DraftKings NFL: Week 14 Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The main DFS slate for Week 14 has 13 games, including five with over/unders above 50. The road team is favored in four of those five, and in nine of the 13 overall. 

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 52+ and implied totals of 26+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• J.D. McKissic at SF ($4,900)

WFT played on Monday, which means McKissic's price doesn't account for Antonio Gibson (foot) getting injured. It happened during the first quarter of Monday's 23-17 win, freeing up McKissic for 74 percent snap share, five carries and a team-high 10 targets. He also continued to get some work as a slot receiver, staying on the field for eight of Peyton Barber's 24 snaps. The matchup here isn't great, but McKissic should have a dominant share of the RB targets in an offense that leads the NFL with 120 of those this season (10.0 per game).

• RB Austin Ekeler vs. ATL ($7,000)

Ekeler has seen 50 carries and 40 targets in the four full games he's played with Justin Herbert, averaging 21.2 DK points despite scoring just one TD. The pass-catching volume allows him to have big games without reaching the end zone, and he'll have a good shot at his second score of the season in a potential shootout with the Falcons.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Aaron Rodgers at DET ($7,500)

QB Matt Ryan at LAC ($5,700)

RB Derrick Henry at JAX ($8,700)

RB Aaron Jones at DET ($7,600)

RB James Robinson vs. TEN ($7,500)

RB Austin Ekeler vs. ATL ($7,000)

RB David Montgomery vs. HOU ($6,500)

WR Davante Adams at DET ($9,300)

WR Keenan Allen vs. ATL ($7,700)

WR Julio Jones at LAC ($6,600)

WR Corey Davis at JAX ($5,700)

WR DJ Chark vs. TEN ($5,300)

TE Travis Kelce at MIA ($7,400)

TE Logan Thomas at SF ($3,300)

D/ST Seattle Seahawks vs. NYJ ($3,000)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys at CIN ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.

Falcons (26) at Chargers (23.5)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Falcons - 4th (25.85 seconds per play),  Chargers - 5th (25.90)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Falcons - 6th (28.98),  Chargers - 3rd (28.37)

I'm surprised the over/under (49.5) isn't higher, as both teams are Top 10 in pace and pass attempts, and both feature subpar defenses. The quarterbacks may be slumping, but that's at least partially been related to some tricky matchups.

Falcons

The Saints beat up on Matt Ryan ($5,700) twice in the past three weeks, but he should bounce back against the slumping Chargers, facing a defense ranked 20th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in DK points allowed to quarterbacks. Julio Jones ($6,600) still comes at an injury discount despite seeing 10 targets and season-high 94 percent snap share last week, though he did miss practice Wednesday and Thursday, so his hamstring clearly isn't fully healthy.

Calvin Ridley ($7,500) is priced like Jones isn't playing, as he's been steady but unspectacular since mid-October. Hayden Hurst ($3,700) is a better value, with his recent production looking good against every team besides New Orleans.

Note: Jones was ruled out Friday, shortly after this article was published.

Chargers

This is a great matchup for Justin Herbert ($6,800) to break out of his slump, though the Falcons have looked far more competitive over the last month or two. They're still bottom 10 in most pass-defense stats, and their scheme seems to encourage high-volume games from opposing QB, with only seven defenses facing more pass attempts (37.5 per game) this year.

Keenan Allen ($7,700) saw his target share slip to around 20 percent the past two weeks with Austin Ekeler ($7,000) in the lineup, but the wideout has still seen double-digit targets in nine of Hebert's 11 starts, producing four games above 25 fantasy points. Both Ekeler and Allen figure to rebound this week, while volume is far less certain for Mike Williams ($4,700) and Hunter Henry ($4,300).

Williams' role as the deep threat at least gives him appeal for Herbert stacks, while Henry simply hasn't shown much of a ceiling, producing just one game with more than 15.7 PPR points in 24 appearances since the start of last season. Henry typically does enough to warrant a starting spot in season-long lineups, but I'd rather take a shot on someone like Evan Engram ($4,300) at the same price in a DFS tourney.

