This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 294 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Bruno Silva (23-9-0) v. Sharaputdin Magomedov 11-0-0)
Bruno Silva - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 23 wins
Sharaputdin Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Fight night kicks off with a banger of a matchup. Silva is a dangerous striker with 20 knockouts to his name and is always live for a finish. Magomedov is finally making his UFC debut after an explosive 11 fights in other promotions. Like Silva, he is a dangerous knockout artist. This fight should be all fireworks and end early. I love the explosiveness of Magomedov and expect him to start his UFC tenure with a bang.
UFC 294 Pick: Magomedov
Jinh Yu Frey (11-9-0) v. Viktoriia Dudakova (7-0-0)
Jinh Yu Frey - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Viktoriia Dudakova - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Frey is 38, has lost three straight, and is on the verge of being cut. I do not expect much from her at this point in her career. On the other hand, Dudakova is making her second UFC fight after a flash finish in round one of her debut. I expect her to dominate Frey everywhere this fight goes and to eventually finish this before the bell.
UFC 294 Pick: Dudakova
Nathaniel Wood (19-5-0) v. Muhammadjon Naimov (9-2-0)
Nathaniel Wood - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Muhammadjon Naimov - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Wood is being fed an opponent in this one. Naimov lost his Contender Series fight, was losing his UFC debut until he chanced a knockout, and now gets an opponent in Wood, who is by far the best fighter he has faced. Wood should roll.
UFC 294 Pick: Wood
Anshul Jubli (7-0-0) v. Mike Breeden (10-6-0)
Anshul Jubli - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 69" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Mike Breeden - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Jubli had an impressive UFC debut, recording a knockout midway through the second round. Breeden has lost all three of his UFC fights, and this should be his last fight if he loses again. I expect the first couple minutes to be close but for Jubli to pull away and eventually finish Breeden early. Breeden does have a fight where he eclipsed 100 significant strikes in the UFC; if he can keep this up on the feet and protect his chin, there is a possibility he pulls off the upset.
UFC 294 Pick: Jubli
Sedriques Dumas (8-1-0) v. Abu Azaitar (14-3-1)
Sedriques Dumas - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Abu Azaitar - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: If Azaitar had not clearly shown he has slowed in his most recent fight, I would give him more stock in this fight. He has considerable power but is now 37 and draws a much younger rising prospect who can push a faster pace. Dumas looked great in his second UFC fight, dominating three rounds to a unanimous decision. I expect the younger fighter to grapple his way to another win.
UFC 294 Pick: Dumas
Javid Basharat (14-0-0) v. Victor Henry (23-6-0)
Javid Basharat - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Victor Henry - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight likely ends a little closer than most people think. Basharat will soon find his way into the top-15 with his suffocating wrestling and crisp technical striking. Henry has amassed a couple of quality wins in three fights in the UFC. He is as tough as they come, has never been finished, and puts out a ton of volume. If this stays on the feet, this fight will be much closer than it should be. I expect Basharat to get this to the mat early and often to keep control and grind out a decision.
UFC 294 Pick: Basharat
Mohammad Yahya (12-3-0) v. Trevor Peek (8-1-0)
Mohammad Yahya - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Trevor Peek - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Yayha is making his UFC debut after a successful run in the UAE Warriors promotion. He will have his hands full in this one, and his best path to victory will be on the mat. Peek dropped to 1-1 in the UFC after losing a hard-fought battle last time out. He is dangerous on the feet, giving no caution and just continually throwing. If Peek gets taken down, he will gas out quickly trying to get back up. If this stays on the feet, I expect Peek to batter his way to another early knockout finish.
UFC 294 Pick: Peek
Tim Elliott (19-12-1) v. Muhammad Mokaev (9-0-0)
Tim Elliott - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 19 wins
Muhammad Mokaev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Mokaev moved to 4-0 in his short UFC tenure after his win in March and now draws another step up in competition. Elliott is a long-standing veteran who enjoys knocking prospects down a couple of pegs. He has won four of his last five using his cardio and wrestling. However, Mokaev is a different animal and will be leagues better in the grappling department. Elliott has been submitted five times in his career, and a sixth is looming if he cannot get control first.
UFC 294 Pick: Mokaev
Said Nurmagomedov (17-3-0) v. Muin Gafurov (18-5-0)
Said Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
Muin Gafurov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This matchmaking makes little sense to me. Gafurov lost his Contender Series fight and UFC debut against far lesser opponents. Nurmagomedov is not the most exciting fighter, but he should have his way in this one. A low-scoring decision is likely.
UFC 294 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Ikram Aliskerov (14-1-0) v. Warlley Alves (14-6-0)
Ikram Aliskerov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Warlley Alves - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Alves has lost three of four and should start feeling the pressure of remaining in the UFC. He is a solid striker but does not throw much volume. Aliskerov won his UFC debut, highlighted by a two-minute knockout. I expect him to have a similar fight and finish Alves early. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC 294 Pick: Aliskerov
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1) v. Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
Magomed Ankalaev - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
Johnny Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 82" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Ankalaev was robbed of the belt last time out, losing a split decision after 25 minutes. Walker finds himself a win away from a title bout but runs into the division's most complete fighter. Both fighters have solid defensive tendencies and hardly get hit. Walker will have an edge in reach, but I do not see it playing much of a part. The most significant difference in this fight will be Ankalaev's wrestling. If he takes this to the mat, he will find all sorts of success. If he stands and strikes for 15 minutes, it makes this fight much closer.
UFC 294 Pick: Ankalaev
Kamaru Usman (20-3-0) v. Khamzat Chimaev (12-0-0)
Kamaru Usman - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Khamzat Chimaev - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Usman is taking this fight on short notice. He has lost back-to-back fights and is looking to regain his champion form. Chimaev is getting his biggest step up, and a win here almost guarantees a title shot. If Usman is in form, I would ride with him all day. Unfortunately, we do not know, and this fight is short notice. He still makes a solid GPP play. Chimaev will have a considerable speed advantage and be the one applying pressure. However, he does need to worry about takedowns and counters. Chimaev will be the popular pick, but Usman was the champ for as long as he was for a reason.
UFC 294 Pick: Chimaev
Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) v. Alexander Volkanovski (26-2-0)
Islam Makhachev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins
Alexander Volkanovski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch between two of the greatest UFC fighters. Volkanovski is taking this fight on short notice but should be ready to go (keep an eye on weigh-ins). This should be similar to the first fight, with Makhachev having the edge on the mat and Volk having the advantage on the feet. The winner of this fight is going to score well. Pick a side and roll with them. The current champ is the favorite for a reason, but never count out Volk; nobody makes better mid-fight adjustments than him.
UFC 294 Pick: Volkanovski
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 294 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
