This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
For the first time in a few days, weather shouldn't be an issue Tuesday. There also aren't any aces on the slate so it's likely a value play will put in a big game and decide some GPPs. The best strategy may be to ride with a couple mid-range options in good situations.
PITCHING
There won't be many that spend on Kenta Maeda ($10,000) with just 20 strikeouts in his first four starts, though that also makes him a viable GPP play. But if you're looking for a GPP pitcher, I'd rather turn to Patrick Corbin ($8,800) at Coors Field. Sure, Corbin could get shelled, but the Rockies are striking out at a high rate against southpaws with a 27.3 K%. I liked Kyle Freeland, but due to a blister, Chad Bettis ($5,800) is getting the start and he's not in consideration.
It'd be reasonable to look at Zach Eflin ($9,400) for cash games in hopes he repeats what he did in his first two starts (12 IP, 1 ER) and not last two starts (17 HA, 8 ER). The good news is that the Mets have a below average .162 ISO and .319 wOBA against righties.
There aren't many hands-down great choices on this slate so there's unlikely to be one or two that are complete chalk. Hector Velazquez ($6,400) could be a popular choice since he faces the Tigers and their .279 wOBA against righties, but he never had more than 59 pitches in eight spot starts last season. I'd rather gamble on Trent Thornton ($7,000), who at least showed potential in his first couple starts, allowing only five hits in 10.2 IP. He's struggled against better teams, but the Giants aren't in that category with a league worst .257 wOBA against righty arms.
I'd also throw Erik Swanson ($7,700) into the mix since he faces the Padres, who have a poor .288 wOBA against righty hurlers, as well as a higher 26.7 K%. He gave up just two hits in six innings against the Indians in his first start and if he can strikeout a couple more batters, he could be one of the better plays on the slate.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
Due to the amount of bad pitchers going against bad teams, there should be a slew of value plays on this slate. As usual, a lot of people will flock to Colorado, no matter how inconsistent the bats have been. Corbin doesn't have good numbers against the Rockies with Nolan Arenado ($5,100) and Charlie Blackmon ($4,900) combining for 11 extra-base hits in 80 at-bats against him. That said, Corbin wasn't terribly shelled in two starts at Coors last year, allowing only five runs in 10.2 innings. Bettis was dropped to the bullpen after struggling in his first three starts so the Nationals may be the better bet even though Anthony Rendon ($5,600) is dealing with an elbow issue. Ryan Zimmerman ($4,500) found some life Sunday, while Wilmer Difo ($4,000) is the value play in the lineup.
I'd rather spend money elsewhere like on Mitch Haniger ($5,400) against lefty Nick Margevicius or on a Houston bat (George Springer, $5,400; Jose Altuve, $5,000) against Michael Pineda. Those are the best matchups for high-end hitters, though Christian Yelich ($5,800) could go off against Daniel Ponce de Leon, who is making a spot start for the Cardinals.
There isn't a ton of value in the White Sox-Orioles game due to a high over/under, but guys like Welington Castillo ($3,700) and Rio Ruiz ($3,600) still come at a decent rate for a good matchup. Ivan Nova gave up a .353 wOBA to lefty bats last season and Andrew Cashner was bad against everyone with worse than a .360 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate.
Given New York's injuries, there's also a decent amount of value against Chris Stratton, who has picked up where he left last season when he had a .357 wOBA allowed to lefties. Even then, it's not like he has success against righty bats. Austin Romine ($3,400) and Gio Urshela ($3,100) are stretches, while Mike Ford ($3,600) and DJ LeMahieu ($3,700) make a little more sense. Mike Tauchman ($4,100) could end up being chalk since he's still fairly cheap and in a plus matchup.
Maeda is still working to get back into form and I think any lefty can be considered against him after he had a wretched .348 wOBA allowed against them last year. Jason Heyward ($4,200) will be popular because of those numbers, but Anthony Rizzo ($4,000) will come around at some point after last year's .378 wOBA versus righties. Daniel Descalso ($3,700) is the cheap cash play, while Kyle Schwarber ($3,600) is worth testing in GPP waters.
STACKS
I already touched on a couple Astros and it only makes sense to turn it into a stack against a pitcher that gives up homers. Pineda has given up three home runs and nine runs in his last two starts against the Blue Jays and Tigers. When he last pitched in 2017, he allowed 1.88 HR/9 to lefties and 1.86 HR/9 to righties. Of course, their top bats cost a lot with Springer, Altuve and Alex Bregman ($4,800) almost impossible to roster on the same team. The best route will be to mix Josh Reddick ($3,900) in with a variety of guys, as he leads the Astros in BABIP (.366) against righty arms. That could mean Aledmys Diaz ($3,900) and Robinson Chirinos ($3,800) or Yuli Gurriel ($4,000) for a few extra bucks.
The Mariners may be less popular with a smaller over/under, but they also get a good draw against Margevicius, who gave up five runs last outing, his worst performance of his rookie campaign. The Mariners also have the best ISO (.328) and wOBA (.415) against southpaws, though only in 150 total plate appearances. Haniger is the first choice, but you can still find some potency behind him with Domingo Santana ($4,700), Edwin Encarnacion ($4,600) and Daniel Vogelbach ($4,800). It's a little less certain lower in the lineup, but Tom Murphy ($4,100) has showed some power surrounded by Ryon Healy ($4,200) and Tim Beckham ($4,100).
The Rays have a couple injuries, but I think Homer Bailey is ready for a bad outing. He's coming off two solid performances after getting shelled in his first two starts and he gave up a terrible wOBA to both lefties (.394) and righties (.362) last season. Brandon Lowe ($4,800), Tommy Pham ($4,800) and Yandy Diaz ($4,400) is the group that will take him deep, but fitting Joey Wendle ($3,500) somewhere in the squad could be a must given his price. Ji-Man Choi ($4,100) and Kevin Kiermaier ($4,400) also present formidable lefty bats, though the order is unknown with Austin Meadows out and Choi dealing with a calf injury.
