This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 76 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Guram Kutateladze (12-3-0) v. Elves Brener (14-3-0)
Guram Kutateladze - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Elves Brener - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Although Brener had a surprising and successful debut, I expect Kutatladze to be a step ahead in this fight. If Brener gets the fight to the mat, I would not be surprised to see him record another massive upset, but he likely finds it difficult to record takedowns, and he should get touched up more often than not on the feet.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Kutateladze
Alexandr Romanov (16-2-0) v. Blagoy Ivanov (19-5-0)
Alexandr Romanov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins
Blagoy Ivanov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This looks to be a get-right fight for Romanov. Ivanov is getting older and will have no advantage in this fight. He has also never finished anyone in his UFC tenure. Romanov is on a two-fight slide but should have learned much from those losses. I expect him to come out and get this done in the first or second round.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Romanov
Joanderson Brito (14-3-1) v. Westin Wilson (16-7-0)
Joanderson Brito - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
Westin Wilson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Wilson is making his UFC and has been a dangerous finisher for other promotions. However, Brito will easily be his toughest test to date. I expect he will have his moments, but Brito should be the fighter controlling the pace, and a knockout is likely.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Brito
Ivana Petrovic (6-0-0) v. Luana Carolina (8-4-0)
Ivana Petrovic - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Luana Carolina - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Carolina will take on the debuting Petrovic for her seventh UFC fight. She will have an advantage with experience, but that will likely be it. Petrovic has an up-tempo fighting style and will likely have her way with Carolina. I expect her to thrive in her debut and finish this fight early.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Petrovic
Yana Santos (14-7-0) v. Karol Rosa (16-5-0)
Yana Santos - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Karol Rosa - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a tightly contested fight for 15 minutes, with each woman having her moments. Rosa should be attacking the takedown defense of Santos and have the edge in volume. She should pull out a close victory.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Rosa
Kevin Lee (19-7-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-2-0)
Kevin Lee - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Rinat Fakhretdinov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Lee makes his return to the UFC and draws the high-rising prospect Fakhredinov. I expect him to have a moment or two but for Fakhredinov to control the fight's pace. Fakhredinov should have the edge everywhere the fight goes; another high DFS score is likely from him.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Fakhredinov
Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2) v. Brunno Ferreira (10-0-0)
Nursulton Ruziboev - Height: 6'2" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 32 finishes in 34 wins
Brunno Ferreira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Ruziboev will make his UFC debut with his 35th professional fight. He has a considerable edge in experience and is a dangerous finisher like his opponent. I do not see this fight going to the bell, as it likely ends in Round 1. Ferreira is rightfully the favorite, but either guy could come away with the win. This fight is a must-play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Ferreira
Benoit Saint-Denis (10-1-0) v. Ismael Bonfim (19-3-0)
Benoit Saint-Denis - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Ismael Bonfim - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an absolute banger of a matchup and a potential Fight of the Night. Both fighters are explosive, with excellent overall games, and a decision is unlikely. This will be another must-play for DFS and could go either way. I lean toward Bonfim for his overall body of work but would not be surprised to see it go the other way.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Bonfim
Ariane Lipski (15-8-0) v. Melissa Gatto (8-1-2)
Ariane Lipski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Melissa Gatto - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be another close fight. I give Gatto a slight edge anywhere the fight goes, but Lipski has that dog in her and will make this a close battle. Gatto is typically known for her ground game but has recorded her first two knockouts in the UFC promotion before losing a close fight. Lipski has been knocked out four times, so there is an avenue for Gatto to record another, but I expect this fight to be a grappling match primarily.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Gatto
Max Griffin (19-9-0) v. Michael Morales (14-0-0)
Max Griffin - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Michael Morales - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a fun, fast-paced striking match for as long as it lasts. Both guys are solid strikers, but Morales should have the edge in power, volume and speed. Griffin has looked better of late and still has plenty of life in his hands and chin. He should keep things close, but Morales should take over the longer the fight goes on.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Morales
Damir Ismagulov (24-2-0) v. Grant Dawson (19-1-1)
Damir Ismagulov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
Grant Dawson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This shapes up as a classic striker vs. grappler match. Ismagulov will have the advantage on the feet, while Dawson will hold the edge on the mat. Ismagulov's takedown defense was exploited in his latest fight, and I expect Dawson to do the same. Dawson can also keep this close on the feet and should be the one pushing the pace. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Dawson
Sean Strickland (26-5-0) v. Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-4-1)
Sean Strickland - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 26 wins
Abusupiyan Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: The main event should be action-packed, with someone likely getting finished early. Strickland has a clear advantage with experience, but other than that, I expect these guys to be evenly matched. This is a giant step up in competition for Magomedov, and I think he is ready for it.
UFC Vegas 76 Pick: Magomedov
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 76 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
