This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Bye: New Orleans, Kansas City
Stat of the Week: teams that win the turnover battle cover 77 percent of the time
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston, Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: First place is on the line as both AFC South squads enter 3-2. However, Indianapolis rolls in on a three-game winning streak while Houston has dropped two of three. Interesting to see if we can buck the trend of Thursday night blowouts (205-60 point differential, 41-12 average score). Andrew Luck was finally held to fewer than three TD, but remains fantasy's top QB (122 points, 24.4 PPG). Luck's 16 total touchdowns are three clear of everyone else, and he has the eighth (Reggie Wayne) and ninth (T.Y. Hilton) leading receivers at his disposal. Oddly enough, Hilton is one of just five players averaging 10-plus targets per game. Just one score between the pair, both are better in PPR formats. Talent is clearly winning out with Dwayne Allen emerging as the go-to TE over Coby Fleener, particularly in the RZ. Houston allows fourth-fewest points (4.6), but Allen is a top-10 TE. Trent Richardson has surpassed 4.0 YPC in two of three games after not exceeding that threshold in 18 straight. Ahmad Bradshaw, sixth among RB, finally out-touched Richardson against Baltimore, 19-13. Colts runners have a strong matchup with Texans allowing 132.2 YPG (25th in NFL). ... Houston exemplifies "bend but don't break" philosophy, ranking 26th in total defense (385.4 YPG) but allowing just 17.4 PPG (4th). Sporting the most run-heavy offense in the league, this is still the Arian Foster Show we're accustomed to. Foster, fifth among RB (62 points, 15.5 PPG), has at least 23 carries and 100 yards in three of four starts. DeAndre Hopkins, a top-10 WR, is catching 77 percent of his targets and averaging 11.4 YPT. Clearly the best wideout on his team, Hopkins has more points than Andre Johnson in all five games despite fewer targets in every outing. The Colts allow the second-fewest points to WR, but Johnson torched them for 9-229-3 last year in Reliant Stadium. After starting the season 3:0, Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 2:6 TD:INT ratio in his last three games.
Predictions:Andrew Luck throws for 261 yards and two scores. T.Y. Hilton burns Johnathan Joseph for his first TD (and 40-yard reception) of 2014. Arian Foster keeps Luck on the sideline and Houston close with 24-103-1. Andre Johnson finally outscores his teammate with a 15-point night. Indianapolis, 24-20.
Denver (-7.5) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: If you haven't used the Broncos in Survivor, now would be the week to do so. Possibly the best receiver corps in football gets a NY defense allowing the sixth-most points to WR. Demaryius Thomas looked healthy jump-starting his season with a career-high 226 yards, which easily could've been 9-303-3 had Julius Tomas not cut-blocked on his 77-yard score. Clearly busting out of his mini-slump (5.2 YPT through first three games), DT is now the eighth highest-scoring WR. Emmanuel Sanders, sixth in receiving yards, has surpassed the century mark in three of four games. His 108.8 YPG are second only to Julio Jones. Wes Welker has at least six catches and nine targets in each of his two games. Peyton Manning, second with 23.5 PPG, should have little trouble with the Jets, who allow 20.6 PPG to QB (fourth-most). After a career-high 479 yards, Manning is on pace for 5,172 and 48 TD. Julius Thomas leads the league with 7 scores, accounting for over half of Manning's 12 and on pace for an NFL-record 28. By far the best TE in fantasy, Thomas is averaging 15.5 PPG. Ronnie Hillman is one of the best adds of the week with Montee Ball (groin) out at least 2-3 games. However, that backfield is crowded with C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson in the mix. Hillman was passed over for Knowshon Moreno in a similar situation two years ago when Willis McGahee went down, but is the most dynamic of the three. That committee will be tested with NYJ allowing just 11.2 points to RB and 83.0 rush YPG (sixth in both categories). ... After gaining just 151 total yards last week, fewest in the Rex Ryan era, NY is riding their first four-game losing streak in seven years. Geno Smith has 3:20 TD:INT with 10-plus yards to go on the down in his career, 27 picks in 21 starts -- and is still the starter. How? Michael Vick gives that team the best chance to win. Chris Ivory (9 for 44) outplays Chris Johnson (7 for 24) on a weekly basis. Great matchup with Denver allowing the fourth-most points to opposing RB, but Ivory is the only one you can trust. Eric Decker (hamstring) will play against his former team after wisely being held out in week 5. Don't expect much against Aqib Talib and DEN defense allowing the fifth-fewest points to WR.
