This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Stat of Week:Justin Houston (17.0), Elvis Dumervil (17.0) and J.J. Watt (16.5) each have more sacks than the Falcons.
Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville, Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: After falling 16-11 to the Jets in Toilet Bowl I, Titans enter Toilet Bowl II on an eight-game skid. This matchup's only significance is its affect on the No. 1 draft pick. Titans are down to Charlie Whitehurst with Jake Locker and Zach Mettenburger heading to IR in consecutive weeks. The professional clipboard-holder completed 55.2 percent for 6.4 YPA in 18 games during his nine-year career. Although he's missed each of the last two, TEN hopes to have Kendall Wright available. Nate Washington led the team in receiving (6-102-0) against NYJ, but can't imagine anyone being desperate enough to start the 10th-year vet. Delanie Walker, eighth among TE, hasn't scored since Week 8 but has 93 yards or more in two of his last four and only three teams allow more TE targets than Jacksonville (110). Tennessee thinks so little of Bishop Sankey it's going back to Shonn Greene, three straight sub-4.0 YPC seasons (career-low 3.6 in 2014). Sankey failed to reach that mark in nine of 10 while Greene hasn't topped 3.3 since Week 2. Only five teams allow more YPG (129.6) and TD (14) on the ground but ... don't do it. ... Jaguars have matched their opponent's futility (both 2-12) but actually won in the last two months. Thanks to Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles no longer leads the league in INT despite throwing at least one in 11 of 12 games. Bortles has taken 27 sacks over his last five, at least four in each, failing to exceed 60 percent in any with just two TD during the stretch. Maybe I'm wrong and the kid actually has a future in this league, but he hasn't topped 5.7 YPA in four straight. Marqise Lee netted a season-low 1.6 YPT while Cecil Shorts (44 yards combined in last three) and Allen Hurns (25.0 YPG over previous four) both reached 70 yards for the first time in more than a month. As awful as Toby Gerhart is, he's averaging 4.1 YPC over his last four while only two teams allow more rush TD than Tennessee (15), last against the run (139.6 YPG).
Predictions:Delanie Walker, this game's only fantasy-relevant player, catches eight for 91 yards and Tennessee's only touchdown. Charlie Whitehurst (two TO) and Shonn Greene (2.9 YPC) remain terrible. Toby Gerhart musters 71 yards and a TD out of his 18 carries. Blake Bortles gives it up only once, finding Marqise Lee (68 yards) for his lone score during a 202-yard day. Jags are better on both sides of the ball and at home. Jacksonville, 17-13.
Philadelphia (-7.5) at Washington, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Eagles lost for the third time in five weeks (4-4 over last eight), each of the last two at home. Shockingly, they were dominated in T.O.P. during both contests, controlling the clock for no more than 18:05 in either. Mark Sanchez has 13 points or less in five of seven, failing to score double digits in two straight. Sanchez threw multiple interceptions for the fourth time, giving him 11 touchdowns to 11 turnovers. Fortunately, WSH allows opposing quarterbacks more points (20.1 FPPG) and a better TD:INT ratio (31:5) than any team in football. No. 5 WR Jeremy Maclin has at least 98 yards or a touchdown in each of his last three while Washington allows the sixth-most points to WR (24.2 FPPG). I was wrong last week about Jordan Matthews' yardage bottoming out; he blanked Sunday night to give him decreasing totals of 138-107-77-51-23-0 over his last six. If not for three vultures (twice by Chris Polk, once by Darren Sproles), RB13 LeSean McCoy would've scored 19-plus points for the third time in four games. Polk now has as many touchdowns (4) as McCoy and Washington allows 11.7 FPPG to opposing RB, third-fewest. ... Redskins gave up at least five sacks in each of their last six (all losses) while Philly is second in the league with 47. Robert Griffin III looked better than at any point this year, throwing more TD than INT for the first time and running for a season-high 46 yards. Griffin would've had his first rushing score since 2012 if not for an odd NFL rule and faces an Eagles defense allowing the third-most points to QB (18.9 FPPG). DeSean Jackson, 21st among WR, scored more than three points once since Week 9; meaning he's due and Philadelphia allows 25.6 FPPG to WR, second-most. Pierre Garcon was held to 36 yards or fewer for the fifth time in six games. Jordan Reed, 25 yards or fewer in four of five, still hasn't reached the painted area while Philly's allowed just one TE touchdown all year (best in NFL). After scoring at least 12 in each of his previous four, No. 10 RB Alfred Morris scored 12 points the past three games combined. No offense to Colt McCoy (neck, IR) but Morris, averaging 46.8 more rushing YPG and scoring 81 of his 140 points in Griffin's five starts, has to be thrilled with the QB change despite the subpar matchup (PHI sixth in YPC, 3.8).
Predictions:Robert Griffin turns back the clock to 2012, totaling 301 yards and three TD (8-64-1 rushing). DeSean Jackson burns Bradley Fletcher for a 69-yard bomb en route to 6-136-1. Alfred Morris totes 17 times for 72 yards. Jeremy Maclin feasts on the Skins secondary, scoring twice during a 141-yard day. LeSean McCoy, held to 19-22-0 the first meeting, grinds out 77 yards and a score on 23 carries. Playing turnover-free, Mark Sanchez passes for 311 yards and three scores. Philadelphia, 31-27.
