Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Vikings vs. Seahawks

We're treated to an above-average NFL game Monday night, as the 9-2 Seahawks host the 8-3 Vikings in a game with big playoff implications. Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a solid 49.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook, indicating there should be plenty of fantasy points on both sides of the ball.

QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD) and Kirk Cousins ($9,000 DK, $15,000 FD) haven't been used as significant volume passers this season, with the former throwing the 19th-most passes in the league while the latter is six spots further down the list. However, only Lamar Jackson has thrown more touchdown passes than Wilson, who has played one fewer game, and Cousins' 8.6 YPA is the best among quarterbacks with at least nine starts. So, while they haven't been asked to pass often, they are two of the more efficient passers in the league. 

Wilson has thrown for at least 300 yards just three times this season, two of which came in Weeks 2 and 3, but he remains an elite fantasy quarterback because of his rushing ability, as only Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson have run for more yards, and each have played one more game. Meanwhile, Cousins barely runs, but he also has thrown for at least three touchdowns in four of his last six games, and coming off a bye will give him extra time to prepare to face a Seahawks defense that's allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on DraftKings this season, though they are 15th on FanDuel. Much of their struggles were early in the season, as they allowed multiple passing touchdowns just once since Week 4. On the other hand, the Vikings have conceded the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on FanDuel and 14th on DraftKings, though they haven't faced a quarterback who can run like Wilson.

Both players will be popular captain/MVP picks, with the betting odds showing they're expected to be close, as Wilson's passing yards prop is set at 264.5 (-134 for the over, +104 under) while Cousins' is 263.5 (-112 on both sides), though Wilson is -215 to passing for more than 1.5 touchdowns (+164 under) while Cousins is -122 for the over and -104 for the under.

RUNNING BACKS

The Vikings' Dalvin Cook ($11,800 DK, $14,500 FD) is the most expensive player on DraftKings and trails only the quarterbacks on FanDuel, which is understandable since he's been one of the highest-scoring players in the NFL this season. While he's failed to rush for more than 100 yards in each of the past four games, something he did five times in the first seven, his pass-catching ability easily took him over 100 total yards in three of his last four. However, he comes in off one of his worst games of the season, rushing 11 times for 26 yards and a touchdown and catching five of six targets for 31 receiving yards. Yes, 16.7 DraftKings points and 14.2 FanDuel points represented his second-lowest of the season. However, he now faces a Seahawks defense that's allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and 11th-fewest on FanDuel, so he isn't walking into an ideal situation. 

On the plus side for Cook, backup Alexander Mattison ($2,200 DK, $6,000 FD) has seen his offensive snaps drop lately, even though he continues to get enough red-zone carries that he's always a touchdown vulture candidate. Mattison makes much more sense for those looking to get a lower-owned player for big GPPs, or those who have multiple entries, but he just doesn't get enough touches to be reliable in cash games. Ameer Abdullah ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) is an even deeper candidate, though we can't ignore he played twice as many offensive snaps as Mattison in their Week 11 game against Denver before their Week 12 bye. Cook could be a popular captain candidate because of his high usage, though his price on DraftKings makes it a bit tough because of the salary multiplier.

The Seattle situation is a bit cloudier, with Chris Carson ($8,400 DK, $13,000 FD) leading the backfield in terms of volume this season, though backup Rashaad Penny ($5,400 DK, $10,000 FD) has been eating away at Carson's touches, enough so that they almost had a 50/50 split in Week 12 at Philadelphia, with Penny greatly outperforming Carson. The other issue for Carson is that he can't seem to hold onto the football, fumbling seven times this season (losing four), the most in the NFL among non-quarterbacks. He was also barely effective against the Eagles, rushing eight times for 26 yards while catching all four targets for 31 yards, and he was greatly overshadowed by Penny, who rushed 14 times for 129 yards and a touchdown while failing to catch his only target. Head coach Pete Carroll said last week that Penny is likely to get more work, and given his recent success, it wouldn't be that surprising to see him higher owned than Carson, especially because he's much cheaper. In fact, Penny could be a very popular captain pick on DraftKings because his lower salary allows paying up at the flex spots, something that doesn't apply to Carson. Then again, only three teams have allowed fewer fantasy points per game on DraftKings (four on FanDuel) than the Vikings. On the plus side, they allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown to running backs in two of their last three games, which were against the Chiefs and Broncos.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The Seahawks' target tree has tightened of late, with wide receivers Tyler Lockett ($9,600 DK, $11,500) and DK Metcalf ($7,600 DK, $11,500 FD) plus tight end Jacob Hollister ($4,800 DK, $8,500 FD) getting a vast majority of the passes (each column is sortable):

