Top 400 Prospect Rankings Update

The final regular-season update to the top 400 prospect rankings went live earlier this week, and the team top 20s and ETAs have all been updated as well. On Wednesday, I answered subscriber and listener questions on the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.

 You can listen to the RotoWire Prospect Podcast or subscribe on your podcast app by searching "RotoWire Prospect Podcast".

Here is the written version of the podcast. Feel free to add your own question in the comments, on Twitter or on Discord.

O's Flows: Seems like an incredibly strong top six, and then a big tier drop. That ring true to you?

That's spot on. I love the top six (Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, Junior Caminero, Jordan Lawlar, Wyatt Langford, Dylan Crews). Those are guys I'd be aggressively trying to get my hands on before they debut. After that, I think there's another small tier from 7-13 (Jackson Merrill, Colt Keith, Jasson Dominguez, Paul Skenes, Pete Crow-Armstrong, James Wood, Roman Anthony), and then things really open up. Basically from Noelvi Marte at 14 to Chase DeLauter at 48, I think that's one big tier where you should allow personal preference and need to factor into your valuations.

Chunky Pinochle: Emmet Sheehan totally off the list?

He graduated (45+ days on active roster), otherwise he'd be my No. 2 pitching prospect.

John Vaghi: It seems you are quite confident in Kyle Hurt (LAD) maintaining a starter role. He obviously has strikeout stuff, but struggles with command. Can you expound on why you feel he is a top 100 prospect?

Ryan: Could you speak a bit about Kyle Hurt (LAD)? Is he a poor man's Kyle Harrison or DL Hall?

He's been the best strikeout pitcher in the minors this season, is having success at Triple-A and is a Dodgers pitching prospect, so those factors alone, even if there was only a 50/50 chance he makes it as a starter, are enough to warrant top-100 consideration. He's walked two or fewer in all but three outings this year — there was a seven-walk outing that is particularly inflating his walk rate. Most importantly, the stuff backs up the results, headlined by a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and two swing-and-miss secondaries in his slider and changeup. I could see comparing him to Harrison. His stuff might not even be as outrageous as peak Hall's stuff, but he also doesn't come with the quite the same durability concerns that have followed Hall.

Toolsy: Curtis Mead is ranked high, but his team context has me concerned. The Rays called him up and never played him. Will he have a spot with Junior Caminero (TB) on the way? His defense also is not his strength so that could impact his opportunity to play at least on the Rays...

It's not hard to make a case against having Mead as high as I have him, and he's in that massive 14-48 tier I referenced earlier. I just absolutely believe in his bat eventually playing in an everyday role, even near the bottom of the defensive spectrum. They moved on from Kyle Manzardo (CLE), so that's one short-term playing time competitor out of the picture. Eventually with the Rays, if you hit, you play. Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz are good facsimiles to Mead in this respect. They also like to trade guys before they get to free agency, so you never know when they'll sell high on a hitter who seems like part of their core.

St. Louis Perfectos: Ceiling alone, rank these teen prospects Echedry Vargas (TEX), Jaison Chourio (CLE), Rayner Arias (SFG), Cristhian Vaquero (WAS), Emmanuel Bonilla (TOR), and Luis Lara (MIL). In leagues with ~250 prospects rostered are any worth dropping being further from the majors?

For ceiling: Arias, Chourio, Vaquero, Bonilla, Lara, Vargas. Smaller guys like Vargas often put up misleading numbers in the lower levels and then the production flattens out against upper-level pitching. Chourio and Vaquero are very similar. They have the speed, they seem to have pretty good hit tools, but there's no sign that power is coming. That doesn't mean power won't come, but it means there's a big gap between their floor and ceiling. Arias has the most realistic chance of being a five-category guy, and his tiny pro sample works in his favor from a ceiling standpoint. Meanwhile, Lara has by far the highest floor of the bunch.

Daniel: What are you expecting to see from Masyn Winn in the regular season?

I assume you mean next regular season. Winn and Everson Pereira are two guys I have ranked in the top 20 but whom I don't have much interest in this year. I really like that they're getting some harsh lessons in the big leagues this year though, so that hopefully they'll be better prepared to have some success in 2024 and beyond. With Winn, I used to think the fantasy production would be similar to peak Kolten Wong, but after the power rampage he went on this summer at Triple-A (13 HR, .576 SLG over his last 55 games) as the youngest qualified hitter at that level, I think he can be a top-10 fantasy shortstop at peak. I'm not sure whether 2024 will look like a peak season, but 20/20 is in play as early as next season, and I think he'll hit in the .260-.280 range during his prime. He's the type of guy I don't want to draft high enough in 2024 that I'm kind of banking on him being in my lineup most weeks, but if I can get him as a late middle infielder or bench bat, that'd be great.

