Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Giants vs. Seahawks

Despite rejecting the fifth-year option on his contract going into the fourth season, the Giants ended up signing Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million deal this offseason – compensation that amounts to roughly four times the rate they offered to Saquon Barkley. The Giants are 1-2 now, and Barkley will likely miss this game due to a high ankle sprain. Jones will have to carry the Giants to victory over the Seahawks almost on his own, then, and that task made more challenging yet by the absence of standout left tackle Andrew Thomas. The good news for Jones is that the Seahawks pass defense has been awful in 2023, and the Seahawks have offensive line issues of their own stressing quarterback Geno Smith on the other side. The 2-1 Seahawks traveled across the country for this one, with the over/under at 47.5 and the Seahawks favored by 2.0 points.

QUARTERBACKS

Daniel Jones ($9600 DK, $15500 FD) is about as close to a must-play as a quarterback can get in a showdown slate, especially with Barkley unavailable. The Giants have a couple backups in mind at running back who can chip in, but there's a strong chance Jones leads the team in rushing while otherwise enjoying one of his better games as a passer in 2023. Jones has struggled badly in games where the Giants offense was overmatched (Dallas, San Francisco) but put up big fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 2. This matchup should be more similar to the Arizona game.

That Jones is a near must-play isn't to argue against selecting Geno Smith ($10000 DK, $15000 FD), however. Though less of a runner, Smith is a much better passer than Jones and has significantly better targets to throw to. Both of Smith's starting tackles are out and this is a long way to travel, but the Giants just don't have the corners to square up DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Though it comes somewhat at the expense of his own rushing upside, Smith's passing setups are also aided by the steady run threat posed by Kenneth Walker. The main issue with Smith in this showdown slate is that he is both expensive and probably not particularly close to the upside posed by Jones.

RUNNING BACKS

Kenneth Walker ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) is the no-doubt headliner at running back in this game since Barkley is doubtful. The Seahawks are committed to a policy of feeding Walker as part of their offensive structure, so the question is not whether Walker will get a big workload in this game but rather how much he'll do with the big workload. Some of Walker's games have been a slog – defenses know that the Seahawks intend to feed him – but Walker has done a good job of pacing himself through the plodding carries and then striking successfully when the defense leaves open the opportunity for a big play. The Giants have a mammoth defensive line, but if the Seahawks can just keep those guys from wrecking things then Walker should be in a good spot here, even if backup Zach Charbonnet ($3400 DK, $7500 FD) poaches more snaps than he did in the first three weeks. DeeJay Dallas ($200 DK, $5500 FD) also plays a couple snaps usually, though more so functions as Seattle's kick and punt returner.

Matt Breida ($6400 DK, $11000 FD) is the likely starter for the Giants with Barkley doubtful. Breida remains fast and quick, and he has a (somewhat distant, admittedly) history of producing at the NFL level, including as a starter. The Seahawks defense has generally been tough against the run, though, and particularly with Andrew Thomas out it might not be fair to expect Breida to look particularly close to his old self. Gary Brightwell ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) seems to still be the RB2 ahead of the rookie Eric Gray ($1400 DK, $5500 FD), for some reason.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

DK Metcalf ($8800 DK, $13000 FD) and Tyler Lockett ($8000 DK, $12500 FD) both seem to be set up well in this game. They're the ones who should see the most of Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins, both rookie corners. Slot man Adoree' Jackson isn't exactly threatening – few corners have worse ball skills – but there's just no doubt that it's easier for Metcalf and Lockett to beat Banks and especially Hawkins than it is for Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5000 DK, $7500 FD). Smith-Njigba won't stay down forever – players who produced like he did at Ohio State almost never do – it's just less clear whether this matchup is where he gets going. The price will likely never be much lower, for what it's worth. Jake Bobo ($200 DK, $5000 FD) and Cody Thompson are also candidates to see a few snaps, for some reason. The Seahawks tight ends are more interesting than their backup receivers – all of Noah Fant ($3600 DK, $7000 FD), Will Dissly ($400 DK, $6000 FD) and Colby Parkinson ($800 DK, $6000 FD) are starting-caliber tight ends or close to it – though Fant and Dissly are questionable. Particularly if either of them is out, Parkinson becomes very interesting.

Darius Slayton ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) and Isaiah Hodgins ($5800 DK, $10000 FD) are likely the primary boundary receivers for the Giants. The Seahawks have really struggled to defend the pass, though they have had injuries in the secondary as a potential excuse. If the Seahawks don't get their act together than one or both of Slayton and Hodgins could produce here, though Darren Waller ($7000 DK, $11500 FD) remains the favorite to emerge as the Giants' clear lead pass catcher. Wan'Dale Robinson ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) and Parris Campbell ($2800 DK, $8000 FD) are caught in a zero-sum game for slot reps, with Robinson gaining on Campbell recently. Jalin Hyatt ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) is a wildcard big-play specialist otherwise. Although Waller is the headliner at tight end Daniel Bellinger ($200 DK, $5500 FD) also plays many snaps, just mostly as a blocker.

KICKERS

Graham Gano ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) is an elite kicker or close to it, and in this game the Giants should be able to move the ball. That fact alone should make Gano viable in this matchup, but his ceiling would arguably be reached by the Giants moving the ball into the red zone regularly but struggling at that point, leading to field goals over touchdowns. Still, the interests of Gano and the Giants offensive players shouldn't be at odds with each other.

Jason Myers ($4600 DK, $9500 FD) probably isn't as good of a kicker as Gano but might be an equal or superior fantasy option after drilling five field goals and two extra points in Week 3 – good for a fantasy point total of 17.0, with two 7.0-point games preceding that one despite missing three field goals over those two games. If Myers can fix the accuracy issues that hounded him in the first two weeks then he could be one of the top fantasy kickers this year.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither of these offenses are infallible, yet neither of these defenses inspire much trust. The Seahawks ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) have an on-paper advantage as the slight favorite, though going on the road might make that more tenuous. The Seattle defense has been awful in 2023, moreover, and if they don't play fundamentally differently here then it's not clear what would go right for them. The hope in Seattle is that their struggles might be the result of injury, which they certainly have dealt with in the secondary. Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon both missed time to this point, as have safeties Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams. All four might be healthy here, so the Seahawks could conceivably look better all of a sudden.

The Giants ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) have yet to demonstrate much firepower on defense, despite what seems like a strong foundation at all levels. The Giants have a wealth of solid players and don't have obvious weak spots, yet they've yet to put together anything more than a bend-don't-break defense. Geno Smith had a brutal game in Week 1, so perhaps the Giants can find something the Rams called that day to get the better of Smith in this matchup.