This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Manchester, England on Saturday, July 27 for a solid UFC 304. The main event sees Leon Edwards defending his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad, while the co-main event has Tom Aspinall defending his interim belt against Curtis Blaydes. Both fights are rematches.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (15-5)
On the main card of UFC 304 is an all-action fight at middleweight between Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues.
This fight won't last long, as both combatants throw with bad intentions. To me, Duncan is the better striker, while I have concerns about Rodrigues' chin. Both fighters are on two-fight winning streaks with both coming by knockouts, but Duncan is the more technical striker and should be able to land the big shots.
Although Rodrigues slightly lands more significant strikes per minute (6.08 to 5.96), his striking defense is the concern, as he absorbs 5.30 while Duncan absorbs 3.82. Duncan will be harder to hit, and I expect him to land something big early to KO Rodrigues.
UFC 304 Best Bet: Christian Leroy Duncan (-142)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (21-3) vs. Bobby Green (32-15-1)
Paddy Pimblett hasn't looked that impressive in his last two fights, but this is a spot I think he can pull off the upset and beat Bobby Green at home at UFC 304.
Pimblett will have a big advantage on the ground, and he should look to get Green down several times. Even if it stays on the feet, Pimblett does have the power to hurt Green, as his chin is starting to go, especially after the brutal Jalin Turner knockout loss.
With the fight being in England, Pimblett will get the boost from the crowd, which could even sway the judges, as the crowd will make much more noise when he lands. Pimblett should be active enough on the feet and use his wrestling to edge out a decision here as a slight underdog.
UFC 304 Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett (-102)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Preston Parsons (11-4) vs. Oban Elliott (10-2)
On the early prelims is a really intriguing welterweight bout between Preston Parsons and Oban Elliott. The odds for this fight are close, and I slightly lean towards Parsons, but I like the over 2.5 rounds much more in this fight.
Parsons has gone the distance in three of his four UFC fights, and the only time he didn't was when he lost to Daniel Rodriguez by knockout in a fight he took on short notice. Elliott, meanwhile, has gone the distance in his last five fights and couldn't even finish Val Woodburn last time out.
Both fighters have solid chins, while both won't be afraid to wrestle. A lot of this fight could be spent in the clinch, which will burn the clock and is a big part of the reason I like the over here.
UFC 304 Best Bet: Preston Parsons vs. Oban Elliott over 2.5 rounds (-140)
Weight Classes: Heavyweight & Women's flyweight
Michael Parkin (9-0) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (9-4-1)
Molly McCann (14-6) vs. Bruna Brasil (9-4-1)
For my parlay at UFC 304, I'm backing Michael "Mick" Parkin and Molly McCann to get their hands raised at UFC 304.
Parkin is an undefeated heavyweight fighter who trains with Tom Aspinall and gets a very winnable fight against Lukasz Brzeski. Brzeski, to me, is not UFC caliber, as Parkin should be able to control the fight with his wrestling and is also the better striker. He'll cruise to a lopsided decision win here.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing McCann to beat Brasil, as the UFC gave her a good stylistic matchup to get a win in front of a favorable home crowd.
Brasil has a negative striking differential, which is a concern, as McCann is a much better striker than her. McCann should be able to land the heavy shots to hurt Brasil and possibly even get a TKO. More likely is a decision win, as McCann can use her strength to clinch Brasil and win positions, which will effectively help her land the better shots.
UFC 304 Best Bet: Michael Parkin & Molly McCann parlay (-139)
UFC 304 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 304 best bets:
- Christian Leroy Duncan (-142)
- Paddy Pimblett (-102)
- Preston Parsons-Oban Elliott over 2.5 rounds (-140)
- Michael Parkin & Molly McCann parlay (-139)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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