Predictions:Peyton Manning throws for 400-plus yards again with 411 and four TD. Demaryius Thomas joins Josh Gordon as the only receivers with consecutive 200-yard games. Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders catch their first touchdowns of the year. Michael Vick leads NY on a couple late scoring drives with Geno Smith getting the early hook after two first-half picks. Jets drop to 0-6 ATS. Denver, 38-14.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cleveland, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: An opening day rematch, with Pittsburgh nearly blowing a 24-point halftime lead in week 1. Steelers are coming off a poor offensive performance (just 17 points, one by the defense) against lowly JAX. Ben Roethlisberger has completed more than 72 percent in three straight, throwing for six TD and no INT over that span. Big Ben faces the 28th-ranked pass defense (269 YPG) allowing 8.1 YPA (30th). His primary target, Antonio Brown, kept his streak alive with five more catches. Brown has 81 points (first), 511 yards (third) and has owned Joe Haden, with 20-295-2 over their last three meetings. Markus Wheaton is coming off his worst game this year (1-17 on 2 targets). Second-leading rusher Le'Veon Bell (460 yards) has surpassed 100 YFS in every game. His 688 total yards trail only DeMarco Murray, and are the reason he's the No. 3 fantasy RB (shockingly, just one TD). Bell could be in for a monster day with Browns allowing 152.5 yards on the ground (29th), 5.1 YPC (30th) and 21.8 fantasy points to RB (third-most). ... Cleveland looks to start 3-2 for the second straight season, fresh off an NFL-record 25-point road comeback victory. Watching this team is a thrill, with all four games decided by three points or less. Brian Hoyer, forced out of his game-manager role, answered the call with his best game of the season. Johnny Manziel may not see the field at all with Hoyer's sound play (252 YPG, 7.6 YPA, 62.8%, 6:1 TD:INT). PPR machine Andrew Hawkins had his first poor game but saw at least nine targets every week. Thought to be an elite TE1 in 2014, Jordan Cameron has severely disappointed, being held under 50 yards in each game. Make him prove his way into your lineup. Ben Tate (knee) was terrific with 123 yards on 22 carries in his return. Of course, it's only a matter of time until he gets hurt again.
Predictions:Le'Veon Bell continues to pile up yards with 141 from scrimmage, making it six straight adding a TD to boot. Antonio Brown again has his way with Joe Haden for 7-91-1. Ben Tate rushes for 107 yards and a score. Hoyer plays well, but Big Ben leads a late drive to set up the game-winning FG. Pittsburgh, 24-23.
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Tennessee, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Jacksonville was finally in a game last week, losing by just one score after 17-plus point defeats in their first four. Unfortunately, Blake Bortles has played progressively worse: YPA, passer rating and touchdowns have gone down every game while throwing exactly two picks in each. Not an ideal spot to right the ship against Tennessee's 13th-ranked pass defense. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each had 11 targets with Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee sidelined with hamstring injuries. Forget about Toby Gerhart as a fantasy option this season. Gerhart, Storm Johnson and Denard Robinson all had 4-5 touches against Pittsburgh. ... Overlooking the Jags won't be an issue after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory vs. CLE. Jake Locker had the best total QBR of Week 5 (99.2); unfortunately, he couldn't finish the game. Again. Charlie Whitehurst has played well when called upon with 8.4 YPA, but is a career 54.8-percent passer with 5.9 YPA. If Locker (thumb) can play, the matchup is cake with JAX allowing third-most 21.0 PPG to QB. Justin Hunter caught just nine of 26 targets (34.6 percent, last among 156 qualified receivers) before finally showing up Week 5. However, the majority of his production came on a 75-yard TD and long scores are unpredictable, even for big-play guys. Although Jacksonville allows fifth-most points to WR, Hunter remains a risk/reward flex play. Kendall Wright scored twice against CLE, but hasn't exceeded 55 yards yet and averages just 8.9 YPC and 5.9 YPT. Despite coming off season-lows in points (5) and targets (4), Delanie Walker is a top-five tight end (52 points, just 4 behind No. 2) with an outstanding matchup (JAX second-worst against TE, 12.6 PPG). After all the talk surrounding Bishop Sankey finally overtaking Shonn Greene, he received just eight carries to Greene's 11. Even against Jacksonville, allowing second-most points to RB (22.0), you can't confidently start Sankey-not until Ken Whisenhunt wises up.
