This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Stat of the Week: The AFC North is the first division in NFL history with all teams at least three games over .500, while the NFC South is the only with each team three games or more below that mark.
Chicago (+7) at Detroit, Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Following a three-game skid (and dropping five of six), the Bears won their second straight. Defense the primary reason, allowing 13 points in each after surrendering 50-plus the previous two. Not only did Jay Cutler, somehow ninth in QB scoring, post season lows in passing yardage (130) and YPA (4.8), he's scored eight points or fewer in three of his last five and faces a Detroit defense allowing second-fewest FPPG to quarterbacks (12.5). Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were targeted five and four times, respectively, against TB, fewest all year for both (49 combined previous two weeks, 10-plus apiece in each game). Fantasy's Nos. 15 and 16 receivers have their hands full with Lions allowing just 16.6 points to opposing WR, third-fewest in the league. Excluding his 15-point effort in NE, Martellus Bennett has 22 points total points since Week 5, a span of six games. The fact that he's top six at his position is indicative of atrocious 2014 TE landscape. Matt Forte used eight touchdowns the past seven games (zero in first four) to vault into the No. 2 RB slot. Forte scored 16 or more in seven of his last eight and eight of 11 this season but Lions allow league-low 70.5 YPG and 3.2 YPC. ... Detroit lost its second straight after a four-game win streak and 7-2 start, failing to find the end zone in both. Expected to be a high-powered offense, DET hasn't scored more than 24 points since Week 1 and ranks 28th in scoring at 17.9 PPG (25.9 from 2011-13). With far less explosive Joique Bell holding a 3.5-yard average, it's clear they desperately need Reggie Bush (4.7 YPC since 2009) back healthy. Matthew Stafford, 16th in QB scoring, hasn't reached the 20-point plateau in seven games or even double figures in two straight. Although he has just one 300-yard game in his last nine and completed a career-low 39.1-percent last week, Stafford is No. 1 all-time with 283.3 career YPG, and Chicago allows 18.8 FPPG to QB, fourth most. Golden Tate, sixth in yardage and 10th in fantasy points among wide receivers, is outplaying Calvin Johnson since his return. Although the matchups were difficult, Megatron averages just 6.2 YPT over 37 targets the last three games, 4.9 if you take out his 49-yard TD against MIA. Detroit's D/ST failed to record a sack for the second week in a row (at least one in first nine games, 26 total) and averages just 4.0 FPPG over its last five.
Predictions:Matthew Stafford throws for 323 yards and three touchdowns, 146 and two to Calvin Johnson with Kyle Fuller (knee) out. Reggie Bush adds a 42-yard scoring scamper in his return. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall combine for 151 of Jay Cutler's 278 yards and both touchdowns. Matt Forte contributes most of his 92 total yards as a receiver. Lions win, Bears cover. Detroit, 30-24.
Philadelphia (+3) at Dallas, Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST
Comments: These NFC East rivals come in tied for the division lead at 8-3 and split six meetings since 2011. Philly rebounded from the beatdown in GB with a 43-24 victory over Tennessee, its 10th straight at home. With Josh Huff taking the opening kickoff to the house, nine Eagles have a return TD this season, an NFL record. LeSean McCoy, up to RB14, scored for the second time in three games. Excluding week 10, McCoy rushed for 648 yards the last six games, hitting the century mark three times with at least 21 carries in each. Mark Sanchez passed for 300-plus in all three starts but remains turnover-prone, committing at least two in three of four games played (8 total). That simply must change for Philly to advance in the playoffs. Jeremy Maclin, fifth in WR scoring despite five points or less in two of his last three, averages just 8.25 targets in those four compared to 10.9 with Foles under center. Sanchez and Jordan Matthews are clearly on the same page as the rookie jumped to WR21 with 58 points the last four games (29 targets to Maclin's 33 over that span). ... Cowboys secured their second straight victory Sunday night following back-to-back losses against WSH and ARZ. What a game-winning drive not only for Tony Romo, but that offensive line, again proving it is unquestionably the best front in football. No. 13 QB Tony Romo established season highs in TD (4) and points (25), giving him seven and 46, respectively, the last two weeks. Eagles pass defense ranks 30th in YPG (266.3) and 31st in points allowed to opposing QB (19.5). Dez Bryant, two points shy of Jeremy Maclin for No. 5 spot, secured his third consecutive double-digit TD season with his second straight multi-score game. Not only has Bryant hit paydirt six times the last four games, Philly allows the second-most points (26.3) and a league-high 17 touchdowns to WR. Terrance Williams, ice cold the last month, has three catches for 37 yards combined the past three games, scoring no more than one point in any. Despite scoring in four of six, Jason Witten has only one 10-point game to his credit all year due to 41.9 YPG. Topping the century mark 10 times already (13-plus points in each), fantasy's top RB DeMarco Murray is 403 yards clear of the second-leading rusher, Le'Veon Bell.
Predictions:LeSean McCoy keeps rolling along, out-rushing DeMarco Murray 124-117; both score. Dez Bryant catches two more touchdowns during a 134-yard day. Tony Romo throws for 304 yards and a third TD to Terrance Williams. Jeremy Maclin finishes with a 7-97-1 line. Two more picks by Mark Sanchez cost Philly. Dallas, 31-27.
