After a week-long hiatus, the UFC returns with a 13-fight card full of ways for bettors and DFS players to make a profit. We will break down every fight on the slate, including a former title challenger with a winnable matchup and a Lil Monster who will look to upset the apple cart as a sizeable underdog. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Gilbert Burns ($7,500)
It's not often that I feel a line should be flipped entirely, but it's unclear how an aggressive wrestler and submission grappler like Sean Brady will get the better of Burns. Aside from the fact that he is one of the physically strongest fighters in the division, "Durinho" is also an accomplished BJJ black belt with tremendous power in his hands. Given that Brady was overwhelmed and finished by the relatively light-fisted Belal Muhammad, it seems likely that Burns will be able to use his many advantages to find a finish at some point.
Rong Zhu ($8,900)
Zhu and Chris Padilla are both committed grapplers, but Zhu should be the physically stronger fighter and have a bit more power in his hands. This will go a long way in a fight where each competitor will be looking to bring the fight to the floor. Zhu will also be the better boxer from space, which should make this his fight to lose, even though real danger exists across the cage.
Gabriel Santos ($8,800)
The combination of athleticism, kickboxing skills, and the ability to wrestle makes Santos one of my favorite plays on the slate under $9,000. Yi Zha is a fighter who will continue to spam takedown attempts, but these become more labored and ineffective as the fight wears on. Santos is a strong fighter with four submissions to his name, so Zha will need to be careful even when he gets the fight where he wants it. The Chinese fighter has a style that may play well on the regional scene, but he will need to add some layers to his game if he wants to beat skilled fighters at this level.
Nathan Fletcher ($8,300)
Zygimantas Ramaska is a powerful striker, but it's interesting that he has spent his last three fights (at least) competing in an organization that uses a ring instead of a cage. This could put him at a disadvantage when it comes to grappling against the fence, and Fletcher will try to get a takedown from the opening bell. We have seen from his days in Cage Warriors that Fletcher doesn't tend to slow down in fights, which squarely gives him an edge in a bout where both men will be on short notice. This fight was supposed to occur during the last UFC card, but it was called off after the slate lock. While that may put a sour taste in the mouths of prospective owners, they should not shy away from Fletcher, who has logged seven finishes among his eight wins.
Trevor Peek ($8,200)
This will be my first time ever picking Peek, as I find his whirlwind style difficult to trust against most opponents. Yanal Ashmouz is about as sloppy as Peek but without the constant offense meant to drown an opponent. We also know that the 29-year-old is nearly impossible to finish, even when incredibly tired. With all this in mind, I have to bet that Peek will be able to outlast the big power of Ashmouz by not allowing him the space to find his shots.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Andre Petroski UNDER 47.5 Significant Strikes, Natalia Silva OVER 69.5 Significant Strikes, and Steve Garcia OVER 26.5 Significant Strikes
Petroski came into the UFC as something of a tireless finisher but has opted for control in recent fights, racking up at least nine minutes of control time in two of his last three wins. This will work to hinder the significant strike total, as will the fact that Dylan Budka is a physically strong grappler in his own right.
As an agile out-fighter, Silva should be able to dance around Jessica Andrade and sting her with strikes from bell to bell. While this may temporarily be interrupted by clinching against the cage, Silva is a good enough clinch fighter to get herself back to space more often than not. It should also be noted that Andrade hardly ever attempts to wrestle at this point in her career, having secured just two takedowns in her last six fights.
Garcia has quietly become one of the better knockout artists in the organization, as all five of his UFC victories have come before the third round. While he has rarely fought long enough to surpass this total, Kyle Nelson is incredibly tough, having only been finished three times in 21 professional fights. While I do think a knockout materializes again, Nelson should be able to sling leather with Garcia long enough to hit our over.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Isaac Dulgarian OVER 4.0 Minutes of Fight Time, and Cody Durden OVER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time
It is downright mystifying how a fighter like Dulgarian became a (-3000) favorite on the betting line. That's not to say that he shouldn't win, but "The Midwest Choppa" recently underwent his first loss in just his second fight in the promotion. This may indicate that he will not be the force he has been on the regional scene despite being a dominant wrestler. Brendon Marotte was swept up by the active hurricane that is Terrance McKinney in his first UFC bout, but Dulgarian is nowhere near as dynamic or powerful as "T.Wrecks."
This is another fight made on short notice because a fighter had to be pulled from the bout, which seems to be a UFC specialty of late. Durden is a strong wrestler with power in his hands, but despite his reputation as a chinny fighter, Matt Schnell has been able to go to war with some of the hardest hitters in the flyweight division. He will also be able to use his jiujitsu to keep himself safe when taken to the ground. This should help melt minutes off the clock.
Bets to Consider
Felipe dos Santos (+150)
Andre Lima has imposed his will on fighters while damaging them with leg kicks, but he will face a three-inch reach disadvantage against Dos Santos, which will make it tougher for him to get on the inside. It is also the case that Lima can sometimes throw those kicks without setup, which will allow "Lipe Detona" to land hard counter shots. If all else fails, Dos Santos should be able to find his advantage on the mat, as he has notched three of his eight wins by submission.
Vanessa Demopoulos (+250)
Jaqueline Amorim's UFC resume isn't very reassuring when it comes to future prospects, as she has dominant wins over two fighters she could bully, while her lone loss came against Sam Hughes, who despite her strength, has never been anyone's idea of a contender in the division. Demopoulos is a well-rounded fighter with good, crisp, boxing who has never been finished in 16 professional fights. Amorim is talented, but she does seem to need the right kind of matchup to thrive, while Demopoulos has wins over physically strong fighters like Jinh Yu Frey.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 97 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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