Lineup Lowdown: National League

Lineup Lowdown: National League

This article is part of our Lineup Lowdown series.

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players who might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Atlanta Braves

Ozzie Albies returned from a minimum stint on the injured list with a fractured toe to reclaim his slot as the No. 2 hitter. That has meant Michael Harris – who was hitting second versus righties – and Orlando Arcia – who was hitting second against lefties – have shifted back down in the batting order. Harris, by the way, spent a large chunk of last season batting ninth, especially against southpaws. This year, though, he hasn't hit lower than eighth and he's done that just three times versus left-handers. More often than not, he's hit sixth (nine times) or seventh (16 times).

– Taking over as Atlanta's primary No. 9 hitter has been Jarred Kelenic, who has occupied the spot a team-high 13 times. Kelenic has started all but one game against right-handers but has yet to make a start versus a lefty, yielding to Adam Duvall those days. The 24-year-old slashed .400/.462/.486 through his first 13 contests this season, but has hit only .158/.200/.184 over his last 13 tilts and is still looking for his first home run of the season.

Miami Marlins

– The rudderless Marlins essentially waved the white flag on their season last week

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players who might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Atlanta Braves

Ozzie Albies returned from a minimum stint on the injured list with a fractured toe to reclaim his slot as the No. 2 hitter. That has meant Michael Harris – who was hitting second versus righties – and Orlando Arcia – who was hitting second against lefties – have shifted back down in the batting order. Harris, by the way, spent a large chunk of last season batting ninth, especially against southpaws. This year, though, he hasn't hit lower than eighth and he's done that just three times versus left-handers. More often than not, he's hit sixth (nine times) or seventh (16 times).

– Taking over as Atlanta's primary No. 9 hitter has been Jarred Kelenic, who has occupied the spot a team-high 13 times. Kelenic has started all but one game against right-handers but has yet to make a start versus a lefty, yielding to Adam Duvall those days. The 24-year-old slashed .400/.462/.486 through his first 13 contests this season, but has hit only .158/.200/.184 over his last 13 tilts and is still looking for his first home run of the season.

Miami Marlins

– The rudderless Marlins essentially waved the white flag on their season last week when they made a rare May trade in dealing Luis Arraez to the Padres. The trade means Miami needs a new second baseman and leadoff hitter. They've already used three different guys at second base, with Otto Lopez starting there the one time they faced a lefty and Vidal Brujan (three) and Nick Gordon (one) receiving starts against righties. Brujan looks to be the biggest beneficiary here. He had already been trending toward everyday status, mostly as a third baseman, but with Jake Burger back from the IL Brujan could settle in at the keystone. He's finally started to show something offensively in 2024 with a .768 OPS, two steals and a 5:6 K:BB.

– As for the leadoff spot, Jazz Chisholm has jumped up to handle the top of the order each of the last four games versus righties, with Dane Myers batting leadoff against the lone lefty. Everyone else basically just moved up one spot, other than Bryan De La Cruz, who remained planted in the two hole as manager Skip Schumaker continued to split up his left-handed/switch-hitters.

New York Mets

J.D. Martinez finally joined the club late last month following a late signing and then a minor back issue while on his "rehab assignment." He's taken over as the Mets' No. 5 hitter and also batted cleanup for a few games when Starling Marte was on the bereavement list. Martinez has received one day off per series so far as he eases back into action, but the 36-year-old should be the everyday DH soon enough.

– Martinez's arrival has meant a significant move down in the batting order for Brett Baty, who had been batting fifth but who has now made eight of his last 11 starts in the eight spot. Baty had also been scuffling at the dish when the move was made, although he's perked back up so far in May in reaching base nine times in his last six contests. The 24-year-old had the first two-homer game of his career last week.

Philadelphia Phillies

Trea Turner unfortunately went down with a hamstring injury over the weekend and is expected to be on the shelf for at least six weeks. In the first two games after Turner went on the IL, it was Edmundo Sosa taking over at shortstop. It seems likely that that will be the setup most days for the Phillies, but on Monday the club shifted Bryson Stott over to shortstop and gave Whit Merrifield the start at second base. Going by OPS+, Merrifield hasn't been an above-average hitter since the shortened 2020 season, but he can still be a fantasy contributor if given regular reps, as evidenced by his 26 steals and 11 homers in 2023 with the Blue Jays.

