This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Bye: New York Giants, San Francisco
Stat of the Week: The four worst teams in defensive efficiency all play in the same division, the NFC South (NO, 29th, best of the group). The NFC South is 2-12-1 on the road in 2014.
San Diego (+7.5) at Denver, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: San Diego is trying to avoid back-to-back losses after KC snapped its five-game winning streak. Chargers live and die on the arm of Philip Rivers: they've lost the only two games he hasn't completed at least 64 percent of his passes (58.3, 54.8) and achieved a 123.8 passer rating or better (75.9, 83.4). Fantasy's No. 3 QB (141 points) has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last six games. Keenan Allen, averaging 6.8 YPT, has just one game with more than five points and zero touchdowns all year. Meanwhile, Antonio Gates, third among tight ends with 76 points, scored in three straight, seven times total. After exploding for 47 total points his previous two games, Branden Oliver was limited to just seven by the Chiefs. With Ryan Mathews out at least another week, Oliver looks to rebound against Denver's third-ranked run defense (74.3 YPG). Not just a derivative of DEN playing with leads, Broncos allow a mere 3.3 YPC (league-best: 3.2). ... Peyton Manning, who overtook Andrew Luck as the No. 1 fantasy QB (23.8 FPPG), has 20-plus points in every game. Although just 6-6 career against SD, he's on pace for another 50-TD season thanks to multiple scores every week and three or more in five of six. Not only did Manning break Brett Favre's record, he did so in 56 fewer games (246). Another stiff test playing SD's third-ranked pass defense (209.6 YPG), but does it really matter at this point? After a slow start (141 yards through three games), Demaryius Thomas now leads the NFL with 110.3 YPG. Third in total points (102), Thomas' 17 FPPG lead all receivers as well. He's on pace for 104 catches for 1,765 yards and 16 touchdowns-would be career highs all around. During this three-game tear, DT is averaging 173.7 yards on 8.7 receptions. Despite snagging his first touchdown, Emmanuel Sanders has just three catches in back-to-back games (for a combined 79 yards) after recording at least six for 77 in each of his first four. Wes Welker, who also scored for the first time, caught 13 balls for 118 yards in his first two games back from suspension but just 58 yards on four grabs in two since. Julius Thomas is still the top-scoring TE (81 points), but is far too TD-reliant with no more than 66 yards in five straight games. Thomas' 304 yards are fewer than Jared Cook, Zach Ertz, Larry Donnell, Niles Paul, etc. Ronnie Hillman has all but secured the starting job (barring fumbles), even when Montee Ball (groin) returns. An RB2 the rest of the way, Hillman has proven to be a better fit for this offense with 32 fantasy points in two starts.
Predictions: Rivers and Manning both light it up, passing for 350-plus yards each. Manning throws four touchdowns to Rivers' three. Demaryius Thomas dominates once again with 7-138-1. After having his five-game scoring streak snapped, Julius Thomas starts another. Chargers hang tough and cover, but Broncos avenge last year's 27-20 home loss. Denver, 34-28.
Detroit (-3.5) vs. Atlanta, Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST (in London)
Comments: Detroit has won four of its last five and, at 5-2, is tied with Green Bay atop the NFC North. Matthew Stafford, outside the top 12 at his position, has severely disappointed this season. Stafford has thrown for 300 yards or scored three touchdowns just once, accomplishing neither feat since Week 1. He has more than 15 points in just two games, one in the last six. Obviously, the return of Calvin Johnson could change all that. While Megatron made the trip to London, his status for Sunday remains unclear. Considering the upcoming bye, Detroit will surely exercise caution with their superstar wideout. In his absence, Golden Tate has delivered three 100-yard games in his last four and at least seven receptions in all four. Catching at least five balls every game, Tate is a PPR machine (ninth in standard scoring, 74 points). Officially a bust, Reggie Bush has totaled more than 65 yards just once, never topping the century mark. Clearly not 100 percent healthy, Bush (ankle) maintains he's playing against the Falcons. Likely limited even if active, meaning Joique Bell, who's scored in two straight games, will be the benefactor of this dream matchup with Atlanta, which allows a league-high 26.0 FPPG to opposing RB. ... Atlanta brings the 30th-ranked defense and a four-game losing streak across the pond, hoping to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, it just scored seven points against Baltimore (fewest in regular season since 2009) and takes on the league's No. 1 defense, which allows 290.3 YPG (second in points, 15.0 PPG). Despite being eighth among quarterbacks, Matt Ryan is in a freefall with less than 15 points in three straight games (one TD in each). Ryan's 5.2 YPA was his lowest since Week 10 of 2013 and Detroit allows a league-low 11.1 FPPG to QB. Julio Jones, tied with Dez Bryant for sixth at 80 points, is coming off his two worst games of the season. Jones has just 124 yards over those two (68, 56 yards) after averaging 110.4 through five games (552 yards). Roddy White is fresh off his first 100-yard game, best this season. Although weak on paper in the back end, the Lions allow just 15.1 FPPG to WR, third fewest in the league. Fresh off consecutive games of 25 total yards and looking at football's second-ranked run defense (73.4 YPG) and a bye the next two weeks, Steven Jackson is officially droppable.
