Job Battles: Sept. 3 Update

Here are some of the job battles to change most over the last week. Click the past writeups below for prior context on the job battles throughout the league.

Detroit RBs, Washington RBs, and Philadelphia WRs
Indianapolis RBs, San Francisco RBs, and San Francisco WRs
Kansas City RBs, Washington WRs, and Atlanta WRs
Tampa Bay RBs, New England WRs, and Las Vegas WRs
Rams TEs, Pittsburgh RBs, and Atlanta RBs
Denver WRs, Tennessee TEs, and Philadelphia RBs
Buffalo RBs, Minnesota RBs, Detroit WRs
Kansas City WRs
Rams RBs
Miami RBs, Cleveland WRs
Jacksonville WRs, Seattle TEs
August 3: KC RB update, TB RB update, GB WRs, PHI WRs, DET WR update, WAS WR update
August 10: WAS RB update, LV WR update, PIT RBs update
August 17: SF RBs and WRs update, Jets TEs update, Tampa TEs update
August 24: Rams RBs, Cincinnati WRs, New England TEs, Chargers RBs
August 31: Jacksonville RBs
 

Tampa Bay Running Back

Ronald Jones
Leonard Fournette
LeSean McCoy
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Dare Ogunbowale

Leonard Fournette signed a one-year deal with the Buccaneers on Wednesday, which doesn't throw a wrench into the gears of the Tampa Bay backfield as much as it throws it out of a plane. There seemed to be a brief emerging clarity that Ronald Jones would be the starter, LeSean McCoy the on-call veteran backup, and rookie third-round pick Ke'Shawn Vaughn the distant third backup, but Fournette's arrival mangles that hierarchy into something uniquely chaotic.

There are a lot of ways to read this backfield with Fournette involved. One could look at Tampa's pursuit of Fournette as proof that coach Bruce Arians lied when he expressed comfort with Jones as the starter, and that Fournette by default would overtake Jones as starter, leaving Jones with nothing or not much. One could also look at Fournette's seemingly cold free agent market – he went unclaimed on waivers and agreed to just a one-year, $2 million deal – and suggest that Fournette isn't an heir arrived to the Buccaneers as much as a cheap lottery ticket. There is extensive evidence that Fournette was alienated from the Jacksonville team, and his production as an NFL player qualifies as no better than replacement level. Much of Arians' criticism of Jones all along was in reference to details other than running ability – namely, pass-blocking ability – and Pro Football Focus assigned poor pass-blocking grades to Fournette in each of his three NFL seasons. Aside from draft capital, it's not clear where Fournette has an advantage over Jones. Furthermore, Arians reiterated Thursday that Jones is still his top running back.

Of course, even if one of Fournette or Jones comes out ahead of the other, McCoy lurks in the background to muck things up further. According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, McCoy will play an "integral part" in the Buccaneers offense, "particularly in the passing game and on third downs." McCoy's pass-blocking grades from PFF are much better than those of Jones or Fournette, so it could very well be Arians' plan. If McCoy handles most of the passing situations, then Jones or Fournette would have razor-thin margins of error for their fantasy investors, as both would be unusually dependent on touchdown and hot hand-related production details. A case like Jordan Howard and Matt Breida is a tough enough question, but in this scenario we might have something like two Jordan Howards for every Breida.

Less notably, if McCoy is as active as Garafolo suggests, then it's difficult to see why Dare Ogunbowale would make the roster. The former Wisconsin walk-on knows what he's doing in passing situations, but he isn't a threat with the ball. 

Buccaneers running backs logged 1,159 snaps last year, a number that will probably fall a bit in 2020 due to an improved Buccaneers defense wiping out some of the shootout scripts that otherwise occurred in the 2019 season. Tom Brady will turn the ball over less than Jameis Winston, which should also introduce a downward pressure on Tampa's play count. The Buccaneers logged 1,086 snaps from scrimmage last year, meaning they ran an average of 1.07 running back reps per snap. With the introduction of Rob Gronkowski and a new emphasis on tight end reps, we might expect that to fall more toward 1.02 running back reps per snap. If Tampa runs 1,060 snaps at 1.02 running back reps per snap, we'd have something like 1,080 running back reps to split between the Tampa running backs. 

It took Jones 422 snaps last year to draw 172 carries and 40 targets. Peyton Barber drew 154 carries and 24 targets on 347 snaps. Ogunbowale had 11 carries and 46 targets on 367 snaps. We might figure that for the 2020 per-snap usages the Buccaneers runners might see more carries and slightly fewer targets, because with fewer shootouts and turnovers the Buccaneers shouldn't need to throw 630 times like they did in 2019. If the 2019 offense granted 789 of 1,159 running back reps (68.08 percent) to its top two runners – Jones and Fournette for the purposes of a 2020 projection – then we might assume something more like 72 percent of the 2020 reps to go to Jones and Fournette. Applied to 1,080 reps, that would leave 778 between Jones and Fournette.

Based on these numbers, it will be difficult for either of Jones or Fournette to pay off at their plausible acquisition prices. Jones claimed 54.9 percent of the snaps between himself and Barber, and it's hard to see him claiming more than that relative to Fournette in 2020. There very well could be a flurry of touchdowns to be had on the ground that didn't exist in the 2019 Buccaneers offense, but for the margin between usefulness and uselessness to rest on that basis makes the investment perilous in either case.