Predictions:Bishop Sankey maximizes his 12 touches, gaining 78 yards and scoring. Delanie Walker collects seven for 68 yards. Justin Hunter hits another deep ball for a 58-yard TD. Jags cover for the first time, but Blake Bortles' INT ends it. Tennessee, 23-19.
Green Bay (-3.5) at Miami, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Both teams well rested with Miami coming off a bye and Green Bay last playing Thursday. At one point, Pack went on a 66-0 run (last 24 points vs. CHI, first 42 vs. MIN). In three wins, Aaron Rodgers has 10 TD and 9.2 YPA compared to just two and 5.9 in two losses. Rodgers has a tough matchup against Miami's ninth-ranked pass defense (215 YPG) allowing just 6.0 YPA (t-fewest) and 12.8 PPG (third-fewest) to QB. Jordy Nelson, one of three players with double-digit RZ targets (11) is second in receiving yards and fantasy points, netting 10.1 YPT. Randall Cobb is the No.5 WR thanks to six TD, most at his position. Yardage totals must increase for him to stay there; scoring on 25 percent of receptions is unsustainable. Cobb should shatter his career-high nine touchdowns (1 return), set in 2012. In fact, he's on pace for 19, more than his career total entering 2014 (13 receiving, 3 return). Oh, Eddie Lacy is back. Lacy looked outstanding against Minnesota (13-105-2), breaking tackles and finishing off runs like 2013. Should keep it going against Miami's middle-of-the-road run defense (107.3 YPG, 13th in NFL). ... Last seen destroying OAK across the pond, Joe Philbin's head games worked on Ryan Tannehill, inspiring his best game this season (74.2 percent, 9.0 YPA). A stiffer test against GB, who allows just 12.8 PPG to QB (fourth fewest). Mike Wallace has now scored in seven of 10 games. Lamar Miller is averaging 86 rushing yards and a score over his last two, clearly an RB2 when starting. He's surpassd 4.0 YPC in every game, 5.7 overall. Hopefully you sold high on Miller last week when Knowshon Moreno (elbow) hinted at missing another month; Moreno is practicing and could return Sunday. You may get one more sell-high opportunity with GB allowing 163.0 YPG (dead last) and 20.8 points to RB (sixth-most).
Predictions:Eddie Lacy backs up his breakout performance with 89 more yards and a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers cools off slightly, throwing for 264 yards and two scores. Jordy Nelson catches one, Jarrett Boykin the other. Lamar Miller's stellar play continues with 109 yards and a TD. Ryan Tannehill regresses, throwing two costly picks. Pack covers on the road. Green Bay, 30-23.
Detroit (-1.5) at Minnesota, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Detroit just doesn't handle success well. The 3-1 division leaders favored at home by a touchdown, up 14-0 ... only the Lions lose that game. Shocker, Alex Henery no longer employed after missing three FG against Buffalo. DET is 1-of-9 on FG over 30 yards in 2014, prompting it to sign Matt Prater. Matthew Stafford has been held to less than 300 yards in four straight. Stafford is highly Megatron-dependant, and not an ideal spot to break that streak as Minnesota allows just 226 YPG through the air, 11th in NFL. His offensive line also needs to give him more time (six sacks last week). Considering Roddy White and C.J. Spiller's ankle injuries last season, owners should be relieved to hear Calvin Johnson will be held out 1-2 games. Fifth-leading receiver (451 yards) Golden Tate is just outside No. 1 territory now (13th) and should be in the low-end WR1 conversation during that span. With Johnson limited/out, Tate has 15 catches for 250 yards on 20 targets in two games. Joique Bell (concussion) could be out again, but Reggie Bush (ankle) should play against a run defense allowing 121.8 YPG (19th). ... Vikings are 26th in PPG (20.2) and Lions allow just 15.8 (2nd), a clear mismatch. Not that fantasy prospects are great with DET allowing just 11.2 PPG to QB (fewest in NFL), but Teddy Bridgewater (ankle) will play. Christian Ponder has no business on an NFL roster -- that performance was pathetic: 50 percent completion, 5.0 YPA, two horrible interceptions. After his goose egg, Cordarrelle Patterson has just 17 points since week 1, 4.25 PPG. His YPT aren't terrible (7.6), he's just not involved. Patterson received a mere five targets per and no more than seven in any game. Bench Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon against Detroit's fourth-ranked run defense (74.4 YPG), Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley present a much greater challenge than GB and those two combined for just nine fantasy points against the Pack.