Predictions:Joique Bell is the story with 116 yards on 29 carries, two for scores. On a rare case when the offensive line gives Ryan time to throw against Detroit's fearsome pass rush, Julio Jones burns Rashean Mathis for a 71-yard TD. Jones finishes with 134 yards; Golden Tate, 103. After picking the Falcons to win and cover in four straight, I'm done. Lions win. Detroit, 24-20.
Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Again giving the Bills a chance to win late, serviceable Kyle Orton earned his second come-from-behind victory in three weeks. Throwing for at least 283 yards in all three starts and completing 68.5 percent of his passes, Orton's not a bad streaming option with NY allowing a league-high 20.9 FPPG to QB. Two of Sammy Watkins' three highest yardage totals have come with Orton at the helm, including easily his best game of the year last week (9-122-2). Watkins, 15th among WR with 64 points, averages almost two more catches and targets per game since the switch. Although inactive all seven games, Bryce Brown is my bet to seize the starting role with C.J. Spiller (collarbone) and Fred Jackson (groin) on the shelf. Similar to the McKinnon/Asiata situation, Brown (6-foot-0, 223, 4.38 40) is far and away the more talented player, which seems to mean nothing to Doug Marrone, while Anthony Dixon is essentially a fullback (6-1, 233, 4.67 40, no elusiveness or lateral quickness). We all remember Brown's two-game 2012 explosion with Philly, going 19-178-2 and 24-169-2 in consecutive weeks, reminding us why he was the most coveted RB recruit coming out of high school. New York's eighth-ranked run defense (88.0 YPG) held NE to 63 yards rushing after allowing 300 combined over its last two (162 to SD, 138 to DEN). ... Geno Smith, the only quarterback to throw a pick in every game, finally avoided doing so against the Pats in probably his best performance all year. Smith rushed for 37 yards (most since Week 1), but accuracy issues persist with four straight and five of six games with less than 60 percent completed. John Idzik finally gave him a second NFL-caliber receiver via the Percy Harvin trade. Although Harvin struggled (6.0 YPC, 5.1 YPT, 100-plus YFS just once in his last 11 games), adding one of the league's most explosive playmakers provides a huge boost. While a drop in targets is unavoidable, Eric Decker should benefit from more scoring opportunities and less defensive attention. Despite no more than 74 yards in any game, Decker is consistent -- at least four receptions and 48 yards every week (outside of the CHI game, hardly played with hamstring injury). Chris Ivory, 11th among RB, established season highs in carries (21) and points (17) in his first 100-yard game since Week 1. Don't expect the same this week -- Buffalo allows just 9.6 FPPG to RB (second in NFL). Both the 61 yards rushing and 19 receiving were Chris Johnson's highest totals since opening day.
Predictions:Bryce Brown rushes for 91 yards and scores on 12 carries. Sammy Watkins follows his career day with seven catches for 83 yards. Chris Ivory finds little room to run, finishing with 49 yards. Jets try to appease Harvin by feeding him touches out of the gate, getting him into the end zone. Jets' six-game skid comes ends. New York, 17-16.
Baltimore (+1.5) at Cincinnati, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: The division-leading Ravens are looking for their second three-game winning streak already this year. Oddly enough, Joe Flacco's 117 points are good for ninth, just one point behind Matt Ryan. Despite consecutive multi-score games for the first time all year, Flacco still has just two with more than 15 points. Torrey Smith established a season high with 81 yards and scored in three of his last four, but no more than four catches in a game yet. Steve Smith remains fifth among receivers with 83 points despite catching a season-low three passes and scoring six or fewer points for the second time in three weeks. No. 8 RB Justin Forsett (76 points) received a season-high 23 carries against Atlanta -- nine more than any other game this year -- further cementing his status as lead dog in Baltimore. Still a sell-high to me, but Forsett has a terrific matchup on paper against Cincy's 30th-ranked run defense (146.3 YPG). Owen Daniels is just outside the top 10, an indication of how bleak the 2014 TE landscape is. ... After starting 3-0, Cincinnati is winless since the Week 4 bye, going 0-2-1. The Bengals recorded just eight first downs and 135 total yards (32 rushing) while being shut out by Indianapolis. Their offense was expected to struggle without A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert, but to be 31st in total defense (416.7 YPG) with that talent is inexcusable. Green (toe) is progressing, but his return is "still up in the air." Andy Dalton, who had a measly 126 passing yards last week, desperately needs his top target against the NFL's top scoring defense (14.9 PPG). A far cry from last year's top-five fantasy season, the Red Rifle has no more than two touchdowns or 18 fantasy points in any game and one TD or fewer four times. Coming off a season-low five points against Indy, No. 14 WR Mohamed Sanu will draw Jimmy Smith Sunday if Green is inactive. Giovani Bernard, still seventh among running backs (77 points) despite his one-point dud, faces a Baltimore defense allowing the fewest FPPG to opposing RB (9.6).