– Moving up to the No. 2 spot in the batting order left vacated by Turner has been J.T. Realmuto, who has been there for three straight starts after hitting fifth in his previous seven starts. It's a modest little short-term bump in the outlook of Realmuto, although it's possible he could be less inclined to run when he gets on base ahead of Bryce Harper. Realmuto is just 1-for-3 on stolen base attempts so far this season, but his sprint speed remains up in the 88th percentile (which is pretty remarkable for a 33-year-old catcher with tons of wear on his tires).

Washington Nationals

Nick Senzel's defense at third base has been a little shaky. Thankfully, he's done his best to make up for it with some thump at the plate. The 28-year-old homered five times in a five-game stretch late last month and is sporting a .957 OPS since that stretch began. Senzel has been rewarded with a move up in the Nationals' batting order, as he has batted second in five of his last nine starts and has hit lower than cleanup just once over that span.

– Senzel is also seeing more starts at DH than at third base of late, which has opened up more playing time at the hot corner. So far Trey Lipscomb has been the biggest beneficiary. The rookie infielder has handled the hot corner in eight of the last 11 contests for the Nats and he's started a total of 10 games during that stretch. Lipscomb has just a .601 OPS and one home run in his first 25 major-league contests, although he has gone 5-for-6 on stolen base attempts.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Tauchman has become a staple in the Cubs' lineup, making an 18th straight start Tuesday. He's occupied the second spot in the batting order for each of the team's last 13 tilts against right-handed pitching, sliding down to sixth in their lone contest versus a lefty. Tauchman came into action Tuesday sporting a .328/.442/.563 batting line with three home runs, two stolen bases and a 14:11 K:BB across his last 19 games. Cody Bellinger is back and Seiya Suzuki (oblique) is poised to return this weekend, but without a set DH, the Cubs can play Tauchman regularly in the outfield at least versus righties while rotating others at DH.

– Nineteen of Nico Hoerner's last 20 starts have come out of the leadoff spot, with most of them occurring after the Suzuki and Bellinger injuries. However, given that he's slashing .318/.341/.489 over that span, it's looking like he could remain at the top of the batting order even after both players return. It would be quite an uptick in fantasy outlook for the 26-year-old, as Hoerner had been nailed down to the No. 7 spot for the first three weeks of the season. Hoerner has upped his walk rate to an above-average 8.5 percent in 2024 and he's made even more contact than usual with a microscopic 9.2 percent strikeout rate.

Cincinnati Reds

– Two weeks ago in this space, I noted to keep tabs on where Elly De La Cruz was hitting after he had been elevated to the two spot in the batting order for the first time this season. Sure enough, he's now been cemented in the two hole in making 12 straight starts there. He's even started there twice against left-handers, which is a reflection of his improvement against southpaws (.256/.373/.395) this season. De La Cruz is still swinging and missing a whole lot with a 32.6 percent strikeout rate, but he's upped his walk rate to an impressive 13 percent and is currently on pace for an absurd 38-homer, 91-steal campaign.

– Another guy whose spot in the lineup has trended in a favorable direction recently has been Spencer Steer. Steer was down in the seven spot against right-handers for the first couple weeks of the season, but he's hit third in each of the Reds' last 12 tilts (11 of them versus righties). Unfortunately, that's also right around the time Steer's production began slipping in the wrong direction. Still, his bat has been much more reliable than Christian Encarnacion-Strand's or Jeimer Candelario's. The former has gone from hitting third to hitting fifth or sixth lately, while the latter was all the way down in the eight spot Tuesday.

Milwaukee Brewers

– The Brewers summoned Tyler Black from Triple-A Nashville last week and installed him as their regular first baseman against right-handed pitching. He's batted third four times and fourth once in four contests versus righties, and in another game he came off the bench early when the opposition started a lefty opener. Black is capable of playing second and third base, but he was used exclusively at first base at Nashville and it appears that's where Milwaukee intends to deploy him. The biggest playing time loser looks to be Jake Bauers, who now is left to fight for at-bats in the outfield.