San Diego (+2.5) at San Francisco, Saturday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Chargers lost their second straight, neither a one-score game. San Diego, 8-4 just two weeks ago, is more likely to finish 8-8 than make the playoffs. QB10 Philip Rivers threw one TD or fewer for the fifth time in six games, scoring 39 points in those five. 49ers' pass defense ranks third in YPG (206.0) and fourth in passer rating (80.1) while Rivers has a 7:8 TD:INT ratio the past six weeks. With Keenan Allen shelved (broken collarbone), the onus falls on Malcom Floyd to fill the void. At 6-foot-5, 225, with 4.44-speed, no one doubts Floyd's natural talent (9.3 YPT or better each of last seven years). However, the 33-year old hasn't exceeded 56 receptions, 856 yards, or six TD in any of his 10 seasons and Niners allow 17.9 FPPG to opposing WR, fifth-fewest. Eddie Royal has big-game potential but recorded 5.9 PPR points or less seven times already. No. 4 TE Antonio Gates scored a TD and double-digits for the first time since Week 8 (previous five games: 17 points). Due to ineptitude of Branden Oliver and Donald Brown, SD desperately needs Ryan Mathews (ankle). If Mathews plays, they'd be wise to give their best offensive weapon the ball more often (15 touches just once all year). Not the impenetrable run D of 2011-13, San Fran is 11th in YPC (4.0) and FPPG allowed to RB (14.2). ... 49ers, playing as double-digit underdogs for the first time under Jim Harbaugh, were eliminated from the playoffs after losing a third straight (another first in Harbaugh era). Colin Kaepernick, 18th in QB scoring, has a 1:4 TD:INT ratio over his last three, averaging 145.3 YPG and 6.0 FPPG while taking 15 sacks over that span. Kaepernick, now 1-5 against hated rival SEA, hasn't scored more than 13 points or one TD since Week 6. Despite ranking No. 8 versus the pass (228 YPG), Chargers can't rush the passer (20 sacks, 29th in NFL) and opposing QB have a 23:7 TD:INT ratio. Michael Crabtree caught 15-of-20 targets the past three weeks but gained a measly 85 yards on said opportunities (5.7 YPC, 4.3 YPT). Not faring much better, Anquan Boldin averages 5.3 YPT during that stretch (9-95-0 on 18 targets). Carlos Hyde (back, ankle) and Frank Gore (concussion) were both knocked out of the SEA game and highly questionable for Saturday. Can't imagine Gore playing given the quick turnaround, leaving Hyde in RB2 conversation if active against SD, 13th in YPG (108.6) and YPC (4.1).
Predictions:Colin Kaepernick busts out of his slump, accounting for 289 yards and three touchdowns (7-56-1 rushing). He hits Michael Crabtree (76 yards) in the endzone for his first fourth-quarter TD pass all year. Carlos Hyde plays, rushing 15 times for 72 yards. Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd account for 159 of Philip Rivers' 262 yards and both scores. Ryan Mathews runs for 69 hard-earned yards and a touch. Niners show some pride, crushing Chargers' playoff hopes. San Francisco, 24-21.
Minnesota (+6.5) at Miami, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Vikings would be 7-7, on a three-game winning streak if not for blowing a 14-0 lead in Detroit (Blair Walsh's blocked chip-shot FG proved costly). Teddy Bridgewater passed for 300-plus yards for the second consecutive game, his seventh straight with a TD pass. However, he committed multiple turnovers for the first time since Week 7 and Miami ranks fourth in YPG (209.2) and YPA (6.4). Charles Johnson averages 71.0 yards, 17.8 YPR, and 9.6 YPT over his last five. Greg Jennings found the endzone in three of his last four games but scored no more than 11 points in any this year. Kyle Rudolph, yet to exceed seven points, registered season highs in catches (7) and yards (69). Matt Asiata averages 2.8 YPC since Week 6 but gained 86 YFS against DET, second-highest total of 2014, and Miami's 22nd-ranked run defense (122.4 YPG) allows 4.4 YPC (26th in NFL). ... Dolphins were trounced 41-13 in New England, their fourth loss in six weeks. At 7-7 they are, for all intents and purposes, eliminated from playoff contention. Ryan Tannehill, tied for 10th in QB scoring, is coming off his first 300-yard game but committed multiple turnovers for the first time since Week 6 (second all year). Tannehill, only 36 points and two TD over his last three, faces the league's No. 6 pass defense (216.0 YPG). Mike Wallace eclipsed the century mark for the first time since Week 15 of 2013 (also against NE) and scored a season-high 16 points (no more than 12 in any other), vaulting him to 19th in WR scoring. Although it was badly underthrown, he and Tannehill finally connected on a deep ball. Jarvis Landry, 75.5 percent catch rate, has 41 receptions the past six weeks, snagging at least five in each with double-digit targets in four. Charles Clay caught at least five in four of his last five. RB14 Lamar Miller turned his second-highest carry total (16) into his second-lowest YPC clip (2.9), failing to score in double figures for the fifth time in six weeks. Miller has only one 100-yard game to his credit but Minnesota, 23rd in both YPG (123.9) and YPC (4.3), gave up 100-plus rushing yards in all but three this season.
Predictions: Finally breaking out, Lamar Miller rushes for 130 yards and a score. Ryan Tannehill scores a ho-hum 15 points; Jarvis Landry hauls in the usual six for 59 yards. Mike Wallace hits paydirt during a 63-yard day. Matt Asiata carries 15 times for 47 yards and a TD. Teddy Bridgewater isn't sharp, committing two more turnovers. Dolphins rebound and cover. Miami, 23-16.