Predictions: Stafford demonstrates why we downgrade him with Calvin out, throwing for just 241 yards and one TD. Golden Tate steps up again with 101 yards. Joique Bell scores from close range. Asiata and McKinnon struggle their way to just 73 yards combined. Cordarrelle Patterson finally makes an impact with 14 fantasy points. Detroit, 19-16.
Carolina (+7) at Cincinnati, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments:Cam Newton didn't do much with his season-high six carries (9 yards) but the designed runs and increased volume should be encouraging to fantasy owners. Barring injury, Newton's value will steadily increase throughout the year as his ankle and ribs get healthier and he gets comfortable with these receivers. With Cincy allowing the sixth-fewest points to QB (13.0), that won't start here. Kelvin Benjamin had a down game (3-38), but the silver lining is 11 targets. Benjamin is one of the eight most targeted players in the league at 9.4 per game. Greg Olsen, top-three at the position with 55 points, was the TE start of the week with his third career multi-TD game. Against the 27th-ranked run defense (140.0 YPG), Panthers need Jonathan Stewart (knee) back in the worst way. While allowing 220 on the ground to the Pats was an anomaly, you can run on the Bengals -- just not with Darrin Reaves and Chris Ogbonnaya. Avoid Carolina's defense: negative points two weeks in a row before Sunday, playing a CIN offense allowing –1.0 PPG (best in NFL) to opposing DST prior to last week's debacle. ... Cincinnati couldn't secure its first 4-0 start since 2005, crumbling under the bright lights. NE bounce-back was to be expected, but pitiful performance coming off the bye. With this more conservative offensive approach, Andy Dalton has avoided turnovers that plagued him in years past but thrown just four TD. A.J. Green aggravated his toe injury during warm-ups Wednesday, unfortunate considering the plus matchup against inferior Panther corners. Green is averaging a ridiculous 12.6 YPT, a drastic improvement from 2011-2013 (9.2, 8.2, 8.0). Marvin Jones can't catch a break, injuring his ankle the first practice back from a broken foot. Once he gets in full swing and Tyler Eifert returns, this offense should regain its 2013 explosiveness. Giovani Bernard, ninth in RB fantasy points (55), is fourth on a per-game basis (13.75). He and Jeremy Hill should have little trouble with CAR defense just lit up by Matt Forte and allowing seventh-most points to RB.
Predictions: With Carolina one-dimensional, Cam Newton plays sloppy, turning it over twice. Kelvin Benjamin hauls in a goal-line fade amongst 71 yards. With A.J. Green out, Cincy leans on the running game. Giovani Bernard tallies 138 total yards and scores, Jeremy Hill rushes for 58 and a touch. Bengals rebound, making it 12 straight at home. Cincinnati, 21-10.
New England (-3.5) at Buffalo, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Similar to IND/HOU, first place is on the line between 3-2 teams. NE has won five straight over BUF. Last week Patriots got back to what they do best, double-tight formations, allowing Tom Brady to shred CIN on the seams. Brady looking better doesn't necessarily make him a must-start. That was still his first multi-TD, 250-yard game in his last seven. Rob Gronkowski is trending upward, getting healthier each week. Gronk finally topped 44 yards and already matched his 2013 TD total (4). Not all sunshine and rainbows, however-Julian Edelman has just 58 yards over his last two games after 81-plus in each of his first three. Nothing to panic about, Edelman still saw eight targets both games. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen combined for 203 of their 220 rushing yards week 5, but Buffalo's second-ranked run defense (in both YPG, 71.0, and YPC, 3.0) is no joke. Also, it was easily the highest output of the season for both Ridley (113) and Vereen (108 total, 90 rush). ... Bills won the first down battle for the first time (19-13) while crawling out of that 0-14 hole to beat DET. Outside of the early pick-six Kyle Orton played well, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. Orton was a significant upgrade over EJ Manuel, a huge boost to the fantasy value and consistency of Sammy Watkins. Not that you're starting Orton, but NE allows just 12.2 PPG to quarterbacks (2nd in NFL). After 12 more Sunday, Watkins has seen at least eight targets in every game since week 1 and averaging 10 per over those four games. However, this matchup is brutal against Darrelle Revis and NE allowing the third-fewest points to WR. With 107 total yards on 17 touches, Fred Jackson has outplayed C.J. Spiller three straight games. After scoring in each of his first two games, Spiller hasn't found the end zone since. Only 1 of 5 games over 4.0 YPC, and averaging a career-low 3.5 YPC. Unfortunately, his breakout 2012 season seems like an aberration; hopefully he gets traded to a team that understands how to properly use his talent.