Predictions: Cincinnati D finally wakes up, limiting Joe Flacco to 198 yards and Justin Forsett to 68 YFS. Giovani Bernard rebounds with 107 total yards and a score. A.J. Green plays, albeit on limited snaps. Andy Dalton protects the ball and allows his defense to get the Bengals back into the winner's circle. Cincinnati 16-13.
Seattle (-4.5) at Carolina, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Seattle travels to CAR reeling, losing consecutive games for the first time in two years (Weeks 7-8 of 2012). Seahawks escaped Carolina with narrow victories each of the last two seasons, 16-12 in 2012 and 12-7 in 2013. Russell Wilson, fifth in total points (135) and third in FPPG (22.5), ran for a score in a third straight. However, he had just three games with a rushing touchdown his first two seasons, and the Panthers held him to 19 yards on the ground in those two contests. As a passer, Wilson fared well versus CAR: 75.9 percent, 9.3 YPA, 541 yards. Wilson has at least 34 points in two of his last three games and 17 or more in five of six. Now the top target with Harvin gone, Doug Baldwin responded with season highs across the board (7-123-1). In addition to Jermaine Kearse, second-round speedster Paul Richardson and physical freak Ricardo Lockette will see increased playing time to fill the void. Those "pedestrian" receivers have a plus matchup with Carolina allowing 26.4 FPPG to WR, fourth most in the league. No. 5 RB Marshawn Lynch failed to score in either of the last two games, registering just six points in each. Lynch had at least one touchdown (six total) and 11-plus fantasy points in each of his first four. Although held in check by the Panthers in those meetings (3.4 YPC, 146 total yards), Beast Mode should shred a Carolina D allowing the third-most points to RB (22.1 FPPG) and a league-high 5.3 YPC. ... Not many positives to take away from a 38-17 drubbing, but one was Cam Newton continuing to use his legs (seven carries, 41 yards). With the lack of weapons at his disposal, rushing totals are necessary for Newton to even be in the QB1 conversation. Seattle's defense is not as scary as last season, but Newton has just one game of more than 18 points and four with exactly one touchdown. Top-10 fantasy wideout Kelvin Benjamin scored touchdowns and double digit points in five of seven games. Greg Olsen, leading all TE in yards (493) and second in points (77), established season highs in catches (8) and yards (105) last week. Like Benjamin, Olsen's scored 10-plus points five times. If you're thinking of starting Jonathan Stewart, don't. Stewart has not surpassed 51 rushing yards since 2011, and Seattle's sixth-ranked run defense allows 85.5 YPG.
Predictions:Marshawn Lynch goes off for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson's excellence continues with 21 fantasy points on just 24 pass attempts. Paul Richardson scores for the first time as a pro, Lockette for the third time this year. Cam Newton totals 277 yards (54 rushing leads team) and two scores. Richard Sherman follows Benjamin around most of the day, intercepting his first pass but surrendering a TD to the rookie. Hawks come out with renewed focus, dominate. Seattle, 28-14.
