This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Byes: Miami, Oakland
Minnesota (+9.5) at Green Bay, Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Thursday games this season have been decided by 28.3 PPG (163-50). Just the fifth QB in history to throw for 300-plus yards and no INT in a debut, Teddy Bridgewater proved why pro days are overrated. Mike Zimmer is hopeful Bridgewater (ankle) will play after an MRI revealed no structural damage. If he's unable to go, Christian Ponder will start, likely destroying the fantasy value of all Vikings in the process. Cordarrelle Patterson just isn't the WR2 some predicted, scoring just 14 points since dropping 18 in the opener and catching no more than four passes in a game. Great athlete, but Patterson is a poor route runner, flat out. Anyone who's read this column knows what I think about Jerick McKinnon. With 18-135 (7.8 YPC) Sunday, McKinnon showed why I've been pounding the table for him. Matt Asiata finished second to Jamaal Charles with 27 fantasy points (thanks to 3 TD), but just 3.9 YPC. Although likely a hot-hand approach for the time being, Asiata and McKinnon have a cupcake matchup against a GB run defense allowing 176.0 YPG (dead last in the league) and fourth-most points to opposing RB. ... Aaron Rodgers was right: we can all relax. In Packer history, six times a QB has thrown for 300-plus yards and four-plus TD on a 75 completion percentage -- Rodgers now has four of the six. He reached 25k passing yards with the fewest attempts (3,065) in league history. At his disposal are two of the top five WR in fantasy, Jordy Nelson (second) and Randall Cobb (fifth). Nelson is pacing all receivers in yards (459), Cobb in touchdowns (5). Minnesota's much-improved defense will have its hands full with each coming off a 100-plus yard, two-TD game. Eddie Lacy is running out of excuses. Yet to top 3.3 YPC, 48 rush yards or 61 total yards in a game, he's no longer RB1 material. The only thing keeping him from becoming this year's Trent Richardson is the potent offense in which he plays. Lacy has just 21 points (5.2/game), one more than Redskins FB Darrel Young. Green Bay is 4-18 with Rodgers under center when scoring less than 21 points; interestingly, Minnesota allows just 21.0 PPG.
Predictions: Minnesota leans heavily on the run, letting McKinnon again showcase freakish natural ability with 98 total yards and a score. Aaron Rodgers passes for 289 yards and three TD. Packers force-feed Eddie Lacy to get him to 101 yards and a score. Cobb and Nelson both find the end zone but are held to less than 80 yards each. It's another non-competitive Thursday game. Green Bay, 31-20.
Buffalo (+7) at Detroit, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments:EJ Manuel is finally benched, and deservedly so. Per colleague Mark Stopa, Manuel was 11-of-32 for 146 yards on throws to WR/TE against HOU, with 80 of those yards coming on one broken-coverage play to Mike Williams. Many considered Manuel a first-round reach, and he's proving critics right. Kyle Orton now has the unenviable task of facing Detroit's sixth-ranked pass defense, allowing a league-low 10.5 PPG to opposing QB. Sammy Watkins has been heavily targeted the last three games (8-plus in each), he just needs someone that can get him the ball. Although DET allows the second-fewest points to opposing WR, neither Darius Slay nor Rashean Mathis can hang with Watkins if Orton has time. C.J. Spiller has been consistent with at least 13 touches and 62 total yards in every game. At some point he's going to break out, just not sure it will be this week. Holes will be few and far between for Spiller and Fred Jackson against the sixth-ranked run defense allowing 80.8 YPG (3.4 YPC). ... Matthew Stafford is more boom or bust than you'd like: 6 TD/0 TO in two games, but 1/4 in the other two. Against Buffalo's 27th-ranked pass defense (266 YPG), this could be a third strong performance. The two biggest factors will be the health of Calvin Johnson and pocket protection from Mario Williams and company. Johnson (ankle) was essentially a decoy playing at less than 100 percent (37 snaps vs. NYJ), finishing with just 12 yards -- his lowest output since 2009. Johnson has scored just 17 points since exploding for 28 week 1. Receptions, yards and YPC gone down each game. Golden Tate, coming off his first 100-yard game as a Lion, needs to step up again if Megatron is still limited. Reggie Bush could see significant volume with both Joique Bell (concussion) and Theo Riddick (hamstring) in jeopardy of missing this game. Either way, there won't be much room to run against Buffalo's third-ranked rush defense (71.5 YPG), which allows just 2.9 YPC, second in the league.