Predictions: Bills stop the run, forcing Tom Brady to chuck it 44 times. Brady throws for 287 yards and two TD but two costly TO keep BUF in it. Surprise, surprise: Gronk scores again. C.J. Spiller finally breaks out, with a 56-yard score among his 121 yards. Revis shuts down Watkins, limiting to three receptions on nine targets. Robert Woods scores on recently activated Brandon Browner. New England, 24-21.
Baltimore (-3.5) at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments:Joe Flacco came back to reality with 6.2 YPA and eight fantasy points after his 25-point outburst Week 4. Even though Tampa picked off Drew Brees three times last week, it ranks 30th against the pass (292 YPG) and allows 8.0 YPA. NFL's fourth-leading receiver (463 yards), Steve Smith, is still sixth in fantasy points (60) despite his first poor game, finally out-gained by Torrey Smith. Both Smith's are playable this week against TB allowing third-most points to WR. A top-8 RB now, Justin Forsett represents one of the best sell-high opportunities going. Forsett averages only 10 carries per game and had just nine career scores entering 2014 (3 in 5 games this season). His off-the-charts efficiency, at least 5.7 YPC in four of five games and 4.7-plus in all, is unsustainable. Furthermore, at 5-foot-8, 197, the 28-year-old journeyman doesn't have ideal size to be a three-down back. While neither is very talented, Lorenzo Taliaferro and Bernard Pierce aren't going away and will get more of the workload when Baltimore goes into clock-killing mode. This week's opponent is a top-10 run defense on a per-carry basis (3.9). ... Buccaneers blew a 31-20 fourth-quarter lead in the Superdome last week. Doubful Josh McCown ever gets his job back with Mike Glennon's solid play continuing. Nobody is happier to hear that than Vincent Jackson, who finally got going with 8-144 on 12 targets. Back to WR2 status, Jackson has 31 targets and 30 fantasy points in three games with Glennon. Disappointing vs. NO (two drops on 3 targets), this isn't the week to play Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Huge talent, but still learning and Ravens allow just 4.8 PPG to opposing TE. For the second straight year Doug Martin is killing fantasy owners. Martin averages just 2.5 YPC (3.2 or less every week) and 48.7 YFS, yet to exceed 45 rushing or 74 total yards in a game. Unlikely those numbers improve with Baltimore allowing fourth-fewest PPG to RB. Bobby Rainey received 20 snaps to Martin's 34 and will be summoned if Martin continues to struggle.
Predictions: Steve and Torrey Smith both score touchdowns and 12-plus fantasy points. Doug Martin's ineptitude persists with just 61 total yards. Vincent Jackson beats up on Lardarius Webb in his first start of the year (Asa Jackson placed on IR) for his second straight 100-yard game, finishing with 6-124-1. Bucs pull the upset. Tampa Bay, 20-17.
San Diego (-7.5) at Oakland, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Sitting atop the AFC at 4-1, SD is unequivocally a top-five team in the NFL. Philip Rivers, second in fantasy points (102) and passing TD (12), leads the early MVP race. Rivers has three TD and 21-plus points in three of his last four. Despite allowing a league-high 72.4 completion percentage, Oakland's fourth-ranked pass defense (202 YPG) surrenders just 14.3 points to opposing QB. As expected, Eddie Royal came back down to earth after consecutive multi-score games. Keenan Allen has been unexpectedly dreadful in 2014, averaging 7.5 YPT (10.1 last season) and just more than seven targets per game (36 total). Throw out a 13-point Week 4, and he has 11 points combined in four games. Regression was expected, but this is ridiculous. Branden Oliver filled in admirably for a concussed Donald Brown, totaling 182 total yards (114 rush, 68 receiving) and two scores against NYJ, who dominate opposing backs. With Brown likely out (or benched if active) and Ryan Mathews' return still a couple weeks away, Oliver is a top-10 play this week against OAK D allowing fifth-most points to RB. Antonio Gates found the fountain of youth, the second-leading scorer at his position with 56 points. ... Oakland hasn't scored more than 14 points in any game and averages 12.75 per while San Diego allows just 12.6 PPG, best in the NFL. Derek Carr (knee, ankle) is practicing this week and expects to play. With Rod Streater on IR, the Raiders added another No. 3 WR in Kenbrell Thompkins to go along with their other two, James Jones and Denarius Moore. Avoid them all; SD allows the fewest fantasy points to WR. Expect OAK to run more under interim coach Tony Sparano after doing so a league-low 31.5 percent of the time under Dennis Allen. Darren McFadden out-snapped (46-17) and out-touched (15-4) Maurice Jones-Drew against MIA; keep an eye on distribution.