M_Festtt: CJ Abrams recent burst has him finishing at least 15/40+ with other young stars like Corbin Carroll, Bobby Witt, and Julio Rodriguez. Is he someone you believe in and would you hold in dynasty, or look to sell and if so, for what?

Right now, I'd be valuing Abrams similarly to guys like Royce Lewis, Riley Greene, Jazz Chisholm and Oneil Cruz in dynasty, so a borderline top-50 asset. Obviously the youth, speed and playing time are the three biggest things working in his favor. I don't think the power gets to the point where he's in the Carroll/Witt/Rodriguez range, and I generally try to build my teams so that I'm dominant in HR, R, RBI, AVG/OBP and mid-pack or better in SB. It's tough to be elite in all five categories, and stolen bases don't correlate as strongly as the other four categories. If you do plan on moving him before the start of next season, I'd wait until closer to Opening Day, when ADP will have enforced his stature as a third or fourth round redraft player.

Steve G: Coby Mayo (BAL) with the dreaded red arrow? Is it anything he did/didn't do or just a bunch of prospects shooting past him. Same with Kyle Manzardo (CLE).

ChzBeef: Curious what caused Andrew Painter (PHI) to move up and Coby Mayo (BAL) to move down since the last update…

Aaron Mullens: I'm surprised you haven't dropped Andrew Painter (PHI) lower. Why do you value him as a top-40 prospect given the injury and timeline to the bigs?

This is a good example of the arrows sometimes being meaningless and drawing attention to something that isn't there. I didn't set out to lower any of these three prospects. In the case of Mayo, I like him a lot. If I were to nitpick, it would be about his path to playing time and how much his home park surpresses righty power. Again, he's part of a massive tier of guys, so if you want to value Mayo ahead of say, Curtis Mead, whom I've got 27 spots higher, I wouldn't argue at all. Just think of all the guys in that tier as if they're all borderline top-25 prospects, because any of them could be in the top-25 on my first offseason update.

In the case of Painter, he'd be the clear No. 2 pitching prospect and a top-15 overall prospect if he were healthy. Tommy John surgery is a bummer and will delay his debut, but he was probably going to need TJS at some point early in his career, and he's getting it out of the way now. There's a supply and demand issue with young aces, so I don't want to be too short-sighted with him, since he's one of less than a handful of pitching prospects with realistic ace upside. I didn't even realize I had lowered/bumped Mayo/Painter enough for them to get arrows, and given that they're in this big tier, I wish the arrows weren't there at all for them. 

Manzardo's had an unlucky, tragic (personal tragedy) and somewhat lost season. His upside is perhaps a little lower than I thought it was before the year -- I no longer see a .320 AVG, 25-HR type of ceiling -- but he still projects as a quality 1B/DH who debuts early next season.

Paul: Big jump for Jett Williams (NYM). What type of power/speed upside does he have? Could he be Jose Altuve light — a smaller stature player with power/speed combo?

Daniel: Does Jett Williams play 2B for the Mets next year? Is it unreasonable to see his ceiling as a 300/400/500 with 20-40 seasons?

I think you guys are pretty close to correctly tabbing his absolute upside, although unlike Altuve, he won't get a chance to benefit from the Crawford Boxes as a righty playing half his games in Houston, and instead he'll be in a pitcher-friendly home park. The main point here is to not downgrade Williams' upside because of his stature. People were still making that mistake with Corbin Carroll until he proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt this season.

Adam Leech: I know it's a different level but given the difference in batting average, is what Joendry Vargas (LAD) is doing any less impressive than Sebastian Walcott's (TEX) production?

Aaron Mullens: Why did Sebastian Walcott (TEX) get the double down arrows?

I know you mentioned it, Adam, but I think you might be underrating the diference between the Dominican Summer League and complex ball. We can be much more confident in Walcott's raw tools, because there are scouts and analysts going to all of his games. There just isn't reliable intel available beyond the surface stats for DSL guys, and there are a dozen guys with just as good of DSL stats as Vargas, I'm just giving him a bump over all of them because he has the most pedigree.