Predictions:Matthew Stafford delivers 308 yards and two touchdowns to Calvin Johnson, who rebounds from one of the worst performances of his career with 121 yards. With both Buffalo backs held in check, Kyle Orton is forced to chuck it 44 times. Results are not good. Robert Woods and Fred Jackson score for the Bills, who cover. Detroit, 23-17.
Baltimore (+3.5) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments:Joe Flacco finally looked like a $120 million quarterback against Carolina. After 139 yards and two scores, Steve Smith is now third in receiving yards (429) and fantasy points (59). Torrey Smith finally scored but still played second fiddle to S. Smith, who has more targets in three of four games and 20 more overall. The former Panther clearly has more left in the tank than we realized, but faces a stiff test with IND allowing the fourth-fewest points to opposing WR. Owen Daniels is a sneaky play in deeper leagues as the Colts allow the fourth-most points to TE. Good luck figuring out the Ravens' backfield. Bernard Pierce, held out of Week 4 as precaution, should play but he's in a three-way battle with Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro for carries. Forsett still looks like the best player of the trio, but the situation is far too murky to confidently start any against Indy's top-11 run defense. ... No.1 QB Andrew Luck continues to be phenomenal, averaging 25.8 PPG. Luck's closest competitors are 22 points behind (103-81). However, something has to give against a Ravens defense allowing quarterbacks just 13.0 PPG (fifth-fewest). Reggie Wayne recorded his first 100-yard game and TD in a year (week 4 2013). T.Y. Hilton has five-plus receptions in seven straight games and 12 of his last 13. Only the Jaguars have allowed more yards to opposing WR than Baltimore (809). This is a brutal matchup for Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener as the Ravens dominate opposing TE, allowing a league-low 2.5 PPG. Ahmad Bradshaw has scored in three straight, but left in a walking boot Sunday. Noteworthy considering his injury history, but the foot issue shouldn't keep him from playing. Trent Richardson took a step back, rushing for 2.4 YPC, but totaled a season-high 99 YFS thanks to receiving yardage. As long as volume persists (21 touches/game since week 1) in Indy's high-scoring offense, Richardson is flex-worthy despite inefficiency and a poor matchup. Baltimore is seventh in both rush yards allowed (82.5) and fantasy points surrendered to opposing RB (11.0).
Predictions:Joe Flacco goes back to being just another "average Joe." Steve Smith struggles with six catches for 43 yards, finally being outgained by Torrey Smith (81). Owen Daniels finishes with double-digit fantasy points. Andrew Luck scores fewer than three TD for the first time during a 247-yard day. Coby Fleener and Hakeem Nicks catch touchdowns, Richardson rushes for the other. Indianapolis, 27-23.
Cleveland (+2) at Tennessee, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Titans enter on a three-game skid while Browns have two weeks to prepare. Many thought Johnny Manziel would have replaced Brian Hoyer by now, but we'll have to wait with CLE more than competitive in all three games (decided by 3 points or less). The bye was well timed for Jordan Cameron (shoulder), who faces a defense that allowed two TE scores last week. Ben Tate (knee) will start if healthy, which should be the case with him practicing this week. Terrance West hasn't looked bad in his absence; Isaiah Crowell has just been better. Crowell is the back to own if/when Tate goes down again. However, West is a better fit in third down/passing situations, more of a change-of-pace back. ... Jake Locker (wrist) should play, relegating Charlie Whitehurst back to the bench. Whitehurst is great at holding a clipboard, but that's about it. As awful as Locker was in weeks 2-3, Tennessee needs him, badly. Ken Whisenhunt called out Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter after last week's blowout loss, saying they let the team down. Nobody would blame you for cutting Justin Hunter, who's caught just 34.6 percent of his targets this year (9 of 26). Things don't get any better this week against Joe Haden, one of the best corners in the game. Cleveland has allowed just one TD to opposing WR, t-fewest in NFL. Bishop Sankey is in the latter stages of overtaking Shonn Greene as the primary ballcarrier. This may be your last chance to buy low on the rookie averaging 5.1 YPC. A potential breakout week for Sankey with his opponent allowing the second-most points to RB. Delanie Walker is second in both yards (317) and fantasy scoring (48), just 23 yards behind Jimmy Graham and four points shy of Martellus Bennett.