Predictions: With SD playing with a lead, Rivers passes just 29 times for 237 yards and two TD. Keenan Allen finally scores his first touchdown. Branden Oliver tallies 108 total yards and a score. DMC rushes for 64 yards, finding the end zone once. Oakland plays with renewed enthusiasm under Sparano coming off the bye, keeping it close enough to cover. San Diego, 24-17.
Chicago (+3.5) at Atlanta, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: In a game featuring two of the biggest carnivals this side of New Orleans, I'll take the over. Both offenses potent, both defenses putrid; start everyone. After a come-from-ahead loss that saw it blow a 21-7 lead, Chicago needs this victory. The Bears can ill afford to lose more ground in the NFC North. Jay Cutler, third among QB with 95 fantasy points, has scored two-plus TD in every game. He may never stop turning it over, but they're not nearly as costly in fantasy football as they are for the Bears. Cutler has a great matchup with ATL allowing 8.2 YPA (31st). Favorite target Brandon Marshall is averaging a pathetic 5.1 YPT this season, proof his ankle clearly isn't right. Alshon Jeffery, coming off a season-high 15 points, scored in two straight after no TD through three games. However, Jeffery has been targeted seven times or fewer in four of five games. Coming off his best game of the year (166 total yards, TD), Matt Forte sits atop many RB rankings with ATL allowing 29.5 points to opposing RB, 5.4 PPG more than second-worst JAX. Forte, fourth highest-scoring RB, is a total-yardage machine (319 rush, 299 receiving) and Falcons have given up four more rush TD (9) than any team. After easily his worst game of the year, Martellus Bennett fell to fourth among TE (53 points). ... Despite struggling on the road (19.3 PPG), the Falcons lead the NFL in home scoring with 46.5 PPG. Matt Ryan is tied with Cutler as the third-highest scoring fantasy QB and second in passing yards with 1,579. Chicago allows 8.0 YPA (28th), the same number Ryan sports coming in. Leading receiver Julio Jones (552 yards) is tied with Jeremy Maclin for the league-lead in targets (57). Jones has at least six catches, 82 yards and eight targets in every game. Kyle Fuller did well against Kelvin Benjamin, but Julio is a whole different animal. Roddy White is touchdown-dependant, failing to exceed 73 yards or five receptions in any game. Steven Jackson established season highs in touches (18) and fantasy points (12), but his 2.8 YPC was a season low, and Chicago is much improved against the run (16th).
Predictions:Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan both throw for 300-plus yards and three TD. Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones both score twice and eclipse the century mark. Matt Forte is sensational, totaling 159 yards and a touch. Falcons are great at home, but more complete team wins. Chicago, 34-31.
