This article is part of our Game Spotlight series.
Sunday
Rams vs. Green Bay, 4:25
Open: 57 O/U, LAR -8
Live: 56.5 O/U, LAR -9
When's the last time you saw Aaron Rodgers open as an eight-point underdog? These Rams are something else, but how futile would it make the other 31 teams feel if the best quarterback was at a loss against what's quickly becoming one of the most intimidating teams of distant memory?
It helps the Packers a bit that Cooper Kupp (knee) is out, which implies a narrower tree on the Rams offense given that Josh Reynolds saw just one target on 51 snaps against the 49ers. I think Reynolds has real skill as an outside receiver, but Sean McVay is consistently fixated on channeling as much usage as possible through his best players, and last week at least it seems like McVay decided that Reynolds couldn't threaten the threshold of warranting a place in the game plan. He's still worth GPP consideration or a desperation start in some deeper redraft leagues, but his usage last week was not promising. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, on the other hand, are both golden by any conventional measure. To say either player has a bad game is to either say Reynolds has a strong one or Jared Goff has a bad one, and neither of those conditions seem especially likely. I like Cooks more than Woods because he's better generally, but also because I think he matches up better against the Packers corners. Jaire Alexander and Kevin
Sunday
Rams vs. Green Bay, 4:25
Open: 57 O/U, LAR -8
Live: 56.5 O/U, LAR -9
When's the last time you saw Aaron Rodgers open as an eight-point underdog? These Rams are something else, but how futile would it make the other 31 teams feel if the best quarterback was at a loss against what's quickly becoming one of the most intimidating teams of distant memory?
It helps the Packers a bit that Cooper Kupp (knee) is out, which implies a narrower tree on the Rams offense given that Josh Reynolds saw just one target on 51 snaps against the 49ers. I think Reynolds has real skill as an outside receiver, but Sean McVay is consistently fixated on channeling as much usage as possible through his best players, and last week at least it seems like McVay decided that Reynolds couldn't threaten the threshold of warranting a place in the game plan. He's still worth GPP consideration or a desperation start in some deeper redraft leagues, but his usage last week was not promising. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, on the other hand, are both golden by any conventional measure. To say either player has a bad game is to either say Reynolds has a strong one or Jared Goff has a bad one, and neither of those conditions seem especially likely. I like Cooks more than Woods because he's better generally, but also because I think he matches up better against the Packers corners. Jaire Alexander and Kevin King can both burn, but I would guess Alexander sees Woods more than anyone, and if King is against Cooks I think King's 6-foot-3 build would prove a burden against the exceptionally quick Cooks. Tyler Higbee is just a blocker for the most part, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him or Gerald Everett make some sort of appearance with Kupp out.
Todd Gurley is an elite option because he's playing – the defense doesn't matter. But the Packers are also allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs.
The Packers backfield could feature a GPP-viable option against a Rams defense allowing an average of 4.7 yards per carry to running backs, but it's a very high-risk consideration given that the Rams are conceding only 19 carries per game to running backs, and we have no idea what Mike McCarthy plans to do with his workload split. That the Rams are otherwise allowing 4.4 yards per target to opposing running backs is not encouraging. If it's anyone, I'd think it's Aaron Jones, but Mike might have different plans.
The Green Bay passing game, by contrast, could have a variety of productive options. Davante Adams seems nearly automatic these days, and it would be shocking if he saw fewer than 10 targets in this one. Geronimo Allison comes back from his concussion and hamstring issues, which knocks Equanimeous St. Brown out of whatever distant consideration he might otherwise merit. Whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling stays viable might depend on the status of Randall Cobb (hamstring), who's questionable for Sunday. If Cobb is out, I think it leaves MVS and Allison both as legitimate tournament considerations. It would be weird to see MVS play the slot if Cobb is out, because Rams slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, who is very good, stands around 5-foot-7, 170 pounds while MVS is 6-foot-4, 206 pounds. Jimmy Graham is in any case very interesting in a setting where Green Bay might abandon the run almost immediately. The Rams have allowed 8.6 yards per target to tight ends. I think he has to be one of the ideal GPP plays this week and I don't see the argument against him in cash games either.
Cincinnati vs. Tampa Bay, 1:00
Open: 53.5 O/U, CIN -6
Live: 54.5 O/U, CIN -3.5
Andy Dalton flopped against a Chiefs defense that by any measure has to be considered much better than Tampa Bay's. While Dalton might be a substandard quarterback, he should be good enough to put forth a strong showing against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 18 passing touchdowns versus one interception. I would expect Dalton to help them get to two this week, but anything less than 250 yards and two touchdowns otherwise would stun me.
Even if Dalton has another ugly game, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd should both provide useful box scores. Green is on his way to a renaissance season and seems fully locked in with at least eight targets in every game, and double-digits in three straight. He generally sees his usage decline a bit at home, but the pressure posed by the Tampa offense figures to minimize the risk of Cincinnati establishing a comfortable lead. It's just very difficult to imagine a way the Bengals could overlook Green in this game, and it's even more difficult to imagine Green struggling against a secondary allowing 8.8 yards per target to receivers at a 75.8 percent catch rate. Boyd struggled last week, constrained by Dalton's issues, but I just cannot imagine that risk in this setting. If Boyd lays another dud I'll be devastated. C.J. Uzomah is still on the list of viable tournament tight ends in DFS, in my opinion, against a Buccaneers defense allowing 10.8 yards per target to tight ends.
