This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 1 for UFC Vegas 76. The main event sees top-10 middleweight Sean Strickland take on unranked Abusupiyan Magomedov.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Sean Strickland (26-5) vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-4-1)
When this fight was made, I didn't understand it. I still don't. Simply put, I'm am shocked to see Sean Strickland be only a -150 favorite here.
Strickland has proven he is a top-level middleweight and arguably beat Jared Cannonier back in December, who is now ranked third. He has beaten the likes of Brendan Allen, Nassourdine Imavov, Jack Hermansson and Uriah Hall, among others.
Magomedov, meanwhile, is just 1-0 in the UFC and knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in his UFC debut in 19 seconds. Although it was a good performance, Stoltzfus was 1-3 in the UFC entering that fight, and just three fights ago, Magomedov was knocked out by Louis Taylor in 33 seconds in the PFL championship.
Magomedov is good, but this is a huge step up in competition. When, three fights ago, he got a step-up, he was knocked out by Taylor. I just have a hard time seeing Magomedov KO Strickland, who has a good chin, as only Alex Pereira has KO'd him at middleweight.
Strickland is also known for his cardio, so I expect him to push the pace and just out-volume Magomedov to win a clear-cut decision.
UFC Vegas 76 Best Bet: Sean Strickland (-150)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Blagoy Ivanov (19-5) vs. Alexandr Romanov (16-2)
Alexandr Romanov started out his UFC career impressive (although the level of competition wasn't there), but after he lost to Marcin Tybura in a fight he looked out of shape, he was quickly TKO'd by Volkov in another fight he looked badly out of shape.
With that, I have a hard time trusting Romanov has actually been training, and his cardio was always in question. He now faces Blagoy Ivanov, who is super durable, hard to take down and has been known for his cardio.
I expect Ivanov to survive the first round and then really start to bring it on Romanov on the feet and win the final two rounds to edge out a decision. This bet is really just a fade of Romanov, as he shouldn't be the favorite over any top-15 heavyweight.
UFC Vegas 76 Best Bet: Blagoy Ivanov (+115)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Damir Ismagulov (24-2) vs. Grant Dawson (19-1-1)
For my prop, I'm taking the co-main event of Damir Ismagulov and Granto Dawson to go the distance (GTD) which is -190. I personally had it lined at -225.
Ismagulov is not a finisher and is as durable as they come. In his UFC career, which stretches six fights, all six have gone the distance, as he's 5-1 in that time. Out of his 26 fights, 13 have gone the distance, but once he started to fight higher-caliber fighters, it started to go the distance more often. In fact, eight of his last nine overall have gone to the judges.
Dawson, meanwhile, is very durable and will be hard to put out. Generally, he uses his wrestling to try to sink in chokes to get the sub. Yet, as we saw in Ismagulov's fight against Arman Tsarukyan, Ismagulov is extremely hard to control on the mat and defends the choke well.
This fight should be very entertaining, full of wrestling and scrambles. Even when I spoke to Dawson, he admitted this one is probably going the distance, as he has his doubts he will finish Ismagulov.
UFC Vegas 76 Best Bet: Damir Ismagulov-Grant Dawson GTD (-190)
Weight Classes: Lightweight & Women's Flyweight
Guram Kutateladze (12-3) vs. Elves Brener (14-3)
Ivana Petrovic (6-0) vs. Luana Carolina (8-4)
For my parlay, I'm backing Guram Kutateladze and Ivana Petrovic to get their hands raised Saturday.
Kutateladze has been struggling to get a fight and now gets a very favorable matchup, as he should be fighting someone in the top-10 (he is truly that good). He beat Mateusz Gamrot in his debut and is coming off a split-decision loss to Ismagulov, which was a close fight. Kutateladze is the better striker and will be able to land the better shots. He should also be able to mix in his wrestling to win a decision.
The other leg is Petrovic to beat Luana Carolina in her UFC debut. Petrovic is a perfect 6-0 and is coming off a very impressive submission win last time out. Carolina, meanwhile, is 3-3 in the UFC and struggles against grapplers, as Ariane Lipski was able to submit her despite Lipski being primarily known for her striking.
Effectively, Petrovic should be able to get Carolina down with ease and get a submission victory in the first or second round.
UFC Vegas 76 Best Bets: Guram Kutateladze & Ivana Petrovic parlay (-143)
UFC Vegas 76 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 76 best bets:
- Sean Strickland (-150)
- Blagoy Ivanov (+115)
- Damir Ismagulov & Grant Dawson goes the distance (-190)
- Guram Kutateladze & Ivana Petrovic parlay (-143)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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