This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
I ran through the draft prop offerings in the Draftkings Sportsbook and picked out my 10 favorite angles. This isn't meant to be read as a proposed portfolio exactly, it's just an assorted collection of things that stood out to me. Some of them are riskier than others.
There are 12 props listed here over 10 subjects (two props each on Jameson Williams and George Pickens). There's even an additional Irresponsible Dollar Bet at the end for a fitting No. 13. Do not look upon it, lest the horror descend you into madness.
The props are not listed in any particular order.
Jameson Williams Under 12.5 (-115)
Jameson Williams Top 10 (+125)
Williams should be no later than the second wide receiver selected, and it seems more likely that four wide receivers go in the top 10 than less than two. The ACL tear he suffered late in the 2021 season is not a concern for his long-term projection, and it might not even matter much for the short term either.
George Pickens Under 36.5 (-130)George Pickens Top 32 (+100)
If Pickens is a favorite to go by 36 then it might be a bit stingy to say he's unlikely to go in the top 32. If one receiver goes a little earlier than teams expected then it wouldn't be shocking to see Pickens in the mid-20s. He needs the wide receiver run to happen, because the later the receivers start to go the less inflation there might be for players like Pickens and fellow fringe first rounders Jahan Dotson and Skyy Moore. I apologize but I think I have to pull the Pickens bets because at the same time I posted this Bruce Feldman posted an article at the Athletic indicating that Pickens is viewed as a character risk. Pickens was extremely productive at a young age so it's hard to believe he has work ethic issues, but Feldman must have heard something.
GB First Position selected: WR (-165)
If the Packers don't get a top receiver prospect in this draft then they might as well consider Aaron Rodgers' window closed. Great as Rodgers has been the last two years, the losses of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are huge, and it was only three years ago that Rodgers looked barely capable of starting before his two-year resurgence. Making Allen Lazard his WR1 is a good way to bring back 2019 Rodgers.
NYJ First Position selected: OL (+350)
The Jets have some kind of issue with Mekhi Becton and are expected to move on somehow. All of Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal and Charles Cross are options to do so at the fourth pick.
KC First Position selected: DB (+350)
This reasoning is mostly based on the departures of safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen. Dax Hill or Lewis Cine would make a lot of sense for the Chiefs at safety, and they could use a big outside corner like Andrew Booth or Kaiir Elam to replace top corner Charvarius Ward, who signed with San Francisco in free agency.
DAL First Position selected: DL/Edge (+450)
Dallas attempted to re-sign but lost Randy Gregory to Denver in free agency, and Demarcus Lawrence's contract is an issue. A player like Boye Mafe would provide Dallas with substantial value at at the 24th pick. Dallas needs edge defenders, and this draft has stronger options at their pick than most other drafts. If they were prepared to pay Gregory before he went to Denver, then the 24th overall selection for a player like Mafe is an undisputed bargain in comparison.
Team to Select Malik Willis: Detroit (+350)
Even if they don't take him at the second overall pick, Detroit should seriously think about making it a point to acquire Willis in the first round. They're stuck with Jared Goff another year, so redshirting Willis would be easy and thus the rawness concerns with Willis wouldn't apply as much in their case. If the Lions don't take a quarterback this year then they'll go into 2023 needing a quarterback even more, but with less draft capital to acquire one and no guarantee that any prospects are as good as Willis or Desmond Ridder, let alone better. Betting on a team to do what makes sense is risky in a league where many fools are in charge, but the Lions are borderline required to make a quarterback selection in the first round if they want to compete for more than a wildcard berth in the next three years.
Titans First Position Selected: Offensive Line (+185)
One good way to make the Derrick Henry contract age poorly would be to let the Titans' offensive line fall into disarray. The Isaiah Wilson pick was a good first step toward that outcome, and the departure of guard Rodger Saffold offers another chance for the Titans to lose ground in the trenches, which they are dependent on for any competitive success. Luckily for the Titans, there should be three guards who grade as strong picks at their first round selection – Tyler Smith, Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green – and all of them are stout maulers who fit the Tennessee aesthetic. The Titans should consider themselves fortunate to have such easy plug-in replacements for Saffold as realistic options in the first round.
Tyler Linderbaum Over 27.5 (-105)
Linderbaum is the far and away consensus C1, so if a team is desperate for a zone-scheme starting center they might be willing to pay a surprisingly high price for Linderbaum's services. The question is how lively such a market could be when an undersized, zone-blocking center is basically a niche category. Normally this is the category of player you pursue as a Moneyball hack – paying less for smaller, quicker centers rather than trying to match the bids for the more coveted size/speed prospects – so Linderbaum would mark a pretty big exception to that rule as a 6-foot-2, 296-pound center with short arms.
Trent McDuffie Over 17.5 (+115)
Perhaps DraftKings and others have gotten word from NFL sources that McDuffie will go in the first 20 picks, because outside of intel there's no basis for assuming as much. McDuffie is sometimes compared to Jaire Alexander and perhaps this informs his enthusiastic public reception. Unfortunately, he is not Jaire Alexander. McDuffie has short arms and lesser athleticism than Alexander, who can do everything. McDuffie won't be playing the press like Alexander does, and he's less likely to thrive on an island. McDuffie is definitely a good player and one worth a first-round pick, but Alexander is a star.
Irresponsible $1 Bet (LOOK AWAY)
Leo Chenal First LB Selected (+7500)
Here is your Irresponsible Dollar Bet. Chenal is of course a long shot to be the first linebacker selected. That's expected to be Utah's Devin Lloyd (-500), and there are still five more linebackers (Nakobe Dean +400, Quay Walker +1000, Christian Harris +3500, Troy Anderson +5000, Chad Muma +5000) favored ahead of Chenal. Even if for just a dollar, if you place this bet that means you are as dumb as I am, which is a perilous place to be.
But the Patriots at the 21st pick might have an oversized interest in Chenal because he's a prototypical Parcells/Belichick inside linebacker, and might offer them a more athletic version of Dont'a Hightower's inimitable functions as a linebacker who eats gaps on almost a defensive tackle-like level. Chenal was the best player on a suffocating Wisconsin defense, posting elite production across the categories of sacks, tackles and tackles for loss. Then he ran a 4.53-second combine 40 (96th percentile among ILBs according to Mockdraftable) at a mammoth 6-foot-3, 250 pounds (89th percentile). His vertical (41 inches, 99th percentile) and broad jump (128 inches, 98th percentile) were also plainly elite. Chenal will eat the pocket in the NFL.
The prop almost certainly won't work, but if it does it only takes $1 to profit $75.