Seattle (+1) at San Francisco, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: In a game they absolutely needed to stay alive in the NFC West race, Seahawks came through, handling Arizona in their best defensive performance of 2014 and fourth win in five games. Although they split the season series each of the last two years, Pete Carroll has never beaten the 49ers in San Francisco. Despite Russell Wilson's best outing as a passer since the 300-100 STL game, the loss of Max Unger was evident as Wilson was sacked seven times (just 20 in first 10 games). Wilson, fourth at his position, scored at least 18 points for the third straight time but SF allows the fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks (11.9). His rushing (644 yards, 15th in NFL and nearly double any other QB total) will be needed as 49ers allow just 207.2 YPG though the air, second in the league. Although the matchup is far from favorable with San Francisco allowing fifth-fewest points to opposing RB (12.7), Marshawn Lynch has owned them in recent years. In his last six against the hated division rival, fantasy's No. 3 RB rushed for 600 yards (four 100-yard games) and scored eight times (twice as receiver). Back issues are cause for concern, but expect a heavy dose of Beast Mode just as we've seen in last encounters (no fewer than 19 carries in any of those) if active. ... Despite sweating out each game against poor teams (all 4-7 or worse), the Niners have won three in a row to improve to 7-4. Colin Kaepernick has five touchdowns and five turnovers over his past five, scoring exactly once in each. Unlikely things improve this week as Seattle's pass defense ranks third in YPG (208.5) and second in points allowed to QB (12.5). Anquan Boldin, 18th in WR scoring, has at least 90 yards and a touchdown in four of his last six, culminating with last week's season-high 19-point output. He long since surpassed Michael Crabtree as the team's No. 1 receiver. However, Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards (1,464), touchdowns (4) and FPPG (14.9) to opposing WR. Frank Gore, working on a career-low 4.0 YPC, averaged 3.5 or worse in five of his last six. While ranked sixth overall at 88.4 YPG, Seattle's run D is far more susceptible on the road (107.8) than at CenturyLink (72.2).
Predictions:Marshawn Lynch kills the Niners again with 22-101-1 while Russell Wilson plays mistake-free. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde find little room to run, combining for just 54 yards. Vernon Davis scores his first touchdown since Week 1 as Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell shut down Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. Seahawks pull out a nail-biter as scoring slows considerably in the third leg of Thanksgiving games. Seattle, 16-13
Cleveland (+2.5) at Buffalo, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Cleveland won for the sixth time in eight games, its second in the final 10 seconds this season. Brian Hoyer hit 300-plus yards for the third time in four games and at least 8.1 YPA in four of five, but is suddenly turnover-prone. Hoyer threw a season-high three interceptions Sunday, his eighth turnover in six games after committing just one through five. Josh Gordon, 1,766 yards his last 15 games (117.7 per), was targeted an NFL-high 16 times in his debut, twice as many as any other Brown. Playing 54-of-78 snaps, Gordon reached 120 yards for the eighth time since 2013, tied with T.Y. Hilton for most during that span despite playing 12 fewer games. Clearly he adds another dimension to an offense that was already second in 15- and 20-yard completions entering Week 12 without him. All signs point to Jordan Cameron (concussion) making his return after four straight on the sideline. Very shortly, Mike Pettine is going to realize Isaiah Crowell is his best RB and stop giving Terrance West so many carries. Crowell, who averages 5.0 YPC to West's 3.7, finishes runs like a Pro Bowler and has a nose for the endzone (seven TD on 90 carries). Bills present a much tougher matchup than Atlanta, however, allowing 11.9 FPPG to opposing RB. ... Buffalo didn't allow the blizzard and scheduling issues to get the better of them, clobbering NYJ 38-3 for the largest win since 1992. That defense, second only to PHI D/ST in fantasy points, owned the Jets, scoring 39 points in two meetings. Although two sub-par performances were sandwiched in the middle (5.2 YPA combined), Kyle Orton posted a 7:0 TD:INT ratio the past four games. Sammy Watkins might be hitting the rookie wall (or affected by the groin injury), totaling just 94 yards the past three weeks and dropping to WR21. Considering the recent trend of three points or less in three straight and upcoming tussle with Joe Haden, Watkins is better off on your bench. Although his previous career high was 82 yards, Robert Woods looked great posting 9-118-1 and Buster Skrine/Justin Gilbert matchup is favorable. It looks as though Bryce Brown is third fiddle in the backfield with Fred Jackson and Anthony Dixon receiving 13 touches apiece to Brown's six. Both scored Monday and should be fantasy relevant-you can run on Cleveland's 29th-ranked run defense (134.9 YPG).
Predictions: With Leodis McKelvin (ankle) out indefinitely, Josh Gordon abuses Stephon Gilmore for 143 yards and a score. Isaiah Crowell rushes 18 times for 107 yards and a touch, his first 100-yard game. Joe Haden blankets Sammy Watkins throughout, limiting to 4-47-0 on eight looks. Bills more complete but hard to bet against Browns right now. Cleveland, 20-19.