Walcott's disciplinary benching from late-July has me a bit concerned and I think I got too caught up in his upside with my prior ranking. I apologize for saying he was suspended on the podcast. I just misspoke, he was benched for disciplinary reasons, not suspended. He still has No. 1 overall prospect upside, but he's going to need to work hard every offseason to get there. A player can get suspended by the team without being a bad guy, but it's just a small little warning factor to consider.

Scott Courlander: How much can we really tell about some of these guys who are old for their leagues? Guys like Blake Dunn (CIN), Ben Rice (NYY), and Justice Bigbie (DET)...

We can't really tell that much about their hit tools. We know Dunn has a nice well-rounded skill set and Rice hits the ball really hard and Bigbie is capable of putting up video game numbers in full-season ball. But any prospect ranked in that range (179-181) is unlikely to pan out, unless they're just super boring with a really low ceiling, so I believe there's a place for guys like this in the top 200. We see guys without pedigree or age/level turn into quality big leaguers every year, so I don't want to completely ignore guys like this. That said, if that's not how you would want to use a roster spot, I completely understand.

JLD: Do you see Jackson Holliday on the Orioles in the first or second half of next season?

Opening Day. He'll probably be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year if they break camp with him, so there's a significant incentive for Baltimore to go that route and try to get an extra draft pick. I think Mike Elias' dream is to have three shortstops playing 3B/SS/2B, and he'll have that in Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg. I assume I will be pretty interested on Holliday in redraft leagues and can't wait to see where his ADP settles.

JH Schroeder: One high K-rate hitter where you believe in the hit tool, and one low K-rate hitter where you're concerned about the hit tool…

For a high-K hitter where I believe in the hit tool: Roman Anthony (BOS) (more on him in a second). For a low-K hitter where I'm concerned about the hit tool: any catcher with a low K-rate. The physical pounding, the fact they're usually below-average athletes, focusing on handling a big-league pitching staff, all works against catchers reaching their true talent as hitters in the majors.

Dynasty Junkie: My trade deadline is Friday and I'm considering dealing Roman Anthony (BOS). I'm aware of the scouting reports, but what do we make of his 30.6 K% and .404 BABIP in A+? Seems like that BABIP is driving the current hype, and perhaps there's still quite a developmental road ahead. Sell high?

I hate comps, but I see so much Christian Yelich (good version, maybe not MVP version) when I watch Anthony. Super aggressive assignment, perfect batted-ball distribution (30 LD%, 38 Pull%, keeps cutting his GB%). He hasn't run much at High-A since he's slugging .558, but speed is there too. His 38.3 Hard% is a ridiculous number for a 19-year-old CF at High-A. If you're gonna run a high BABIP based on skill, Anthony is the type of guy who would do it. So it might be a nice sell-high opportunity, but I wouldn't sell him because of his K% and BABIP, I'd sell him to get a prospect I have ranked higher (if possible) or a good big leaguer who's going to help you win your league this year.

O's Flows: Any obvious sell-high candidates on this list? For example, if Masyn Winn and Everson Pereira keep struggling through the end of the season, do you expect their value to drop precipitously during the offseason?

I feel like Winn and Pereira would be sell-low candidates, even if you sold them today. Of course their value could be a bit lower in the offseason if they don't turn things around, but that doesn't mean you should sell them now, I'd advise being in it for the long haul (I know some of you are making 2-4 trades a week, but for the normal people, I'd hold). To your question, I think James Wood (WAS) is/has been a sell high, just based on what I perceive his value to be in dynasty leagues and the amount of hit-tool risk I see. 

ChzBeef: Dylan Lesko (SD) vs. Brock Porter (TEX) surprises me a bit, the gap more than who's higher. What do you like about one vs. the other?

Lesko has better stuff and should have better command. Plus he already had Tommy John surgery, and with prep pitchers who throw as hard as Porter and are roughly three years away, I just assume they'll get TJS or something will go wrong before they get to the majors. Plus, Porter is walking a ton of guys (14.7 BB%) as a 20-year-old at Single-A and Lesko is three months younger and already at High-A, despite the fact he got a delayed start to his pro career.

Jason E: Does Ethan Salas (SD) have a chance at playing in the Majors at age 18?

He has a chance, and he'll definitely have an ADP in draft and hold leagues. He's already breaking all the rules about how quickly players his age can climb through the minors, so I won't be surprised by any assignment/promotion he gets. He'll be in big-league camp next spring, so it'll be fascinating to see how he does there.

Ike1111Ike: What do you like about Jansel Luis (ARI)? More solid across the board or does something stand out?

His power, and more specifically, his power projection stands out. Good athlete, good tools across the board, switch hitter who will add defensive value. He didn't really skip a beat after getting promoted from the complex to Single-A as an 18-year-old.

Paul: Long-term outlook on Tyler Black (MIL)? Small sample size in AAA is encouraging (16.3 BB%, .372 OBP)...

Black is so tough to rank, especially for batting average leagues. There's no way he'll run this much in the majors (I'd guess he never steals more than 25 bases in a season), and he's a below-average defender. I also worry about guys who are this passive/patient and get a ton of walks against bad pitchers and then betting on that carrying over in the majors when they don't have impact power to keep pitchers with great stuff honest. I say this every year around this time, but the pitching at Triple-A right now isn't very good. Guys are injured, guys are tired, a lot of the best guys are in the majors. It leads to false positives every August/September. So I didn't really answer your question, but I think Black could end up as some sort of blend of Ke'Bryan Hayes and Tommy Edman, but at first base. If that's the case, he probably needs to be on a second-division team to play every day. Still, it's hard not to dream on a bit more with him given his overall production this year.

O's Flows: Royce Lewis is quietly turning into the superstar that you consistently predicted he would become. Where do you think he ends up on the dynasty rankings if he stays healthy and keeps up his current stat line through the end of the year?

I'd rather not look ahead on this hypothetical. If you told me Lewis was going to be a relative ironman the rest of his career, he'd be a top-30 dynasty asset, but obviously we can't assume that even if he were to finish this year healthy. I've got him in 100% of my NFBC FAAB leagues, so it's been a fun ride lately, and I think we should just enjoy the ride for now. He'll be a tough player to rank in the short term, and different dynasty managers will have different levels of tolerance for his injury track record.

Beerbot: Did Kyle Harrisons start last night (Aug. 28) have any influence on his big jump?

It led to me bumping him up about 40 spots. He was at home facing a Reds lineup that barely avoided getting no-hit by Alex Cobb the very next night, so it was a good spot for him to put up an awesome line. Even so, I always preach that the best thing a pitching prospect can do for their dynasty stock is to be having success in the big leagues, and I know Harrison has better pure stuff than most pitching prospects. He has seven walks in his last 20 innings, including Triple-A, which by his standards is excellent.

Cam Anderson: Is it fair to assume Paul Skenes (PIT) is the first pitcher in your T400 off the board for 2024 redraft? Who do you think is 2nd? Do you think you will be in on either at the projected price tag?

I love this question. I'm always trying to think ahead to which prospects will be overvalued and undervalued the next season. I agree with the premise that Skenes will have the highest ADP of any pitching prospect, and I expect him to break camp in the Pirates' rotation. 

A healthy Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) might be second. Cade Horton (CHC) with a good spring training could sneakily challenge for a rotation spot early next year. Guys like Kyle Harrison, Ryan Pepiot, Max Meyer and Mason Miller who have already pitched in the bigs should be considered as well. Three sleepers I like for 2024 draft and hold leagues are Jared Jones (PIT), Robert Gasser (MIL) and Kyle Hurt (LAD).

Name value usually plays a big role with redraft ADP for prospects, and I don't think Skenes or Tiedemann will be values in my eyes. I'm probably going to be hands off with Tiedemann in all formats next year due to his injuries this year and inability to build up his workload. If Skenes is going in the range Grayson Rodriguez was going this year (100-200), I'll probably gravitate toward veteran alternatives, but I could see considering Skenes in the 200-250 range, especially in March if he's healthy and has impressed in spring training.

John H.: How do you compare the risk/upside of young potential sluggers Xavier Isaac (TB) and Lazaro Montes (SEA)? Also, a Davis Schneider breakdown would be fun!

Isaac's splits (.955 OPS, 19.5 K% vs RHP, .672 OPS, 25.3 K% vs. LHP) are my only concern with him. I still expect him to eventually get to at least a Triston Casas level of acceptability vs. same-handed pitching, but the Rays may not allow him to play every day in his first year or two in the majors.

If one of them were to just hit a wall against Double-A pitching and show significant hit tool issues, I'd expect it to be Montes, but you could also argue Montes has a higher ceiling. I think they both project for 70-grade raw power, but if I had to bet on one of them to someday hit 45 home runs in a season, I'd probably bet on Montes. They're right next to each other in the rankings for a reason — it's very hard for me to pick which guy I like more.

As for Schneider, he has a .538 BABIP and .468 ISO, so it's impossible to say with any confidence where his true talent level is. He absolutely murders lefties. He makes OK swing decisions but has a 67.0 Contact% and doesn't project for much speed on the bases. This is a really tough player to slot on prospect rankings, since we know he'll cool down a ton. I'm more in (super short-term) than out, given the everyday playing time, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he got severely over-drafted next year.

Duane Tomka: Who gets to MLB first, Wyatt Langford (TEX) or Dylan Crews (WAS) and is it in 2024?

Definitely in 2024, barring injury. At worst, we'd be looking at a call-up around this time next year so that they retain rookie eligibility heading into 2025, but I think both guys are too talented for them to spend that much time in the minors next season. The Opening Day roster is in play for both Langford and Crews. Crews has a clearer path to everyday at-bats the way both rosters are currently constructed, but Langford's team is the one in win-now mode, so it's hard to say which of those factors will move the needle. I think Langford is slightly better, so I'll say he debuts first, but it's basically a coin flip.

HD: Who is next year's Luis Matos?

Awesome question — i.e. who do I have too low based on a down year. Druw Jones was suggested in the comments, but unlike Matos, he's never actually been good in pro ball, so I don't know if he fits the spirit of the question. Brayan Rocchio, Dalton Rushing and Zac Veen come to mind. Rushing and Veen seem capable of having big bounce-back seasons, and Rocchio would really fit the spirit of the question, as my love of him as a prospect tracks similarly to Matos. Rocchio didn't have the same type of down year this year that Matos did in 2022, but most people, myself included, have started to rule out him turning into a 20-homer threat in his mid-20s. But I'm not compltely ruling out Rocchio becoming a 20/20 guy at peak, and I'd be kicking myself for moving him this low if that ends up happening, similarly to my regrets about lowering Matos this year. The other difference between him and Matos is that if Rocchio has a strong spring training, he could make the big-league roster, so we wouldn't have that multi-month revenge tour in the minors that Matos put on this year.

FZamo: Giving up on Elijah Green (WAS)? Dropping him for someone like Jett Williams (NYM) in dynasty?

I'm not completely giving up on Green, but I'd run to make that move.

Parker: What kind of upside does Bryan Ramos (CHW) have at his peak?

.260-.270 AVG, 25-30 HR, everyday playing time because of his strong defense at 3B.

Aaron Mullens: I know how much you love comps, but can you give me a range of outcomes for Wyatt Langford (TEX)? Also, when do you expect him and Evan Carter (TEX) to debut?

Langford could be a 40-HR/15-SB everyday OF who hits around .280. That's what I see his realistic ceiling being. He hits the ball so hard and is a good enough runner that I think the floor during his prime is a .260 average with 30 HR, 5-10 SB.

It's very challenging to predict what they'll do with Adolis Garcia clearly in the fold, and I think Leody Taveras should be an everyday player for some team, but maybe not a team with championship aspirations. They could let Langford, Carter, Taveras, Ezequiel Duran and J.P. Martinez compete for the two non-Garcia outfield spots during spring training, and that way Langford and Carter could legitimately beat out the others and break camp or just open the year at Triple-A if Taveras/Duran earn everyday spots out of the gate. I think eventually Duran will be getting most of his starts at designated hitter and Taveras will either be traded or demoted to premium fourth outfielder duty. It's a good problem for Texas, but a little messy for our purposes.

Enrique: Any chance George Valera (CLE) is useful in 2024?

It's a big offseason for him. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets designated for assignment before the All-Star break if he doesn't rebound in a big way. Don't expect him to be useful in fantasy next year -- he was too bad and too injured this year for that to be a realistic outcome. I'd rather draft teammate Chase DeLauter in a draft and hold league, and DeLauter hasn't even reached Double-A yet.

Charles Finster: Who's the next Guardians pitching prospect you think can move quickly through the system and make an impact in 2024 or 2025? Are you high on Joey Cantillo (CLE)?

I like Cantillo's stuff — he's been in the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball at times. It's just a question of durability and command. He's my favorite Guardians SP prospect to target for 2024, and I expect to have him in some draft and hold leagues. Will Dion is kind of a Logan Allen-light type of guy who could get a look, but I don't see much upside there.