The introduction of Josh Gordon ($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD) has been slow, and there will probably be people who play him with the hope that he can bust loose, but the volume just hasn't been there in the early going. Locket leads the team in targets (78), receptions (63), receiving yards (831) and receiving touchdowns (eight), and he's already had three games with at least 100 yards. Meanwhile, Metcalf hasn't been early as efficient (few are), catching just 38 of 70 targets for 630 yards and five touchdowns, but much of that is because of his 13.2 aDOT and 927 air yards, the latter of which lead the team. And while Lockett has a team-high 14 red-zone targets versus Metcalf's 12, the latter has three targets inside the five-yard line, and he leads the NFL in end-zone targets. As you can see above, Hollister is a late addition to the party, but Wilson has shown interest of late and his lower salary could make him more owned than Gordon, at least on DraftKings where they are closer in price. Lockett and Metcalf are the likely captains/MVPs of the group, with the former relying on volume and the latter more about long plays and touchdowns. It also doesn't hurt that the Vikings have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on DraftKings and FanDuel, which could push people toward rostering both Lockett and Metcalf while ignoring the running back situation altogether.

Considering the deeper guys like Malik Turner ($2,000 DK, $7,000 FD), who caught his first touchdown last week on his only catch, and David Moore ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD) is really for those looking at long-shot touchdown candidates, as that's really the only way they'll be able to make a big enough impact to warrant the significantly low target risk. The same can be said about backup tight end Luke Willson ($800 DK, $5,000), who may not even play because of a hamstring injury.

The Vikings' situation is a bit tougher, as Cousins has been spreading around his passes more than Wilson, even with Adam Thielen out due to injury. Stefon Diggs ($9,800 DK, $13,500 FD) is the first place many will look after seeing the Thielen situation, as Diggs leads the team in targets (65), receptions (46), receiving yards (880), air yards (975) and aDOT (15.2), and he's had over 100 yards in five of his last eight games. The target share isn't nearly as high as you'd want, but given how deep Diggs' plays go for, it's tough to argue against him:

Bisi Johnson ($2,600 DK, $7,500 FD) feels a bit underpriced on both sites given that he's been starting opposite Diggs and has 13 targets in his past two games, and his 345 air yards are the second-most among active Vikings on Monday. Then again, he's still looking for his first game with more than 43 receiving yards; on the bright side, he's gotten a target inside the 10-yard line in four of the last five games, including each of the last three, while Diggs only has two targets inside the 10 all season.

That being said, tight end Kyle Rudolph ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD) is generally the guy when they're in close, getting three targets inside the five-yard line in the past three games, and he's scored five touchdowns in his last five. The volume won't be there for Rudolph, but when the Vikings get close to the goal line and want to throw, Cousins looks for Rudolph, whose five touchdowns trail only Thielen's six. If you're looking for deeper balls, Laquon Treadwell ($1,200 DK, $5,500 FD) has a 13.0 aDOT that is higher than all Vikings except Diggs, though he also has had multiple targets in a game once in the last eight games. If anything, you're likely to get more production out of backup tight end Irv Smith Jr. ($3,600 DK, $8,000 FD), who scored his first touchdown in Week 11, a game that was preceded by back-to-back outings with six targets. He's certainly not a high aDOT receiver, so you're pretty much rostering him with the hope of a touchdown. 

Captaining any of the Vikings' receivers is likely to be contrarian, certainly so if it's someone other than Diggs, who easily has the highest upside of the group.

KICKERS

A game with a decent total certainly keeps the kickers in the conversation, though with most slates we're playing them for floor instead of upside. Neither Dan Bailey ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) nor Jason Myers ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) has broken 16.0 fantasy points this season, with the latter actually topping out at 12.0, but their floors are certainly more reliable than a lot of players in their price range. Tournament-winning upside is there if the game ends up being low scoring, but if any of the punt wide receivers, tight ends or running backs go off, then having a kicker won't matter in large-field GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Seahawks' defense ($3,200 DK) has been very good of late, scoring 18.0 and 17.0 in the past two games, respectively. They've been doing it all, forcing eight turnovers and sacking the quarterback eight time while scoring one touchdown, though the situation Monday isn't quite as good, as Cousins has thrown only one interception in the past nine games, though he did fumble four times, losing two. His 6.4 percent sack rate is also on the lower side, so the expectations for the Seahawks should probably be tempered. Meanwhile, the Vikings ($3,400 DK) haven't scored a defensive or special teams touchdown all season, and they forced only one turnover in each of the past three games. They did have eight sacks in that span, and Wilson is actually one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league, so there's at least some theoretical sack upside. Unfortunately, WIlson has only thrown three interceptions in 352 pass attempts this season, so the turnovers will have to come from elsewhere. With almost 50 points expected to be scored, captaining either defense will be a contrarian move, even at a lower salary point.