Exploiting the Matchups: Week 17 Start/Sit

2018 was one of the better cumulative fantasy football seasons I've ever had, but I came up empty in the end. Zero titles (unless you count the league I drafted for my girlfriend's father and mostly managed all year).

Zero bragging rights.

I entered the playoffs as a first or second seed with a bye in five leagues and survived four of them laying eggs in the semifinals to make three title games, only to see my opponents go off for the weekly high scores while I was second in each league.

Heck, in my favorite home league, my brother-in-law beat me with the highest score we've had in the league in about five years. I played against Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey and Zach Ertz in two of them and CMC in all three.

My one winnable matchup was versus fellow RotoWire writer and all-around good guy Jim Coventry, and I lost because I didn't play Watson. Of course, I was never benching Patrick Mahomes, so I can't be upset about it. And although I should have been upset about the match with Jim when another owner who lost in the semis claimed Jamaal Williams ahead of me "because he's 23" and it's a keeper league so I don't restrict transactions for ousted teams, I'm choosing not to be. Even though I would have started him over Leonard Fournette and won.

I refuse to be mad because I made way more right choices than wrong ones this year and largely enjoyed every minute of the season. Even while several of my best teams also had the most points scored against them (no bigger frustration in fantasy to me), I relished this year. And since I mostly play in keeper formats, I'm leaving this season hopeful. I turned around a struggling core in my favorite league in part because I crushed the draft by adding Mahomes, Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack to a roster that came in with Davante Adams and Joe Mixon. It's like a mini-dynasty format because we keep four, so next year I can enter with Mixon, Chubb, Adams and Mahomes. So this year, I'll ring in the new year by toasting to an even better 2019 season that's already set up nicely. No need to dwell on the past.

For those of us with a future still to be determined in 2018, the advice remains the same as it has in recent playoff weeks -- except it's amplified in Week 17.

The player pool changes this week every year. Some stars will sit, depending on the stakes of their game. Some young guys will get an audition for next year. Motivations will run the gamut.

In the end, the fantasy teams that tend to win this week do so by getting high volume from the most motivated players/teams. Try to weigh the "why" behind what could be driving an individual player and his opposing defense and make decisions from there. When in doubt, go with the surest source of touches.

Now, before we get to it, like last year's Week 17 intro, let's quickly run through some predictions for the playoff feast we're about to be served:

1. The Titans didn't get four quarters from Marcus Mariota in their first meeting with the Colts and were blown out in part because of that. This time they do, and it makes all the difference as they outlast Andrew Luck and Co. at home. The high doesn't last long though as J.J. Watt ensures they don't get any further.

2. In a battle of two of the best rushing offenses, Russell Wilson is predictably the X-factor that changes everything. Hopeful Cowboys fans are despondent when he gets the better of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch repeatedly to steal a road W.

3. A rematch 3,000 miles away from the first meeting sees the Chargers defense able to make Lamar Jackson finally look like the raw rookie he is. Bottling up the Ravens' ground game while getting their own going helps Philip Rivers move closer to the Lombardi trophy than he's been in years.

4. Nick Foles' magic, meet "The Monsters of the Midway." Philadelphia, meet the end to an awesome ride. Foles will play elsewhere next year while the Bears head to LA because Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks simply won't be denied.

5. With no rust on Deshaun Watson's tires this time, a visit to Foxborough goes much differently for the Texans than it did in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady are starting to feel their age just enough to be on the short end of a contest filled with yards.

6. Sean McVay makes some smart adjustments. But so does Vic Fangio. Strength on strength is the story in Round 2 of Rams vs. Bears, but the result is the same even away from the Chicago cold. Todd Gurley can't get going, and Jared Goff doesn't have the heroics in him.

7. No one has been able to run on the Saints all year, but they also haven't played the No. 1 rushing offense. Wilson makes just enough plays, while Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny gash the usually stout Saints front seven, and Drew Brees' auxiliary weapons fail him when Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas can't fully dominate.

8. With both squads healthier than in their Thursday night classic, the Mahomes vs. Rivers rematch becomes the highest-scoring affair of the playoffs. The league's MVP comes out on top, however, as the Chargers simply can't solve Tyreek Hill's speed or the double-headed, dual-threat backfield of Spencer Ware and Damien Williams.

9. Two things have changed significantly since the Bears and Seahawks met on Soldier Field in Week 2: (1) Seattle has fully committed to a powerful ground game that is the team's heartbeat, and (2) Mitchell Trubisky is battle-tested and more poised in a complicated offense he looked noticeably uncomfortable piloting earlier this season. The first change will matter more. This is playoff football, and when it's will against will, the team that runs it better has an edge, particularly when the steely calm and preternatural playmaking ability of Wilson is the ultimate chess piece.

