FanDuel NFL: Week 11 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

This week offers one of the few remaining large slates as we have Thanksgiving next week and then Saturday games shortly thereafter. With most options still on the table, this week presents a good bit of value, in part thanks to some softer pricing from FanDuel. In particular, the middle tiers of running back stand out as presenting value. That opens up some salary to be more creative with salary allocation, and there are good pay-up options at the remaining three positions.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• The highest implied team totals include Miami, Detroit, San Francisco, Houston and Dallas.
• The highest game totals include Arizona at Houston, Chicago at Detroit, Las Vegas at Miami and Seattle at Los Angeles Rams.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Devin Singletary vs. ARI ($6,500)

Dameon Pierce (ankle) is out, lining up Singletary for another game with significant workload. Singletary broke out last week against the Bengals and has a soft matchup this week — the Cardinals allow the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The mid-tier of running backs is the best place to hunt this week, and Singletary stands out in his price range.

Deebo Samuel vs. TB ($7,100)

There's always some risk that a 49ers star is left out when each of Brandon Aiyuk ($7,800), George Kittle ($7,000) and Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) are healthy. However, the Bucs are a pass-funnel defense, which should mean that there are plenty of targets to go around. Aiyuk is the top target in the offense and is safer, but Samuel is a good option for some savings and is a threat to take any catch to the end zone. 

Other Value Options

QB Brock Purdy vs. TB ($7,500)
QB Justin Fields at DET ($7,400)
QB Geno Smith at LAR ($6,900)
RB Brian Robinson vs. NYG ($7,200)
RB Breece Hall at BUF ($7,100)
RB Aaron Jones vs. LAC ($7,000)
RB James Conner at HOU ($6,800)
RB Rachaad White at SF ($6,600)
WR Christian Kirk vs. TEN ($6,900)
WR DJ Moore at DET ($6,800)
WR Marquise Brown at HOU ($6,600)
WR Brandin Cooks at CAR ($5,900)
WR Jalen Guyton at GB ($5,600)
TE Luke Musgrave vs. LAC ($5,200)
TE Tyler Conklin at BUF ($4,800)

Stacks to Consider

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Detroit isn't as good for game stacks as it was last season, but in their last six games, the Lions have been in games that topped 50 points on three times. This season, that number is four times in nine games. The Lions' offense also sets up in a relatively predictable way. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,900) has a dominant 30 percent target-per-route-run rate and has an ultra-efficient 2.86 yards per route run. That's a tremendous skills profile that still doesn't seem to get the respect it deserves. St. Brown is hurt a bit by the FD scoring (0.5 PPR), but he still averages the fourth-most fantasy points per game among pass catchers on the main slate. The other top pass-catching option is Sam LaPorta ($6,700). He's run 50 fewer routes than St. Brown, but he has a target-per-route-run rate of 27.1 percent. Overall, he's the second-highest-scoring tight end on the main slate. The two haven't spiked in the same week, so rostering both doesn't work on paper. 

Both of the running backs are in play as well. Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,400) can't be ignored given that he's topped 23 FD points in three consecutive games. David Montgomery ($7,700) has played well this season, but he's topped that mark only once in six full games this season.

The intrigue of the Chicago side depends on one's willingness to believe Justin Fields ($7,400) immediately returns to form. He had just gotten on track prior to his injury, ripping off performances of 28.9 and 32.98 FD points. Jared Goff's ($7,900) closest performance is 27.44 points. Moore doesn't have the same target volume as St.  Brown, but he's averaged 17.7 half PPR points in six games with Fields this season. Cole Kmet ($5,600) is the other viable pass catcher on the team, as he has the highest target-per-route-run rate on the team — even including Moore. The backfield is more difficult to discern with Khalil Herbert ($6,000) likely back in the mix. I'd steer clear.

Arizona Cardinals [LOGO at Houston Texans

It would have been difficult to imagine this game being the potential breaking point of a slate a few weeks ago, but C.J. Stroud ($8,000) has also proven to fuel shootouts. Similar to the Lions above, four of the Texans' nine games this season have topped 50 points. The team's last two games went for 76 and 57 points.

Stroud has elevated both Nico Collins ($7,200) and Tank Dell ($7000) and each has delivered spike weeks at various points. Collins is the better play on paper, but Dell has emerged in the last two weeks. The danger of stacking Houston is that different players have stepped up at different points, but Noah Brown ($6,100) looks likely to miss the game with a knee injury. That would help narrow the target distribution. Dalton Schultz ($6,800) appears to have a consistent role looking at his game log, but he's been reliant upon touchdowns to score his points (four TDs in his last six games).

The return of Kyler Murray ($7,600) gives this game a ceiling because fantasy points can reliably be counted on to come from both teams. It's only a one-game sample, but Michael Wilson ($5,400) and Trey McBride ($5,900) were the biggest winners of Murray's return. Marquise Brown ($6,600) was the favorite target of Murray in the past, so his four targets were likely a fluke last week.  

James Conner ($6,800) is a reasonable price for his projected volume.

Miami Dolphins

Unlike the first two games, Miami isn't likely to be pushed on the scoreboard by the opposition. However, we know they're explosive enough to pile up points in bunches. They've topped 30 points in five of nine games this season, four of which came at home. The Raiders have good vibes under interim coach Antonio Peirce, but that won't be enough to slow Tua Tagovailoa ($8,400), Tyreek Hill ($9,800) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,100). We know what to expect from Hill, but Waddle has talked all week about feeling fully healthy after the team's bye week. He's a nice value. 

Watch for last-minute news before rostering either of De'Von Achane ($8,000) or Raheem Mostert ($7,800).

High Priced Heroes

Austin Ekeler at GB ($8,800) 

After a slow start in his return from injury, Ekeler has found his form and totaled 19.5-20 FD points in each of his last three games. That's a decent return on his price, but he's really the choice when looking at the rest of the running backs. Christian McCaffrey faces one of the toughest run defenses in the league while both the Detroit and Miami backfields could be split. The only other high-priced back I'd really want to play is Travis Etienne ($8,300), otherwise, I'll pay down for the values listed above.  

CeeDee Lamb at CAR ($9,200)

Lamb has been on a tear in recent weeks and there's no reason to expect that to stop in Week 11. The Cowboys have finally centered their offense on the passing attack, and Lamb has a minimum of 14 targets in the last three weeks as a result. Two of those contests were blowout wins, so even if Dallas handles Carolina as projected, Lamb has a clear path to production.

Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Aaron Jones vs. LAC ($7,000) 

Jones was highlighted as a value play last week and ended up delivering a disappointing 7.4 FD points. That's the bad news. The good news is that he still saw 17 touches and has 41 total touches combined across his last two games. That type of volume should bode well for Jones in a matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed running backs to score an average 26.1 FD points the last three weeks and 22.4 on the season.

Honorable Mention - Breece Hall at BUF  ($7,100)