Predictions:Bishop Sankey doubles his season output by matching his season total (24-123-1). Both teams are led in receiving by their tight ends with more than 75 yards apiece. Ben Tate rumbles for 104 yards and a score against TEN 22nd-ranked run defense. Brian Hoyer gets CLE to .500, keeping Johnny Football on the bench a few more weeks. Cleveland, 19-16.
Chicago (+3) at Carolina, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Both enter 2-2 after blowout losses in week 4. Jay Cutler, fifth in fantasy points, faces a pass defense that Joe Flacco just shredded for 327 yards and three TD. Brandon Marshall (ankle) didn't suffer a setback Sunday, but clearly isn't quite right. Marshall has been targeted six times in each of the last two games but hauled in just three of those 12, held to less than 20 yards in each game. Furthermore, he's averaging just 4.5 YPT (144 yards on 32 targets) and is on pace for a paltry 576 yards. Both he and Alshon Jeffery salvaged poor games against GB with touchdowns, but need to be much better if Chicago's offense is to resemble the 2013 version (second in NFL). Matt Forte gets a dream matchup against Carolina's once-formidable run defense, now allowing 140.8 YPG (29th) and 5.7 YPC (32nd). Forte is averaging 113 total yards per game but hasn't hit pay dirt. Martellus Bennett is the No. 1 TE in fantasy football (52 points). However, Carolina gives up just 5.0 PPG to tight ends (he averages 13.0). ... Carolina fooled us for two weeks, since settling in as the .500-team we anticipated. Cam Newton is no longer a QB1, averaging just 13.7 PPG. Whether it's change in offensive philosophy or Ron Rivera protecting the face of the franchise, Newton isn't running (8 attempts, 33 yards). In past years, about a third of Cam Newton's fantasy production came courtesy of his legs. Fortunately, his opponent is ripe for the picking after getting thrashed by Aaron Rodgers (10.8 YPA, 302 yards, 4 TD). Kelvin Benjamin has been terrific with 49 fantasy points, seventh among wideouts. Chicago has allowed an NFL-high six TD to wide receivers and sixth-most points to the position overall. With DeAngelo Williams expected to miss a few games (high-ankle sprain) and Jonathan Stewart still nursing a knee injury, Panthers could be in real trouble at running back. Opposition's run defense is irrelevant with that offensive line and Darrin Reaves running the ball.
Predictions:Jay Cutler makes it five straight two-plus TD games to open the season. Brandon Marshall finally looks himself with 88 yards on seven catches. Matt Forte steals the show with 157 total yards and two scores (one receiving). Cam Newton has his first 20-point fantasy game as he tries to carry the team on his back, throwing TD passes to Benjamin and Greg Olsen and rushing for another in a losing effort. Chicago, 28-21.
Houston (+6) at Dallas, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Surprisingly, these teams share 3-1 records in addition to the state of Texas. Arian Foster (hamstring) acknowledged being less than 100 percent healthy against Buffalo, but did salvage his eight-carry, six-yard rushing day with 7-55 receiving. Fortunately, Foster didn't aggravate the injury and should play. Despite giving up just 108.5 YPG (14th), Dallas is allowing 5.0 YPC (28th); much improved, but far from elite against the run. DeAndre Hopkins, with a TD or 100-plus yards in every game, could be this year's Alshon Jeffery, and certainly has a better chance than Justin Hunter or Cordarrelle Patterson. Hopkins, 11th at the position, also just might be the best receiver on his own team. In classic Andre Johnson fashion, the vet has at least four receptions in each outing but has yet to find the end zone. Without Morris Claiborne (torn ACL), the responsibility of guarding those two will fall on Orlando Scandrick and Brandon Carr. For those who forgot about Garrett Graham, you may want to add/start him this week. Dallas defends the TE worse than any team in football, allowing 17.5 PPG to the position. Tight ends have amassed 395 yards and six TD against the Boys, scoring at least one each week. ... The Cowboys sport their first 3-1 record since 2008 and first three-game win streak since 2012. DAL has almost perfect run/pass balance (130/126) this season. DeMarco Murray, leading the league by a mile with 534 yards, is on pace for an NFL-record 2,136 yards (133.5 YPG). Doubtful that holds up, but he's your top overall pick if drafting today. Murray, with 100-plus yards and scoring in all four games, gets Houston's 24th-ranked run defense allowing 5.0 YPC. Tony Romo has significantly improved each game. If his line continues to dominate the LOS -- no small feat against J.J. Watt -- Romo can pick apart an average pass defense. Dez Bryant is off to a fairly quiet start, but still 10th among WR in fantasy points. Terrance Williams has scored 41 points (13th), just four fewer than Bryant. Not that you're thrilled about playing Jason Witten anyway (season highs 5-61 last week), but Houston allows the third-fewest points to opposing TE.