Joe Mixon might find the sledding tough on the ground against a Tampa defense that allowed 3.6 yards per carry, but Tampa's poor pass defense figures to let Mixon and Cincinnati offense into scoring range multiple times, and the run defense is set to decline a bit with linebacker Kwon Alexander out. I can see the argument for players like Kareem Hunt and James Conner over Mixon as a cash game play, but I think Mixon is totally worthwhile in that context too against a Buccaneers defense that's allowed 7.9 yards per target to running backs.
Now with his injury designation removed, Peyton Barber might be worth consideration as a GPP pick against a Bengals defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per target to running backs. Barber might not be especially good, but some substantial amount of money has hammered the spread down 2.5 points since the line opened. You could rationalize some appeal for Ronald Jones if you wanted to wager on Barber's demise, but it seems off to me.
Jameis Winston figures to be one of the most popular quarterbacks for cash games and tournaments both even following a Cleveland matchup where he showed some of his more annoying tendencies. The Bengals don't rush the passer like the Browns, though, and their secondary might be worse too. They're allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and Winston's own poor pass defense almost necessarily sets him up for high usage. Mike Evans is only a GPP consideration to me due to the presence of William Jackson, but if Evans can beat Marshon Lattimore then he's capable of beating Jackson, too. Chris Godwin should thrive if he avoids Jackson, meanwhile, though DeSean Jackson is trending downward due to Winston's tendency to move the chains instead of going deep. Adam Humphries continues to inexplicably see a prominent role and might be worth a thought in DraftKings' PPR scoring. OJ Howard has one of the top tight end projections of the week against the Bengals, who've pushed the second-most targets per game to tight ends so far. Howard is monstrously talented and has to be an anticipated start with the Bengals conceding 8.0 yards per target to tight ends.
Kansas City vs. Denver, 1:00
Open: 55.5 O/U, KC -8.5
Live: 53.5 O/U, KC -9.5
The Broncos managed to limit Pat Mahomes to a box score of 28-of-45 for 304 yards, one touchdown, and one rushing touchdown back in Week 6, but that was in Denver. Mahomes also didn't have Sammy Watkins for much of that game. Absent those two conditions, things can seemingly only get worse for Denver in this context. They had their one chance to stop Mahomes and they missed.
Travis Kelce saw 12 targets in that game, snagging seven for 78 yards and a touchdown. Kelce only scored in two of seven games so far, but with an average of 9.4 yards per target he still has monstrous upside here, especially if Chris Harris can impede Tyreek Hill at all. Hill's 13 targets in the last game only went for 54 yards on nine catches, which I doubt Denver can repeat. Watkins is capable of blowing up without any notice, but you'll unfortunately have to guess without any notice. Perhaps his presence in this rematch will be something the Broncos poorly account for after missing him the last time around.
Kareem Hunt is as hot as almost any player in the league at the moment, as he has at least one touchdown in six straight games and has especially encouraged his owners by earning six targets in each of the last two weeks. Hunt's lack of pass-catching activity was a major worry in the first five weeks, but perhaps something has changed for the better. Hunt lit up the Broncos for 121 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries the last time around, adding three catches for 54 yards on four targets. The Broncos are allowing 5.5 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per target to running backs. A light can only turn so green.
The antics and consequent release of Chad Kelly have probably bought Case Keenum some leash, but Keenum and the Broncos offense are sinking all the same. They got the big win over a botched Arizona team the Thursday of last week, but Keenum wasn't asked to do much and still managed to throw another interception on his 21 attempts, giving him nine interceptions in seven games. That leaves him on pace for 21 interceptions over 16 starts. The Chiefs defense is looking much better these days, too, following last week's ownage of Andy Dalton. The Chiefs are still allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but that's largely buoyed by three rushing touchdowns. They've otherwise allowed 11 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. Keenum should get some pass attempt volume due to the Mahomes factor, but turnovers remain a substantial risk for Keenum and touchdowns a cause for flamboyant celebration. He just hasn't been a competitive quarterback this year.
Even so, Emmanuel Sanders is killing it in 2018, and Keenum's dependence on his slot target is not subject to his overall functionality. His current YPT of 9.9 will probably drop if Keenum doesn't improve, but with 61 targets in seven games, who cares? Sanders only posted five catches for 45 yards on seven targets the last time around, but you generally have to chase targets instead of calculating based on one-game samples. Demaryius Thomas I have no idea what to do with. He's still effective, catching 67.4 percent of his targets for 7.6 yards per target, but he hasn't exceeded 50 snaps or six targets in three weeks, and the last time against Kansas City he finished with four catches for 24 yards on seven targets. I don't think I have enough faith in Keenum to feel any solid optimism for Thomas. He strikes me as a contrarian play that entails a leap of faith. All the more power to those who can muster it. Courtland Sutton is the primary threat to Thomas' prominence, but with a season high of six targets and four games with fewer than that, I really can't recommend him.
On the other hand, I'm feeling distinct optimism for both of Denver's notable running backs as GPP considerations. No, not Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, I'm talking about Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker! Freeman is out with his ankle issue, leaving the explosive Lindsay and Booker, an inadequate pure runner but a standout pass-catching threat at running back. The Broncos will likely fall behind in this game, yes, but I think three quarters of almost hurry-up offense should still get Lindsay to 12 or more carries, and I like the chances of both him and Booker seeing five or more targets. Keenum will need to throw a lot, but he just can't really throw downfield without the playaction. Otherwise, he often needs to check down, usually in the form of Sanders. The Chiefs pushed an average of eight targets per game toward running backs, at 7.5 yards per target. Again, it's GPP only, but I'll probably have a couple shares of both Denver running backs in that context.