Green Bay (-10.5) at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Packers' five-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in Buffalo, falling to 3-4 with a minus-34 point differential on the road. Entering Week 15 with only 13 all year, they dropped seven passes (by seven different receivers), most by any team since 2008 (TB). Aaron Rodgers completed a career-low 40.4 percent with a career-high 25 incompletions. Fantasy's No. 2 QB scored a measly five points, fewest in any game he's finished, but Tampa gives up ninth-most passing yards (250.4) and FPPG (16.6) to opposing QB. Had Jordy Nelson hung onto that would-be 94-yard TD and put GB up 17-16, this whole story and NFC playoff picture would be entirely different. Nelson, third in WR scoring, has 55 yards or fewer in two of his last three and WR9 Randall Cobb, under 60 yards in two of four, hasn't reached the painted area in five straight. Fortunately, TB allows fourth-most points to WR (24.4 FPPG). Eddie Lacy, sixth among RB, topped 100 total yards in each of the past seven with eight TD during that span. Tampa Bay is 10th in NFL at 3.9 YPC allowed but Lacy, averaging 4.6 overall, hit at least 4.7 in five straight. ... Although three were one-possession games and they covered against Carolina, Buccaneers lost their fourth in a row. On top of that, they're playing the leagues top offense without their best player, Gerald McCoy (IR). Josh McCown hasn't completed more than 52.1 percent or had a passer rating above 67.3 in any of his past four. Although he's 10th in WR scoring and tied Mike Williams' rookie record for TD catches (11, third-most since merger), Mike Evans was held under 50 yards for a fourth consecutive week. He's caught only 13-of-39 targets (33.3 percent catch rate) for a meager 3.9 YPT over that stretch but no team has allowed more WR touchdowns than GB (21). Vincent Jackson was targeted 27 times the past two weeks, netting 16 receptions for 229 yards. Boosted by a 63-yard run, Doug Martin rushed for 96, most since Week 2 of 2013 and 38 more than any game this season. Packers rank 25th in YPC (4.4) and 26th in YPG (128.0).
Predictions: An angry Aaron Rodgers erupts for 324 yards and four TD. Randall Cobb (82 yards) breaks his scoreless streak and Jordy Nelson avenges his poor Week 15 performance with 139 yards and two scores. Eddie Lacy churns out 79 yards and a touch. Mike Evans catches five for 68. Vincent Jackson goes for 5-84-1. Doug Martin finishes with 66 yards and a touchdown. Pack bounce back. Green Bay, 37-14.
Detroit (-7) at Chicago, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Lions, currently occupying the NFC's No. 2 seed following their third consecutive victory, beat Chicago each of their last three meetings. Matthew Stafford, 15th in QB scoring, failed to exceed 10 points for the third time in five games but has a 6:1 TD:INT ratio over his last three. Along with allowing the second-most FPPG (19.6), Bears surrender more yards (4,006) and TD (33) to quarterbacks than any team in football. Calvin Johnson, 18th among WR, inexplicably saw just 15 targets the past two weeks-including a season-low (for a non-decoy game) six against Minnesota -- despite averaging 14.1 YPT. Although he caught seven passes and scored his first TD since Week 8, WR14 Golden Tate was held to a season-low 38 yards. Neither Tate or Megatron have reached 60 yards in three of five but CHI allows fourth-most FPPG to WR since Week 12. No. 11 RB Joique Bell has been a workhorse with at least 19 carries and 100 total yards in three straight, rendering Reggie Bush irrelevant since returning. Only three RB have more carries inside the opposition's 10-yard line than Bell and Chicago allowed five rushing TD the past three weeks, second only to Dallas (7). ... Not only did the Bears lose their third in a row by at least 13 points, they sunk many a fantasy owner along the way with the junkiest of all garbage-time touchdowns. Jay Cutler, ninth in QB scoring and digger of many graves, leads the league in TO (24) and INT (18). All four of his touchdowns the last two weeks have come in meaningless fourth quarters; if only he could play that well when it matters. Cutler, benched for Jimmy Clausen (1-9 career record, 3:9 TD:INT ratio, 51.9 percent, 5.2 YPA) committed multiple turnovers eight times his last 11 games. Detroit, allowing fifth-fewest FPPG (12.9) to QB, is second in the NFL with 19 interceptions. WR11 Alshon Jeffery has 74 points the last five weeks, scoring 13-plus in four and a TD in each. Garbage time counts but he needs to get going earlier, as he did on Thanksgiving versus DET with two first-quarter scores. Although he found the endzone, Marquess Wilson was targeted only five times Monday. No. 5 TE Martellus Bennett had at least eight catches and 90 yards in two of his last three against the Lions. Matt Forte, fourth in RB scoring, found little success his first go-round with Detroit's top-ranked run defense (in both YPC, 3.1, and YPG, 63.8). Forte scored in single digits two of his last three while Lions allow 12.4 FPPG to opposing RB, fifth-fewest.
Predictions:Matthew Stafford dices Chicago's secondary for 335 yards and three TD. Calvin Johnson (8-146-2 first meeting) burns them again for 131 yards and two more scores. Joique Bell adds 116 YFS and a TD. Using primarily checkdowns and quick screens, Jimmy Clausen passes for 245 yards and one TD. Alshon Jeffery struggles (58 yards) while Matt Forte gains 93 total yards and a touch. Better effort, same result for Chicago. Detroit 28-14.
