This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Twenty-eight of 30 teams are included in Friday's main slate, where there's an abundance of pitching options.
Pitching Breakdown
Shane Bieber ($12,200) leads a whopping six arms priced in five-figures. He's coming off of his worst showing in some time, and faces a Phillies lineup that can be feast or famine. Bieber's floor seems safe with only two games under 20 DrafktKings points (DKP) since July 30, but with so many other options, the price may be too much to stomach.
Jacob deGrom ($11,600) follows, and looks like a preferred option for floor and ceiling. He's gone seven innings in nine of his last 10, topping 18 DKP just as frequently and has allowed only one run over his last 14 innings, striking out 18. Cincinnati's 24.0 percent fan rate isn't low enough to be a deterrent. He's my preferred cash game anchor, though a matchup against Luis Castillo ($10,500) is likely to limit his run support. Castillo has topped 20 DKP in seven of 10, and this has all the makings of a pitchers duel with a run total of 7.5. Taking both and going cheap on bats isn't an awful idea.
Veterans Charlie Morton ($11,100), Clayton Kershaw ($10,800) and Mike Minor ($10,100) round out the top pricing tier, all against familiar division opponents. Morton faces a Red Sox lineup against whom he's allowed 19 hits and 11 runs against over 23.2 innings, though he has struck out 27. Kershaw isn't in the best of form, topping 20.1 DKP just once in his last five starts, and allowed five runs to the Rockies over seven innings in their lone meeting this year, though that was at Coors Field. Minor has allowed 11 runs over 11 innings against Oakland, including seven runs over five frames in his last start. All three offer GPP upside, but with far more volatile floors, presenting great cash game risk.
The 9k tier has some intriguing options to save on over the three names just mentioned. Zack Greinke ($9,800) has righted himself over his last two starts, allowing only one run and eight hits over 12 innings and gets the injury-laden Angels. Mike Foltynewicz ($9,400) is surging, averaging 26.3 DKP in his last two and faces the light-hitting Giants. Both check in as huge favorites, with the Astros sitting at (-350) and Braves at (-200). J.A. Happ ($9,200) also has a plus matchup against Toronto, has averaged 21.0 DKP over his last four, and the Yankees check in as (-285) favorites.
Anibal Sanchez ($8,100) figures to be incredibly popular as a second option for cash, or possibly even a GPP No. 1 if you're looking to save. He's faced the Marlins three times, allowing six runs over 16.1 innings, striking out 14. The Nationals are in must win mode chasing a playoff spot, and sit as (-200) favorites.
The bottom tier doesn't seem to offer great value. Drew Smyly ($6,800) has been somewhat serviceable and has GPP upside, averaging 21.8 DKP over his last three and topping 20 points four times in his last 10 starts. Eric Lauer ($7,600) gets a slumping Diamondbacks' offense in pitcher-friendly Petco Park and has averaged 14.4 DKP over his last four, including an implosion for -3.6 DKP at Coors Field.
Key Chalk/Value
Yankee bats against Jacob Waguespack ($6,300) will be popular to build around. Waguespack has allowed a long ball in four straight, not lasting more than 4.1 innings in that stretch while allowing 14 runs. He's allowing a .374 wOBA to righties, which gives us no shortage of options. If we get confirmation of a full nine innings from Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500), he clearly presents the most value in the lineup, seeing a $900 price decrease from Thursday. Gio Urshela ($4,600) also offers a cheaper in to the lineup.
Houston bats likely will be similarly popular against Jaime Barria ($5,200). He's really struggled on the road, allowing a 7.93 ERA, 5.57 xFIP and .417 wOBA to righties. Recently activated Carlos Correa ($4,900) and Yuli Gurriel ($4,800) are easier ins to the lineup over George Springer ($5,600) or Alex Bregman ($5,400).
The only other game on the slate with a double-digit run total is Seattle at Baltimore, which seems to offer nice value as a game stack. Felix Hernandez ($5,000) is coming off of a resurgent effort, but has a 9.19 road ERA and 5.22 xFIP, allowing a .512 wOBA and 1.274 OPS to lefties. As such, Anthony Santander ($4,200) and Dwight Smith ($3,900) look like nice bargain plays. The Orioles will turn to Aaron Brooks ($4,800) after Richard Bleier ($4,000) opens. Brooks is allowing a .383 wOBA and .930 OPS to lefties at Camden Yards, which should drum up interest in Kyle Seager ($4,400) or Daniel Vogelbach ($4,200), and I wouldn't ignore Kyle Lewis ($4,100) just because he's a righty.
It's difficult to ignore Brewer bats against Steven Brault ($4,300), who has allowed 15 runs and six homers over his last 8.0 innings, but he's faired well previously against Milwaukee, allowing only six runs and striking out 20 over 20.1 innings to date.
Stacks
Dodgers vs. Peter Lambert (Rockies)
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF - $5,500), Max Muncy (1B/2B - $4,500), Joc Pederson (1B/OF - $4,200)
Lambert has faced the Dodgers three times, allowing 24 hits, six homers and 14 runs over 11.1 innings. He has a 6.69 ERA and 5.34 FIP away from Coors Field, allowing a .464 wOBA and 1.116 OPS to lefties in the process. That seems to make Bellinger worth every penny, while we can take a pick from any number of other lefties in the Dodger lineup. Muncy and Pederson have both taken Lambert deep previously, giving them a slight edge over Corey Seager ($4,300). Matt Beaty ($4,000) is also in play if in the lineup.
Braves vs. Tyler Beede (Giants)
Freddie Freeman (1B - $4,900), Ozzie Albies (2B - $4,800), Nick Markakis (OF - $3,900)
Beede has been sound over his last two starts, not allowing a run, but still has a 5.27 road xFIP, allowing a .386 wOBA and .931 OPS to lefties. Freeman is in a power drought but barreled the ball well Thursday only to see the ball not carry as usual in Suntrust. Albies is known for being much better as a righty but has 16 hits over his last 10 games. Markakis' spot in the five-hole affords him ample run-producing opportunities, and he has hit safely in every game since activation, nine total in five games. If value hunting, Brian McCann ($3,300) and Matt Joyce ($3,800) both figure to get starts here.
White Sox vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Yoan Moncada (3B - $4,800), Leury Garcia (OF - $3,700), Jose Abreu (1B - $4,500)
Zimmermann has a 6.84 home ERA, where he's allowing a 1.108 OPS and .459 wOBA to lefties. That puts Moncada immediately into play even with some shaky BvP numbers in limited exposure. Garcia gets the nod here as well as one of the few other left-handed options in the White Sox lineup given Zimmermann's struggles. Given that lack of opposite-handed bats, Abreu lands here for power potential and solid history against Zimmermann, going 11-of-26 (.423) with a 1.198 OPS.