Chicago (+6.5) at New England, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Coming off a disappointing home loss and facing NE and GB the next two weeks, the 3-4 Bears' playoff hopes are fading fast. Against Miami, No. 6 QB Jay Cutler was held to less than 16 fantasy points for the first time. Cutler now has consecutive games with one touchdown after scoring at least two in each of his first five. That trend could continue with NE first in pass yards (208 YPG) and third in fantasy points (13.4 per game) allowed to QB. Supposedly the best WR duo in football, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are underperforming (both just barely inside top 20). Marshall, averaging a mere 49.9 YPG and 6.2 YPT, has seven or fewer points in four of his last five games and more than 48 yards just twice this season. Inexplicably, Jeffery has been targeted more than seven times just once all year. The pair will tangle with one of the best CB duos in the NFL, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, and a NE defense allowing second-fewest points to WR (14.7 FPPG). Still fourth amongst TE, but Martellus Bennett's annual October swoon continues, scoring just 13 points this month (13 or more in three of four games in September). No. 2 RB Matt Forte, actually leading the league in receptions, has been an absolute monster with at least 20 points in three consecutive games and 16-plus in four straight. Averaging 126 total YPG (64 rushing, 62 receiving) with four games of at least 157 YFS, Forte has scored in three straight games and faces a NE defense that just allowed 218 yards rushing to the Jets. ... Tom Brady won his 41st straight home game against AFC opponents and improved to 7-0 in Thursday games. Brady has 914 yards (304.7 YPG) and a 9:0 TD:INT ratio over his last three games after just 801 (200.3 per) and 4:2 in his first four. With 20-plus points in each of those three (13 or fewer in first four), he's officially a must-start. Although Rob Gronkowski hasn't scored in consecutive weeks, his three highest yardage totals have come the last three weeks and averages 10 targets per game over that span. On the other hand, Brandon LaFell is averaging just five targets during that same stretch. LaFell has seen more than six targets just twice all year, but is averaging 11.3 FPPG over his last four contests thanks to a couple big nights. Julian Edelman, working on five straight games without a TD, has four points or less in three of his last four games. Edelman is on pace for 100.6 receptions and 1,035.5 yards, nearly identical numbers to 2013 (but just 2.3 TD). Shane Vereen had easily his best game of the year, scoring his first touchdowns since Week 1 and amassing 114 total yards on 16 touches. No other back had more than three carries (Jonas Gray), but that rotation is always fluid with Belichick.
Predictions: With Revis and Browner making things difficult for Marshall and Jeffery (114 yards combined), Matt Forte gets loose for 171 total yards and a score. Jay Cutler throws for 264 yards and a TD to Marshall, running for another. Brady's resurgence continues with 288 yards and three more touchdowns. Gronk and Edelman break their respective droughts. Bears nearly pull the upset, covering in the process. New England, 27-24.
Houston (-1) at Tennessee, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Houston, losers of four of five since starting 2-0, travel to Tennessee on a short week after blowing a 13-point lead in Pittsburgh on Monday night. If you looked past the health concerns and gambled on Arian Foster early, it's paid off and then some. The NFL's second-leading rusher (615 yards) is one of just two players averaging at least 100 YPG (102.5). Also second among running backs with 17.0 FPPG, Foster has at least 20 carries and 100-plus rushing yards in five of six games. As usual, Andre Johnson is much better in PPR formats -- at least four catches in every game but just one touchdown and no 100-yard games all year. Not great history against the Titans either, Johnson has no more than 76 yards in any game versus Tennessee since 2009. DeAndre Hopkins, sitting just inside the top 20, has 11-plus points (PPR formats) in every game outside of his Week 6 clunker. Far from an intimidating matchup, Tennessee is 21st against the pass (247.9 YPG), 22nd versus the run (123.7 YPG) and 23rd in scoring (24.6 PPG). ... Ken Whisenhunt named rookie Zach Mettenburger his starting quarterback Wednesday night in a plus matchup against Houston's 26th-ranked pass defense (268.7 YPG). Justin Hunter is highly talented, but maddeningly inconsistent and unreliable, catching no more than three passes in any game. Hard to cut considering the tremendous upside, but Hunter remains nothing more than a bench stash. Kendall Wright doubled his 2013 TD total with four already this season, with three of those scores and his two best games of the year coming in the last three weeks. Bishop Sankey has no more than 61 yards in a game and just one touchdown all season, contributing next to nothing as a receiver to boot (four total catches). A good sign they've given him 34 carries the last two weeks, but you'd expect more than 117 yards on said volume.
Predictions:Arian Foster rushes for 113 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Both Johnson and Hopkins are held to less than 70 yards on five catches apiece. Sankey struggles his way to 57 yards on the ground, allowing J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney to tee off on Mettenburger. Texans even their record at 4-4. Houston, 21-18.
Miami (-6) at Jacksonville, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Miami has played some outstanding football the last three weeks, with the lone loss coming at the hands of the red-hot Packers in the final seconds. Ryan Tannehill, completing 72.3 percent of his passes and throwing two touchdowns each game during this stretch, is a big reason why. Not only have his three highest yardage totals come these last three games, his YPA is 8.5 compared to 5.0 in his first three. Lamar Miller, whose 69 points rank 10th among RB, has at least 12 in four straight games, scoring touchdowns in three straight. Jacksonville's 15th-ranked run defense (110.3 YPG) is playing much better lately, but it's still the Jaguars. No. 16 WR Mike Wallace has scored in three straight and five of six games. The ultra-consistent Wallace (never thought I'd say that) has at least eight points every game; however, no more than 12 any given week and no 100-yard games. He's a borderline top-10 play this week with Jags ranked 30th against the pass (280.1 YPG). ... By upsetting the Browns, JAX finally got into the win column last week. The Jags actually have been competitive in three straight, losing by eight and two before the victory. Defense is the reason for their inspired play as Gus Bradley's bunch has allowed no more than 17 points in any of those games after surrendering a minimum of 33 in their first four outings. Blake Bortles played his worst game as a pro: 5.1 YPA, 159 yards and 54.8 completion percentage were season lows. Hard to get much worse, but they won't improve dramatically against Miami's fourth-ranked pass defense (213.3 YPG). With 127 yards, Denard Robinson became the first Jaguars RB this year to exceed 42 yards on the ground. He's earned the starting nod with that performance, but his reward is a defense allowing 100.3 YPG rushing (10th in NFL). A different player could lead the Jags in receiving almost every week, but Allen Robinson is the most consistent, targeted at least seven times every game since Week 3.