Atlanta (+6.5) at New Orleans, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Falcons lost two in a row and three of four but control their own destiny and beat NO 37-34 Week 1. Matt Ryan, eighth in QB scoring, has at least 20 points and 310 yards each of the past three weeks. Ryan threw multiple TD in four straight and New Orleans allows fourth-most points to enemy QB (18.5 FPPG). WR7 Julio Jones (hip), 11-plus targets in five straight and nine of 13 this season, hopes to play after missing last week. Jones reached double figures in four of five, posting 21-448-2 on 29 targets his two outings. No. 23 WR Roddy White scored 9.6 points or better in five straight, finding the endzone in four. Harry Douglas caught nine-plus passes for no less than 116 yards his last two starts, both coming the last three weeks. Saints allow 23.7 FPPG to opposing WR, eighth most. Steven Jackson, 18th among RB, reached double figures in half his games and NO surrenders fourth-most FPPG (20.8) to RB; unfortunately, he scored five points or fewer the other seven. ... Saints won their third straight on the road with Monday's demolition of Chicago. Unfortunately, they've dropped three in a row at home, where this game is. No. 4 QB Drew Brees scored at least three TD and 27 points in three of four while Atlanta ranks 32nd in both YPG (292.5) and YPA (8.3). Jimmy Graham is third in TE scoring coming off his highest yardage total (87) since Week 2 but scoreless in three straight and dropped two balls he typically catches. Marques Colston averages 9.4 YPT, second-best of his career, and scored 40 points the last four weeks (at least 7 in each; TD in three of four). Kenny Stills has at least five receptions and 67 yards in three of four since Brandin Cooks went down but gave way to Nick Toon in two-wide sets, probably because he's a terrible blocker. Toon hasn't seen more than five targets in any game but actually gives NFL-caliber effort in blocking situations. Falcons allow 24.4 FPPG to opposing WR, fourth-most. RB12 Mark Ingram salvaged his day with a garbage-time TD, his first since Week 9, giving him 11-plus points in two of three. Ingram hit paydirt twice their first meeting and Atlanta allows 21 total TD (18 rushing) and 24.4 FPPG to opposing RB (dead last in each category).
Predictions:Matt Ryan and Drew Brees both pass for 320-plus yards and three TD. Jimmy Graham finishes with 7-76-1, Stills 6-99-1. Mark Ingram totes 22 times for 111 yards and a touch. Julio Jones hauls in seven for 116 yards and a score. Roddy White contributes 77 yards and finds the painted area. Steven Jackson rushes for 68 yards and a touchdown. Plenty of fireworks, zero defense-Saints win this one. New Orleans, 34-31.
New England (-10) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Patriots pounded Miami for their ninth win in 10 games and sixth straight AFC title, 11th in 12 seasons. No. 7 QB Tom Brady has 10 consecutive multi-TD games but only two in each of the last five, failing to reach the 20-point threshold during that stretch. Brady threw at least one pick in five of six but NYJ allow opposing quarterbacks a 29:5 TD:INT ratio and 18.1 FPPG, fifth-most. Top Fantasy TE Rob Gronkowski is 42 points clear of No. 2 after scoring 13-plus in five of seven. Gronk posted 27-373-4 in four healthy meetings with the Jets, who allow 9.4 FPPG to opposing TE, t-second most. Over the last two weeks, WR16 Julian Edelman caught 15 passes for 229 yards and two TD, scoring 14 or more in both. Edelman was targeted at least 10 times each of the last four whereas Brandon LaFell, 22nd in WR scoring, hasn't hit double-digit targets in three straight (48.3 YPG over span). LeGarrette Blount's YPC figure decreased every week since re-joining NE (6.5-5.8-3.3-2.1). Jonas Gray had merely three carries since his monstrous Week 11 before rushing a team-high 11 times against MIA. Shane Vereen scored his first TD since Week 7 against the Jets but has 32 yards or fewer in three straight. Bottom line: don't trust any of the three against New York, third in YPC (3.5) and fourth in YPG (87.5). ... Even when the Jets win, they lose. NY won for the second time in five games, hurting their chances of getting Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. Geno Smith has just two TD in four games since re-insertion into the lineup, but only turned it over twice during this stretch. WR35 Eric Decker notched his first 100-yard game, catching 13 passes for 189 yards the past two. Unfortunately, he's heading into Revis Island and Patriots allow seventh-fewest points (18.4 FPPG) and just 10 TD (fifth) to opposing WR. Percy Harvin played through his ankle injury but, clearly hobbled, went catchless on three targets (10 rushing yards). So much for the "revenge game" for Chris Johnson, who carried just 10 times on 21 snaps. Boosted by the 37-yard run setting up the winning score, Johnson averaged 5.5 YPC for the fourth time in six weeks, including three of the last four. Chris Ivory posted season highs in carries (21) and yards (107) their first meeting but held under 4.0 YPC in five of seven since then and New England's 10th-ranked run defense (103.5 YPG) allowed just five rush TD, second in NFL.
Predictions:Tom Brady shreds NYJ for 340 yards and three TD. Rob Gronkowski catches six for 94 yards and two of those. Brandon LaFell hauls in the third during an 83-yard day. Jets stifle the Pats' running game and rush for 145 yards themselves, Chris Johnson leading the way with 81 yards and a touch. Darrelle Revis picks off Geno Smith and limits Eric Decker to 5-42-0. Nothing keeping the Patriots from that No. 1 seed, especially not the Jets. New England, 27-16.
