This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC 272 kicks off on Saturday, which means we are back with another edition of Best Bets. Plus-money plays populate the article as usual, but I simply couldn't help but grab a moderately priced favorite who I feel is being disrespected in the co-main event. I have limited my looks to lines below (-200), as I feel that anything more expensive is supposed to come in, and doesn't really require a write-up. All lines are taken from the William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Without any further ado, let's get to it.
Rafael dos Anjos (30-13-0) vs. Renato Moicano (16-4-1) Weight class: Catchweight – 160lbs
The oddsmakers lined this fight competitively despite Moicano taking the assignment on less than a week's notice. Perhaps they were struck by his recent destruction of Alexander Hernandez, or the fact that wins haven't been so easy to come by for "RDA" of late. Either way, this seems fairly generous in favor of the former lightweight champion.
That's not to say that Moicano didn't show positive signs in the win over Hernandez. Following a string of knockout losses, the 32-year-old seemed almost desperate to get the fight to the ground against Jai Herbert. This led some (including myself) to conclude that if Hernandez could avoid being submitted early, he would be able to fluster Moicano with big power. This didn't happen, however, and Moicano was able to use his combination punching and defense to secure a victory. The problem with this matchup is that dos Anjos is much harder to hit than Hernandez, and has only been out-grappled by former champions (like Covington and Usman) or big welterweights like Michael Chiesa and Leon Edwards. While this is a catchweight, it's safe to assume that "RDA" will be the bigger man after rehydration, which may affect how easily the takedowns come for the man "moving up."
He may not have much power in his hands, but RDA has always been a fluid combination striker, who used leg kicks to neutralize a much taller fighter in Neil Magny before finishing that fight in top position. It would be tough for a fighter to have cardio for three rounds on such short notice, so it's difficult to imagine Moicano will be able to avoid slowing down over 25 minutes unless he can get dos Anjos out of the Octagon early.
The play: Rafael dos Anjos: (-160)
Sergey Spivac (13-3-0) vs. Greg Hardy (7-4-0) Weight class: Heavyweight
If you ask an MMA bettor who they like in a low-level bout between two fighters in the company's heaviest weight class, you shouldn't be surprised to receive a shrug of the shoulders followed by the phrase "it's heavyweight." The implication here is that the two men lack the technique of those in lighter classes, and each has the power to finish their opponent, so it's difficult to make a confident call. While this is frequently the case, sometimes we come across a fighter who is completely ill-equipped to deal with an entire phase of MMA. When such a fighter competes, we should take advantage of the opportunity.
I'm referring to Hardy, who seems to fight exclusively on the main cards of pay-per-views these days despite going 2-3 in his last five contests. To be fair, he is athletic and seems to be improving his striking, but it's hard to recall a fighter who looked as lost on the ground as Hardy when he was smashed by Marcin Tybura after being taken down in Round 2 of their fight. Spivac is a decent fundamental boxer, and while he relies too much on shelling up for defense, was able to take down and dominate two big heavyweights in Tai Tuivasa and Jared Vanderaa.
Often, William Hill allows us to make one bet that covers every finish outcome. This time, we need to choose between submission and KO/TKO at identical prices (+275). This makes things a bit tougher, but it's helpful to understand that Spivac often goes for submission attempts on the ground, even if they haven't officially registered as such with Fightmetric. The Vanderaa fight may have ended via ground-and-pound, but I attribute that to the fact that "The Mountain" has decent ground defense, as he was constantly locking down half guard, and recovering full guard when Spivac would try to advance position. Hardy will not be so competent.
The play: Sergey Spivac via Submission: (+275)
Edson Barboza (22-10-0) vs. Bryce Mitchell (14-0-0) Weight class: Featherweight
I've always believed that getting too hung up on a narrative can hurt a prospective bettor or DFS player. I'm referring to those that saddle a fighter with one particular weakness and apply it in all circumstances. Andrei Arlovski's "suspect chin" has seen the former heavyweight champion knocked out just once in his last 15 fights. Charles Oliveira was once thought to be a quitter when the going got tough but has overcome adversity all the way to championship gold. In the case of Barboza, the idea that all it took to beat him was pressure was dispelled when he knocked out the most relentless pressure fighter the division has to offer in Shane Burgos. I believe he will change another narrative on Saturday.
The narrative in question is that "Junior" can't beat tireless grapplers. This really picked up steam after his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov and was solidified when Kevin Lee controlled him on the ground for 15 minutes during a five-round loss in 2018. Enter Mitchell, a slick, undefeated grappler who averages more than three takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. It seems that if anyone else were able to ground out Barboza, it would be him. So why am I picking the other way? I mentioned in the MMA Mashup that Barboza has a very strong sprawl in open space, which is where the majority of Mitchell's attempts come from. Here, I'd like to emphasize that Barboza has made the move from lightweight to featherweight, and we have numerous examples of takedowns becoming harder to defend as a fighter moves up and easier to stop as a fighter moves down. Look no further than Luke Rockhold vs. Jan Blachowicz and Israel Adesanya vs. Blachowicz for instances of each.
Barboza was able to defend his legs well enough in his fight with Makwan Amirkhani, who is far more athletic than Mitchell. Here, "Thug Nasty" (who has fought as low as bantamweight) will have to deal with the lighting-quick and powerful strikes of Barboza, as well as having to take down the naturally bigger man. Until he shows he can deal with both of those challenges, I'm happy to take a dangerous veteran at underdog odds.
The play: Edson Barboza (+140)
Tagir Ulanbekov (13-1-0) vs. Tim Elliot (17-12-1) Weight class: Flyweight
It's generally a bad strategy when someone fights in the style that gives their opponent the best chance to win, but I am thoroughly unconcerned that this will be a problem for Ulanbeckov, who is heavy on top, can scramble when he has to, and has landed at least four takedowns in each of his first two UFC appearances. Elliott also relies on his wrestling for success, having notched at least four takedowns in all but two of his wins in the organization.
That's not to say Elliot can't fight at range, but while he prides himself on awkward movement, the openings he leaves allow him to be countered hard, and Ulanbekov can throw crisp straight punches. While the scrambles he attempts to create on the ground are what makes him so exciting, he will often throw himself out of position trying to lock in a hold, which resulted in his submission loss to Brandon Royval in 2020.
Elliott generally tries playing the striking game early to save his gas tank, so it won't be too surprising to see him try to work his way into the bout. It shouldn't be long before one of our competitors initiates a grappling exchange, however, and I expect Ulanbekov to be a step ahead in every phase until he hands his opponent the sixth submission loss of his career.
The play: Tagir Ulanbekov wins via submission: (+275)
