Farm Futures: NL East Top 10s

This marks the third installment of this year's top-10 prospect rankings in each organization, continuing with the teams in the National League East. These rankings will be updated throughout the season on RotoWire.com when players switch organizations, lose their rookie eligibility, or when a player's development dictates a change in where they are ranked within their team's system.

Please feel free to start a dialogue in the comments section below, or @RealJRAnderson on Twitter.

Rank, Name, Position, Age On 4/1/16, Projected Level For Start Of 2016

Atlanta Braves
1. Dansby Swanson, SS, 22, Low-A
2. Hector Olivera, 3B, 30, MLB
3. Aaron Blair, RHP, 23, Triple-A
4. Ozzie Albies, SS, 19, High-A
5. Sean Newcomb, LHP, 22, Double-A
6. Austin Riley, 3B, 18, Low-A
7. Mallex Smith, OF, 22, Triple-A
8. Max Fried, LHP, 22, High-A
9. Kolby Allard, LHP, 18, Rookie ball
10. Lucas Sims, RHP, Double-A

Overview:

While this system is as deep as any in terms of depth and name value, after Swanson, every prospect in the system leaves a lot to be desired in either safety or upside. Other outlets have ranked this as the best system in baseball, but it's not in the discussion for the top spot for fantasy purposes due to the lack of safe, high-upside players next to Swanson. I have long been of the opinion that among top-100 prospects, Albies may have the biggest gap between his real life value and fantasy value, as there is well below average power projection and so much of his value is tied up in his defense at shortstop. Newcomb is one of the most overrated prospects in the minors, as there is no evidence that he can offer even average command, and unless he takes a big step forward he has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who is a WHIP liability or a lights out reliever. Riley is a personal favorite of mine, as a prep slugger with big raw power and a questionable hit tool. He could shoot up or down lists as he gets tested this year at Low-A. Braxton Davidson, Rio Ruiz, Touki Toussaint, Tyrell Jenkins, Mike Soroka and Manny Banuelos could all reasonably be added to the back of this list based on personal preference. While there is a lot of depth on the pitching side, Blair is the only arm in the system that I would bet heavily on making a successful career for himself as a mid-rotation starter.

Most Upside:Dansby Swanson - Sometimes dynasty league owners are looking so hard for the next big thing that they look past someone like Swanson, whose overall tools could make him a superstar, even though he lacks plus power. He will stick at shortstop, move quickly through the system, hit for a high average, and offer double-digit homers with plus speed. Shortstops like that don't come around very often. Brendan Rodgers will be a popular first pick in dynasty leagues this year, but Swanson could beat him to the majors by a year or two, and the upside gap between the two players seems to be getting oversold.

Best Bet For 2016:Hector Olivera - This is a tricky player to rank, and truth be told, I don't consider him a prospect, even though he qualifies. At 30 years old, he may already be on the decline physically, but that works in his favor for 2016, as it makes no sense for the Braves to not have him develop in the majors. Olivera might hit .270 with 15-20 home runs this year. Owners shouldn't expect anything more than that, and if he hits .260 with 15 home runs, that's not very useful at 3B/OF in most mixed leagues. On the pitching side, Blair has a good case here, and Jenkins will join the rotation at some point in the first half as well.

Miami Marlins
1. Josh Naylor, 1B, 18, Low-A
2. Stone Garrett, OF, 20, Low-A
3. Tyler Kolek, RHP, 20, High-A
4. Brett Lilek, LHP, 22, Low-A
5. K.J. Woods, 1B, 20, High-A
6. Austin Dean, OF, 22, Double-A
7. Jarlin Garcia, LHP, 23, Double-A
8. Isael Soto, OF, 19, Low-A
9. Isaiah White, OF, 19, Low-A
10. Anfernee Seymour, SS, 20, Low-A

Overview:

This is not the worst system in baseball, but it's awfully close. There is not a top-100 prospect among this bunch, and the top-five names on the list have yet to play at High-A, so they are all very high-risk options. Naylor and Woods are a couple first-base-only types who would probably be better off in the AL playing DH. Garrett is very toolsy, but heading into his age-20 season he has yet to face full-season pitching. Kolek was a very high-risk option when he was drafted, and he has done little to shake that label. There are plenty of arms with less risk and similar upside in the lower levels. Lilek was exceptional in his pro debut after getting selected in the second round, but he won't be truly tested until he faces Double-A hitters, which may not happen until 2017. Dean isn't very exciting, but he can play and should contribute in the majors as a fourth outfielder in two years. The rest of the names wouldn't crack a top-300 prospect list, let alone a top-200.