Predictions:Lamar Miller delivers one of the best RB performances of the weekend with a career-high 141 yards and two touchdowns. Mike Wallace contributes 77 yards. Dolphins stuff the run all day, limiting "Shoelace" Robinson to 47 yards. No Jaguars wideout tops four catches or 55 yards. A great survivor play, Fins win, but JAX scores late to cover. Miami, 20-16.
St. Louis (+6.5) at Kansas City, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: St. Louis is riding high after defeating the defending champs at home on the strength of brilliant special teams play. Austin Davis has cooled off considerably, registering 14 points or fewer in his last two games after scoring at least 21 in two games prior. Look for that trend to continue against a No. 2 pass defense that allows just 209.0 YPG. Waiver-wire darling Tre Mason seized control in the Rams' backfield with 18-85-1 against Seattle, relegating Zac Stacy to the bench (just one snap; can be dropped). Benny Cunningham, who actually started the Seahawks game, will continue to handle passing-downs duties and be the relevant handcuff. Finding the end zone will be difficult against KC, who hasn't allowed a RB touchdown all year (11.8 FPPG allowed, sixth fewest). After at least 62 yards in each of his first four, Quick has just three catches for 43 yards on six targets combined his last two games. Clearly trying to get him involved, Tavon Austin has at least seven touches each of the last two weeks. Jared Cook would be a top-10 TE if Lance Kendricks didn't constantly vulture touchdowns. Cooks has yet to score this season, but actually has more yards (320) than Julius Thomas, Travis Kelce and Dwayne Allen. ... Chiefs have won three of four after starting 0-2. Alex Smith has no more than 14 fantasy points his last two games and four of six this season, scoring one touchdown or less in each. Smith exemplifies the game manager, yet to exceed 255 passing yards in any game but throwing just one INT in his last five. He and Dwayne Bowe could have big days -- the Rams allow third-most fantasy points to QB (20.5 FPPG) and WR (26.5). Bowe has five catches and 81-plus yards in two of his last three. Jamaal Charles didn't want to go through the concussion protocol, but that's a whole other article. After a brutal start (two fantasy points and 2.6 YPC entering Week 4), Charles has 52 points over his last three games, notching at least 80 yards and 4.3 YPC in each. Not a great matchup with STL allowing the fifth-fewest FPPG (11.2) to opposing RB. With his snap count still lacking (53.3 percent Week 7, 49.3 overall in 2014), odds are Travis Kelce won't truly be unleashed this season. No. 10 TE Kelce had a season-low three points last week and exceeded four catches just once in six games (16 receptions in those five games).
Predictions:Jamaal Charles rushes for a season-high 153 yards, including a 64-yard scamper for one of his two scores. Dwayne Bowe, averaging a career-high 9.3 YPT, reaches the painted area for the first time during a 99-yard day. Jared Cook also scores his first touchdown. With KC stacking the box, Tre Mason struggles. Chiefs cover the spread en route to their fourth win in five games. Kansas City, 24-17.
Minnesota (+3) at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Vikings were a 4th-and-20 stop away from a respectable 3-4 record. After zero turnovers and 9.3 YPA in his first two games, Teddy Bridgewater has six and 5.5 YPA in two since. A good spot to turn it around with Tampa ranked 32nd against the pass (294.5 YPG), one of four teams allowing 20-plus FPPG to opposing QB. Cordarrelle Patterson managed to continue his awful play even while scoring his first TD since Week 1. Patterson has exactly two catches in four straight, no more than six points in six straight and 21 points since opening day (3.5 FPPG). However, this might be the week he erupts with Bucs allowing easily the most fantasy points to opposing WR (31.0 FPPG). Jerick McKinnon could be a top-15 running back ROS; 57 of his 103 rushing yards (second 100-yard effort in four games) came after contact, an AP-esque average of 3.0 YAC per carry. Excluding that TNF nightmare in GB, the rookie averages 111.7 YFS per game (335 total) since being inserted into the lineup. McKinnon is a borderline top-10 play against Tampa Bay's 25th-ranked run defense (128.3 YPG) allowing the fifth-most points to RB (20.8 FPPG). ... For his sake, hopefully Lovie Smith used the bye to figure out how to improve his 32nd-ranked defense (422.8 YPG). Although Josh McCown (thumb) resumed practicing, Mike Glennon, clearly the better quarterback, is expected to start. Glennon, who has two 300-yard games in his last three, posted exactly two TD and at least 7.1 YPA and 15 fantasy points in three straight games. Accuracy is always an issue (less than 60 percent in each start), but he gives them the best chance to win. With a 2.9-yard average and no more than 45 rushing yards in a game, Doug Martin is dangerously close to riding pine. This may be his last chance to get on track with Vikings allowing the sixth-most points to opposing RB (20.6 FPPG). After just 144 yards (36 YPG) through four games, Vincent Jackson had his two highest yardage outputs in his last two, 210 yards total (105 per). Jackson has at least 10 targets in each of Glennon's three starts, averaging exactly that for the year. With TB listening to trade offers, expect more of the same. Mike Evans, at least four catches in every game, scored a TD and 11-plus points in each of his last two outings.
