Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Raiders

The Chargers didn't exactly go into the 2021 season as conference favorites, but there was a good amount of excitement around the hiring of coach Brandon Staley and the sophomore year for Justin Herbert following his brilliant 2020 rookie season. Three games in, that excitement appears well-founded, to the point that the Chargers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders for the time being. None of that is especially shocking.

What's shocking is the Raiders half of this matchup – their 3-0 record, to be specific. Propelled by a strong start from Derek Carr and their best defense in many years, the Raiders are a legitimately intimidating team at the moment. The spread (Chargers -3) acknowledges this, though expectations generally remain higher for the Chargers. The over/under rests at 51.5 in what should be a hard-fought game for whoever ends up winning.
 

QUARTERBACKS

Justin Herbert ($11200 DK, $15500 FD) is arguably the biggest star in the game, if not on the momentum of his excellent rookie year then on the highly impressive Week 3 upset over Kansas City – at Arrowhead. Herbert's strong production is buttressed by his high usage volume, with the Chargers averaging around 40 pass attempts per game to this point in 2021. With details like those assured, Herbert has a considerably high floor and ceiling both in basically any matchup, this one included. The Raiders edge rush is intimidating with Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue playing at high levels, but if the Chargers can manage that rush threat then Herbert's abilities (and those of his supporting cast) should take over from there. Improved as the Raiders defense might be, its secondary probably has the disadvantage against the Chargers route runners. If the Raiders manage to thwart Herbert in this setting we would have to take seriously the possibility that they're one of the best defenses in the league, and in the meantime that seems far fetched.

Derek Carr ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) posted strong fantasy production in each of Las Vegas' first three games, all of them against what should prove to be above-average pass defenses. Perhaps he's ascended to the category of quarterback where bad matchups don't mean much, but the Chargers present a challenging matchup all the same. Staley, of course, called the 2020 Rams defense that was so effective, and his Chargers group is showing similar signs of promise, especially against the pass. The Chargers dare opponents to run the ball by keeping two safeties over the top at most times, favoring formations designed to stop the pass first. They've allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks through three weeks, and not because their schedule was easy. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Taylor Heinicke in Week 1 weren't so impressive, but the Chargers played Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes in the subsequent two games. Efficiency is hard to come by against the Chargers pass defense, so Carr investors might hope for a big, uptempo game from Herbert on the other side, hopefully padding Carr's odds with hefty pass attempt volume.

RUNNING BACKS

Austin Ekeler ($9600 DK, $13500 FD) is by far the biggest name among backfield players in this game, heading into the contest with 20 carries and 15 targets over the last two weeks. Ekeler's per-game usage seems capped somewhat, if not by policy then as an incidental result of the Chargers' playcalling philosophy, but Ekeler is always a candidate to do big damage per usage unit, and the screen game could be one option for the Chargers to deter the Raiders' imposing edge rush. Backup Larry Rountree ($1000 DK, $6500 FD) is an affordable option who could vulture short-yardage usage from Ekeler, and in the unlikely event of a blowout victory the Chargers could give Rountree clock-killing carries. If not Rountree, then Justin Jackson ($200 DK, $7000 FD) would seem to be the distant third in this backfield for touches. Whereas the Raiders pass defense has been legitimately tough through three weeks, their run defense has been only okay.