Jackson Chourio is scuffling. The 20-year-old's last home run came on April 20, and in 14 games since then he's slashing just .200/.220/.225 with a 31 percent strikeout rate. He was out of the lineup in consecutive games last week for the first time this season, although he's been back in there for each of the last four contests. If he doesn't pick it up, it wouldn't be a total surprise if Chourio gets sent down when Christian Yelich (back) returns. Of course, Sal Frelick isn't exactly setting the league ablaze, either.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Yasmani Grandal (foot) returned from the IL this past Friday and Henry Davis was sent down in a corresponding move. Grandal has earned three starts and Joey Bart two starts since then and would appear likely to continue splitting up the catching duties fairly evenly. Bart cranked three home runs in his first seven games with the Pirates but has since gone hitless across his last seven contests. What's not clear is whether the Pirates could consider using Davis some in the outfield – where he played with them in 2023 – at Triple-A Indianapolis.

Rowdy Tellez has started at first base every time the Pirates have faced a right-hander this season, but it's fair to wonder how long that will continue. Tellez has been dreadful in slashing just .211/.287/.278, and that line has been even worse over his last 22 games at .175/.226/.228. The 29-year-old also provides zero defensive value at first base. Connor Joe is known as a lefty specialist – and he has hit .293/.383/.512 versus southpaws this season – but he's also offering more against righties (.740 OPS) than Tellez (.607 OPS).

St. Louis Cardinals

– Each of Brendan Donovan's first 32 starts of the season came out of the leadoff spot, but he was demoted to seventh in the Cardinals' lineup on Monday against a left-hander before returning to the leadoff spot Tuesday versus a righty. He's actually been better versus lefties (.709 OPS) than righties (.627 OPS) this season, but Donovan has been struggling against everyone for a while now, heading into Tuesday sporting a lowly .474 OPS since April 13. Jose Fermin was sitting atop the lineup Monday.

Dylan Carlson returned from a month-plus absence with a shoulder injury and started two straight in center field versus southpaws. He should receive the bulk of the reps in center with Tommy Edman (wrist) still a ways away, but Mike Siani was back in there against a righty Tuesday and could still be given some starts against right-handers in the coming weeks. The switch-hitting Carlson has collected a career .836 OPS against right-handed pitching and just a .671 OPS versus left-handers.

Edit: I submitted this article before Willson Contreras suffered a fractured left forearm in Tuesday's loss to the Mets, but obviously that injury throws a wrench into the Cards' lineup. Contreras has been the team's best hitter and had hit second for 14 straight games before occupying the three spot Tuesday. Ivan Herrera will be the primary catcher for the next several weeks, and while he has slowed following a hot start, his bat definitely warrants rostership in two-catcher formats.

Arizona Diamondbacks

– Through April 22, Corbin Carroll hadn't batted lower than second in the Diamondbacks' lineup. He then went through a 10-game stretch where he didn't hit higher than seventh before being elevated to leadoff Tuesday.The 23-year-old's season-long slump has continued and he's shown no signs of coming out of it with a sickly .386 OPS and 31.4 percent strikeout rate across his previous 13 contests. Jake McCarthy has been the biggest beneficiary of Carroll's demotion, going from batting in the lower third of the order to hitting leadoff in six straight starts prior to Tuesday.

– It's been surprising that the Diamondbacks haven't just committed to Blaze Alexander at shortstop since Geraldo Perdomo (knee) went on the IL. Alexander has made 13 starts at shortstop (five more at DH) since then, which is the same number as Kevin Newman (he's made four more at second base). Alexander has been impressive with the starts he's been given, heading into action Tuesday slashing .286/.375/.486.

