Baseball Draft Kit: Building a Winning Pitching Staff

Another year, another Dodgers World Series loss, and another year of emerging and declining starting pitchers. Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher in the game, Aaron Nola became an ace and Blake Snell took his swinging-strike rate from 10.8% to an elite 15.1% and won the AL Cy Young Award. Each year it seemingly gets more difficult to say anything new in terms of pitcher valuation, but in fantasy leagues, it remains critical to be able to look at more than the end-of-year statistics on the back of a baseball card. Fortunately, we now realize that win/loss record is a team-dependent statistic that provides no real predictive value for pitchers. If you've picked up this magazine, there's a high likelihood that you are familiar with FIP, K/9, HR/FB rate, and BABIP. In this piece, I'll share what I do to put together my starting pitching rankings.

Here are five things I consider in setting my starting pitching draft board:

1 ADVANCED METRICS

2 YOUTH AND UPSIDE

3 PREVIOUS YEAR FINISH

4 PITCHERS RETURNING FROM INJURY

5 FASTBALL VELOCITY

ADVANCED METRICS

All else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes. On occasion, however, perhaps due to factors outside their control (poor bullpen, bad luck on balls in play), some of those pitchers have high prior-year ERAs. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) incorporates strikeouts, walks and home runs while stripping out the randomness of balls in play. Targeting pitchers with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP could uncover sleepers. Here are the top-10 largest positive ERA/FIP spreads from 2017:

Last year my pick here was Danny Salazar, as he had a 3.48 FIP and 4.28 ERA, but he had good stuff (95 mph fastball) right? Salazar of course missed the entire season with a shoulder, but previous articles identified Rick Porcello as a 2016 option (he went on to win the Cy Young) and Robbie Ray prior to his 2017 breakout season. This year I'm going with Gray. Historically, Gray has been slightly better at home than away from Coors Field, and guys like Marquez and Kyle Freeland have shown that pitchers can have success at home. Gray admitted that he dealt with some health issues in 2018 and plans on bulking up this winter. I'd take a flier.

On the flipside, a negative ERA-FIP indicates an element of luck and potential regression the following year.  Here is that top-10:

Last season I avoided Dallas Keuchel despite his 2.90 ERA in 2017, as Keuchel had a 3.83 FIP that year and went on to post a 3.74 ERA in 2018. This year I'm likely avoiding Snell, which may sound odd given his breakout year. He's not a sub-2.00 ERA guy, and with early rankings having him as a third-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues, I just can't see myself having too many shares.

YOUTH AND UPSIDE OVER SAFETY

To win in fantasy, risks are required. Sure, it's nice to have "safe" pitchers along the lines of a Mike Leake, but obviously you aren't going to win your league if you have too many of them. I want to take fliers on young pitchers with gaudy minor-league strikeout numbers. Last year I recommended the likes of Godley, Sean Newcomb, Giolito, Luis Castillo, and Walker Buehler here. A mixed bag, but the upside was worth it. This year, I'll be targeting these five young arms:

Julio Urias, Dodgers - I expect the LA rotation to be full come Opening Day, leaving Urias to open in Triple-A and build up innings after 2017 shoulder surgery. We barely saw him in 2018, but when we did, he impressed, tossing 10.1 innings while allowing just two runs and recording a 12:1 K:BB.

Josh James, Astros - James could in theory slot in as a late-inning reliever this year, but I think he'll continue to be developed as a starter. He flashed a 97-plus mph fastball last season while recording a 2.35 ERA in 23 big-league innings. In 136 total innings (minors included), James posted an impressive 13.2 K/9.

Shane Bieber, Indians - MLB hitters batted .285 against him in 2018, but he held minor-league hitters to a .193 mark. One has to hope his .363 BABIP trends down. With his elite K/BB (9.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 with the Indians), the upside remains.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays - Glasnow bumped his average fastball velocity from 94.6 to 96.6 mph year-over-year, and though his 4.27 MLB ERA wasn't great, he showed improved control (4.3 BB/9 vs. 2017's 6.4) and bumped his K/9 from 8.1 to 11.0. He also finished strong (2.96 ERA in his last four starts) and from Aug. 1 on, Glasnow's BB/9 was a solid 3.1.