Kansas City (+3) at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Chiefs got off the schnide with a 31-13 beatdown of Oakland, their first victory since Week 11 (SEA). Alex Smith, 17th in QB scoring, is a sneaky play after scoring 15-plus points in five of seven, including 20 against OAK. Smith posted season highs in yards each of the last two weeks (293-297) and PIT allows opposing quarterbacks 8.0 YPA (29th in NFL), 17.7 FPPG (sixth-most), and a 28:9 TD:INT ratio. TE9 Travis Kelce, playing 50-plus snaps in consecutive weeks for the first time, would have back-to-back 11-point games if not for lost fumbles in each (12-169-1 on 15 targets). Catching 77.8 percent of targets, Kelce averages a robust 10.4 YPT. Dwayne Bowe recorded a season-long 37-yard reception but has no more than three catches in five straight and, like all Chiefs WR, yet to score a TD. Knile Davis swiped two touchdowns from Jamaal Charles, who failed to score at least one TD and 11 points for the first time since Week 5. Charles, seventh among RB, was held under 60 total yards in two of his last three while Pittsburgh ranks 11th against the run (103.6 YPG) but allows 4.4 YPC (27th). ... Steelers, looking like they'll break a two-year postseason drought, won their second in a row and would be AFC North champs if they win out (play CIN in finale). Oddly enough, QB7 Ben Roethlisberger didn't have a TD against ATL despite completing 71.4 percent for 10.3 YPA. Big Ben passed for 350 yards each of his last three games (381.7 YPG, 22.3 FPPG) but KC ranks second in YPA (6.2), completion percentage (57.6), and passing yards (199.2 YPG) allowed. Roethlisberger was sacked just once the past three weeks but Chiefs have 38 (sixth in NFL), including league-leading 17 by Justin Houston. No. 1 WR Antonio Brown, one yard short of his 2013 total, has at least 90 yards and 10 targets in eight of his last nine and 12 of 14 games this season. WR39 Martavis Bryant remains a crapshoot due to limited snaps (26.9/game) and targets (5.5 per), scoring double digits five times but no more than three points the other three games. Heath Miller is 12th in TE scoring and has at least 68 yards or a TD in four straight. No. 2 RB Le'Veon Bell, only 41 total yards and three fantasy points shy of DeMarco Murray for tops in each category, scored a ridiculous 121 points (seven TD) his last four games, at least 23 in each. Kansas City allows 4.9 YPC (30th) and 132.6 YPG (28th) but, amazingly, a league-low two rushing touchdowns all year.
Predictions:Jamaal Charles gains 113 YFS and two TD. Alex Smith scores 15 points, Travis Kelce 10. Antonio Brown catches nine balls (105 yards), passing Wes Welker and Herman Moore (123 apiece) for second most single-season receptions all-time. Le'Veon Bell amasses 144 yards and a touch, joining Latavius Murray as the only backs to score against KC on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger throws two TD but only 242 yards. Back the more complete team at home. Pittsburgh, 24-20.
Cleveland (+3.5) at Carolina, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Browns dropped four of five to fall to 7-7, last in AFC North. They ran just 38 offensive plays, fewest by any team this year, and gained a meager 107 total yards in Cincinnati. Johnny Manziel became just the fourth first-round pick, 16th quarterback in general, shut out in their first career start (Bob Griese, Troy Aikman, Tommy Maddox). Manziel was 0-for-4 with two INT on passes 15-plus yards downfield with a third pick nullified by penalty. Johnny Football posted a total QBR of 1.0, lowest since they began tracking the stat, and Carolina ranks 11th in YPA (7.1) and 12th in YPG (234). Josh Gordon's targets decreased each week (16-13-7-4), leading to just five catches for 58 yards combined the last two games (at least 7-75 in first two). However, he's due and there isn't a corner that can cover him on CAR, who allows eighth-most yards (176.8) and 11th-most FPPG (22.3) to WR. Jordan Cameron has been minimally involved since returning, posting 5-45-0 on only six targets despite playing nearly every snap. Isaiah Crowell, 24th in RB scoring, failed to reach even 30 yards twice the last three games (2.4 YPC or worse in each) but only five teams allow more rushing TD than Carolina, 29th in YPC (4.6). ... Panthers won their second straight following that seven-game winless streak, giving them a real shot at the playoffs even at 5-8-1. QB16 Cam Newton (back) got in limited practice Wednesday and could return this week. Derek Anderson proved an adequate fill-in, completing 66.2 percent with a 3:0 TD:INT ratio in two starts, but Newton is coming off a season-high 35 points and brings so much more to the table. No. 2 TE Greg Olsen has a 20-182-1 line (24 points) the past two weeks, scoring at least 11 and catching 10 passes in each. Kelvin Benjamin, 15th in WR scoring, was targeted 12-plus times in three of his last four, eclipsing the century mark in two. Although he's scored five TD in five games (double-digits in three), I'm betting on Joe Haden dominating the rookie at LOS and winning that one-on-one battle. Jonathan Stewart ran for 313 yards the past three weeks, at least 73 in each, while Cleveland's 31st-ranked run defense (137.6 YPG) allows 4.5 YPC (28th).
Predictions:Johnny Manziel hits Josh Gordon nine times for 156 of his 261 yards and both touchdowns. Isaiah Crowell is the first RB to score on Carolina in five weeks, rushing for 79 yards and a TD. Nowhere near 100 percent, Cam Newton manages only 13 points. Joe Haden locks down Kelvin Benjamin (4-33-0) while Jonathan Stewart follows Jeremy Hill's lead, running for 106 yards and a score on 21 carries. Browns rebound; Johnny Football gets first win. Cleveland, 23-19.
