Game Spotlight: Tampa Just In Time

Sunday

San Francisco vs. Los Angeles Rams, 4:25

Open: 52.5 O/U, LAR -11
Live: 52 O/U, LAR -9.5

Cooper Kupp (knee) is out, making the projections for Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods that much stronger. The Rams offense is generally matchup-proof and while Kupp's absence might present some challenges, the presumption should be the show will proceed as scheduled, especially against a relatively vulnerable defense like San Francisco's. If we assume Jared Goff produces as he normally does, then Cooks and Woods should meet and exceed their usual standards, especially with the 49ers conceding roughly 40 pass attempts per game. When the Rams go three-wide I would guess Woods moves into the slot, though Cooks can certainly handle that task, too. Josh Reynolds should be the second outside receiver when the Rams go three-wide, which should occur something like 40 times or more. Reynold is a lanky receiver with a strong jumpball game, but his tasks should generally be limited to outside and vertical routes. I can't see him doing much over the middle, but he should present real GPP utility in DFS as long as he sees at least five targets.

I don't see the need to mention much about Todd Gurley. He's an incredibly strong play.

The 49ers backfield is more worthy of speculation, though. Matt Breida unexpectedly played through his ankle and shoulder troubles against Green Bay on Monday, and he mostly looked like himself in the process, running for 61 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. It's a shorter week this time, but he should probably be available for a similar level of function in this case. Coach Kyle Shanahan implied Alfred Morris' disappearance against Green Bay was something of an aberrational error, but Raheem Mostert only gave Shanahan reason to give him more work by totaling 87 yards on 12 carries. Ball security is a concern with Mostert, but he's a burner with wide receiver experience and he can absolutely do most of the things Breida does.

Marquise Goodwin single-handedly breathed life into what was a sinking San Francisco offense prior to last week, showing he's over the quadriceps issue that limited him early this year. Goodwin is literally an Olympic-level athlete and now that he has his skill set rounding into form, he should keep producing as long as C.J. Beathard does his part. Against a Rams defense that provokes catch-up offenses and lost Aqib Talib to injury, Goodwin has another high-ceiling scenario against the Rams. I'm not as confident in the prospects of Pierre Garcon, who has 19 targets in the last two games but may be in the midst of significant decline. He also has to play through shoulder and knee complications. George Kittle has to play through a knee tweak of his own, but his history with Beathard is far more encouraging. Trent Taylor (back) might return to the slot this week, but if not Kendrick Bourne appears in line to play as the third receiver.

Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland, 1:00

Open: 48.5 O/U, TB -3
Live: 51 O/U, TB -3.5

Baker Mayfield has flashed brilliance but struggled with consistency to this point, but this is the sort of setting that can help him put it all together. The Buccaneers defense lacks the necessary personnel to defend the pass, so firing Mike Smith is unlikely to fix their issues. With 1,835 yards (9.3 YPA) and 16 touchdowns allowed in just five games, those issues are indeed profound. If Mayfield doesn't get something going here I'll be immensely disappointed. I'm specifically expecting a huge game from Jarvis Landry, who has 31 targets in the last three games but only 114 yards and a touchdown to show for it. Landry has notably struggled a bit to hold on to the ball, and I can assure you that will change. Landry's hands are incredible and drops just can't be an enduring issue for him. David Njoku, meanwhile, might be the chalkiest player in this entire slate at any position. Mayfield is drowning him in targets with 29 over the last three weeks, and the Buccaneers have allowed 486 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends on 44 targets. He strikes me as a borderline must-play in cash games but makes plenty of sense in tournaments too despite the high ownership. I'm very interested in the battle between Antonio Callaway and Damion Ratley otherwise, as the rookie receivers both appear likely to see targets with Rashard Higgins (knee) still out. Callaway has tons of athletic talent but has badly struggled with drops this year, whereas Ratley is an underdog prospect making the most of unexpected opportunity. Callaway saw seven targets on 72 snaps last week, while Ratley saw eight on 65 snaps, catching six for 82 yards. I think they're both strong GPP plays. They both notably project as downfield threats, as both run the 40-yard dash right around the 4.40-second mark.

Carlos Hyde continues to run inefficiently, and following a particularly disappointing dud against the Chargers last week, his ownership figures to be uncommonly low for how high-scoring the environment otherwise projects. The tournament logic therefore applies sufficiently, but Hyde's struggles from scrimmage leave him touchdown-dependent. To bet on him is to specifically fade Mayfield/Landry/Njoku, I would think. Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb both deserve more work but there's not much reason to expect it. Duke saw five targets last week, but on 46 pass attempts that's not especially encouraging.

CHANGE OF PLANS: Oh my god it's happening you guys! Carlos Hyde has been traded to Jacksonville! Perhaps Nick Chubb enters a problematic game script as a road underdog, but the fact that he's significantly better than Hyde changes the calculus entirely. Plus, he's priced as a backup. He instantly becomes one of the top plays of the week, and Duke Johnson might finally be free too.

I think you could argue that Peyton Barber profiles as a cash game option on Draftkings at $3800. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, conceding 733 yards and seven touchdowns on 157 carries (4.7 YPC). This matchup is much tougher for Barber than last week's against the Falcons, but at $3800 I think the risk is more than baked in. On Fanduel ($6100) he's only a tournament consideration to me.