Alex Reyes, Cardinals - A wild card for sure, Reyes has pitched just four big-league innings since 2016 due to Tommy John and lat surgeries. When 100 percent, however, the upside is massive as evidenced by his placement on recent prospect lists as well as his 12.4 career minor-league K/9.

HOW GUYS FINISHED THE PREVIOUS YEAR

Here we look at 2018 first-half versus second-half FIP to try and identify pitchers who finished strong and who could carry that "momentum" into 2019.

This analysis last year led me to Blake Snell and Dylan Bundy, so while it's useful, it's far from perfect. Here we see Snell again, but I'd rather own guys like Eovaldi, Hendricks and Junis. Junis is especially intriguing, as in his last 10 starts, the right-hander posted a 2.95 ERA and 58:8 K:BB in 61 innings. He also had a 10.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in Triple-A back in 2017, so there's at least somewhat of a track record. I'm still somewhat optimistic on Giolito, but my enthusiasm there is waning.

PITCHERS RETURNING FROM INJURY

These guys come with different levels of risk, but that risk could drive their draft-day prices down to a point where they become nice buy lows.  Just don't have too many of them on your roster at once.

Michael Pineda, Twins - Pineda has missed significant parts of multiple seasons, including all of 2018 following Tommy John surgery. That said, he is still just 29 and the owner of excellent career peripherals (9.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9).

Alex Reyes, Cardinals - We covered him earlier, but make sure you keep an eye on his usage this spring.

Yu Darvish, Cubs - Darvish, fresh off signing a six-year, $126 million deal, got off to an inauspicious start last year, as the right-hander managed just 40 innings of 4.95 ERA ball before a shoulder injury ended his season in May. He also underwent "minor" elbow surgery in September, but is expected to be ready for spring training. With an 11.0 career K/9, he could be a decent buy-low.

Drew Smyly, Rangers - An AL-only guy at best right now, Smyly hasn't logged a big-league inning since 2016. Still just 29, Smyly is hoping he can rebound with Texas and show flashes of his 2014 form (152 innings, 3.24 ERA).

Jimmy Nelson, Brewers - There are lots of unknowns with his shoulder at press time, but Nelson had a career year in 2017 (3.49 ERA, 199 strikeouts).

Brent Honeywell, Rays - Honeywell had Tommy John surgery in February of 2018, so he should be ready in short order. Long one of baseball's top pitching prospects, he should have a spot in the big-league rotation once he's considered fully healthy.

FASTBALL VELOCITY

Velocity is not the be-all and end-all, but it's been shown to help, particularly with missing bats. It seemed like everyone was throwing harder, but that's certainly not the case, as seen in guys like Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez, both of whom failed to duplicate their prior seasons while suffering a decline in velocity. Here are the pitchers with at least 80 innings in both 2017 and 2018 who improved by at least 1.0 mph:

A few comments on these arms:

Seth Lugo, Mets - Exactly duplicating his innings total (101.1) from 2017, Lugo improved his ERA from 4.71 to 2.66 and his WHIP from 1.37 to 1.08. Lugo won't close in 2019, but there's still a shred of hope that he can start, and even if not, he's good enough to be useful in deep leagues.

Zack Wheeler, Mets - It all came together last year for the former top prospect, as not only did he throw harder, Wheeler was also more accurate with a 2.7 BB/9 (4.2 in 2017). He could take another step forward in 2019.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs - Hendricks has seen his ERA go from 2.13 to 3.03 to 3.44 the past three seasons, but encouragingly he did regain some lost velocity last year and still posted an excellent 2.0 BB/9. He's not posting another 2.13 ERA season anytime soon, but low-3.00s is possible.

Mike Foltynewicz, Braves - Velocity wasn't the only reason for his 2.85 ERA (4.79 in 2017), but it didn't hurt. Foltynewicz's 0.84 HR/9 was by far a career best, so if he can maintain that and improve his control, another step forward in 2019 isn't out of the question.

Kyle Gibson, Twins - The 2009 first-round pick rode an improved fastball to a career-best 3.62 ERA. Unfortunately, his control (3.6 BB/9) regressed for the third straight year, but if he can get a handle on that in 2019, Gibson could net a nice multi-year deal as a free agent next winter.

This article appears in the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.