Baltimore (-5.5) at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Ravens won for the second straight week and fourth time in their last five, putting them in the driver's seat for a wild-card berth at 9-5. Joe Flacco, 12th among QB, scored no more than 13 points or one TD in three of his last five but committed only one turnover during that stretch and faces Houston's 26th-rated pass defense (257.1 YPG). WR19 Steve Smith posted three points or fewer in five of seven while No. 27 WR Torrey Smith scored a total of one point the past two weeks. Texans allow the third-most FPPG (25.6) and TD (19) to opposing WR. Owen Daniels scored as many points against JAX (12) as the prior six games combined. Justin Forsett, eighth in RB scoring, failed to score nine points for the first time since Week 3 despite the plus matchup. Jaguars were the first team to hold Forsett under 4.0 YPC and only two teams allow fewer rushing TD than Houston (6), ninth in YPC (3.9). ... Texans lost to Indy 17-10 after winning their previous two, dropping them to 7-7 and effectively out of the playoffs. Bill O'Brien is down to Plan D at QB with Ryan Fitzpatrick (fractured tibia) and Tom Savage (knee) injured last week. Remains to be seen whether he goes with Thad Lewis or Case Keenum but Baltimore's ferocious D-line, third in NFL with 45 sacks including eight last week, will feast on either inexperienced signal-caller. Keenum, recently signed off the Rams' practice squad, went 0-8 for HOU in 2013 while Lewis is 2-4 in six career starts. Andre Johnson thrived with Keenum at QB last season (800 yards in those eight, including 9-229-3 in second start), but this is a new offense and Johnson has a measly 186 yards since Week 9. No. 13 WR DeAndre Hopkins failed to reach double figures in eight of his last 10 but Ravens allow more FPPG (25.7) to WR than any team in football. Arian Foster, fifth among RB, scored double digits for the eighth consecutive time and averages 18.1 FPPG but Baltimore allows a league-low 10.0. Foster rushes for 102.5 YPG but the Ravens' third-ranked run defense (84.3 YPG; fifth in YPC, 3.7) hasn't surrendered a 100-yard rusher in 24 straight, longest active streak.
Predictions:Justin Forsett totals 115 YFS and a TD. Joe Flacco under constant pressure from J.J. Watt, limiting him to 231 yards and one score. Houston gives it to Arian Foster 32 times, grinding out 101 hard-earned yards and touch. Neither Andre Johnson nor DeAndre Hopkins takes advantage of the cupcake matchup due to QB play. Tempted to take the points but, given Texans' QB situation, have to back Ravens in a defensive struggle. Baltimore, 19-13.
New York Giants (+5.5) at St. Louis, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Giants outscored their last two opponents by 40 points (both victories) following that ugly seven-game slide. No. 13 QB Eli Manning is the DeSean Jackson of quarterbacks: at least 22 points in four of his last eight with three different three-TD games, no more than 12 in the other four (one TD in each). Only two teams allow fewer touchdowns through the air than STL (15). Odell Beckham Jr. is a top-12 WR (third on per-game basis, 14.1 FPPG) and leading all rookies in receiving yards despite missing four games. He has at least 90 yards in seven straight (61-866-6 with 119 points over span), an NFL rookie record, and averages 21.0 FPPG the past four weeks (40-509-6). Janoris Jenkins is extremely talented but takes a lot of chances, leaving him susceptible to double-moves. TE11 Larry Donnell scored three points of fewer in five of his last six and gained no more than 28 yards in seven of 10. With Rashad Jennings likely out after aggravating his ankle injury, Andre Williams assumes workhorse role. He's not talented, averaging 3.2 YPC (3.5 or less in 12 of 14 games), but an RB2 based on volume alone. ... Rams were unable to extend their winning streak to three, falling 12-6 to Arizona in a FG fest. Before a second-quarter Cardinal FG, STL hadn't allowed a single point on opponents' previous 29 drives (152 plays). Given the shutouts in previous two games, St. Louis is giving up just 4.0 PPG their last three. Jeff Fisher finished above .500 in just six of 20 seasons as HC and last time Rams were better than 8-8 was 2003; need a QB to reverse those trends. Before last week, Tre Mason rushed for 113 and 117 yards his last two home games (DEN, OAK). Those were the only times he's reached double figures in the past eight but the G-Men rank 30th in YPG (135.1) and dead last in YPC (4.9). Amazingly, Shaun Hill has a passer rating over 100.0 in three of his last five but NYG, fourth in NFL with 41 sacks, have 27 the past four weeks-at least six in each. No. 14 TE Jared Cook scored two points or less in seven of his last nine. Stedman Bailey, averaging 10.2 YPT, has at least five catches and 74 yards in three of four.
Predictions:Odell Beckham roasts Janoris Jenkins on a 67-yard sluggo for six en route to 9-122-1. Andre Williams plods his way to 65 yards on 20 attempts but scores on a 1-yard dive. Bad Eli Manning shows up, throwing a costly pick-six. Tre Mason rushes for 124 yards and a touch. Love the G-Men getting 5.5 points; they win outright to make it three in a row. New York Giants, 20-17.