10. Mahomes vs. Watson is going to become a playoff trend, but this first edition might stand as the most memorable given the stakes and their obscenely early arrival at this stage. Although Mahomes is the better overall talent right now, he can't switch sides and stop Watson himself when he goes full Clemson vs. Alabama mode and puts on a cape. In a star-studded AFC title game, Watson soars above everyone else by letting his instincts take over. His 100-plus yards on the ground prove the difference for a Houston offense leaking playmakers like a sinking ship.

11. The Seahawks are back and refuse to hand this one away. Wilson exacts his Super Bowl demons by shredding a Texans defense prepared for a ground-heavy attack. Seattle wins on third downs and takes the turnover battle while Watson makes a few critical errors when trying to be the hero again.

12. Wilson gets the Super Bowl MVP he was one bad throw away from in Super Bowl XLIX. Pete Carroll and too much whiskey and chip dip make me, a huge Cheesehead, nauseous. Very, very nauseous.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier – or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Nick Foles, PHI at WAS
Foles has started four games this season. In two, he's logged zero touchdowns and an interception in each. In the other two, he's exploded for a combined 805 yards and five touchdowns, including a crazy 471 and four last Sunday that pretty much single-handedly kept the Eagles' playoff hopes alive. With a modest stable of running backs, Philadelphia probably will keep pinning its playoff hopes to Foles' right arm. Against a Redskins defense that allowed Eli Manning to post 9.0 YPA and throw for three touchdowns just three weeks ago, Foles should continue lighting up the box score.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. ATL
After seeing a four-game streak with two touchdown passes stopped in a visit to Baltimore, Winston got back on track last week by racking up 336 yards in a road trip to a very good Dallas defense with a division title on the line. He only managed one touchdown, but a good way to improve on that is hosting a Falcons defense he torched for 395 yards and four touchdowns earlier this year. Needing to enter the offseason on a positive note, count on Winston being laser-focused against a familiar opponent.

Derek Carr, OAK at KC
If your regular starter is resting or you find yourself in a two-quarterback or superflex finale, Carr could be that plug-and-play option that makes all the difference. Prior to the Raiders doing the unthinkable last week and winning with their ground game and defense, Carr had thrown for at least 263 yards and a score in three straight, including a precise 285 and three versus the Chiefs. Since KC won't allow the Raiders to rely on their defense and rushing attack to get this one done, Carr is poised to take advantage of a defense that's dead-last in passing yards allowed per game and cash in on that fantasy-friendly garbage time.

Sam Darnold, NYJ at NE
Coming off the best two performances of his young career, Darnold will square off with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for the first time in the New England cold. Rookies typically don't fare well in that situation, but Darnold is playing with great confidence right now and taking what defenses give him instead of forcing throws the way he did at times earlier in the year, which led to a league-high 15 interceptions (tied with Ben Roethlisberger). With Robby Anderson and fellow rookie Chris Herndon serving as reliable, athletic playmakers, Darnold will look to build off his combined 594 yards and five touchdowns the past two weeks.

RB

C.J. Anderson, LAR vs. SF
Why put further stress on Todd Gurley's knee when Anderson is running like it's the 2015 playoffs again? As a bell cow in a game the Rams need to stay ahead of the Bears for a first round bye in the NFC, Anderson should serve a similar role in Week 17, with last week's explosion as unequivocal evidence that we can trust the veteran.

Doug Martin & Jalen Richard, OAK at KC
As flex options come this week, one could do much worse than this pair of Oakland tailbacks. Martin has seen a steady diet of touches since Marshawn Lynch went on injured reserve in October, and he's coming off his first game rushing for over 100 yards with a score since October of 2015. With three other contests finding the end zone in his past five, the rejuvenated veteran is closing out his first year as a Raider in strong fashion. Richard, meanwhile, also found paydirt last week and has tallied at least 75 scrimmage yards or a score in four of the last six games, including a season-high 126 yards against the Chiefs. Considering Kansas City has allowed more than 170.0 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on average to opposing running backs, this duo can be counted on to continue its recently productive ways.

Royce Freeman, DEN vs. LAC
It's time to free Freeman. With Phillip Lindsay (wrist) headed for surgery, the other rookie rusher for Denver -- the one drafted in the third round -- will finally get his chance to showcase why he garnered significant preseason hype. Freeman has been fine with his limited opportunities (4.1 YPC, five touchdowns on 113 attempts), but in part because of an ankle injury, he ceded the lead back workload to Lindsay by Week 8 and has done little since. His last game with more than 50 yards came back in Week 4, and he hasn't scored since Week 11, when he coincidentally cashed in a short score the last time he faced the Chargers. Given how the undersized Los Angeles front seven struggled to contain the similarly beefy Gus Edwards last week (14 carries, 92 yards), Freeman is set up nicely to end a disappointing rookie campaign with a memorable last impression.