Josh Jacobs ($7600 DK, $12000 FD) is questionable with an ankle issue, so the Raiders might again turn to Peyton Barber ($6800 DK, $10500 FD) as the lead runner while Kenyan Drake ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) remains an extremely well-paid backup. The Chargers might smartly encourage the Raiders to run with Barber, keeping the ball away from Darren Waller and company in the process, and Barber might even pile up decent chunks of yardage against the light fronts. After seeing 23 carries and five targets in Week 3, Barber should breeze past double-digit carries if Jacobs is out. Drake investors want to see the Chargers take a decisive lead as early as possible, shifting the Raiders' playcalling to more passes and removing Barber's run concepts from the viable list of play calls. Drake has at least five targets in each game this year, and six in the last two. That number can perhaps go up higher yet if the Raiders find themselves in a pass-happy game flow.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Mike Williams ($10200 DK, $14000 FD) is locked into a huge role in the current construction of the Chargers offense, drawing 31 targets in three games and catching 22 for 295 yards and four touchdowns. Perhaps defenses will adjust to Williams' new usage patterns, but to do so would probably require them to give less attention to Keenan Allen ($8800 DK, $12500 FD) and Ekeler in the passing game. It's also Williams' birthday Monday. Williams should keep it rolling, but it might be worth noting that Allen's primary coverage opponent should be rookie fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs – a good prospect but a rookie all the same. Williams' box score may have overshadowed Allen somewhat through three games, but Allen still leads the team in targets with 33. Jalen Guyton ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) remains the third receiver to this point, though with just eight targets in three games he appears to mostly function as a speed decoy. Josh Palmer ($400 DK, $6500 FD) didn't see any targets in Week 3, but he saw three targets over the first two weeks. More than Guyton or Palmer, the third-most dangerous route runner for the Chargers would be tight end Jared Cook ($4400 DK, $7500 FD), who's quietly generating a good amount of per-snap air yardage (0.98, 81st percentile). Donald Parham ($1200 DK, $6000 FD) is playing plenty of snaps and will always be an interesting red-zone matchup, but he hasn't factored into the passing game much to this point (two targets on 96 snaps).

The Raiders' top three wideouts are doing a good job so far, but Darren Waller ($9200 DK, $13000 FD) remains unchallenged as the top Raiders pass catcher. Elite safety Derwin James makes for an interesting matchup against Waller, but if the Chargers defense sticks with a two-high emphasis then that could create a bit of a funnel toward Waller's direction in the middle of the field. It's tough for receivers to beat the corner and get a crack between the safety against such coverage, but a size/speed freak like Waller down the seam is one of the better ways to attack it. The Chargers have notably given up generous numbers to tight ends through three weeks (207 yards and two touchdowns), though Travis Kelce is responsible for most of that damage.

If the Chargers do manage to slow Waller then it would certainly leave slack for the receivers, all of whom have played their parts well through three weeks. Henry Ruggs ($6400 DK, $11000 FD) is affordable relative to the per-snap air yardage he's generated to this point (2.22, 95th percentile), and he's a dangerous threat after the catch, too. Bryan Edwards ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) actually leads the Raiders wideouts in snaps, but his target usage is lower than both Ruggs and slot specialist Hunter Renfrow ($5800 DK, $9500 FD). If the Chargers continue to prioritize defending downfield and the sideline then Renfrow might have slack waiting for him in the middle of the field. Zay Jones ($1800 DK, $6500 FD) occasionally pops up as the fourth receiver. Even with Waller and the three wide receivers so prominent in the Raiders offense, Foster Moreau ($1400 DK, $7000 FD) quietly plays a lot of snaps for Las Vegas. He's more of a blocker and structural presence than a consistent usage candidate, but he should be out there quite a bit. Derek Carrier ($200 DK, $5000 FD) should play 10-to-15 snaps.

KICKER

Neither team has surrendered many fantasy points to kickers through three weeks, but that's a noisy stat category that doesn't figure to level off for many weeks. In the meantime we have reason to believe both of these defenses are capable of constricting the opponent when in scoring range, though we might sooner expect any red-zone offense in particular to sputter more often in Thursday matchups than Monday ones. In any case, Daniel Carlson ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) is one of the best kickers in the league and has double-digit fantasy points in each of the first three weeks – 41 in total. The Chargers might have kept the wrong guy when they went with Tristan Vizcaino ($4000 DK, $8500 FD), who missed a field goal in Week 2 and missed two PATs against the Chiefs, but his playing circumstances are arguably more favorable as the home favorite.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Chargers have done a good job of protecting Herbert to this point, subjecting him to just five sacks versus 126 pass attempts, though it's fair to point out the Chargers haven't faced an edge rusher duo like what the Raiders ($2800 DK) boast. Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue can be a problem even for good offensive lines, so it's important for Williams and Allen to continue winning at the line of scrimmage to provide Herbert with timely routes. If the spread is sound then the Chargers ($3200 DK) are in a better spot to provide production in theory, though Carr has done a good job protecting the ball through three weeks (two interceptions on 136 attempts). Carr has been sacked eight times, however, so Carr might be within more reach of Joey Bosa and company than Herbert is to Crosby/Ngakoue.