Predictions:DeMarco Murray is finally held under the century mark, finishing with 94 yards. Dez Bryant scores for a third straight game, and Tony Romo's good play continues. Andre Johnson catches eight for 99 and his first TD. Arian Foster has a solid day, hitting pay dirt while amassing 109 total yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick plays like ... himself. Cowboys head to Seattle 4-1. Dallas, 24-20.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Jacksonville, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Don't imagine PIT will be overlooking JAX coming off that last-second loss to TB. Steelers look like a completely different team each week, hard to tell which one shows up. Ben Roethlisberger, coming off his best game of the season, happens to be playing a defense allowing a league-high 23.3 PPG to opposing QB. JAX also allows the second-most points to opposing WR, which bodes well for the top-scoring wideout in fake football. Antonio Brown has 73 points, 12 clear of second-place Jordy Nelson. His five receiving TD are tied for the league lead, and he established an NFL-record last week with five-plus receptions for 20 straight games. Brown's 7-131-2 line could've pushed 200 yards and three TD if he didn't drop a bomb on that fleaflicker. Le'Veon Bell is third among RB, and has a cake matchup with the Jaguars, who allow the third-most points to opposing backs. Bell has exceeded 100 total yards in every game, no reason for that to change this week. If you're desperate, use Heath Miller, Jacksonville allows 13.3 PPG to the opposition's tight ends (third most). Pittsburgh's DST is a great streaming option with the Jags allowing 14.8 PPG to opposing defenses, most in the league. See a pattern here? ... Jacksonville enters 0-4 for a second consecutive season. This team may not be the worst in football, but it's in a weekly competition with the Raiders for that title. Blake Bortles is certainly better than Chad Henne (7.8 YPA to 6.3), but still needs time. PIT should double its season INT total (1) against a rookie QB who's thrown two in both games played. Cecil Shorts (hamstring), welcome to Dumpsville. Marqise Lee (hamstring) has been ruled out already, leaving it to Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson to carry the receiving corps. Toby Gerhart finally scored, but still couldn't crack double-digits. Gus Bradley insists Gerhart hasn't been demoted, but Denard Robinson out-touched him against SD. Gerhart can no longer be considered the bellcow, a shame because you can run on Pittsburgh (4.7 YPC).
Predictions:Antonio Brown remains consistent as gravity, hauling in eight passes for 98 yards and a score. Le'Veon Bell is the star of the day with 171 YFS (51 receiving) and two touchdowns. The Jags will win 2-3 games this year, just not this week. Pittsburgh, 28-17.
Tampa Bay (+10) at New Orleans, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Tampa finally got off the schneid last week to improve to 1-3. Shockingly, that's good enough to be tied with NO a game out of first in the suddenly terrible NFC South. Mike Glennon has been significantly better than Josh McCown -- don't count on the journeyman getting his job back. Glennon squares off against a defense allowing 273 YPG through the air (29th). Saints opponents have a 7:0 TD:INT ratio and throw for 7.8 YPA. With Mike Evans (groin) sidelined 2-4 weeks, expect big things from Vincent Jackson. Jackson has caught just five of 19 passes the last two games, but salvaged each with a TD. His volume could be astronomical in the coming weeks (12-15 per game), and he faces a NO defense allowing the fifth-most points to opposing WR. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ankle) was targeted seven times in his return to the lineup. Surprisingly, Doug Martin came back to a full workload, out-touching Bobby Rainey, 16 to five. Stay tuned to see if that distribution continues, Martin's performance was nothing to write home about (2.9 YPC). Only six teams allow more fantasy points to running backs than the Saints (20.8), leaving the door open for Martin to jumpstart his season against the 23rd-ranked run defense (123.5 YPG). ... Not exactly news, but the Saints are a below average team on the road. NO was shut out in the first half for the first time since week 8 of 2011. And, this just in: Rob Ryan is not a good defensive coordinator. In all his years as DC, Ryan has guided just two top-10 defenses. Hard to tell if Drew Brees' training camp oblique injury is a factor in his slow start (either via timing or the injury itself), but you didn't pay top dollar for the eighth-best QB in fantasy (68 points). Fortunately, the passing yards are there (300.8 per game), but seven TD in four games is odd. That should change against a TB pass defense last in both YPA (8.7) and completion percentage (75.8) allowed. Buccaneers allow more fantasy points to WR than any team in football, so start Marques Colston or Brandin Cooks. You got what you paid for with Jimmy Graham -- the No.2 TE has six-plus catches and 54-plus yards in every game. Own Saints running backs at your own peril, their roles are far too murky and touches inconsistent regardless of matchup.
