Exploiting the Matchups: NFL Conference Championships

One game has young quarterbacks. The other game has old quarterbacks. All four are good quarterbacks. Now that we got that out of the way, let's take a look at the injuries and mismatches that could create exploitable situations this Sunday...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers — 3:05 ET

Betting Odds: Packers -3, O/U 51

Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 31° F. 20% chance of precipitation. Wind around 10 mph. 

TB injuries: WR Antonio Brown (knee)

GB injuries: RB AJ Dillon (quad)

Injury Breakdown

The Packers always list a ton of players on their injury reports, but none besides Dillon was forced out of the divisional round win over Los Angeles. The rookie running back took six carries for 27 yards on nine snaps before he was injured (and fumbled) midway through the fourth quarter. 

Tampa is also in good shape from a health standpoint, with Brown being the only real question mark. He was hobbled during the win over New Orleans, catching just one pass for 10 yards while playing 40 percent of snaps. The Bucs would love to have Brown healthy for this game, but as far as fallback plans go, Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson both would be solid choices for the No. 3 receiver role.

Mismatch #1: Bucs' running game >>> Packers front seven

The Bucs were heavily reliant on Tom Brady throughout most of the season, finishing 29th in rush attempts and 28th in rushing yards. They still have a dangerous passing game, but they've also shown better balance during the playoffs, running for 142 yards against Washington and another 127 against the Saints.

The Packers, meanwhile, did a nice job limiting David Montgomery to 22-69-1 in the wild-card round, before giving up 90 yards and a TD to Cam Akers last weekend. Run defense remains the team's only real weakness, with Green Bay finishing the regular season at No. 18 in DVOA against the run, No. 13 in rushing yards allowed (112.8 ypg) and No. 21 in opponent YPC (4.55).

Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette aren't exactly fearsome in the backfield, but they've been good enough to get the job done in an offense that combines Brady with a standout group of pass catchers and an above-average offensive line. Tampa finished the regular season at No. 9 in PFF's team run-blocking grades, with LG Ali Marpet and RT Tristan Wirfs both earning marks above 80.0.

Mismatch #2: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers  >>> Bucs safeties

The Bucs don't have a clear weakness on paper, and yet they lost five games during the regular season, typically struggling against quality opponents prior to the playoffs. The big exception, of course, was a 38-10 rout over the Packers in Week 6, when Jamel Dean's pick-six opened the floodgates for 38 consecutive points to stomp out an early 10-0 deficit.

However, the Bucs otherwise displayed some vulnerability on the back end, allowing 282, 376 and 456 passing yards in their three November losses (to KC, NO, LAR). Safeties Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead rank 35th and 39th, respectively, in PFF grade at their position, sitting every so slightly above average out of 93 qualified players. They aren't bad players, all things considered, but this is what a weak link looks like in a game between two excellent teams.

The Prediction: Packers 31 - Bucs 24

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs — 6:40 ET

Betting Odds: Chiefs - 3, O/U 54

Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 38° F. 7% chance of precipitation. Wind around 10 mph

BUF injuries: WR Gabriel Davis (ankle), DT Vernon Butler (quadriceps)

KC injuries: QB Patrick Mahomes (concussion), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle), WR Sammy Watkins (calf), CB Bashaud Breeland (concussion), LB Willie Gay (ankle)

Injury Breakdown

Watkins, Edwards-Helaire and Gay missed last week's win over Cleveland, while Mahomes and Breeland suffered concussions during the game. Wednesday's practice report brought good news for the whole group, with Gay (a two-down linebacker) the only guy listed as a non-participant. Gay might've been helpful against the Browns last week, but his role likely will be minimal this week even if he's healthy, as the Bills rarely have fewer than three wide receivers on the field.

The Mahomes injury hangs over everything, but it isn't the only crucial situation for fantasy purposes. CEH could return to the lead backfield role, and Watkins' return would make each of Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle less appealing in DFS contests. 

On the Buffalo side, a Davis absence would leave Isaiah McKenzie and return specialist Andre Roberts as the depth receivers behind Diggs/Brown/Beasley. If Davis were out of the picture, Beasley might get a bump from his 63 and 69 percent snap shares the past two weeks. 

Butler's situation is less interesting, as he's technically a starter but finished the season with zero sacks and 19 tackles in 14 games. The Bills already have a 'quantity over quality' situation at defensive tackle, and they might even be better off with Butler's 30 snaps per game divided between some mix of Ed Oliver, Harrison Phillips, Justin Zimmer and Quinton Jefferson,

Mismatch #1: Bills QB Josh Allen >>> Chiefs' pass rush

Despite blitzing at the ninth-highest rate (35.6 percent), Kansas City finished the regular season with only 32 sacks (19th) and 150 pressures (12th), ranking 22nd in PFF's team pass-rush grades. While Chris Jones enjoyed another dominant season at defensive tackle, Frank Clark was the only other Chief with more than three sacks, and even he was a disappointment (six sacks, 25 pressures) relative to his massive contract.

Of course, none of this bothered the Chiefs back in Week 6, when they beat the Bills by nine points and limited Allen to 122 passing yards. Although they never actually managed to sack him, the Chiefs blitzed Allen on 15 of his 31 dropbacks, with the young QB completing seven of 15 throws for 51 yards and a TD (per PFF).

Allen should find more opportunities to scramble or complete downfield passes in the sequel, as he's generally done an excellent job dealing with extra pass rushers. Including the playoffs, he's completed 163 of 244 passes (66.8 percent) for 1,907 yards (7.8), 19 TDs and two INTs against blitzes this year, with more scrambles (13) than sacks (11) on those plays. 

Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo deserves credit for his Week 6 gameplan, but all the praise in the world won't save the Chiefs defense from getting smoked if the front seven can't create pressure without blitzing in Sunday's rematch.

Mismatch #2: Chiefs' O-Line >>> Bills' D-Line

Last week, I discussed the mismatch between Baltimore's rushing attack and Buffalo's run defense, including an all-important qualifier about the Bills potentially evening things out by stacking the box and relying on their talented secondary to avoid mistakes. The Bills ultimately did just that, foiling my dual predictions of a Ravens win and a standout rushing performance from Lamar Jackson.

This week, the Bills will need their linemen and linebackers to win one-on-one battle, as repeatedly stacking the box isn't the smartest option against an offense led by Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In fact, the Bills often seemed content to let Kansas City run the ball back in Week 6, with Edwards-Helaire taking 26 carries for a season-high 161 yards.

The Bills limited Hill to 25 total yards and forced the Chiefs into a slower-paced contest, but at the end of the day, Mahomes still put up 3.25 points per drive en route to a 26-17 victory. The Bills forced just one sack and five incompletions on his 34 dropbacks, getting bullied by an offensive line that finished the regular season with PFF's No. 7 grade for pass blocking and No. 11 grade for run blocking.

The Bills, meanwhile, finished with the No. 29 grade for run defense, ranking 17th in DVOA against the run and 24th in opponent YPC (4.6). Starting defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Vernon Butler both land well outside PFF's top 50 at the position, after combining for three sacks and 51 tackles during the regular season.

Mismatch #2: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes >>> All Other Humans

Josh Allen is fantastic, and the Bills are a well-coached team with a well-round roster. Even so, the Chiefs will be a solid favorite if Mahomes suits up, as his playmaking heroics can bail the team out when the O-line struggles or the scheme fails to create easy completions. The Chiefs don't always need that heroic version of Mahomes, but it's a great Plan B for when the gameplan doesn't quite work as intended.

The Prediction: With Mahomes: Chiefs 30 - Bills 27. Without Mahomes: Bills 27 - Chiefs 21