Dallas (+8.5) at Seattle, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Are the Cowboys all of a sudden mentally tough? Gritting out their last few wins to their first 4-1 record in six years. Something has to give with DeMarco Murray and the No. 2 rushing offense (160.0 YPG) facing Seattle's top-ranked run defense (62.3 YPG, 8.8 PPG to RB). Only Jim Brown in 1958 started a season with more 100-yard games than Murray's five this year. The top fantasy RB averages 26 carries and 134 yards per game, on pace for 416 and 2,144. Jason Garrett spoke of lightening the load for his stud tailback considering Murray's never played all 16 games. Despite leading the league by a mile (670 rush yards, 190 clear of Le'Veon Bell), Murray does have four lost fumbles; something Seattle will capitalize on. Coming off a season-high 324 yards, Tony Romo is now 12th among fantasy quarterbacks and completing 69.2 percent of his passes. Romo has two of the top-10 point-scorers in Dez Bryant (7th) and Terrance Williams (9th). Bryant has scored in four straight while Williams has five TD on just 16 receptions. Jason Witten has the highest run-blocking grade of all TE according to PFF, 5.8, a big reason for Murray's success. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most points (15 per game) and second-most TD (5) to TE, making Witten a sneaky play. ... Seahawks beat the Cowboys 27-7 in their last meeting, Week 2 of 2012. Including playoffs, Seattle is 19-1 at home with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Wilson just set an MNF-record 122 rush yards (11.1 YPC) by a QB, and his 22.3 PPG trail only Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. He and Marshawn Lynch headline the No. 1 rushing offense in football (167.3 YPG, 5.4 YPC). Lynch, behind only Murray in fantasy points, has at least 117 total yards in three of four games and has scored in all four. With six total scores (3 receiving, a career high), Lynch is on pace for 24 this season. Given three long touchdowns were nullified penalty, Percy Harvin had the best two-point fantasy game in history Monday. Seahawks need to clean up those infractions, but they were the first team since the Steel Curtain to win it all as the league's most penalized squad. If you're desperate, start Luke Willson against a DAL defense allowing the most points to TE (14.0).
Predictions: After nearly picking off Kirk Cousins three times, LOB converts two errant Romo passes into INT. Hawks end Murray's 100-yard game streak. Dez Bryant avenges the 3-17-0 dud in his last trip to Seattle with 7-78-1, scoring on Richard Sherman. Marshawn Lynch has his way with the Boys, rushing for 122 yards and two TD. Harvin hits pay dirt for the first time on a beautiful throw from the most efficient QB in fantasy. Dallas hangs tough, covers the spread. Seattle, 27-23.
Washington (+3.5) at Arizona, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Timely big plays and SEA flags kept Washington in the MNF game, but Redskins had a chance nonetheless. They need more than 32 yards on the ground to win this week, but AZ is fifth against the run (76.8 YPG) and points allowed to RB. Alfred Morris is coming off his worst game this year and averaging career-lows 4.1 YPC and 69.0 YPG. After committing five turnovers the previous week, Kirk Cousins somehow avoided them against a defense that led the NFL in takeaways a season ago. It's a plus matchup for Cousins with Cards allowing fifth-most 19.0 PPG to opposing QB. DeSean Jackson defines the boom/bust play; his last four games: 1, 17, 0, 21 fantasy points. Better than Pierre Garcon, who's just been consistently terrible with a mere 4-51-0 on nine targets in his last two games combined. Maybe he can turn it around against AZ allowing the second-most points to WR. Jordan Reed (hamstring) expects to play, possibly making his return against the sixth-worst defense against TE (11.3 PPG). ... Arizona lost yet another defensive stalwart in Calais Campbell during the Denver game; that unit is being held together by tape and glue. Carson Palmer (shoulder) might play this week after throwing this week without setbacks. Timing is terrific considering Logan Thomas had to finish week 5 for Drew Stanton (concussion). If neither plays, Thomas would step into a cakewalk matchup with WSH allowing the most points to opposing QB. You would think there isn't a corner on the Redskins capable of covering either Michael Floyd or Larry Fitzgerald, but Floyd did less than nothing against Denver and Fitzgerald just established a season-high 57 yards. Andre Ellington had his best game to date with 144 yards and two TD, but faces the seventh-ranked defense against RB.
Predictions:Alfred Morris follows up his 29-yard effort with a measly 44 yards. Antonio Cromartie and Patrick Peterson get eaten alive for a second straight week, with Djack and Garcon combining for 203 yards and two scores. Alas, Larry Fitzgerald scores his first TD during a 76-yard outing. Andre Ellington compiles 103 total yards (41 receiving). Arizona, 23-20.