San Diego (+5.5) at Baltimore, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Chargers eked out another win against a well below average team, but have won two straight nonetheless following the three-game slide. Philip Rivers is 10th in QB scoring but not playing like it with only 54 points his last five games. Ravens rank 29th against the pass (264.6 YPG) but Rivers has just two touchdowns with five turnovers his past three games. Keenan Allen, just inside the top-50 WR, averages 10.8 targets his past four games compared to 7.1 over the first seven. Allen recorded his second TD and 100-yard game of the year (too bad he lost two fumbles) and no team has allowed more yards to WR than Baltimore (2,250). Antonio Gates remains fourth in TE scoring despite a mere six points the past three weeks. Ryan Mathews looks outstanding since coming back from the MCL sprain, rushing 28 times for 175 yards (6.3 YPC) in two games. However, BAL is fifth in rushing (88.3 YPG) and scoring (18.9 PPG) defense. San Diego's D/ST does not travel well, scoring a paltry three points in five road games compared to 57 points in six at home. ... Ravens have also won their last two times out following a mini two-game skid. If you predicted Joe Flacco would outscore Matthew Stafford this year, you deserve a medal. Flacco is 15th in QB scoring despite just six touchdowns (five TO) and 59 points over the last five games since his 32-point, five-TD outburst in Week 6. Torrey Smith established season highs in catches (5) and yards (98) Monday night. Outside of the goose egg in Cincy, Smith scored at least nine points every game since Week 6. Steve Smith loves the big stage, exceeding six points for the first time in five games with 14 against No. Owen Daniels has disappeared from this offense with just 27 yards combined over his last two. Chargers are underrated versus the pass, ranking sixth in the NFL at 221.3 YPG. What an incredible story for Justin Forsett-seventh in RB scoring at the age of 29 having never been a feature back in his career. Forsett's career day was his second straight 20-carry, 100-yard, multi-score game (53 points over those two).
Predictions:Justin Forsett, leading the league in yards before contact per carry, totals 97 yards and scores as a receiver. Torrey Smith gets loose for a 49-yard TD. Philip Rivers outplays Joe Flacco, throwing for 291 yards and touchdowns to Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates. BAL stifles Ryan Mathews all day, limiting to 51 yards. Chargers hang tough and cover, Ravens win at home. Baltimore, 21-17.
Carolina (+3) at Minnesota, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: This seems almost ridiculous to say about a team winless over its last six, but Carolina has to be thrilled with its current position. Thanks to the most putrid division in recent memory, the 3-7-1 Panthers stand just a half-game out. With 14 turnovers his last seven games (at least one in each) and leading the league in overthrows, Cam Newton has considerably regressed. However, to call him the player he was in his first couple years would be a disservice to 2011-12 Super Cam, who was of similar caliber as a passer but much more effective with his legs. Not to exonerate the offensive line, but Newton's sack rate has increased and rushing totals decreased each season in the league due to a decline in mobility/athleticism; he's lost a step. No. 5 TE Greg Olsen has at least five catches and 61 yards in eight of 11 games, reaching double figures in six. Leading Rookie of the Year candidate Kelvin Benjamin, 11th among wide receivers, has at least 16 points each of his last two (35 total). However, Minnesota is much more vulnerable on the ground (21st, 118.9 YPG) than through the air (seventh, 223.5 YPG), which doesn't exactly play into Carolina's strengths. Not only does CAR rank 25th in rushing (96.4 YPG) and average 3.7 YPC (27th), Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have each topped the 50-yard mark just once all year. ... Although both were one-possession losses, it would appear Minnesota lost all momentum from its two-game win streak. Losers of two straight and not looking particularly sharp in either, this is more like the Vikings squad we expected to see in 2014. How sad that it took Teddy Bridgewater eight professional outings to achieve his first career multi-TD game. Derek Carr and Geno Smith are the only qualified passers with lower YPA than his 6.4 and Bridgewater remains winless as a starter when throwing an interception. Charles Johnson may have more value than Cordarrelle Patterson ROS: Johnson has 19 points and 18 targets the past two games whereas Patterson has no more than two catches or 24 yards in six of seven. Despite touching it 18 times against CHI, Jerick McKinnon posted sub-4.0 YPC for the second time in three games (3.95 over that stretch). Panthers allowed nine rushing touchdowns their last five games but McKinnon has yet to reach the painted area this season and I'm tired of predicting it.