Colorado Rockies

– Injury was added to insult with the struggling Nolan Jones, as he went on the IL in late April with a back injury. Since then, Jordan Beck has made seven straight starts in left field following a promotion from Triple-A Albuquerque. It's been ugly so far for Beck, who comes into action Tuesday having gone 3-for-21 with an 11:0 K:BB. Jones is tracking toward a return pretty soon, but Beck could slide over to right field at that point. He'll need to get going, though. Sean Bouchard has gotten some run in right field and homered in his last game, but that was one of just two starts over the last five contests.

– After making virtually all of his starts from the six spot or lower for the first month of the season, Brenton Doyle has batted second eight times and leadoff twice over the last 10 tilts. Because that's usually how things work, he began struggling almost immediately at that point, putting up a .463 OPS and 30 percent strikeout rate in those games heading into action Tuesday. Doyle is making better swing decisions in 2024 but is still striking out a lot. Peaks and valleys are likely, but he's got a nice power/speed combo if he can just keep his head above water with the average.

Los Angeles Dodgers

James Outman was down in the No. 9 spot in the Dodgers' lineup Monday for the first time since last July. Naturally, he responded with his first home run since April 9. He was rewarded with another start at the bottom of the order Tuesday. The left-handed hitter has started every game versus righties this season, but has started just once versus lefties and that was back on March 31. With Andy Pages impressing and Jason Heyward (back) finally showing some progress, Outman's playing time could be squeezed before long if he doesn't get rolling.

– Speaking of Pages, he's made 19 straight starts since being recalled, splitting them virtually down the middle between 10 starts in right field (against right-handers) and nine starts in center field (against left-handers). The 23-year-old has peaked at sixth in the lineup and it's difficult to see him moving much, if any, higher given who the Dodgers have hitting above him. Pages has a 19:1 K:BB thus far and has been an extreme flyball hitter, so it's going to be hard for him to maintain that .319 average. However, he's hitting the ball hard when he does connect, sporting a 45.5 percent hard-hit rate, 10.9 percent barrel rate and 49.1 percent sweet-spot rate.

San Diego Padres

– There's a new leadoff man in town with the Padres' surprise acquisition of Luis Arraez. Xander Bogaerts had already been moved out of the leadoff spot in favor of the hot-hitting Jurickson Profar for the last five games prior to the trade. He's been down in the No. 6 spot in the lineup in the two contests the Padres have faced a right-hander since Arraez came aboard, with Profar hitting fifth. Arraez is an awkward fit in San Diego positionally, but it would appear he's set to receive most of his time at DH. That's where he's started two of his first three tilts, with the other one coming at second base.

– The Padres are able to use Arraez at DH because Manny Machado was cleared to return to third base beginning on April 26. He has still made four starts at DH since then, but those figure to taper off especially with Arraez now around. Graham Pauley had been seeing some action in the DH slot after Machado returned to the hot corner, but he was sent down to Triple-A El Paso when Arraez was added to the roster.

San Francisco Giants

Matt Chapman's Giants career has gotten off to a brutal start and as a result he's drifted down in the batting order. The third baseman's first five starts of the season came out of the cleanup spot, but he was moved down to five for a while after that, then sixth and finally Tuesday he was down at seventh. Chapman hasn't had a multi-hit game since April 20 and since then is slashing just .185/.214/.222 with a 37.5 percent strikeout rate. He's still hitting the ball hard, but even that hasn't been up to his usual standards, especially his barrel rate which has basically been halved (17.1 percent to 9.2 percent). Chapman's walk rate has also been cut in half (10.7 percent to 5.4 percent).

– The Giants' catching corps has been hit hard by injuries recently, with Patrick Bailey going on the 7-day concussion injured list Saturday and then Tom Murphy joining him on the IL later in the day with a sprained left knee. That leaves Blake Sabol and Jakson Reetz on San Francisco's catching depth chart. Sabol flashed some ability in his rookie season as a Rule 5 pick, ultimately finishing with a .695 OPS and 13 home runs. The 26-year-old has started two of three contests behind the dish since Bailey and Murphy went down and has enough juice in his bat to be a second fantasy catcher while he's getting regular reps.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Boyer
Ryan has been writing about fantasy baseball since 2005 for Fanball, Rotoworld, Baseball Prospectus and RotoWire.
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