Predictions:Drew Brees finally goes off, throwing for 387 yards and four TD. Jimmy Graham catches two, Kenny Stills and Marques Colston reel in the others. Vincent Jackson registers 134 yards, his exact total on the season to this point. Doug Martin records his second career 100-yard game against NO. Back in the Superdome, the Saints deliver. New Orleans, 38-23.
Atlanta (+4) at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Not unlike NO, Atlanta is a different team outside the Georgia Dome. Last time these teams met in New York, the G-Men won, 24-2, on wild card Weekend en route to the 2011 Super Bowl. Matt Ryan, second in fantasy points (81), faces an underrated Giants defense allowing just 14.5 points to opposing QB. If Ryan's depleted offensive line continues to struggle (or forced to play TE at tackle), Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka will make it a long day for Matty Ice. I'm most interested to watch Julio Jones vs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both height/speed freaks (6-foot-2-plus, sub-4.4), this is a rare case where Julio doesn't have a decided advantage in athleticism. Jones is second in receiving yards (447) and fourth in fantasy scoring. Roddy White (hamstring) delivered 13 points in his return to action, but caught just four of 14 targets. At this stage in his career, Prince Amukamara shouldn't have much trouble containing him. You can't drop Steven Jackson because he's a starting NFL running back, but you can't start him. Although his total yards have increased every week (52-53-54-62), Jackson has received between 12 and 15 touches in each game. His advanced age/lack of explosiveness requires more volume to be a consistent RB2/Flex. ... The Giants scored a first-quarter TD for the first time in nine games during that 45-14 beatdown of the Redskins. Eli Manning, last week's No. 1 scorer, likely won't match that total (32 points, 5 TD), but the matchup is outstanding against Atlanta's 31st-ranked pass defense allowing 8.6 YPA. Now sixth in fantasy points, Manning has completed 70 percent of his passes in each of his last two games and 70.8 percent over the last three. After a 3:4 TD:INT ratio in the first two weeks, he's gone 6:1 since. With back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time since weeks 1-2 of 2013, Victor Cruz is rolling. Odell Beckham Jr. (hamstring) hopes to make his long-awaited debut Sunday. Larry Donnell more than doubled his season scoring with 23 points vs. WSH (21 entering week 4). Fantasy's No.5 TE is catching 80.6 percent of his targets (25 of 31) and has five-plus receptions and six-plus targets in every game. Atlanta's defense is terrible all around, but especially bad against running backs. Much to Rashad Jennings' delight, the Falcons are last in points allowed to opposing RB.
Predictions:Matt Ryan rebounds with 302 yards and two TD. Steven Jackson gives the usual 60 total yards but scores. Julio Jones gets the better of DRC, finishing with 97 yards and a touchdown. Victor Cruz extends his 100-yard game streak to three, Eli Manning's stellar play continues. Rashad Jennings produces 106 total yards and a TD. New York, 27-24.