Predictions:Cam Newton scores 20 points for the first time since Week 6. Greg Olsen hits paydirt while Kelvin Benjamin struggles. Jonathan Stewart rushes for a season-high 81 yards and a score. Jerick McKinnon tallies 118 YFS. Bridgewater throws a pick so Vikings lose. Rejuvenated Panthers squad off the bye wins their first game since Oct. 5. Carolina, 24-23.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Impressively, Bengals have won back-to-back road games since being blown out at home by Cleveland on TNF to make it four victories in its last five. As long as the defense is performing at this level (10 and 13 points allowed to NO and HOU, respectively), Andy Dalton is afforded the luxury of playing the "game manager" role. Dalton hasn't topped 233 yards in four straight but completed 70.2-percent with 8.0 YPA and 4:1 TD:INT ratio over his last two. Can you believe Sunday was the first time all year A.J. Green was targeted more than 10 times? Green, averaging a career-best 9.7 YPT, caught 18-of-24 targets for 248 yards and a touch (30 points) over this two-week stretch. Mohamed Sanu remains 13th in WR scoring overall but gained just 91 yards on 20 targets the past three weeks (4.6 YPT, 14 points) after netting 78.5 yards, 9.5 YPT, and 11.8 FPPG his first eight. Green and Sanu should feast on a TB defense allowing fourth-most points to opposing WR (25.1 FPPG). Maybe not this week against Tampa's mediocre pass rush (23 sacks), but the loss of LT Andre Smith (IR, triceps) is significant. Jeremy Hill, 13th among running backs, scored 14-plus points for the third time in four games, 60 total over that stretch. With Hill and Giovani Bernard receiving roughly half the workload (both 19 touches versus NO), they're both RB2 ROS. ... The 2-9 Bucs have lost five of six and haven't won in Tampa all year. Josh McCown averages 310 YPG (at least 288 in each) over his last three. However, McCown has five TD with five turnovers during that span and opposing quarterbacks have 11:11 TD:INT ratio against Cincinnati (best in NFL). Mike Evans, ninth among WR, caught just three of 11 targets, finally cooling off from that torrid three-week stretch. Evans, netting a ridiculous 10.3 YPT this season, has touchdowns (six total) and 10-plus points in four straight. Vincent Jackson finally woke up with his second 100-yard effort of 2014 but hasn't found the endzone in seven games. Does it even matter who starts at RB for this team? For the record, Doug Martin did last week; but no Buccaneer back has rushed for even 40 yards in three straight. Martin and Charles Sims both average 3.0 YPC or worse.
Predictions:Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard both score touchdowns and gain 80-plus yards. A.J. Green records his third straight 120-yard game. Cincy proves why they've allowed three fewer passing TD than any other team, limiting Josh McCown to one on 43 attempts (277 yards). Mike Evans posts 5-62-0, ending his scoring streak at four. Bengals win third in a row. Cincinnati, 24-20.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Tennessee, owners of a five-game losing streak and 2-9 record, lost four of its last five meetings with Houston, including a 30-16 week-eight defeat. Zach Mettenburger looks as promising as any rookie signal-caller and just might have a future in this league (serviceable QB, not Pro-Bowler). Mettenburger, averaging 8.1 YPA overall, notched his first career 300-yard game and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio for the third time in four weeks. Delanie Walker, averaging a robust 15.5 YPC and 9.3 YPT, returned with a vengeance, establishing career bests with 155 yards and a 68-yard reception. Not only was that his second 140-yard game this season, fantasy's No. 7 TE accomplished that on just five catches. Before you get excited about Justin Hunter, remember 10 of his 12 points came on one play and he caught just 3-of-9 targets for 24 yards outside the 40-yard touchdown. Houston's 31st-ranked pass defense (274 YPG) presents a sneaky good matchup. Bishop Sankey, held under 4.0 YPC in seven straight, averages 3.9 YPC this season, the same number Houston allows (10th in NFL). ... Texans lost for the fifth time in their last seven, dropping to 5-6 this season. That recent trend, along with the loss of Ryan Mallett (torn pectoral) and uncertain status of Arian Foster (groin), makes it hard to trust HOU in survivor pools despite the opponent. Ryan Fitzpatrick, he of the 31-54-1 career record, reassumes the starting role with Mallett's injury but must avoid the turnovers that have plagued him throughout his career (at least one in six of last seven games). Although I predicted an Andre Johnson decline in training camp, it's been worse than expected. Johnson actually leads the NFL in target market share at 32.3-percent but doing absolutely nothing with it (6.4 YPT). He's gained just 171 yards on 41 targets his last four games, good for 42.75 YPG and 4.2 YPT. Despite a down week of 39 yards (398 in previous four), DeAndre Hopkins has 26 receptions and 48 targets his last five games with at least four and eight in each, respectively. Tennesse allows just 233.4 YPG through the air, 11th in NFL. Houston desperately needs Arian Foster back: not only is he fifth in RB scoring and seventh in rushing despite missing three full games, Alfred Blue hasn't topped 3.2 YPC in eight of 11 games. Titans run defense is dead last in the league, allowing 145.4 YPG.
Predictions:Arian Foster plays, and plays well, taking full advantage of the juicy matchup with 121 yards and two scores. DeAndre Hopkins out-gains Andre Johnson yet again, 81-61. Delanie Walker catches six passes for 77 yards and touchdown. Jadeveon Clowney records his first professional sack. Thanks to J.J. Watt and company, Texans overcome sloppy offensive performance to win; Titans cover. Houston, 23-17.