Most Upside:Josh Naylor - With great power comes great responsibility, and this applies specifically to Naylor, as his 70-grade raw power can only be maximized if he can keep his weight in check. Even if he just maxes out at Prince Fielder's waistline that would be acceptable and a bit of an accomplishment. He has not played above rookie ball, and probably won't sniff High-A until 2017, so there is a lot of lead time here. That said, he has as much fantasy potential as any first base prospect in the minors, so he is a worthwhile hold in leagues where 100 prospects are rostered. This season should reveal a lot about where Naylor is with his approach, hit tool and diet/conditioning, because the power is unquestioned.

Best Bet For 2016:Jarlin Garcia - Honestly there's an extremely low probability that any prospect currently in the Marlins' system will make an impact in the big leagues this year. Kendry Flores will pitch in the big leagues, but he wasn't even good enough to crack the Marlins' top-10, so I'm not expecting him to be useful in fantasy this year or any year. J.T. Riddle, a 24-year-old shortstop, could theoretically play his way to the big leagues this year but he is barely a prospect. Garcia has pitched briefly at Double-A, so he could get on a roll and push his way to the majors in the second half, but he's still not worth a roster spot in any single-season leagues. Stay away. Stay far, far away.

New York Mets
1. Steven Matz, LHP, 24, MLB
2. Dominic Smith, 1B, 20, Double-A
3. Gavin Cecchini, SS, 22, Triple-A
4. Amed Rosario, SS, 20, Double-A
5. Wuilmer Becerra, OF, 21, High-A
6. Brandon Nimmo, OF, 23, Triple-A
7. Desmond Lindsay, OF, 19, Low-A
8. Marcos Molina, RHP, 21, Out for the season (Tommy John surgery)
9. Ali Sanchez, C, 19, Short season
10. Luis Guillorme, SS, 21, High-A

Overview:

The Mets traded and graduated a good amount of talent from the system in a push that led to a World Series appearance last year, and the system is now middling at best. That said, there are a couple really appealing pieces at the top in Matz and Smith. Cecchini is safe, yet unexciting. Rosario, Becerra and Nimmo have always offered the promise of significant upside, but only Becerra took a step forward last year. Were it not for Tommy John surgery at the end of last season, Molina may have ranked third on this list. Lindsay and Sanchez could both make big jumps up this list with strong 2016 campaigns. Additionally, a couple of 17-year-old shortstops who signed on July 2, Gregory Guerrero and Andres Gimenez, could really jump up this list with strong professional debuts this year.

Most Upside:Dominic Smith - I could see a case for Matz or Rosario here, but while I love Matz long-term, realistically his ceiling is a No. 2, and it's getting harder to project Rosario's game power ever showing up in a major way. The main selling point with Smith may be his high floor, thanks to a 70-grade hit tool, but he still has a high ceiling, as those doubles should start turning into more home runs with each successive season. He could be a .320 hitter with 20-25 homers in his second or third year in the majors, and that's worth a second-round pick in fantasy.

Best Bet For 2016:Steven Matz - The no doubt top pitching prospect for 2016, Matz is technically a No. 4 with the Mets, but he could pitch like a No. 2 in his first full season in The Show. The southpaw has a mid-90s fastball with a changeup that could be a second plus pitch and an average curveball rounds out the three-pitch mix. He also offers above average command. The one drawback is that after throwing just 141 innings last year, he may be capped around 175-180 this year, so the strikeouts probably won't top 200 until 2017. He should help out across the board in his age 24/25 season, and should only get better with time.

Philadelphia Phillies
1. J.P. Crawford, SS, 21, Triple-A
2. Nick Williams, OF, 22, Triple-A
3. Jake Thompson, RHP, 22, Triple-A
4. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, 23, Double-A
5. Franklyn Kilome, RHP, 20, Low-A
6. Cornelius Randolph, OF, 18, Low-A
7. Roman Quinn, OF, 22, Triple-A
8. Jorge Alfaro, C, 22, Double-A
9. Mark Appel, RHP, 23, Triple-A
10. Jhailyn Ortiz, 1B, Rookie ball

Overview:

This system is loaded with high-upside options at every level of the system. Only Crawford and Williams are advanced enough to be thought of as cornerstone prospects in dynasty leagues, but Thompson, Kilome, Randolph, Alfaro and Ortiz have immense potential, and Hoskins and Quinn have plenty of upside in their own right, especially from a fantasy standpoint. While guys like Crawford, Williams and Thompson could debut in the big leagues this year, 2017 will be the year when about half of the players on this list really start returning a hefty amount of fantasy value. With Aaron Nola, Maikel Franco and Aaron Altherr already in the fold, the future is certainly bright in the city of brotherly love. Andrew Knapp, Ben Lively, Carlos Tocci, Adonis Medina, Zach Eflin and Scott Kingery could have all made the top-10 over Appel and/or Ortiz, but I ranked Appel because he still has the name value to fetch a nice return in a trade if he gets off to a good start this season, and Ortiz's upside squashes everyone outside the top-8 on this list, with the possible exception of Medina. Thanks to an impressive combination of depth and high-upside pieces, the Phillies have a top-5 system for dynasty league purposes.