St. Louis (+7) at Philadelphia, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: As expected, Jeff Fisher named Austin Davis his starting quarterback Wednesday. Davis has played well with a 72.3 completion percentage and 8.0 YPA, and Shaun Hill is nothing special. Philly is allowing the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Coming off the bye, Tavon Austin (knee) should be healthy. Brian Quick has at least 14 PPR points in every game, emerging as the No. 1 WR and showing why he was selected 33rd overall in 2012. Kenny Britt's catches and yards have gone up each game. Good matchup for those three against a PHI defense allowing the fourth-most points to opposing WR. Zac Stacy's total yards (51-71-121) and fantasy points (5/7/12) have improved each week. That trend should continue against the Eagles' 28th-ranked run defense (133.8 YPG). ... After carrying the team to three straight victories, Chip Kelly's offense totaled no points and only 213 yards against SF. LeSean McCoy, a bust thus far, has 29 points -- outside the top-24, fewer than Antone Smith and Isaiah Crowell. The offensive line is decimated (down three starters), but he's been AWFUL: 29 carries for 39 yards, 1.3 YPC, 3.9 total fantasy points combined in weeks 3-4. McCoy is at 2.7 YPC overall, 1.7 or worse in each of the last two games. Fortunately, this matchup provides a "get right game" with STL 30th in both YPG (155.0) and YPC (5.1) allowed. Darren Sproles, a top-10 RB, is a sell-high candidate while McCoy is one of the best buy-lows. Nick Foles is just outside the top-12 QB in fantasy points, a good sign considering how poorly he's actually played (4.5 YPA, 48.8 percent vs. WSH). St. Louis, after finishing third in sacks a year ago (53), has just one in three games. If Foles has time to find his weapons, the Rams don't stand a chance. Jeremy Maclin's 46 targets are second only to Jordy Nelson. Maclin, fifth in receiving yards and sixth in scoring, is a lock WR1 despite catching just 43.4 percent of his targets (20 of 46).
Predictions: STL finally realizes it has its own Percy Harvin and utilizes Tavon Austin, who hauls in six passes for 88 yards and a score. Zac Stacy rushes for 93 yards and a TD. LeSean McCoy breaks out of his slump in a big way with 148 yards and two TD. Foles continues to look mediocre but scores 17 fantasy points. Eagles bounce back. Philadelphia, 34-17.
Arizona (+7) at Denver, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: It appears the extra week of rest wasn't enough to get Carson Palmer back into the lineup. Drew Stanton likely starts a third straight game with Palmer seeking a second opinion on his shoulder this week. Stanton hasn't been great, but won in each start, and DEN allows the fourth-most points to QB. Michael Floyd has emerged as the No. 1 WR as Larry Fitzgerald (35.7 YPG) has clearly lost a step, meaning Floyd likely draws Aqib Talib throughout. Don't be surprised if Fitzgerald isn't on the team in 2015, clearing a spot for the explosive John Brown to be an every-down player. Those three have a tasty matchup facing the NFL's second-worst pass defense (285 YPG). The bye came at an opportune time for Andre Ellington, who has looked good (4.5 YPC) but won't complain about the extra week to rest his foot. Ellington draws the 12th-ranked rush defense allowing 105.3 YPG and 3.9 YPC. ... Another player grateful for the week off: Demaryius Thomas. Thomas, averaging less than 50 yards and just seven points per game, was clearly hurting. Emmanuel Sanders stepped up beautifully, averaging 111.3 YPG (third in NFL). After getting his feet wet in week 3, Wes Welker should get his full complement of snaps. Facing Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie is no easy task, but this passing game is essentially matchup-proof. Peyton Manning, the reason for that, is 8:1 TD:INT and averaging 21 PPG (second only to Andrew Luck). Montee Ball, off to a slow start (3.4 YPC, 1 TD, 22 fantasy points), is unlikely to get going this week. His opponent allows just 9.7 PPG to opposing RB (fourth fewest). Julius Thomas has justified his draft status with a league-high five TD. His 44 points are fourth among TE even though he's played one fewer game (14.7 PPG is tops).
Predictions:Peyton Manning produces 20 points despite a tough matchup. Montee Ball's struggles continue with just 41 yards on the ground (2.9 YPC). Demaryius Thomas and Patrick Peterson go 1-on-1 all day, with DT edging him for 7-88-1. Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders and Andre Ellington all score for the first time this season. Talib and Bradley Roby get the better of Floyd and Fitzgerald, holding both to less than 75 yards. Stanton's first two INT of the year prove costly. Broncos knock Arizona from the ranks of the unbeaten. Denver, 27-21.