Predictions:Jerick McKinnon continues to impress with 136 total yards (108 rushing) and his first career touchdown. Cordarrelle Patterson scores from 71 yards out, finishing with 127 on the day. Vincent Jackson posts his final 100-yard game and TD as a Buccaneer before being traded next Monday (KC, SEA, NE?). Doug Martin turns the clock back to 2012 with 141 YFS, 118 on the ground, and a score. Coin flip game, could see it going either way, but take the Bucs at home in a squeaker. Tampa Bay, 24-23.
Philadelphia (+2.5) at Arizona, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Last time we saw the Eagles they destroyed the Giants, rushing for more than 200 yards and notching their first shutout since 1996. Now 12-2 in their last 14, Philadelphia scored 21-plus points in every game since Week 8 of 2013. LeSean McCoy finally got going with 149 yards on 22 carries (6.8 YPC), averaging more than 4.0 YPC for the first time all year. While McCoy looked outstanding, there's no guarantee that continues; Arizona's run defense is No. 1 in both YPC (3.2) and yards (72.5 YPG), and allows the fourth-fewest FPPG to opposing RB (10.7). Darren Sproles (sprained MCL) is on track to play, getting in a limited practice Wednesday. Poor all year, but No. 19 QB Nick Foles has been awful since Week 4. After starting the season with three straight 300-yard games (978 yards, 326 per), Foles hasn't topped 248 in his last three (650 yards, 216.7 YPG). He's been a turnover machine, giving it up twice each game during that span and 10 times overall. After a 27:2 TD:INT ratio and 9.1 YPA in 2013, the real Nick Foles has stood up (10:7, 6.9 YPA). Jeremy Maclin, eighth among receivers with 10.8 FPPG, has five points or less in two of his last three games after 10-plus in four of his first five. He was targeted just three times against NYG after seeing at least nine in every game prior. Arizona's 31st-ranked pass defense (284.8 YPG) allows 25.2 FPPG to WR (fifth most), presenting a nice matchup. Zach Ertz is 13th in TE scoring but has yet to catch more than four passes in a game. ... Carson Palmer, ranking sixth among quarterbacks with 18 FPPG, has exactly two touchdowns and 16-plus points in each of his three starts. Palmer has been sacked four times in this three games, no more than twice in any game, but Philly can get after the quarterback (19 this season, six last game). Larry Fitzgerald, coming off a season-low 21 yards, averages just 47.2 yards and 6.5 targets per game. Fitzgerald has just one touchdown and one game of more than five points this season. Michael Floyd scored 10-plus points in four of six games but just one point in the other two combined. Andre Ellington, ninth among running backs with 71 points, has 397 total yards over his last three games (132.2 per). Although he's only done so in one game all year, Ellington hopes to find the end zone against Philly's 23rd-ranked rush defense (124.3 YPG).
Predictions:LeSean McCoy has little room to run, but manages 87 yards and a touchdown. Shadowed by Patrick Peterson all day, Maclin is limited to 57 yards. Zach Ertz hits pay dirt for a second straight game. Andre Ellington tallies 111 total yards, 61 via the pass. Larry Fitzgerald secures six of eight targets for 78 yards and a TD. In a battle of 5-1 teams, well-rested Eagles win on the road. Philadelphia, 24-21.