 
Rams WR3

Van Jefferson
Josh Reynolds 

Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic reported that Van Jefferson appears to be the Rams' WR3, ahead of Josh Reynolds. Rodrigue's report checks out.

Reynolds probably has the talent to be useful as an NFL receiver, perhaps even as a starter for some team. It's looking a bit like the Rams might not be that team, however, at least as long as the quarterback is Jared Goff. Reynolds (6-3, 193) has a thin frame that results in a poor projection over the middle, and his 4.52 speed isn't enough to earn him a generous cushion underneath to stave off contact. That means Reynolds is at his best downfield and toward the sideline, where his height, acrobatic ability and above average quickness have more space to leverage. That's the part of the field where Goff is at his worst, as Brandin Cooks knows too well. As much as regression in the offensive line probably hurt Goff's chances, it's notable that his ADOT was low (7.8 yards, 28th percentile) yet his Bad Pass percentage was high (22.8 percent, 28th percentile). That means Goff threw among the most inaccurate passes despite generally attempting among the easiest pass attempts.

If Goff's downfield attempts aren't productive, then it makes sense for coach Sean McVay to try to give Goff more underneath opportunities. That could be where rookie second-round pick Van Jefferson comes in. Whereas Reynolds projects poorly on quick throws and targets over the middle, Jefferson (6-1, 200) is renown for his ability to get a quick release off the snap. Jefferson was unable to do athletic testing before the draft due to a foot issue, but he's probably faster than Reynolds, so he can twist a defense horizontally better than Reynolds can.

It's still not clear how much usage Jefferson might earn in this function. He might be a better use of routes for Goff than Reynolds is, but it still might be tough for Jefferson to draw usage when Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are established, better versions of the functions where Jefferson excels. Tyler Higbee looks imposing in the same part of the field, too. Jefferson would have an obvious route to usage in the event that Kupp or Woods miss time, however.

 
Chicago Bench Running Backs

Tarik Cohen
Ryan Nall
Artavis Pierce

David Montgomery (groin) is questionable for Week 1, and the Bears passed on Leonard Fournette despite Fournette signing a very cheap ($2 million) one-year contract with Tampa. If Montgomery is out, it looks like these three are all the Bears will have to work with. We already know who Tarik Cohen is – an almost peerless open-field threat with uncommon pass-catching ability, but a prohibitively small frame that limits him as a runner between the tackles. If there is real work to be done on the ground, then a pair of former undrafted players from Oregon State – Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce -- appear to be next in line

Nall and Pierce were teammates in 2016 and 2017, and Nall served as the lead runner of the two after previously playing tight end for the Beavers. Nall was clearly the better college player of the two. It's possible, though, that Pierce has the better trait set for NFL purposes. At 6-2, 232, Nall has a high build for a running back, which makes it tougher to channel his standout testing athleticism (4.58 40, 122-inch broad jump, 11.11 agility score) into functional football athleticism, but Latavius Murray has shown that running backs can succeed in the NFL even with a less than ideal build like this. Pierce, by contrast, has a typical running back build at 5-10, 209, and he has 4.45-type speed on that frame.

Given Nall's big frame and Pierce's good speed, we might see the two work in a Thunder and Lightning committee next to Cohen's prescribed role if Montgomery misses any time.

 
Chargers Backup Running Backs

Joshua Kelley
Justin Jackson

it appears rookie fourth-round pick Joshua Kelley has a good chance to displace Justin Jackson as the first Chargers running back off the bench behind elite starter Austin Ekeler. Ekeler's greatness occurs disproportionately through the air, though, and at 5-9, 200 he can only withstand so much punishment between the tackles. The backup to Ekeler, therefore, may well be in the hunt to lead the Chargers in rushing production in 2020.

To get to the point quicker yet, this post will lean on the writings from this prior article posted on June 8.

Jackson (6-0, 199) is skinny and lanky by running back standards, which undermines the value of his athleticism otherwise. Jackson is legitimately quick (10.88 agility score) and explosive (38.5-inch vertical), but he gets a penalty for the density adjustment and likely has average at best size-adjusted speed (4.52 40). Consider how Kelley, by contrast, is more densely built at 5-foot-11, 212 pounds with a faster 4.49-second 40-yard dash. Kelley can get from Point A to Point B faster, and he does so with more natural anchor than Jackson, which is a meaningful detail when we talk about running in traffic.
 

Neither Jackson nor Kelley can compete with Ekeler for passing functions. Beyond that, though, Jackson projects worse for pure rushing tasks than Kelley. If so, this would seem to functionally render Jackson the RB3 for the Chargers, even if there's some enduring fondness for him generally among the team.

According to The Athletic writer Daniel Popper, Kelley has been one of the Chargers' standouts in training camp, breaking big plays against the starting defense. Jackson also suffered a foot injury that kept him out of practice Sunday, which isn't good for his prospects as Kelley steadily improves his.

Jackson should be involved in the Chargers offense in 2020 and should do fairly well for himself when he does, but he's more likely to serve as the swing backup for Ekeler's pass-catching functions and Kelley's rushing functions rather than the first consideration at either function. In the event of an Ekeler injury we might see Jackson take up the lead pass-catching role in the backfield, with Kelley remaining the main runner between the tackles.