This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Summer is here. It's the time for getting to the ballpark. Friday picks off the first weekend of baseball's base season with 10 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. With those games in mind, here are my DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL at HOU ($9,600): With the injuries that have hit the Orioles' rotation, the team needs Rodriguez to be a true No. 2 pitcher behind Corbin Burnes. Indeed, he's been that, especially recently. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.36 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 rate. The Astros are right in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but that doesn't worry me with how Rodriguez is pitching.
George Kirby, SEA at MIA ($9,400): Kirby has a 3.54 ERA, but his 2.96 FIP through 15 starts is quite encouraging. So is the fact he's on pace to average fewer than one walk per nine innings for the second season in a row. While he has a 4.01 road ERA in his career, compared to a 2.83 home ERA, this matchup balances things out. The Marlins are 29th in runs scored and collectively have posted a .636 OPS.
Kutter Crawford, BOS at CIN ($8,200): Crawford has been allowing homers recently, but he's also been pitching at home. Those things are correlated, as the righty is not the biggest fan of Fenway. This season he has a 4.15 home ERA and 2.62 road ERA, and last year he had a 6.00 home ERA and 2.49 road ERA. Crawford is a different pitcher away from Boston. Meanwhile, the Reds have not improved as expected offensively, having slashed .225/.305/.370 as a team.
Top Targets
In his first season with the Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez ($5,400) has fully bounced back offensively, posting a .261/.329/.505 slash line with 18 homers and 16 doubles in 77 games. This is where I will note that he had a .643 OPS at home in his sole season with the Mariners with an .830 OPS on the road. Safeco Field seems to have been the problem. Patrick Sandoval's 3.81 FIP is better than his 5.24 ERA, though still not good. Additionally, since 2022 he's allowed righties to hit .271 against him.
We are not back to business as usual with Julio Rodriguez ($5,100), but he's now hit .264 with seven homers and 16 stolen bases through 77 games. Additionally, his .763 OPS versus lefties is less of a drop off for him, with early struggles against his fellow righties the real problem. Trevor Rogers, a lefty, has allowed a home run in each of his last four starts, and in three of those outings he managed a mere three strikeouts. He's also allowed righties to hit .292 against him.
Bargain Bats
In a quieter story of redemption at the plate, Jesse Winker ($4,600) has a .380 OBP with seven homers and 11 stolen bases in his first season with the Nationals. That's been stoked by an .836 OPS versus righties. When he was a Cardinals, Dakota Hudson really struggled on the road while putting up acceptable numbers at home. Now that he's with Colorado, that is no longer the case. The right hander has a 7.16 ERA at Coors Field in 2024.
As a rookie, Brenton Doyle ($4,500) brought the counting stats but was still completely overmatched at the plate (a .250 OBP can't be overlooked). This year, his six homers and 18 stolen bases stand out, but he's also hit .267. Granted, he's been terrible on the road, but at home he has a .917 OPS. Doyle's finally enjoying the benefits of Coors Field! DJ Herz is coming off a great start, but it was against the Marlins. He's made three MLB starts and has a 3.77 ERA. Also, all three of those starts have been at home. Pitching in Denver is a different story.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles at Astros (Jake Bloss): Gunnar Henderson ($6,100), Anthony Santander ($4,400), Ryan O'Hearn ($4,000)
How dire are things for the Astros when it comes to their rotation? They have called up Bloss, all of 22, from the minors to make his MLB debut. Specifically, they called him up from Double-A. He made eight starts there, his first action above the Single-A level. Now he faces one of the best offenses in baseball. Welcome to the big leagues.
Not all that long ago, Henderson was the young player making his MLB debut. Of course, he carried the cache of being the best prospect in baseball, and now he's an MVP favorite. From the get go, he's excelled against righties, whom he has a .903 OPS against in his career. It seems like Santander is selling out for power to a degree, but he has 19 homers and has slugged .502, so it's working out. While he's a switch hitter, he has a slugging percentage of .492 against both righties and lefties. That's nice symmetry! O'Hearn has truly remade himself with the Orioles, in part because he truly just plays against righties. He has an .861 OPS versus right-handers this season, and also a .933 OPS on the road.
Red Sox at Reds (Andrew Abbott): Tyler O'Neill ($5,000), Rob Refsnyder ($3,600), Connor Wong ($3,500)
While Abbott has dropped his ERA from 3.87 to 3.42, he's actually pitched worse in his sophomore season. He has a 4.74 FIP, 6.84 K/9 rate and 1.48 HR/9 rate. Cincinnati's ballpark is often kind to hitters – the phrase "band box" is often bandied about – and Abbott has given up 1.6 homers per nine innings at home in his career. Since he is a lefty, I do have three right-handers in this stack. Refsnyder is not guaranteed to play, but I think with a southpaw on the mound he'll be in the mix.
Like with the Cardinals, O'Neill still struggles to stay healthy. The difference is that when he's played for Boston he's absolutely raked. O'Neill has slashed .258/.353/.543 with 15 homers in 51 games, bolstered by an 1.242 OPS versus southpaws. Since 2022, Refsnyder has an .885 OPS against lefties. However, this year he's been terrible at home but great on the road. Specifically, he has an 1.047 OPS in away games. Wong is a fine choice for your catcher spot. He has a .904 OPS versus lefties and also an .872 OPS on the road.
