
Terrence Jones (leg)
Patrick Beverley (hamstring)
Paul George (leg)
George Hill (knee)
C.J. Watson (foot)
David West (ankle)
Xavier Henry (Achilles)
Steve Nash (back)
Julius Randle (leg)
Ryan Kelly (hamstring)
John Henson (foot)
Damien Inglis (foot)
Johnny O'Bryant (knee)
Nate Wolters (illness)
Ronny Turiaf (hip)
Nikola Pekovic (wrist)
Kevin Martin (wrist)
Ricky Rubio (ankle)
Carmelo Anthony (back)
Cleanthony Early (knee)
Russell Westbrook (hand)
Kevin Durant (foot)
Mitch McGary (foot)
Aaron Gordon (foot)
Devyn Marble (shoulder)
Joel Embiid (foot)
Jason Richardson (foot)
Jerami Grant (ankle)
C.J. McCollum (finger)
Rudy Gay (Achilles)
Tiago Splitter (calf)
Patty Mills (shoulder)
Rodney Hood (foot)
Nene Hilario (foot)
Martell Webster (back)
Game-Time Decision
Kevin Garnett (rest) is expected to play Wednesday.
P.J. Hairston (ankle) will play Wednesday.
Raymond Felton (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Darrell Arthur (knee) is questionable.
JaVale McGee (leg) is a game-time decision.
Brandon Jennings (thumb) is listed as a game-time decision Wednesday, but reports on the injury and the medical procedures he is undergoing give the appearance that he is unlikely to play.
Luigi Datome (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Roy Hibbert (ankle) is doubtful.
Matt Barnes (calf) is a game-time decision.
Chris Douglas-Roberts (Achilles) is out for Wednesday's game.
Carlos Boozer (shoulder) is a game-time decision. Coach Byron Scott is "optimistic" that Boozer will play.
Ed Davis (ankle) will play Wednesday.
Thaddeus Young (personal) is likely to play Wednesday.
Mo Williams (illness) is questionable.
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring) is a game-time decision.
Perry Jones (knee) is day-to-day.
Kyle O'Quinn (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Tobias Harris (calf) is a game-time decision.
Evan Fournier (quad) is questionable.
Darren Collison (quad) is questionable after missing Tuesday's game.
Cory Joseph (ankle) is doubtful.
Matt Bonner (illness) is probable.
Tyler Hansbrough (shoulder) will be a game-time decision.