Buffalo (-5.5) at Oakland, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Bills upset the red-hot Packers 21-13, winning for the third time in four games and clinching their first .500 season since 2004 (9-7). Buffalo held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown and under 200 yards in consecutive weeks (50.0 percent, 5.8 YPA, 358 yards, 0:4 TD:INT ratio combined). This team could be dangerous with even an average QB; Kyle Orton has a 2:5 TD:INT ratio over his last three, 6.2 YPA or less in each. Sammy Watkins hit the rookie wall, falling to WR27 with three points or fewer in five of six. Watkins hasn't found the endzone in six straight while Raiders, albeit a product of game flow, allow third-fewest points to WR (16.6 FPPG). Fred Jackson has 65 touches the past three weeks, receiving 20-plus carries in two. However, Jackson has no more than 12 rushes any other game and C.J. Spiller (collarbone) received medical clearance. Spiller's last carry went for 53 yards and Oakland allows 22.0 FPPG to opposing RB, second-most. ... Raiders came back to reality after winning two of three, thrashed 31-13 by KC. Derek Carr committed at least one turnover and failed to reach 200 yards in six of eight. Carr, dead last in YPA at 5.5, posted 5.0 or worse in six of his last seven. Buffalo's fifth-ranked pass defense (210.1 YPG) allows opposing quarterbacks a 14:19 TD:INT ratio (best in NFL, t-fewest TD) and 11.4 FPPG (second-fewest). James Jones averages 7.0 yards per reception the past four weeks, failing to reach even 10.0 in seven of nine. Jones' 57 yards represented his highest total since Week 8, Andre Holmes' 70 most since Week 6. Mychal Rivera, averaging 5.8 YPT, hasn't topped 40 yards in four of five. Latavius Murray, gaining 6.1 YPC, totaled 273 YFS on just 43 touches his last three games, all difficult matchups. Bills are terrific up front and allow 13.1 FPPG to opposing RB overall (eighth-fewest), but surrendered 16 and 23 points to Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson respectively the last two weeks.
Predictions:C.J. Spiller takes his first carry 78 yards to the house as part of a 113-yard day; Fred Jackson adds 80 total yards. Sammy Watkins breaks out of his slump with six catches for 109 yards and a touch. Latavius Murray continues to impress with 99 total yards and the Raiders' only TD. Picking the Bills ATS seems too obvious after last week; take the points. Buffalo, 21-16.
Indianapolis (+3) at Dallas, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Colts won for the fourth consecutive week, clinching a third straight playoff berth. Not only have they won back-to-back AFC South titles, Indy won and covered all 12 divisional games the past two years. Andrew Luck leads the league in TD (38), yards (4492), and fantasy points (322), but scored 14 in two of his last four, committing eight TO during that stretch. Dallas' pass defense is 23rd in both yards (249.6 YPG) and YPA (7.6). T.Y. Hilton, fifth among WR, failed to score at least one TD and 12 points for the first time in four games. Hilton is dealing with a hamstring injury and Cowboys allow 18.2 FPPG to opposing WR, sixth-fewest. Donte Moncrief forfeited more snaps to Hakeem Nicks (36-22 compared to 50-18 previous week) than expected. Moncreif was targeted four times in each of the last four games, failing to reach even 40 yards in three. Reggie Wayne, averaging a career-low 6.2 YPT, has a meager 70 yards on 27 targets (2.6 YPT) the past four weeks. No. 10 TE Dwayne Allen scores a TD every 49.4 YFS and DAL allows 9.4 FPPG to enemy TE, tied for second-most. Coby Fleener, seventh in TE scoring, has five points or fewer in three of four. Trent Richardson averages 9.8 touches to Daniel Herron's 13.0 over the last four, making it hard to trust Herron despite Dallas allowing more rushing TD (17) than everyone but Atlanta. ... By dominating T.O.P. (41:55-18:05), Cowboys won for the fourth time in five weeks, vaulting into first in NFC East. That marked the first time they've won back-to-back December games since 2012 and 25th time the underdog covered in last 33 editions of DAL/PHI. Top fantasy RB DeMarco Murray carried at least 31 times and scored 20-plus points each of the past two weeks. Sounds like Murray's playing despite Monday's hand surgery; if unable to, Joseph Randle (7.0 YPC) would be an RB1 behind that OL facing a Colts defense allowing 19.1 FPPG to RB, sixth-most. QB14 Tony Romo has been surgical: excluding Thanksgiving Day, Romo scored at least three TD and 20 points in four straight with a 13:2 TD:INT ratio in those contests. No. 4 WR Dez Bryant registered the first three-TD game of his career, giving him an NFL-best 38 since 2012. Bryant (9.2 YPT) has 91 points the past five games, scoring 20-plus three times. Jason Witten, 13th in TE scoring, registered season highs in receptions (7) and targets (9) while Indy allows fifth-most points to opposing TE (9.2 FPPG).
Predictions:Andrew Luck and Tony Romo pass for 300-plus yards and three TD apiece. Orlando Scandrick contains a gimpy T.Y. Hilton (5-62-0). Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener both top 60 yards and score. In the matchup du jour, Dez Bryant catches six passes for 88 yards and a TD on Vontae Davis. DeMarco Murray plays through it, carrying 26 times for 126 yards and a touch. Cowboys, undefeated on the road, fall to 3-5 at Jerry World. Indianapolis, 31-28.