Washington (+9.5) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Redskins have lost three straight, averaging 10.0 PPG their last two. Not sure what to make of Jay Gruden benching Robert Griffin III, 4-14 as starter since 2013 (9-6 as rookie). On one hand, Colt McCoy gives them a better chance to win right now (am I really saying these words?) given RG3 is 0-4 in games he's finished, passing for 207.8 YPG while adding little on the ground (4.4 carries, 20.0 yards). Only Chad Henne has been sacked more often than Griffin, who's scored two touchdowns in five games played. On the other, McCoy isn't the future and Skins need to determine if RG3 is. WR16 Desean Jackson cooled off considerably these past two games, held under 40 yards in each (6-74-0 total) after posting 10-256-1 his previous two (at least 120 in both). Pierre Garcon has been dreadful, combining for 7-55-0 the last three weeks with no more than 34 yards in any. QB change primarily affects Alfred Morris, who carried 96 times for 489 yards (5.1 YPC) and five touchdowns in Griffin's five starts, rushing for at least 85 yards in each. However, fantasy's No. 9 RB registered 97 carries for 337 yards (3.5 YPC) in the other six, scoring only twice with no more than 77 yards in any. Colts defense is a strong streaming option having scored 12-plus points in four of its last five at home (exception: versus NE) while Washington allows sixth-most FPPG (8.7) to opposing D/ST. ... Thanks to a strong defensive performance, Indy rebounded from its SNF blowout loss to the Patriots. However, they failed to score 24 points for a second straight game, which happened just once the first nine (32.2 PPG in those). Andrew Luck, whose 300-yard game streak ended at eight, finally succumbed to Peyton Manning, abdicating the throne of No. 1 QB with a season-low 14 points. Although he failed to score at least 18 points and multiple touchdowns for the first time, Washington allows third-most points to quarterbacks (19.3 FPPG). Even with Dwayne Allen out, Coby Fleener scored a meager two points after putting up 27 his previous two games, no less than 13 in either. Reggie Wayne, whose three catches and 10 yards were both season lows, has no more than 35 yards and three points in four of six. Meanwhile, T.Y. Hilton, coming straight from the delivery room, scored and reached the century mark for the fourth time in his last six. Since being traded to Indianapolis Week 3 of 2013, Trent Richardson has 284 carries for 891 yards (3.14 YPC). Every other Colts' back over that same time: 1,810 yards on 379 rushes (4.78 YPC), per Field Yates. Redskins allow just 12.5 FPPG to opposing RB, fourth-fewest.
Predictions:Andrew Luck goes off for 354 yards and all four IND touchdowns (one rushing). T.Y. Hilton finishes with 94 yards, Reggie Wayne 82; both score. Coby Fleener finds the endzone during a 63-yard day. Desean Jackson scores from 52 yards out. Alfred Morris needs 22 carries to hit 75 yards but finds the endzone. Colts, survivor pick of the week, take care of business but Skins cover. Indianapolis, 28-20.
New York Giants (-2.5) at Jacksonville, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Giants, 0-8 versus teams currently over .500, have lost six straight but the last two were by a combined nine points (all others double-digit losses). Eli Manning was terrific for the most part Sunday night, recording his third 300-yard game and a season-high 8.4 YPA. Unfortunately, two inaccurate throws (tipped INT and overthrow on final drive) were the difference. Manning has 1,260 yards over his last four games, at least 280 in each. This just in: Odell Beckham is freaky athletic. Not only was that the best catch I've ever seen, kid's a budding superstar. And, when Victor Cruz is back next year, that aerial attack will be scary. Beckham, 25th in WR scoring despite four missed games, caught 31-of-44 targets for 503 yards the past four weeks, at least 6-9-93 in each. Larry Donnell has 26 yards or fewer in five of his last seven, 225 total on 21 catches over that stretch. Those 120 total yards were Rashad Jennings' most since Week 3 and second-highest total in seven games this year. However, Jennings gained just 111 yards on his last 37 carries (3.0 YPC) compared to 286 the previous 37 (5.0 YPC). Jacksonville ranks 27th against the pass, 28th versus the run, 30th in total defense, and 32nd in scoring. Juicy matchup for Giants D/ST as Jaguars allow a league-worst 14.0 FPPG to opposing defenses, no less than seven points in any game and double digits in nine of 11. ... Jacksonville lost its fourth straight by 10 or more, outscored by 14.5 PPG during that span. Blake Bortles was held to a season-low 146 passing yards in Indy and hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 9. Bortles, whose thrown a pick in every game he's played, has one TD or fewer in seven of eight starts but NYG allowing 20 FPPG to opposing QB over its last six. Marqise Lee led the team in receiving for the first time in his best game since opening day while Cecil Shorts recorded season lows in catches (1) and yards (2). Outside of two 100-yard performances, Shorts has no more than 41 yards in any game (26.5 YPG in those six). YFS totals for Denard Robinson are trending in the wrong direction (past five: 127-118-104-70-72) but Giants' 31st-ranked run D allows 142.6 YPG.
Predictions: Good Eli Manning shows up again with 288 yards and three touchdowns. Rashad Jennings totals 128 from scrimmage, scoring as a receiver. Odell Beckham hauls in six for 96 yards and a touch; Rueben Randle scores. Denard Robinson hits paydirt during a 93-yard day. Marqise Lee leads JAX with 77 yards. G-Men win for the first time since Week 5. New York Giants, 24-21.
New Orleans (+4.5) at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: After winning 11 straight at home dating back to 2012, Saints lost inside the Superdome for the third time in as many weeks. Yet, even at 4-7, remain tied for the division lead in the pathetic NFC South. Drew Brees established/tied season highs in completions (35), yards (420), TD (3), and fantasy points (27). Brees, who completed 79.1-percent (at least 77.8 in each) of passes the past two weeks, is fifth in QB scoring and on pace for his fifth career 5,000-yard season. Oddly, Jimmy Graham averages just 8.0 YPC his last three games, under 10.0 in each (current clip of 10.3 would be career low). Although his 60.9 YPG would be Graham's worst since his rookie year, the No. 2 TE has 62 points the past five games thanks to scoring touchdowns and 11-plus points in four of those. Marques Colston's 82 yards were his most in five games, scoring his first TD since Week 2. Filling the Brandin Cooks void, Kenny Stills came in just five yards short of a season high in yards with 98 and caught a career-best eight passes. RB12 Mark Ingram has 94 yards on 34 carries (2.8 YPC) his past two games after rushing 81 times for 392 yards (4.8 YPC) the previous three and faces another top-10 run defense. ... Coming off a loss to the lowly Jets, Steelers rebounded with an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback in Tennessee, their fourth victory in five games. Second-leading rusher Le'Veon Bell was the story, running for a career-high 204 yards, first time over the century mark since Week 3. Bell is fourth in RB scoring after a season-best 27 points and faces a Saints defense that Justin Forsett just gashed for 182 yards on only 22 carries. Following his record-breaking two-game stretch of 12 TD, Ben Roethlisberger has a 2:3 TD:INT ratio his last two. However, fantasy's No. 7 QB completed 65-plus percent in five straight (9-of-11 this year) and his current clip (68.3) would be a career high (7.9 YPA best since 2010). Antonio Brown lost his top WR spot during the off week, supplanted by Demaryius Thomas. Scoring five times the past five games, Brown already established a career high with 10 TD (one passing). Martavis Bryant came back to earth after point totals of 10-20-16-20 his first four games [on just 6.0 targets per], failing to find the endzone for the first time.
Predictions:Drew Brees throws for 322 yards and all three Saint touchdowns. Jimmy Graham, just 76 yards the past two weeks, hits the century mark for the first time since Week 2 and scores 10th TD. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant combine for 178 of Ben Roethlisberger's 288 yards and both scores. Le'Veon Bell tallies 119 YFS and a touch. Saints can't even win at home lately; back the Steelers. Pittsburgh, 28-23.
Oakland (+7) at St. Louis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Raiders won for the first time in over a calendar year, squeaking one out with a game-winning drive in the final minutes after giving up a 14-point lead. Fitting that a team with just two rushing touchdowns coming in scores the first two on Kansas City all year. Latavius Murray ignited a historically poor running game (on pace for 1,008 yards entering Week 12) with 4-112-2, becoming the first player in league history with 110-plus yards on less than five carries. If Murray, who had just 10 rushes the first 10 games, clears concussion protocol and doesn't see the lion's share of the workload, Tony Sparano needs to be drug tested. Honestly, Darren McFadden produced 84 yards on 40 attempts (2.1 YPC) the past four games. Derek Carr probably plays better than numbers indicate most weeks due to surrounding cast, but the rookie has one game over 6.3 YPA all season and ranks dead last among qualifying passers in that category (5.5). Although James Jones' yardage totals have increased in three straight, the peak was 47 against KC. Andre Holmes had eight more yards Thursday than his previous three games combined (47). ... Rams are finally out of a brutal 10-game stretch in which they played teams with winning records every week. They fared quite well all things considered, alternating wins and losses over their last six. Shaun Hill was far from impressive against SD (5.7 YPA, 51.4-percent), throwing the game-ending interception at the GL in the waning seconds. Tavon Austin scored his first (and nearly a second via punt return) touchdown of the season while Kenny Britt failed to hit 40 yards for the fifth time in seven games. Tre Mason hasn't found the endzone in five straight, sub-4.0 YPC the last four. However, Raiders, despite being much better than advertised defensively, allow 20.8 FPPG to opposing RB, fourth-most in football.
Predictions:Latavius Murray, cleared to practice Wednesday, follows up his big night with 104 yards and a touch on 17 carries. Robert Quinn and Co. sack Derek Carr five times and force two ugly interceptions. Tre Mason rushes 21 times for 91 yards, scoring from 19 yards out. Jared Cook scores the other TD. Tempted to pick Oakland outright, but Rams' D is legit and Raiders inept offensively. St. Louis, 17-16.
Arizona (-2.5) at Atlanta, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Cardinals were thoroughly dominated by Seattle, snapping their six-game winning streak. Drew Stanton failed to exceed 5.8 YPA, 54.5-percent, and 167 yards passing in three of his five starts, throwing a grand total of zero touchdowns in those contests. Shouldn't be the case this week as ATL surrenders 8.2 YPA, 31st in NFL. Larry Fitzgerald missed his first game since 2007, but had 342 yards in three games prior to the MCL sprain. Michael Floyd registered one point or fewer five times this season and a pathetic 202 yards since Week 4, a span of eight games. John Brown, who has 60-plus yards in three straight and four of five, caught three of Stanton's five touchdowns this season. No. 10 RB Andre Ellington, who ranks dead last in YPC (3.3) and yards after contact per carry (1.2) among RB with 125-plus carries, rushed 47 times for 89 yards (1.9 YPC) the past three games. However, Falcons allow second-most points to opposing RB (21.9 FPPG), giving up 30 or more to the position in more than half their games. ... The Falcons should be 4-0 since Week 8, but flat out threw away two games to DET and CLE. Despite going 0-7 outside the division (4-0 within), Atlanta leads the NFC South and would have a home playoff game if the season ended today. Somehow Matt Ryan is 11th in QB scoring despite no more than 15 points in seven straight, exactly one TD in five of those. No. 12 WR Julio Jones scored his first touchdown since Week 3, giving him 11-plus points in two of his last three. Jones' 8.3 YPT are still good by NFL standards, but well below his (10.1-9.3-9.7 first three seasons). Roddy White, 21st in WR scoring and certainly playing better than his running mate, has 37 catches and 57 points his last five games, all over 65 yards. Those two have their hands full with Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie; it almost doesn't even matter who covers whom. Hard to believe but Steven Jackson is an RB2 (22nd in RB scoring), thanks to touchdowns and 10-plus points in three of his last four games. However, he's been outscored by Matt Asiata and AZ ranks third in YPG (84.5), fifth in YPC (3.6), and second in FPPG allowed to RB (11.2).
Predictions:Andre Ellington busts out of his slump in a big way with 154 yards (103 rushing) and a touchdown. Michael Floyd gets fed 10 targets, converting six for 90 yards and a score. A week after Joe Haden got the best of him, Julio Jones handled (5-58-0 on 11 targets) by Patrick Peterson. Steven Jackson is stifled throughout, gaining 33 yards on 15 carries. Feels like a great spot to take Atlanta, but not getting less than a FG with Cards fresh off a loss. Arizona, 23-20.
New England (+3) at Green Bay, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: New England won its third straight against a division leader to improve to an NFL-best 32-3 in second halves since 2010. Not only are the Patriots averaging 39.6 PPG, opposing D/ST have minus-26 points collectively during their seven-game winning streak with none scoring more than one point. The Detroit win was its fourth in a row by 20 points, tying the 2007 squad for longest in franchise history. Since that slow start, No. 6 QB Tom Brady averages 23.7 FPPG over his last seven, all multi-TD games. Top TE Rob Gronkowski gained at least 68 yards for a seventh straight week, but failed to score for the first time in four games and Packers allowed just two TE touchdowns all year (both in same game to NO). This is ridiculous, but Tim Wright is 13th in TE scoring despite exceeding 20 yards just three times all year. Julian Edelman has at least nine catches and 89 yards in two of his last three, catching 25 passes over that span. Brandon LaFell has 97 yards or more in four of his last eight. Reunited with his former team, LeGarrette Blount took full advantage of Jonas Gray's alarm-clock mishap, scoring 19 points. GB allows 136.7 YPG on the ground, 30th in NFL. ... Since losing in Detroit, Green Bay is 7-1, winning five times by at least three touchdowns. Third-ranked QB Aaron Rodgers, who's won 15 of his last 16 at Lambeau, scored at least two TD and 18 points in each of those eight contests. Matt Cassel, on IR since September, has thrown more interceptions than Rodgers, who owns an NFL-best 30:3 TD:INT ratio. Patriots have allowed seven multi-TD passers this season. Only two receivers have scored more touchdowns than No. 3 WR Jordy Nelson: Randall Cobb and Dez Bryant. Cobb, 7th in WR scoring, hasn't scored in two straight after doing so in each of his last six. Expect the Pats, who allow fourth-fewest FPPG to opposing WR (16.7), to deploy Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner as they did a week ago with Cobb's playing style similar to Golden Tate's. Eddie Lacy, eighth among running backs, scored as a rusher and receiver for the second week in a row, his fourth straight 17-point game.
Predictions: In a likely SB preview and first meeting between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, both quarterbacks are sensational with 300-plus yards and three TD apiece. Eddie Lacy scores for the 10th time in nine games during a 78-yard day. Rob Gronkowski, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson all score in double figures. After forcing 18 turnovers its last eight games, GB can't get one out of NE. Can't imagine picking against either team given recent play, but Patriots better defensively. New England, 31-30.
Denver (-1.5) at Kansas City, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Broncos are 2-2 the past four games but 5-0 in their last five meetings with KC, outscoring them by an average of 13.4 PPG (all by 7-plus points). Denver's offense boasts four players who are top four at their respective positions. Peyton Manning, who reclaimed his throne of top fantasy quarterback, has at least two touchdowns and 20 points in 10 of 11 games. He currently a TD pass in 50 straight and should break Drew Brees' record (54) in Week 17. Manning snapped his streak of three straight multi-INT games but faces the football's top-ranked pass defense (198.9 YPG). Demaryius Thomas overtook Antonio Brown for No. 1 WR with his eighth straight game in double figures. Although he came up 13 yards short of his eighth consecutive 100-yard effort, he snapped a four-game scoreless streak with a hat trick against MIA. Emmanuel Sanders, fourth in WR scoring, has 93 points his last five games, scoring 14-plus in each. Sanders, who reached double digits in six straight and nine of his last 10, hit the century mark seven times already (tied with DT for tops in NFL), including four of his last five. No. 4 TE Julius Thomas has only 149 yards since Week 7, a span of six games (played in five), averaging 29.8 per with only one game over 33 yards during that time. Saving his fantasy value are an NFL-best 12 touchdowns, including four multi-score games. Wes Welker scored his first touchdown in five weeks but remains virtually non-existent with 17 catches for 106 yards (6.2 YPC) over that span, never topping 31 yards. C.J. Anderson has 56 points the last three weeks with at least 22 in two of those (10-plus in each), Chiefs surrendered a league-low two rushing touchdowns all year (both last week). ... Chiefs, who punted seven times in the first 35 minutes last Thursday, won five straight before falling to the winless Raiders. Their defense, 15th among D/ST despite being one of just two defenses to score at least one point every week (BAL), was the key as KC only out-gained opponents by an average of 10.8 YPG during that run. Alex Smith hasn't thrown an interception in six straight but has a modest seven TD (one rushing) his last seven games. His 17-point performance versus OAK was his first over 15 in seven weeks but Denver allows 18.0 FPPG, fifth-most in NFL. Jamaal Charles, sixth among RB, scored at least one touchdown and 14 points in six straight (111 total, 18.5 FPPG) with all 11 TD coming in last eight games. Kansas City has scored a league-best 16 times on the ground but Denver ranks second against the run (75.5 YPG). Travis Kelce reached double figures only twice and exceeded six targets or four receptions just once all year. Kelce remains 10th in TE scoring despite a paltry eight points his last three games. Dwayne Bowe, nine targets combined the last two weeks (22 in previous two), averages 1.4 more YPT (8.2-6.8) and catches 12.2-percent more of said targets (65.7-53.5) this season than from 2012-13.
Predictions: Broncos OL contains leading-sacker Justin Houston (13.0) and that pass rush reasonably well, allowing Peyton Manning to pass for 308 yards and three TD. Demaryius Thomas doubles his Week 2 total against KC with 124 yards and two scores. Emmanuel Sanders is held to 6-68-0. Julius Thomas catches a GL fade. C.J. Anderson manages just 73 total yards. Jamaal Charles rushes for 94 hard-earned yards and two short scoring plunges. In my best bet of the week, Broncos prevail. Denver, 27-21.
Miami (-6.5) at New York Jets, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Dolphins lost two of three following their three-game winning streak, falling to DET and DEN by a combined seven points (all six wins by 13 or more). Ryan Tannehill, eighth in QB scoring, averages 18.8 FPPG since the week-five bye. He's still looking for his first 300-yard game, but completing at least 70-percent in each of his last four. Tannehill scored 26-plus for the second time in four games and Jets allow league-worst 19.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. WR20 Mike Wallace, under 40 yards in two straight, reached double figures just once the past five weeks and averages a career-low 12.3 YPC. Jarvis Landry caught 24 passes his last four games, at least five in each, with four going for touchdowns. No. 15 RB Lamar Miller averaged 4.5 YPC or better in four of his last five but hasn't found the painted area in three straight, resulting in just 15 points. The criminally underutilized Miller, more than 15 carries just once all season, faces a Jet run defense fourth in YPG (86.2) and third in YPC (3.4). ... Coming off the upset victory over Pittsburgh preceding the bye, New York was drubbed 38-3 Monday night by Buffalo. Geno Smith, second-worst YPA among qualifying passers (5.96), replaces Michael Vick despite throwing at least one interception in seven of eight starts. Vick, like a punch-drunk boxer whose body has taken too much abuse over time, flat out takes too many sacks (16 last four games, at least three in each). Miami allows 12.9 FPPG (fifth-fewest), 6.2 YPA (second-fewest), and 211.7 YPG (fourth-fewest) to opposing quarterbacks; good luck GeNo. Percy Harvin, targeted just five teams each the past two games (22 in first two as a Jet), has no more than three catches or 23 receiving yards in three of four games with NY. Eric Decker scored six points or less in four of his last five with just one TD during that stretch. Averaging just 51.3 YPG, Eric Decker has no more than 65 yards since opening day and a season high of 74. Chris Ivory rushed 42 times for 147 yards the past four games (3.5 YPC, 3.6 or less in three of them) and Miami ranks 11th versus the run (104.2 YPG). Chris Johnson averages 5.3 YPC over his last three (25-132), out-rushing his teammate twice.
Predictions: Tough sledding for Lamar Miller until he breaks off a 44-yarder to finish with 15-89-1. Ryan Tannehill's stellar play continues, completing 71-percent for 8.4 YPA and 19 points. He also finally connects on a deep ball to Mike Wallace, who hits the century mark for the first time. Geno Smith throws two ill-advised interceptions. Jet touchdowns scored by Chris Ivory and Percy Harvin, his first since the trade. Dolphins take care of business in the big apple, cover. Miami, 22-14.