Kansas City (+6) at San Francisco, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: The Chiefs enter the "Alex Smith Bowl" on a roll after back-to-back 19-point victories. Not only has his completion percentage and YPA increased every week, Alex Smith has thrown for three TD in consecutive games. However, Smith's former team allows just 13.8 PPG to opposing QB (10th) and has five INT. Now, that's the Jamaal Charles we all know and love. Charles (ankle) looked healthy in his return with 108 total yards and three TD, but things get much tougher this week against San Fran's second-ranked run defense (69.8 YPG) that just shut down LeSean McCoy (17 yards on 10 carries). 49ers allow the second-fewest points to opposing RB. Dwayne Bowe came back to life against Darrelle Revis on MNF-finishing with five catches for 81 yards in the first half, a 27-game high (week 4 2012). Bowe is a sneaky good play with 49ers allowing the eighth-most points to WR. Travis Kelce, on the other hand, could have a tough go of it. Kelce's fantasy points have increased each week but SF allows the second-fewest PPG to opposing TE. ... The 2-2 Niners have played the toughest schedule in football with three of four opponents already at three wins (DAL, CHI, AZ, PHI). It took a month, but they finally scored in the fourth quarter. Colin Kaepernick is ninth among QB (65 pts) and his fantasy points have gone up in three straight. Unfortunately, his two best weapons are banged up with Vernon Davis (back) questionable to play and Michael Crabtree nursing a foot injury. Davis has done absolutely nothing (5/47/0) since week 1, no longer an elite TE1. Kaepernick's opponent limited Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady to 35-of-66 for 364 yards (5.5 YPA), two TD, two INT combined the last two weeks. Frank Gore had a vintage game last week with 174 total yards. He and Carlos Hyde look to beat up on the Chiefs run D, which allows 5.0 YPC (27th).
Predictions:Alex Smith struggles in his return to the Bay Area, throwing two ugly picks. Jamaal Charles finds minimal room to run but totals 81 yards (47 receiving). SF's O-line allows Gore and Hyde to control the game with 141 combined rush yards. With 18 points, Colin Kaepernick opens the year with 15-plus in five straight. Chiefs hang tough, but 49ers prevail in a defensive struggle. San Francisco, 17-16.
New York Jets (+6.5) at San Diego, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: This game features two teams trending in opposite directions with SD winning three straight and NY dropping three in a row. Geno Smith, closer and closer to riding pine, has thrown at least one interception every game. San Diego has an average pass defense, leaving Smith no excuses for terrible play or cursing out fans this time. On a positive note, Eric Decker has avoided setbacks playing through a hamstring injury in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately, San Diego allows just 14.0 PPG to opposing WR (third fewest). In a battle of strengths, New York's No. 2 rushing offense (151.3 YPG) takes on San Diego's ninth-ranked run defense (97.3 YPG). Chris Ivory, just outside the top-10 RB, received 17 carries to Chris Johnson's six during his 100-total yard day in a brutal matchup (DET). Ivory averages a ridiculous 5.7 YPC, compared to just 3.5 for CJ2K. All signs point to Ivory becoming the feature back and Johnson the change of pace ... at least until he gets hurt. ... Philip Rivers, tied for second in QB scoring, is a top-five MVP candidate for the 3-1 Chargers. Coming off a 377-yard, three-TD performance, Rivers could roast the Jets. Opposing QB score 20.5 PPG against NY (next to last) and have a 9:0 TD:INT ratio. That carries over to receivers, as they allow the third-most points to the position. Shockingly, Eddie Royal is the eighth-ranked fantasy WR. Ladarius Green (hamstring) was active against JAX, but didn't see the field. If healthy, he and Antonio Gates form arguably the best TE duo in football. Forget about Donald Brown this week, the chances of him busting out of his slump are slim and none. Brown has 81 yards on 41 carries (1.98 YPC) the last two weeks, and Gang Green dominates opposing backs. NY is No. 1 against the run (63.3 YPG) and allows the fewest fantasy points to RB (6.0 PPG).
Predictions:Geno Smith continues to be reckless with the ball with three more TO. Ivory and Johnson are effective, combining for 126 yards and keeping the Jets in the game. Eric Decker tallies just 58 yards on his seven receptions. Predictably, Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson make Donald Brown miserable. Rivers' stellar play continues despite no running game, throwing for 326 yards and two TD. Keenan Allen tops the century mark for a second straight. San Diego, 23-16.
