This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 9 NFL Picks and Player Props
Another mixed bag of results last week as my props went poorly (tough to know a Jordan Mason injury but it's not like he had a clean bill of health). Two of my anytime touchdowns cashed (David Montgomery and Keon Coleman) and to be fair that was almost 50/50ish if you took all players mentioned.
I do like looking at the lines this week, and for the first time in a while there's only one game with an over/under of under 40 points. That seems good for us bettors.
Player Anytime Touchdowns
Jonathan Taylor +110 FanDuel
So let's start here as he's -165 on other sites so this seems like great value. He's scored in four out of five games this season and this seems like the line will go the opposite direction before kickoff. It's a good sign that he had 21 touches last game against a stout Texans' defense that is a tougher matchup on paper than these Vikings. Get these odds sooner than later.
Nick Chubb +110 FanDuel
I think there's a lot of value here given that Chubb now gets a full workload. In a few weeks, he will price more in the -200 range matter the opponent. The Chargers have a solid defense against the run, but this game in Cleveland marks the third road game for Los Angeles in the last four weeks. Chubb had 16 carries last week and I expect that number as the floor and not the ceiling here.
Darius Slayton +310 FanDuel, Wan'Dale Robinson +360 DraftKings
I will go back to the Giants duo this week as I think one of them will score at home against the Commanders. We just need one to hit to make a profit and again, the upside is there that they both score and make it a big payday. I actually think the presence of Malik Nabers helps, bringing softer coverage to both of these wide receivers. It's a pretty narrow receiving tree for the Giant and the Commanders are on the road and rank 20th against opposing wide receivers.
Player Props
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Josh Allen Under 243.5 Passing Yards -115 BetRivers
I really, really hate having to pick against my Bills but logic usually pans out and I think that becomes the case here. The Dolphins rank first against opposing quarterbacks and Allen only had 139 passing yards the first time these two teams met. While the game flow/script played a role there, the ground game worked for the Bills and that should be their game plan for this contest as well.
Jake Bobo Over 2.5 Receptions +100 BetMGM
Weirdest selection ever, right? Let's start with DK Metcalf who will miss his second straight game, giving Bobo more snaps and hopefully targets. Bobo has only gone over this mark once in eight games this season making this line a bit puzzling. I usually take the bait and play the sharp side in these cases (I thought the Jets being minus points Thursday seemed odd and that worked out) and think Bobo could actually go for 5-6 receptions here.
Caleb Williams Over 221.5 Passing Yards -115 BetRivers, BetMGM
Williams struggled last week against a Washington team that slides a bit under the radar as far as defenses go, especially at home. While Caleb will have to go on the road again this week, it's a much easier matchup as the rookie faces the Cardinals rather than the Commanders. Arizona ranks 25th against opposing quarterbacks and this should be a great spot for Williams to bounce back.