Most Upside:Nick Williams - Last spring he told me he thought he could go 30/30 someday in the big leagues, and he has the tools to back that up. What's scary is that 30/30 season could be accompanied by an average over .300. Of course, the odds of any of that actually happening are still fairly low, but at this point it wouldn't surprise anyone. His hit tool will carry him to a starting role, and he's sneaky good in the outfield, despite the reputation of being uninterested out there. It would not be surprising for Williams to be ranked as a top-5 fantasy prospect in the game at the All-Star break. Crawford is considered a top-5 fantasy prospect in many circles, but I feel that puts way too much emphasis on his floor, or it simply misreads how much of his real life value is tied up in his defense at shortstop.

Best Bet For 2016:J.P. Crawford - While Williams has more pure upside, Crawford might be more big-league ready this summer, and as a shortstop, the bar to clear for him to be a mixed league option is much lower. If everything breaks perfectly for him, he could offer Francisco Lindor-esque production in a half season, but it's also possible that he is held down until September, so I would caution against using a roster spot in him in most formats.

Washington Nationals
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP, 21, Double-A
2. Trea Turner, SS, 22, Triple-A
3. Victor Robles, OF, 18, Low-A
4. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 22, Double-A
5. Wilmer Difo, 2B/SS, 23, Double-A
6. Erick Fedde, RHP, 23, High-A
7. A.J. Cole, RHP, 24, Triple-A
8. Anderson Franco, 3B, 18, Low-A
9. Austin Voth, RHP, 23, Triple-A
10. Osvaldo Abreu, SS, 21, High-A

Overview:

This is another system flooded with high-upside options in the top-10, but unlike the Phillies, Washington is not flush with depth. Giolito is obviously the big prize among the pitchers, as he is the rare pitching prospect I feel comfortable ranking as a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues. The system offers a couple other high-upside arms in Lopez and Fedde. There is some bullpen risk with Lopez, and Fedde has made just 14 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he could finish the season as a top-50 prospect with a solid season at High-A. Robles' stock soared last season as he demonstrated his potential as an across-the-board superstar in center field, and he could finish 2016 as a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues. Franco could be this year's Robles, as a guy who starts the season off most top prospect lists and enters next year in the top-50. Difo will no doubt be the forgotten man in some circles, as the Daniel Murphy signing essentially blocks him at second base, and if Turner can reach his perceived floor, Difo has nowhere to play. If the Nationals traded him, Difo could be a very similar option to Ketel Marte in Seattle, offering a high average and 30-plus steals, so he remains a top-100 fantasy prospect with that hope in mind. Cole and Voth are admittedly not very exciting options, but they are very close to the big leagues and could offer No. 4 starter production as soon as this year. Abreu is not quite as exciting as Franco, but he's another guy in the lower levels with the potential to jump up lists this year.

Most Upside:Lucas Giolito - This is what it's all about. When Giolito makes his big league debut this year it will be appointment television, and he could turn in one of those legendary debut performances that set off a flurry of hyperbolic tweets and blog posts. Indeed, he might be Jose Fernandez's top competition for the honor of unseating Clayton Kershaw as the top fantasy starting pitcher in 2018 or 2019. The big question everyone wants answered is when he will debut in the Nation's capital. Prospects like Jose Berrios and Tyler Glasnow should beat him to the majors, but Giolito may not be far behind. Cole might get the first chance to replace a struggling Tanner Roark or as an injury replacement, but the Nationals could quickly grow tired of seeing mediocre outings every fifth day. If Giolito is commanding his pitches at Triple-A, there will be no sense in wasting bullets in the minors. Look for a June or July debut in the Nationals rotation, at which point he could offer SP2 production the rest of the way.

Best Bet For 2016:Trea Turner - There is some concern about when he debuts this year, but Danny Espinosa is, and always has been destined to be a bench bat/defensive replacement on a contender. What casual observers may not know about Turner is that he has much more upside on the base paths than his minor league numbers indicate. When he gets comfortable, 30-plus steals should be a breeze for him over a full season, and I would take the over on 20 steals if he debuts in late-May. The batting average should always be at least league average, and he could occasionally flirt with .290. Nobody really knows what to expect from him long-term in the power department, but that won't be a big part of his game in 2016. An injury to one of Murphy, Espinosa or Anthony Rendon means a callup for Turner, and he could also get that callup via struggles on Espinosa's end. Either way, it should happen in the first half.