This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
All 30 teams are included in the main slate, which gets underway at 7:05 pm ET, per usual. Humid weather is all over the east coast, which can help balls carry and also lead to pop-up showers, but as of Tuesday morning, the only game with a real weather threat is Seattle at Minnesota.
Pitching Breakdown
Cleveland's Trevor Bauer ($10,800) is one of only two arms priced in five figures on a slate that looks like an obvious fade for pitching overall. Bauer is in good form, going for 30+ FDP in three straight starts thanks to striking out at least seven in each of those outings, and he should be a cash game favorite against a Reds offense that has a .296 wOBA against righties.
Washington's Patrick Corbin ($10,300) follows. He's allowed three runs or more in three of his last four starts, never fanning more than seven in that stretch. What he may lose in current form and the White Sox's middling 24.8 strikeout rate against lefties, he gains with the ChiSox having just a .119 ISO, presumably limiting Corbin's downside.
I'm personally not a fan of Cincinnati's Luis Castillo ($9,800), who gets a surging Indians offense that has scored at least five runs in five of six games, winning four times. Perhaps he duels with Bauer, but Castillo has topped six Ks just once in his last four, and his lack of control (4.3 BB/9) prevents him from working deep into contests, further limiting his upside. He's not a full fade, but low exposure is the thought.
No line was available at submission time, but the Dodgers figure to be heavy favorites, putting Kenta Maeda ($8,700) in play as a likely winner.
Chris Paddack ($9,300) look like an attractive option at a modest discount, at least on the surface. He faces a bad Giants offense that has a .285 wOBA and 78 wRC+ against righties, but they fan only 21.7 percent of the time, and Paddack has allowed 14 hits and 10 runs over his last 9.1 innings. NYY's James Paxton ($9,600) is in similarly poor form, having not gone more than 4.2 innings in any of his last three, though he may be forced to work longer depending on the results of the Yanks' first game of a doubleheader Tuesday. The Mets strike out 25.8 percent of the time against lefties, but also rank seventh with a .334 wOBA.
So if you don't like the top-priced options, where do you look for pitching? Dakota Hudson ($8,000) looks like a rock-solid option, though highly obvious. He's turned in quality starts in five straight and six of seven, and has been worth at last 17 FDP in all but two starts all season. He'll face a Miami side that ranks dead last with a .282 wOBA and .112 ISO against righties.
Mike Foltynewicz ($7,300), Chris Archer ($7,200) and Jakob Junis ($6,800) are names at least worth considering in the bottom tier of arms. Foltynewicz continues to be victimized by homers, allowing 15 through 44.1 frames, so I wouldn't question you for stacking against him. He's also struck out 20 in his last 17.0 innings though, and his 4.90 xFIP, while not good, is still better than his 5.89 ERA. Archer faces Folty here in a rematch from last week, where he fanned six in six innings, earning his first quality start in seven outings. The price is low enough that we can take a few chances on a repeat. Junis has been worth 27 FDP or more in three of four starts and five of eight, has fanned 19 in his past 16.2 innings, and faces a Tigers offense that strikes out 26.3 percent of the time while posting a .286 wOBA. This sets up a bit too obviously, but at the price, I'm not sure it matters as there's so little risk.
Key Value/Chalk
Starting with the obvious: the Rockies are at home against a lefty, which screams "load up". Cubs' starter Jose Quintana ($6,500) hasn't been nearly as bad as this price suggests, and he is allowing a .385 wOBA and 6.38 FIP to righties on the road. Nolan Arenado ($4,700) figures to be a cash staple, while Ian Desmond ($3,500) has a .313 ISO and offers a cheap entry into this matchup. Lefties Ryan McMahon ($3,400, .437 wOBA, .293 ISO) and David Dahl ($3,900, .386 wOBA) present well if you ignore Quintana's .249 wOBA allowed to lefties.
The other side of this game is equally worth building around, as the Cubs will look to get revenge against Peter Lambert ($6,500), who allowed one run while striking out nine in his MLB debut last week in Chicago. Building around Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) and his .409 wOBA and .291 ISO makes sense, while Carlos Gonzalez ($3,300) has a .267 ISO in his limited return to the NL, and could have extra drive facing his former team.
The ball was jumping out of SunTrust Park on Monday, with the Braves and Pirates combining for 20 runs, 23 hits and seven homers. We touched on Foltynewicz's struggles to keep the ball in the park, so prospecting for power from the Pirates is wise. Josh Bell ($4,500) leads the way, while Starling Marte ($3,700) hit two out last night, and Gregory Polanco ($3,400) took Folty deep last week. Archer has also struggled to keep the ball down, allowing 1.84 HR/9, and he could be forced to work deep into the contest with the Pirates bullpen needing to go 7.1 innings Monday. Ronald Acuna ($4,100) has homered in consecutive games and four of his last six, while Freddie Freeman ($4,300) has gone deep in four of seven.
The Dodgers figure to be very popular here after the Angels' opener departs and gives way to Felix Pena ($6,300), who has allowed 10 runs in his last 7.0 innings, and the bats here are surprisingly not cost prohibitive. Cody Bellinger ($4,700) leads the way with a .475 wOBA, while Joc Pederson ($3,700), Justin Turner ($3,200) and Corey Seager ($3,600) all work as well. A stack is absolutely in play, but it's going to be a chalky option, hence the inclusion here and not below.
Stacks
Padres vs. Tyler Beede (Giants)
Eric Hosmer (2B - $3,000), Franmil Reyes (OF - $3,200), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS - $3,600)
Beede simply isn't a major-league pitcher, allowing 16 runs in 17.2 innings, including a .491 wOBA to lefties. That immediately puts Hosmer into play, as he's cheap and at a secondary position, and his .343 wOBA isn't terrible. Reyes brings this stack some power potential, owning a .322 ISO to go with a .355 wOBA, while Tatis is still fairly priced after returning from injury and boasts a .372 wOBA and 135 wRC+ against righties, both team highs among the regulars.
Twins vs. Mike Leake (Mariners)
Jorge Polanco (SS - $4,000), Miguel Sano (3B - $3,500), Mitch Garver (C - $3,300)
Leake has struggled on the road, allowing a 5.57 ERA, 7.00 FIP and .406 wOBA to righties. Polanco is the best of six Twins who have wOBAs north of .360, boasting a .426 number to which he adds a 170 wRC+ and .287 ISO while fanning only 14.4 percent of the time. Sano brings big power potential with a .395 wOBA, while Garver betters that number at .406. Obviously, pay attention to the Twins gameday lineup, as they have a lot of interchangeable parts. Nelson Cruz ($3,500), Jason Castro ($2,700) and Max Kepler ($3,800) are also viable options.
Nationals vs. Manny Banuelos (White Sox)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $4,400), Howie Kendrick (1B - $3,000), Brian Dozier (2B - $2,700)
Banuelos looks set to start over an injured and listed Dylan Covey, and assuming FanDuel makes this switch and confirms as such, all Nationals bats are in play, as Banuelos is allowing a .413 wOBA to lefties and a .405 wOBA to righties. We can save a few bucks here too, going with a bit of a joes and schmoes stack with Rendon leading the way thanks to his .433 wOBA, 170 wRC+ and .300 ISO. Kendrick and Dozier actually have better splits against lefties, with Kendrick going .447/179/.241 and Dozier .479/200/.367. Dozier has quietly put up double-digit FDP in four of his last five. Whomever is behind the dish between Yan Gomes ($2,200) and Kurt Suzuki ($2,800) would also be an option.