Jameis Winston goes against a Cleveland defense with a potent pass rush, and as always with Winston turnovers are a substantial risk, especially with Cleveland forcing as many interceptions (nine) as they've allowed passing touchdowns. But I think you generally need to defer to the facts that this Todd Monken system is highly advantageous, and the disarray of the Tampa pass defense means volume is almost always guaranteed with Winston. Maybe he struggles, but 40 pass attempts has a way of alleviating the sting. Mike Evans gets an interesting test against Denzel Ward, but the highly impressive rookie might get beat even if his coverage is tight, because Evans stands six inches higher and 50 pounds heavier. I think DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are generally fighting over the same part of the pie, but it's possible for the two to share big games in some cases since their functions don't overlap. I would think it would generally take an off day for Evans for both Godwin and Jackson to post big numbers. While Njoku is the obvious tight end chalk this week, O.J. Howard figures to be one of the most-targeted tight ends on the slates, too, as the elite prospect played through his MCL sprain to post four catches for 62 yards and a touchdown on 34 snaps against Atlanta. I'll probably stay away myself, because I think Njoku is worth the chalk and Howard has a thinner margin of error against a Browns defense that's allowed only 27 catches for 276 yards and two scores on 44 tight end targets.

Chicago vs. New England, 1:00

Open: 50 O/U, NE -2.5
Live: 48.5 O/U, NE -2.5

This is an incredibly interesting matchup, though some of the intrigue lies in the fact that there's some amount of mystery behind it. We have a quarterback (Tom Brady) whose presence almost always entails one of the higher point projections on a given slate, but he heads on the road to face one of the league's most intimidating defenses. On the other side we have Mitch Trubisky mid-ascent against a coach, Bill Belichick, whose rare insight sometimes leads to uniquely inspired and effective defensive game plans. It might therefore be difficult to identify cash-viable picks in the game, but I think there are at least a few compelling tournament considerations given the wide range of potential outcomes. It's worth keeping in mind that these teams are both uptempo, so if the defenses slip there could be lot of volume from scrimmage.

Of course, the Bears defense doesn't exactly seem likely to slip. They gave up an embarrassing box score to Brock Osweiler last week, but they folded specifically in the second half, so it's fair to wonder if the heat got to their conditioning. In any case a stronger showing should be expected in Chicago. That's not to say Brady can't post big numbers anyway, but if the Bears play a strong first half Sunday then Brady can't bank on a second-half bailout. If Brady can get something going, then a breakout effort from Josh Gordon could have something to do with it. Gordon might be my favorite GPP wideout this week against a Bears defense that's allowed nearly 10 YPT to wide receivers (1,056 on 110). Julian Edelman should be the favorite to lead the Patriots in targets every week, so he might be a more cash-viable option than Gordon, though he has less upside playing out of the slot. It remains to be seen whether this passing game has room for Chris Hogan to make a reliable fantasy impact, but we know for sure that Phillip Dorsett is out of the picture. Rob Gronkowski is a near lock for strong per-target numbers in any given game, but the target volume is far less assured. I think we've reached a point where Gronk generally isn't worth his price unless the Patriots start getting him involved more often. He notably has just one red-zone target on the year. The Bears have allowed four tight end touchdowns in five games, meanwhile.

It will be interesting to see whether James White gets involved early in the passing game as a means to deter blitzing from the Bears and otherwise provide Brady with an ejection seat against a pass rush that might not even need to blitz much to generate pressure. White is almost in his own category for the unique ways New England deploys him as a pass catcher, but it's worth noting the Bears have allowed only 17 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown to running backs on 27 targets. It generally seems like the Bears are a good bet to push usage toward the air, where they've been less stingy than against the run. If that happens it would be bad news for Sony Michel, whose passing game usage is still lacking as he heads against a Bears defense that's allowed only 363 yards and zero touchdowns to running backs on 98 carries.

The Bears backfield should put forth some significant amount of production against a Patriots defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per target to running backs. The question of how that splits up between Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen is less clear. Howard is trending downward and Cohen is trending upward at Howard's expense, but we know Howard is a good NFL runner and capable of big box scores on the ground. To bet on Howard would probably be to fade Brady, on the other hand, because the Bears will have to abandon the run if they fall behind. Framed that way, it's maybe not as easy to get optimistic about Howard. It would point toward optimism for Cohen, in fact, who might have a promotion in store regardless since his consecutive big games coincided with Trubisky's breakout efforts. I think both Bears backs are strong tournament plays, in any case.

The Bears passing game might be the most confusing variable in this contest. Is the Trubisky of the last two weeks the real deal? Is he the quarterback with 670 yards (11.8 YPA), nine touchdowns, and one interception over the last two weeks, or is he the quarterback who threw for 591 yards (5.7 YPA), two touchdowns, and three interceptions in the three games prior? The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, which makes it only more difficult to anticipate the extent to which correction might occur in the upcoming weeks.

He in any case takes on a Patriots pass defense that's shown general competence, allowing 15 touchdowns to eight interceptions in six games while otherwise limiting quarterbacks to a completion percentage of 63.4 at 7.1 YPA. They've allowed a 61.9 percent catch rate to receivers at 7.4 YPT, allowing nine touchdowns, but it's unclear how much Allen Robinson can contribute if he plays as a game-time decision with a groin ailment. If Robinson is out or limited, it would mean a promotion for rookie second-round pick Anthony Miller, because Taylor Gabriel's role appears just about maxed out as it is. Gabriel projects nicely in an offense where he should mostly avoid Stephon Gilmore, while Miller would be well worth GPP consideration if Robinson is out. Trey Burton could also emerge the primary beneficiary if Robinson sits, and the Bears might want to consider more targets for the tight end regardless since his YPT sits at 9.0 through five games. The Patriots have conceded an average of eight tight end targets per game, allowing a 58.3 percent catch rate at 6.9 YPT to go with four touchdowns.