Brian Hill, ATL at TB
With 115 yards on just eight carries last week, including three runs of at least 20 yards, Hill became the 14th running back from the vaunted 2017 draft class to register a 100-yard rushing effort. The Wyoming product will now get a chance to enter the 2019 offseason with a streak of century-mark games, as he looks poised to take over the Falcons backfield for at least one week. Devonta Freeman (groin) and Ito Smith (knee) are already on IR, and now Tevin Coleman is suffering from a groin injury that forced him to the sidelines last Sunday. A big-bodied, 219-pound back who gets what's blocked, Hill should benefit from facing a Buccaneers defense that's tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tailbacks (21).

Zach Zenner, DET at GB
This is not the first time Zenner has come out of nowhere in December to be a fantasy playoff factor. The fourth-year tailback piled up 202 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in the final two weeks of 2016 – including a 110-yard effort against the Packers in Week 17 that year – and now he enters this year's finale having registered at least 67 scrimmage yards or a score in three straight. He's yet to receive more than 13 touches in a game, but when facing a Green Bay defense that's allowed at least 74 scrimmage yards or a touchdown to a running back in every game since they last played Detroit in Week 5 and LeGarrette Blount fell into the end zone twice, any touches will be valuable. In that 11-game span, the Packers gave up 14 total scores to opposing ball carriers.

WR

Dede Westbrook, JAX at HOU
Whether it's good or bad for Westbrook remains to be seen, but the second-year wideout will get Blake Bortles back under center for the season finale. One thing that is for sure, however, is how ripe the opportunity is to face a Houston secondary that's been bleeding production to wide receivers. In their past five outings, the Texans have surrendered 1,095 yards and seven touchdowns to wideouts, with a leading receiver reaching at least 96 yards in all five. Westbrook, who has at least 54 scrimmage yards or a score in three straight and a touchdown in three of the past five games, is that lead guy for the Jags.

Jordy Nelson, OAK at KC
Follow the volume. With Jared Cook tending to sore ribs, Derek Carr only has so many reliable options left to target these days. Nelson has hauled in 29 of 36 looks in the past four games, with at least six catches in each and 75-plus yards in three of those, including a 10-grab, 97-yard outing when Kansas City visited the Bay area just four weeks ago. Given how the Chiefs light up the scoreboard, count on Nelson's targets remaining high and his production remaining steady.

Mohamed Sanu & Calvin Ridley, ATL at TB
Julio Jones is dealing with a hip issue, and it's showed in recent weeks with his snap counts and targets on the lower side. He saw only five targets last Sunday, one week after playing only 32 snaps against the Cardinals. While Jones has still managed to produce (he is superhuman, after all), his limited health creates a bigger opportunity for his capable wingmen in Sanu and Ridley, each of whom delivered in a big way last week (110 scrimmage yards and a TD for the former, 90 and a TD for the latter). With the backfield badly banged up for Atlanta and a visit to Tampa Bay's weak secondary on tap, expect this pair to continue playing a pivotal role for the Falcons' offense.
Jake Kumerow, GB vs. DET
Sure, this is more of a gut call than anything. When all else is equal, Kumerow is fifth on Green Bay's receiver depth chart. But with Equanimeous St. Brown likely out with a concussion, he gets a bump up the pecking order. And given that Davante Adams has to face both a sore knee and sticky coverage from Darius Slay (who held Stefon Diggs to 10 yards last week), other wideouts will need to step up for the Packers. Randall Cobb is back from concussion protocol, but the veteran is little more than a checkdown option at this point in his career. He has not topped 43 yards in a game since Week 1. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling also fairly quiet in recent weeks (save for last Sunday when everyone got in the action), that leaves Kumerow and his fresh legs to deliver an encore to last week's pleasant surprise line of 3/3/68/1. The Lions secondary is awfully thin beyond Slay, and when Aaron Rodgers seeks to end this inglorious campaign with an emphatic statement, he could look to leverage the 6-foot-4 Kumerow, upon whom he heaped praise in the preseason before a shoulder injury wiped out most of his regular season.

TE

Chris Herndon, NYJ at NE
The Patriots have been middle-of-the-pack defending the tight end position, but Herndon's role for the Jets has grown too good to ignore. He's seen at least six targets in three out of the last five contests, including a season-high eight in the last meeting with New England, in which he also tallied a season-high seven catches. He looked fantastic in last week's shootout with the Packers (7/6/82/1 line) and is poised to build on that chemistry with fellow rookie Sam Darnold going into the offseason for a passing attack that could see Herndon develop into the No. 2 target behind Robby Anderson for the foreseeable future.