Cincinnati (-1) at New England, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: These teams also met in Week 5 a year ago, with the Bengals prevailing at home, 13-6. Cincinnati is just one of two undefeated teams and has two weeks to prepare. Andy Dalton has played more of a game manager role than in years past, throwing just two TD in three games. Don't expect that to change this week against NE, which gives up just 10.8 PPG to opposing QB (third fewest). The bye was perfectly timed for A.J. Green (toe), who has exceeded 100 yards in both games he's actually played. Marvin Jones (foot) should be available, but temper expectations as Marvin Lewis likely will ease him back. Also, New England allows the fewest fantasy points to WR. Giovani Bernard is eighth among running backs in fantasy points, averaging 111.0 total yards and a touchdown per game. With CIN leaning heavily on him in a ball-control offense, Bernard should perform well against the Pats' 23rd-ranked run defense (129.8 YPG). ... New England has just six days to prep coming off one of the worst defeats in the Bill Belichick era. On Aug. 28 Tom Brady said he would quit "when I suck," so expect his retirement speech any day now. Even when Brady has time in the pocket (a rarity), he just can't throw the ball deep anymore -- just 1-of-7 for 18 yards and two INT on passes 10-plus yards during Monday's 159-yard stinker. That's now six straight games with less than 250 yards and 13 fantasy points with exactly one TD pass in all. Oh, and Cincy allows the second-fewest points to opposing QB (10.7 PPG). Rob Gronkowski looks like a guy coming off ACL surgery with no more than four receptions or 44 yards in any game. Gronk is barely a top-10 TE, and only because he's scored in three of four. Julian Edelman is a nice player, but more of a slot guy and nowhere near a No. 1 receiver. Danny Amendola is dangerously close to becoming a healthy scratch, failing to record a catch in three straight games. Having a big target like Brandon LaFell is critical for this offense; he needs to build off his 6-119-1 game. Starting the Pats DST is also a bad idea against CIN, allowing a league-best –1.0 PPG to opposing defenses. It's imperative for Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen to provide some semblance of a running game. Fortunately, you can run on the Bengals (5.1 YPC).
Predictions:Giovani Bernard totals 89 yards rushing and 64 receiving, scoring in his third straight game. A.J. Green is shadowed by Darrelle Revis but manages 7-77-1. Brady continues to be "Tom the Terrible" with just 189 yards and one score. Patriots lose two straight for the first time since weeks 2-3 in 2012. Cincinnati, 20-17.
Seattle (-7) at Washington, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Last time these two met was in the 2012 playoffs, with the Seahawks climbing out of an early 14-0 hole to emerge from DC victorious. Both clubs have additional time to prepare with Seattle coming off a bye and Washington playing Thursday last week. Russell Wilson averages 18.3 PPG, good for seventh among quarterbacks. Wilson has been incredibly consistent, scoring 17-plus points and throwing two TD in every game. He's a strong start this week with WSH freshly embarrassed by Eli Manning and allowing the third-most points to QB (20.3/game). Marshawn Lynch is second among running backs in points (59, almost 20 PPG) despite playing one fewer game. Washington allows the fifth-fewest points to opposing RB, but Beast Mode is essentially matchup-proof at this stage. Percy Harvin can be frustrating, but you may want to ride the wave this week with Washington one of the 10 worst teams at defending WR. Start your Seahawks, the Skins have allowed 82 points (41/game) over their last two. ... Kirk Cousins went from penthouse to outhouse in a hurry with his five-turnover clunker against the Giants. Things don't get any easier against one of the best pass defenses in football. Slight, speedy wideouts like DeSean Jackson have beaten Richard Sherman in the past, a la T.Y. Hilton in 2013 (5-140-2). The bigger, more physical Sherman could be pushed by Djack's quickness off the jam and in/out of breaks. Jay Gruden should line up Jackson to his side and hit him with a double move early. Similarly to Jordy Nelson in Week 1, Pierre Garcon will own Byron Maxwell on short/intermediate routes when matched up together. If either Jordan Reed (hamstring) or Niles Paul (concussion) play, they could fare well against a Seahawks defense allowing the second-most points to opposing TE (15.0 PPG, 5 TD). Alfred Morris, fifth in rushing yards and sixth in RB fantasy points, could be in for a long night as Seattle's fifth-ranked run defense (72.8 YPG) allows a league-high 2.8 YPC.
Predictions:Russell Wilson rushes for 41 yards and a score with 221 and a TD passing. Marshawn Lynch continues to be an elite RB1 with 95 total yards and two touchdowns. Kirk Cousins' turnover parade carries over to week 5. DeSean Jackson burns Sherman on a sluggo for six. Alfred Morris struggles to a 49-yard finish. Redskins are blown out at home in consecutive weeks. Seattle, 33-14.