New York Giants (+2.5) at Philadelphia, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: New York comes in 3-2 on a three-game winning streak, which coincided with good play from the eighth-highest scoring QB, Eli Manning, who has nine total TD and just one turnover over that span. Manning has a cupcake matchup with Philly allowing 21.2 PPG to QB, 2nd-most in NFL. Of three players with 10-plus RZ targets, two are Giants: Reuben Randle (12, most) and Larry Donnell (10, third). Donnell was held without a catch by Atlanta, and PHI allows the fourth-fewest points to TE. Odell Beckham Jr.'s 4-44-1 pro debut was no fluke; he's a freak athlete and opportunities will be there with NY running more plays out of three-wide sets than any team in football. Despite a season-low 22 yards against ATL, Victor Cruz is a great start against an Eagles defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WR. Rashad Jennings, seventh in RB fantasy points, will be out a few weeks with a sprained MCL, making Andre Williams the waiver-wire pickup of the week. Despite limited receiving ability (0 catches last year at BC) and a 3.1-yard average, Williams will be the bellcow in Jennings' absence; they aren't going to Peyton Hillis. ... Eagles may be 4-1, but Nick Foles is struggling mightily with 2:3 TD:INT and averaging 201 YPG and 5.0 YPA over his last two games. Foles, barely inside the top-15 QB, has poor pocket presence and throws off his back foot far too often. Jeremy Maclin, seventh in yards and fourth in fantasy points among WR, has 11-plus targets in four of five weeks and tied for the league lead with 57. However, Prince Amukamara (4th) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (8th) are two of the 10 highest-rated cornerbacks according to PFF. It's time to worry if you own LeSean McCoy, who Numberfire estimated cost his team nearly a touchdown (-6.56 NEP) by gaining just 81 yards on 24 carries (3.4 YPC) against the Rams' 30th-ranked run defense. Having RT Lane Johnson back from suspension helps, but he's still missing two interior linemen. Foles isn't keeping defenses honest and they just don't fear Maclin like they did DeSean Jackson. Volume will be there, but teams are selling out to stop Shady. PHI has the top-scoring DST in football, but non-offensive touchdowns are unpredictable and they allow 406.2 total YPG, 28th in NFL.
Predictions:Andre Williams does next to nothing on the ground, gaining just 49 yards. Eli Manning keeps it going with 288 yards and three TD. Victor Cruz burns Cary Williams for a 38-yard score during a 97-yard day. McCoy gains 109 rushing yards against NY's 10th-ranked run defense (99.0 YPG). Maclin scores for the fifth time in six games. Could easily see the Giants winning this game, but Eagle offense has to get back on track sometime. Philadelphia, 28-24.
San Francisco (-3) at St. Louis, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments:Colin Kaepernick sits just outside the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks (11), but has an unexpectedly difficult matchup. Oddly enough considering they allow 29.8 PPG, the Rams have the No. 1 pass defense at 192.3 YPG. Expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde-San Francisco's third-ranked rushing offense averages 145 YPG while St. Louis' 30th-ranked run defense allows 152.5. Frank Gore has back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time since 2011. In three 49ers wins, Michael Crabtree has just seven fantasy points, in two losses: 28. It's not a Stevie Johnson issue, despite touchdowns in consecutive games Johnson has taken up just two targets in each. With the game Monday night, hard to trust Vernon Davis given he missed Week 5 with a back injury and has done nothing since opening day. Keep an eye on practice reports and have a backup plan in mind. ... Contrary to the popular narrative of "back the home dog," home underdogs cover just 42 percent of the time on MNF per R.J. Bell. Austin Davis nearly brought STL back from a 34-7 third-quarter deficit during a 375-yard, three-TD day against PHI. Take these numbers with a grain of salt considering they came against leaky defenses, but Davis has 702 yards and six TD over his last two games combined. That won't be the case against SF, which ranks second in total defense (202.8 YPG) and seventh against the pass (209 YPG). Brian Quick, averaging 12.0 PPG (T-6th with S. Smith), is forcing you to start him. Quick has been efficient (10.4 YPT) and seen nine targets in three of four games. Kenny Britt, more fantasy points every week, has emerged as the second option as the staff has absolutely no idea how to use Tavon Austin. Jeff Fisher said Zac Stacy (calf) will miss some practice time, but should be available. Whether it's Stacy or Benny Cunningham is irrelevant, San Fran's third-ranked run defense has surrendered just 213 yards over its last four games (53.3 per), the third-fewest fantasy points to RB, and just two rushing touchdowns all year. Jared Cook has seen 19 combined targets over his last two games, but SF allows just 5.0 PPG to TE.
Predictions:Frank Gore nabs his third straight 100-yard game, Carlos Hyde vultures the touchdown. Colin Kaepernick totals 261 yards (58 rushing) and two scores. San Fran shuts down Zac Stacy, limiting him to just 39 yards. Austin Davis and Brian Quick crumble on the big stage. Kenny Britt steps up, finishing with 5-84-1. Tavon Austin has his best game of the year with 63 YFS. San Francisco, 23-16.