Seattle (-8) at Arizona, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Seahawks, winners of four straight and seven of eight, can clinch the NFC West and conference's top seed (with help) by winning out. Seattle, allowing 188.0 total yards and 6.75 points the last four weeks, won three of its last four against Arizona. However, the Hawks likely won't have their two best offensive lineman, Russell Okung (bruised lung) and Max Unger (knee, ankle). No. 3 RB Marshawn Lynch reached double figures in three straight and six of seven thanks to 20-plus carries in each. Lynch scored eight times the last seven weeks but only two teams allow fewer rushing TD than Arizona, sixth in YPG (90.4) and seventh in YPC (3.8). Russell Wilson, fifth in QB scoring, committed his first turnover in five games and failed to score at least 16 points for the first time since Week 9. Wilson, YPA 7.0 or better in four straight, has 23 total TD to only six turnovers. Opposing quarterbacks have an 18:18 TD:INT ratio and 7.4 YPA (20th) against Cardinals' 29th-rated pass defense (259.6 YPG). ... Cards won their second straight following the two-game skid, improving to 11-3 overall and 7-0 in games decided by 10 points or less. Despite clinching its first playoff berth since 2009 and owning the league's best record, Arizona is more than a TD-underdog at home. Lack of respect being one reason, dire straits at quarterback the other. With Drew Stanton (knee) sidelined, Bruce Arians elected to go with Ryan Lindley over uber-talented rookie Logan Thomas. Lindley, completing 52.0 percent for 4.4 YPA and 0:7 TD:INT ratio career, faces a Seahawks' pass defense No. 1 in both YPG (184.3) and FPPG allowed to QB (11.1). Larry Fitzgerald has 34 yards or fewer each in three straight and 6-37-0 combined his last three against Seattle. Michael Floyd has at least 53 yards in each of his last three but a line of 8-119-1 in five career clashes with the Seahawks, first in yards (1,637), TD (5) and FPPG (13.1) allowed to WR. Kerwynn Williams ran 34 times for 175 yards (5.1 YPC) the last two weeks. Arizona's 28th-ranked rushing offense (84.4 YPG) ranks last in YPC (3.3) while Seattle's run D is fifth in YPG (88.1) and fourth in YPC (3.6) allowed.
Predictions:Marshawn Lynch grinds out 84 yards on 21 carries. Russell Wilson totals 251 yards (49 rushing) and the game's lone touchdown. Byron Maxwell and Richard Sherman lock up Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, allowing the pair 55 yards total. Kerwynn Williams is swallowed up, managing a measly 44 yards. An Earl Thomas pick seals it, Ryan Lindley's third of the night. Seattle, 13-6.
Denver (-3.5) at Cincinnati, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Broncos won their fourth in a row since that midseason hiccup, clinching their fourth consecutive AFC West title. Still in play for the 1-seed, they're assured of a bye with a victory. Peyton Manning, third in QB scoring, has never lost to the Bengals in his career but owns a 3:3 TD:INT ratio over his last three, scoring 13 points or fewer in each. Cincy allows opposing quarterbacks a 76.4 passer rating (third), 6.4 YPA (third), 13.1 FPPG (sixth), and 14:14 TD:INT ratio. No. 2 WR Demaryius Thomas scored touchdowns in three of his last four and double-digit points in 10 of 11. WR7 Emmanuel Sanders' point total decreased in five straight, scoring seven or fewer the past three (18-16-14-7-6-5). Bengals allow the second-fewest yards (1,941), TD (7), and FPPG (15.0) to WR. Julius Thomas, sixth in TE scoring, saw just two targets on 29 snaps in his return. Thomas has no more than seven targets or 66 yards since Week 1. C.J. Anderson, 16th in RB points in essentially six games played, amassed 109 carries the past four weeks (27.25 per), equating to an NFL-record 436 over a full season. If not for an overturned TD, Anderson would've scored at least one touchdown and 16 points in all four. CIN allows 20.0 FPPG to opposing RB, fifth-most. ... Bengals recorded their third shutout in 190 games under Marvin Lewis (all three against CLE), winning for the sixth time in eight weeks. They've struggled in primetime, Andy Dalton in particular, losing three consecutive standalone games (outscored 67-20 in two this season). The key will be pressuring Manning using only their front four as they did a week ago (blitzed Manziel twice on 24 dropbacks). Dalton committed at least one turnover in four straight and seven of eight while Denver, first in YPA allowed (6.1), forced 16 INT (eighth). No. 17 WR A.J. Green failed to reach double figures for the first time in five weeks and just the second time all year. Green has 57 yards or fewer in four of seven and Aqib Talib, playing at an all-pro level, has the size and speed to hang with him. Jeremy Hill, ninth in RB points in spite of starting only half the games, scored 97 points since taking over lead-back duties seven weeks ago. Denver's run defense, second in both YPG (71.6) and YPC (3.4), allows 12.2 FPPG, fourth-fewest. RB20 Giovani Bernard has just 21 points since Week 9 (played in four, missed three) but, given his receiving prowess, could play an integral role if Cincy can't find room to run between the tackles.
Predictions:Peyton Manning throws for 291 yards and touchdowns to Julius Thomas (52 yards) and Demaryius Thomas (106 yards). Emmanuel Sanders catches seven for 97. C.J. Anderson rushes 21 times for 83 yards and a TD. With Jeremy Hill stymied inside (49 yards), Giovani Bernard contributes 80 total yards and score. A.J. Green gets the better of Aqib Talib in a sensational battle, finishing with 8-116-1. With Andy Dalton playing at night, back the Broncos; 24 of their 26 wins the last two seasons came by at least a touchdown. Denver, 27-23.