Oakland (+7) at Cleveland, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Raiders, the last remaining winless team, are going to get their first W at some point -- very well could be this week. Darren McFadden, averaging almost 14 carries per game since Week 2, is running fairly well recently without much help from his offensive line. This is an ideal spot for his first 100-yard game since Week 2 of 2013 against Cleveland's 32nd-ranked run defense (155.5 YPG, 5.0 YPC) that allows 21.3 FPPG to RB (fourth most). Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be a non-factor, but don't be surprised if Latavius Murray gets a long look later in the season. Derek Carr came back to earth after his four-TD game, passing for a season-low 173 yards and no touchdowns. Andre Holmes and James Jones were both limited to three fantasy points against Arizona, Jones' lowest output all year. I'll be interested to see which player Joe Haden follows in this game, if at all. ... Browns blew a golden opportunity to go 4-2, no-showing against Jacksonville. Brian Hoyer committed a season-high two turnovers, completing a pathetic 39 percent of his passes (5.2 YPA). Hoyer should rebound nicely; opposing quarterbacks have an 11:3 TD:INT ratio and 7.9 YPA (27th in NFL) against Oakland. Like his quarterback, Jordan Cameron was miserable against JAX, registering just one catch for five yards on six targets. Cameron's hauled in three passes or fewer in every game and scored more than four fantasy points just once. One of the lone week seven bright spots, Andrew Hawkins, thanks to at least nine targets in all but one game, has five or more receptions and 70-plus yards in four of six. Losing center Alex Mack clearly affected the running game with both Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell establishing season lows in YPC (2.3, 2.6) and yards (36, 18). After at least 5.6 YPC in each of his first two starts, Tate averaged 3.1 or fewer his last two. With Raiders allowing the second-most FPPG to RB (22.8), chances are the duo gets back on track this week.
Predictions:Darren McFadden rips off 121 yards and a touchdown. Tate rushes for 84 yards and scores, Crowell 64. Jordan Cameron captures six of nine targets for 88 yards and a TD. Tempted to pick OAK, but Browns can't overlook their opponent following last week's stinker. However, winless teams getting at least seven points are 30-12 ATS (71.4 percent) after Week 6. Raiders cover. Cleveland, 20-17.
Indianapolis (-3) at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Indianapolis rolls into Pittsburgh on a five-game winning streak with the top-ranked offense (452.9 YPG) and No. 3 defense (311.1). Andrew Luck, first in total points (165) and second in FPPG (23.6), has at least two touchdowns and 18 fantasy points in every game and 300-plus yards in six of seven. Third-leading receiver T.Y. Hilton (711 yards thanks to 100-yard efforts in three of his last four) sits eighth at his position with 75 points. Hilton has at least six catches and 90 yards in four straight games, five and 80 in five straight. Although he has just one double-digit scoring game, losing Reggie Wayne (elbow) for the next game or two hurts. Hakeem Nicks, while more talented, is unreliable -- he hasn't topped three catches or 29 yards in four straight games. Dwayne Allen, seventh at his position, has a TD and nine-plus fantasy points in five of seven despite no more than four receptions in any game this season. Although rolling with at least 11 points in five of his last six games, No. 6 RB Ahmad Bradshaw seems like a sell-high; his six receiving touchdowns are double his career total entering 2014. Trent Richardson is coming off his best game of the year with 118 total yards and 5.5 YPC, but iffy with a hamstring injury. Steelers gave up 290 rush yards combined (HOU: 132, CLE: 158) in their last two games. ... After scoring just 20 points in its previous 169 minutes, Pittsburgh dropped 24 on the Texans on Monday in the span of three minutes. Ben Roethlisberger exceeded 16 fantasy points just once so far and faces a Colts defense allowing 12.6 FPPG to QB, second fewest in the league. Top-scoring fantasy wideout Antonio Brown (105 points) defines consistency. Brown -- at least five catches and 84 yards every game -- averages 9.7 YPT and 15 FPPG (22 in PPR formats). Martavis Bryant didn't disappoint, hauling in a beautiful 35-yard TD catch in his debut. Vontae Davis and Greg Toler have been tough on receivers, allowing the fewest points to the position (12.6). No. 4 RB Le'Veon Bell (98 points) is second to DeMarco Murray with 938 total yards (599 rush, 339 receiving). Beyond matchup-proof, Bell and Murray are the only backs in football with at least 105 total yards and 10 fantasy points in every game. Although top 10 against both pass (fifth) and rush (ninth), you're better off running on Indy as it allows 4.6 YPC (26th in NFL).
Predictions:Andrew Luck passes for 314 yards and two scores, running in a third. Hakeem Nicks steps up in Wayne's absence with 88 yards and a touch on seven catches. Antonio Brown is held in check, managing just 73 yards on eight receptions. Le'Veon Bell tallies 129 total yards (48 receiving), scoring as a runner and receiver. Martavis Bryant catches a goal-line fade for his second TD in as many games. Colts win their sixth in a row. Indianapolis, 27-21.
