This article is part of our The Z Files series.
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior," is often attributed to Mark Twain. If Twain was indeed the originator of the quote, there's a good chance he would have been a successful fantasy baseball player, so long as he understood variance in small samples.
Admittedly, the impetus for this discussion is the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Second Chance Contest. These leagues will begin accruing stats after Memorial Day weekend. That said, the information is relevant to current leagues and not just targeted at those planning on participating.
I thought it would be enlightening to look at various leaderboards from last season and compare those at the top from Opening Day through Memorial Day weekend, and from after Memorial Day through the end of the regular season. The purpose isn't to identify specific players to target or avoid, either on current teams or the NFBC contest, but rather be reminded that a lot can change over the last four months of the season. Not only will individual player performance shift, but so will that of our teams. Seeing the ensuing data laid out is a great reminder to keep grinding, as well as not to get too influenced by two months of production when preparing for the Second Chance Leagues.
The first table displays the Top 20 in the five standard rotisserie categories through Memorial Day, with their rest-of-season stats included. The second table shows the same leaderboards from after Memorial Day through the end of the season.
Top
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior," is often attributed to Mark Twain. If Twain was indeed the originator of the quote, there's a good chance he would have been a successful fantasy baseball player, so long as he understood variance in small samples.
Admittedly, the impetus for this discussion is the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Second Chance Contest. These leagues will begin accruing stats after Memorial Day weekend. That said, the information is relevant to current leagues and not just targeted at those planning on participating.
I thought it would be enlightening to look at various leaderboards from last season and compare those at the top from Opening Day through Memorial Day weekend, and from after Memorial Day through the end of the regular season. The purpose isn't to identify specific players to target or avoid, either on current teams or the NFBC contest, but rather be reminded that a lot can change over the last four months of the season. Not only will individual player performance shift, but so will that of our teams. Seeing the ensuing data laid out is a great reminder to keep grinding, as well as not to get too influenced by two months of production when preparing for the Second Chance Leagues.
The first table displays the Top 20 in the five standard rotisserie categories through Memorial Day, with their rest-of-season stats included. The second table shows the same leaderboards from after Memorial Day through the end of the season.
Top 20 from Opening Day though Memorial Day weekend
Top 20 from after Memorial Day through the end of the season
To help gain perspective, the following players appear in the same category on both lists:
BA | Pre | Post | HR | Pre | Post | Runs | Pre | Post | RBI | Pre | Post | SB | Pre | Post |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mookie Betts | 0.359 | 0.339 | Joey Gallo | 15 | 25 | Mookie Betts | 52 | 77 | J.D. Martinez | 42 | 88 | Dee Gordon | 16 | 14 |
Michael Brantley | 0.335 | 0.298 | Jose Ramirez | 15 | 24 | Charlie Blackmon | 41 | 78 | Javier Baez | 42 | 69 | Trea Turner | 14 | 29 |
Freddie Freeman | 0.325 | 0.302 | Khris Davis | 13 | 35 | Francisco Lindor | 40 | 89 | Khris Davis | 38 | 85 | Whit Merrifield | 12 | 33 |
J.D. Martinez | 0.320 | 0.336 | Francisco Lindor | 12 | 26 | Bryce Harper | 34 | 69 | Jose Ramirez | 37 | 68 | Tim Anderson | 11 | 15 |
Jose Martinez | 0.313 | 0.301 | Giancarlo Stanton | 11 | 27 | Jose Ramirez | 34 | 76 | Trevor Story | 35 | 73 | Mallex Smith | 11 | 29 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 34 | 68 | Starling Marte | 10 | 23 | |||||||||
Andrew Benintendi | 34 | 69 | Billy Hamilton | 9 | 25 | |||||||||
J.D. Martinez | 33 | 78 | Trevor Story | 8 | 19 | |||||||||
Jonathan Villar | 8 | 27 | ||||||||||||
Jose Peraza | 8 | 15 | ||||||||||||
Travis Jankowski | 8 | 16 |
To reiterate, no conclusions will be drawn (yet) from the above as it relates to specific players this season, or even whether the number of players on both lists is consistent from year to year. This is only to note that there's a significant difference in the post-Memorial Day numbers. That is, at least for now, the objective isn't to determine "this year's Christian Villanueva or Matt Davidson," a couple of batters who slugged their way onto the pre-Memorial Day leaderboard before fading away. Similarly, for now, the focus isn't on identifying "this season's Matt Carpenter or Adalberto Mondesi". That will be tackled in a couple weeks.
The elegance of data of this nature is everyone can make their own observations. While doing so, keep in mind a 2018 trend may not carry over into 2019. Next week, similar data will be presented for pitchers.