Vance McDonald, PIT vs. CIN
With JuJu Smith-Schuster forming the best receiving duo in football with Antonio Brown this year, McDonald has not realized his athletic potential as a pass catcher. The Steelers simply haven't needed him to, so despite Ben Roethlisberger leading the league in passing yards, McDonald's production has been spotty at best. He should close the regular season on a high note, however, against a Bengals team tied for the league lead in touchdowns allowed to tight ends (10). He failed to find the end zone in their first meeting back in October, but the 68 yards he registered in that contest represent his second-best yardage output of the season. So, at a minimum the floor should be solid in this must-win contest.

DOWNGRADE

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. CHI
Cousins has played awfully efficiently the past couple weeks in must-win situations to keep Minnesota in the playoff hunt, but he's done it in dome stadiums against the Dolphins and Lions defenses. And his numbers were largely aided last week by a "Hail Mary" touchdown. He gets the dome environment this Sunday, but little else gives one cause to be optimistic. Cousins has rarely displayed much of a clutch gene, and while he and his squad are playing for a wild-card berth, the Bears and their ravenous defense are fighting for a shot at a potential first-round playoff bye.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at MIN
Trubisky's numbers go as his defense goes. Although he's had a solid fantasy season in his sophomore campaign, his production has been deflated following a torrid stretch from late September through October. He's lagged to fewer than 250 passing yards in six of his last seven outings due largely to a lack of volume. Chicago's defense has held opponents to 20 or fewer in all six of those contests, and as a result, Trubisky threw it no more than 31 times in any of them. In this case, even if his volume unexpectedly spikes, facing a Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest touchdown passes in the league (15) will almost certainly limit him regardless.

Russell Wilson, SEA vs. ARZ
The Seahawks are not playing for much. They will be either the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC playoffs going on the road to play against a top-10-overall defense. Neither is appealing. This doesn't necessarily mean Wilson or any major Seahawks will rest, but they're also unlikely to put him at risk if avoidable. The translation here is that it shouldn't be surprising if Wilson throws as few as 20 times in a game Seattle can comfortably win at home with its top-notch ground game and improving defense. After all, the Seahawks' win earlier this season against Arizona saw them run it for 171 yards and two scores while Wilson failed to throw a touchdown.

RB

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at NO
In the event the Panthers still elect to play McCaffrey in a meaningless game that will be quarterbacked by a different undrafted player for the second consecutive week, don't count on him getting fed a whopping 33 times again. There's almost no chance the Carolina coaching staff is shortsighted enough to unnecessarily expose one of the offense's cornerstones to injury. As difficult as it would be to sit McCaffrey, especially with the Saints likely to rest starters a good chunk of the game, it would also be a huge risk given the circumstances.

James Conner, PIT vs. CIN
As matchups go, few get better than facing the Cincinnati defense. Nevertheless, even with Conner (ankle) trending towards suiting up after a full practice session on Wednesday, he's not one to trust for any remaining fantasy titles. Jaylen Samuels has played quite well in his absence and will certainly remain involved even if Conner starts the game. Additionally, if he suffers any setbacks in-game to the high-ankle sprain that's kept him out the past three contests, he could be watching you lose your fantasy championships from the sidelines.

Jordan Howard, CHI at MIN
Bet against Howard's recently strong play this week. He's managed at least 80 scrimmage yards or a score in four straight, but drawing a highly motivated Minnesota defense is going to put a halt to that. Howard averaged just 3.5 YPC in the first showdown of these divisional foes back in November, and it's no surprise, as the Vikings boast the 11th-ranked run defense that has also allowed the fifth-fewest rushing scores to opposing tailbacks.

WR

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. JAX
There's simply no one else left to attract any attention away from Hopkins. Will Fuller (knee) and Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) are on IR. Lamar Miller is limping around with an ankle injury. And Keke Coutee is in and out (mostly out) of the lineup due to a balky hamstring. Jalen Ramsey and Co. held Hopkins to just 50 yards in their first meeting when Fuller, Coutee and Miller were all active contributors. Even with the Texans having significant playoff seeding at stake here, it will be tough for Hopkins, who's topped 105 yards only once in the past 10 games, to deliver his usual WR1 numbers.

Amari Cooper, DAL at NYG
The Cowboys will want to win a rivalry game, but that does not mean they will risk their most important players in a game that can't change anything for their playoff seeding. Unless Cooper finds the end zone in the first half (or less), he's unlikely to be an asset for any championships being played this week.

Golden Tate, PHI at WAS
When the Eagles last played the Redskins, Tate finally filled the playmaker role Philly envisioned for him when it dealt for him at the trade deadline, notching 85 yards, a touchdown and a two-point conversion. The effort was the result of a developing chemistry with Carson Wentz. With the Eagles' starter sidelined, Tate is back to just another guy in an offense helmed by Nick Foles. Over the past two weeks with last year's Super Bowl MVP under center, Tate has a combined 56 yards despite Foles racking up 741 yards passing. Expect that trend to continue as Foles leans on the weapons he knows and trusts, namely Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor.