This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
NFL Futures: 2023 Cleveland Browns Betting Preview
The NFL landscape changes quickly. Last year's also-ran can turn into a contender in as little as a single season. I've identified the Cleveland Browns as the team that will make a significant jump this season. I'll highlight the critical areas that I expect will make them a top team before giving betting advice.
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Quarterback
Let's face it, very few teams are championship contenders without a franchise quarterback. Last year, the Browns handed Deshaun Watson a fully-guaranteed five-year contract. After serving his suspension last year, he looked terrible. Aside from the problems he caused off the field that likely distracted him, I thought he struggled to acclimate to the speed of the game after missing almost two years. He'll be 28 years old at the beginning of the season, so it's unlikely he lost his skill. I expect him to regain the speed of the game and return to the level of elite play he showed while playing with the Texans.
Offensive Line
The Browns may not possess the top-three line they had a few years ago, but they have no weak links. None of the linemen are older than 31, and aside from center Ethan Pocic (second year with the team), the rest of the unit has been together for at least four years. Aside from left tackle Jedrick Wills, the other four linemen are excellent run blockers. In pass protection, two blockers are average while the others are very good. This line will help RB Nick Chubb dominate while giving Watson very good protection.
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Pass Rush
Having Myles Garrett as an edge rusher is a luxury that very few teams have. However, when a team doesn't have another excellent option, a player like Garrett can be limited at times. In the offseason, the Browns made four critical moves. Their best move was adding Za'Darius Smith, who is a top-10 pass rusher, to line up across from Garrett. They also added another strong edge presence in Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Finally, to bolster the interior pressure, Dalvin Tomlinson was signed. This could be one of the elite groups in the league.
Pass coverage
Although Denzel Ward is the biggest name in the secondary, he played at an average level last year. Cleveland actually had above-average coverage from Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson in 2022. Also, two of their three top safeties, Juan Thornhill and Rodney McLeod are solid in coverage. Especially with an improved pass rush, they won't have to cover as long, which will make them even better in coverage.
Parting Shots
These were the top-four areas that often lead to a team being a contender. Although I didn't focus on anything else, they have strong skill-position players in Chubb, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku. Their defensive additions also are expected to improve their terrible run defense of 2022.
Cleveland Browns Best Bets This Season
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Browns making the playoffs (+120). With seven teams making the playoffs, it's possible a team gets in with nine wins. Even if Watson doesn't return to his performance level from his days in Houston, there is a strong probability they make the playoffs.
Longshot
Browns to win the Super Bowl (+4000). Longshots are called that for a reason. Every year, some longshots turn into winning tickets. Of course, we don't want to burn money, but if you're sprinkling in money on a portfolio of bets, this is not an automatic loser. The main thing that needs to happen is Watson returning to form. If that happens, he showed during his days in Houston that he can hang with any QB in the league. Otherwise, the offensive line is excellent, the pass rush appears to be championship level and the coverage is well above average. The pieces are in place for them to hang with any team. Now they just have to play the games.