Green Bay (+1.5) at New Orleans, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Shocking that 5-2 Packers are getting points against a 2-4 Saints bunch, even on the road. Aaron Rodgers, whose 141 points are tied with Philip Rivers for third among QB, has at least three touchdowns in four straight games and 24-plus points in three of those. Expect more of the same against New Orleans' 28th-ranked pass defense (270.5 YPG). Randall Cobb (8) and Jordy Nelson (6) have been the recipients on 14 of Rodgers' 18 TD passes. Both players have scored in four straight games and have five over that span. Nelson, second in yards (712) and fantasy points (103) among receivers, has at least 12 points his last four games. No. 4 WR Randall Cobb has 11-plus points in five of seven games, nine or more in six. Eddie Lacy, 13th among running backs, rebounded nicely from that horrendous start with four touchdowns and 52 points (13 per) his last four outings. Lacy may return to his workhorse duties with James Starks, who had been splitting snaps almost evenly for the past month, iffy with an ankle injury. New Orleans is 11th against the rush, allowing 103.2 YPG. ... Shockingly, can't even call this game a must-win considering the Saints' division. As bad as it's played, NO is half a game out of first, dead even in the loss column. No. 14 QB Drew Brees still hasn't thrown more than two touchdowns in any game despite averaging 319.3 YPG. Brees has also been uncharacteristically turnover-prone with interceptions in five of six games, seven in all. Jimmy Graham (shoulder) was held catchless against DET despite playing 30 snaps. Still eighth in TE scoring, but Graham has just two receptions for 36 yards on seven targets combined the last two games and no more than five points in three of four. Brandin Cooks has just 22 points in five games since exploding for 14 in his professional debut. Despite averaging 8.2 YPC and 6.3 YPT, Cooks has five more targets (44) than Marques Colston, who's earned more considering his 9.2 YPT and a career-high 17.9 YPC. Travaris Cadet should see increased work in the passing game with Pierre Thomas expected to miss a few weeks. Primary ballcarrier Mark Ingram will lead the way against Green Bay's miserable 31st-ranked run defense (147.9 YPG).
Predictions: In a sensational quarterback duel, Rodgers and Brees combine for 731 yards and six touchdowns, the exact total from the 2011 season-opening shootout. Eddie Lacy rushes for 86 yards, Ingram 91; both score. Nelson and Cobb combine for 193 yards and two TD. Jimmy Graham puts up 95 and a touch. My best bet of the week. Green Bay 35-31.
Washington (+9.5) at Dallas, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: The Redskins snapped a four-game skid against Tennessee, but head into Dallas 2-5 with Colt McCoy as their starting quarterback. McCoy has a career 76.1 passer rating, 6.3 YPA and 22:20 TD:INT ratio. Remember when people thought Kirk Cousins was better than Robert Griffin III? RG3's return (ankle) couldn't come soon enough. No. 12 WR Desean Jackson defines the hit-or-miss player: 11 total points in four awful games and 55 in three monster outings (17-plus in each). Pierre Garcon, 23rd among WR, scored touchdowns and 23 total points in his last two games following consecutive two-point performances. Alfred Morris has 124 yards on 44 carries (2.8 YPC) for no TD and 12 fantasy points in his last three games combined (41.3 YPG). Somehow, Morris is still 12th in RB scoring (62 points), but could turn it around with Dallas allowing 4.9 YPC (30th in NFL). Jordan Reed, with 10-plus PPR points in both games since returning to the lineup, will be a weekly TE1 as long as he's healthy. Cowboys have allowed second-most yards (541), touchdowns (seven) and fantasy points (12.0 per) to opposing TE. ... Dallas, riding a six-game winning streak, just might be the best team in the NFC. Tony Romo, 10th among quarterbacks with 114 points, has at least two TD and 15 points in five straight games. No team allows more points to opposing QB than the Redskins at 20.9. Dez Bryant is tied for sixth-most points (80) at his position, hitting double digits in five of seven games and catching nine-plus balls in three. However, Bryant hasn't found the endzone in consecutive games after doing so in four straight. No. 11 WR Terrance Williams is the new Cris Carter: all he does is catch touchdowns with six of his 19 receptions going for six. DeMarco Murray broke the tie with Jim Brown by rushing for 100-plus yards in his seventh straight game to open the season. Averaging 26.7 carries with at least 22 each week, Murray is on pace to break Larry Johnson's record of 416 (pacing 427). The NFL's leading rusher by 298 yards has a ridiculous 16 or more fantasy points in every game. Washington allows third-fewest FPPG to RB (10.6), but that's going up.
Predictions: Murray grinds out 109 yards, extending the streak and reaching 1,000 rushing yards in his eighth game. Tony Romo passes for a season-high 331 yards and three scores. Dez Bryant embarrasses David Amerson for 129 of those and two touchdowns. Jordan Reed pairs 79 yards with his first TD this season. Alfred Morris rushes for 89 and a score. That's a huge number, but Colt McCoy really is that bad. Cowboys cover. Dallas, 27-17.