• Best Stack: QB Ryan + RB Ekeler + WR Allen + WR Jones Ridley + TE Hurst

Packers (31.25) at Lions (23.75)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Packers - 32nd (30.73),  Lions - 8th (26.04)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Packers - 29th (32.01),  Lions - 11th (29.78)

The Packers work at a methodical pace and don't throw many incompletions, but they've nonetheless ended up in a bunch of shootouts, ranking second in the league for points per drive (2.91) and 18th in points allowed per drive (2.25). The Lions are pretty nondescript in terms of pace and run/pass splits, with Matthew Stafford's recent uptick in volume largely just a product of negative game script.

Packers

Aaron Jones ($7,600) dominated when these teams met in Week 2, scoring 48.6 DK points in a 42-21 win. But it's really a pick-you-poison situation for coach Matt LaFleur, as Detroit has been similarly pathetic trying to defend the pass. Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) has a seven-game streak with 23.5 or more fantasy points, and he could reach the 30s against the Lions even if he throws only 30-35 passes.

Davante Adams ($9,300) topped 30 DK points for a fourth time in his past seven games last week, and Robert Tonyan ($4,200) enjoyed a thirds straight game with exactly five targets and one touchdown. On the other hand, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,900) has all but disappeared since Allen Lazard ($5,000) returned from IR, and Lazard himself seems overpriced after catching just nine passes for 91 yards in his first three games back in the lineup.

Maybe you use Lazard instead of Tonyan to differentiate a stack, especially if you want to use TJ Hockenson ($5,000) as a bring-it-back play from the Detroit side.

Lions

Matthew Stafford ($5,700) is coming off his best game of the season, but he's mostly taken a big step back from last year, and the weapons are less than stellar with Kenny Golladay (hip) likely out again. Hockenson and Marvin Jones ($5,800) have been more reliable in the second half of the season, while nobody has emerged as a consistent threat among the secondary/tertiary pass catchers.

Slot man Danny Amendola ($4,000) has reached double-digit PPR points in just two of his 10 games this year, while Quintez Cephus ($3,200) and Mohamed Sanu ($3,000) appear to be in a timeshare across from Jones, with both playing more than 40 percent of snaps last week. The backfield also looks like a mess, as it isn't clear whether D'Andre Swift (illness) will play, nor is it clear he'll return to his pre-concussion role if/when he does return.

• Best Stack: QB Rodgers + WR Adams + WR Jones + TE Tonyan

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Russell Wilson + WR DK Metcalf + WR Breshad Perriman

QB Kyler Murray + WR Christian Kirk + TE Evan Engram

QB Ryan Tannehill + WR Corey Davis + WR DJ Chark

QB Andy Dalton + WR Michael Gallup + WR Tyler Boyd + TE Dalton Schultz

QB Mike Glennon + RB Derrick Henry + WR DJ Chark + TE Tyler Eifert

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB Giovani Bernard ($5,000) + Bengals D/ST ($2,300) vs. DAL

With Joe Burrow (knee) out for the season, the Bengals have become nothing more than a punching bag covered in tiger stripes. The kitty may not have any claws, but the Cowboys aren't much better without their own franchise QB. As bad as his recent game log looks, Bernard still played more than two-thirds of offensive snaps three of the past four weeks, facing Pittsburgh, Washington, New York (Giants) and Miami. His Week 14 matchup is far better, as Tuesday's embarrassing performance in Baltimore left the Cowboys dead last in the league for run-defense DVOA (7.9%), opponent YPC (5.2) and rushing yards allowed (167.8 per game).

Honorable Mention: RB Chris Carson ($6,900) + Seahawks D/ST ($3,000) vs. NYJ; RB Jeff Wilson ($4,000) + 49ers D/ST ($2,700)

High-Priced Hero

• TE Travis Kelce at MIA ($7,400)

Kelce has beat up on good and bad defenses alike this season, putting up WR1 numbers at a position where only one other guy has caught even five passes per game. This won't necessarily be the best week for Kansas City's overall efficiency on offense, but it is possible Miami's excellent cornerback group encourages Patrick Mahomes to hone in on Kelce even more than usual, rather than testing Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the perimeter.

Honorable Mentions: WR Davante Adams, GB at DET ($9,300); RB Derrick Henry, TEN at JAX ($8,700)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR DK Metcalf vs. NYJ ($8,400)

Metcalf still makes sense as part of a Russell Wilson stack, but it's otherwise better to fade him when we know he'll be heavily rostered despite carrying his highest price of the season. That's especially true with the Seahawks turning more to their rushing attack in recent weeks, with Wilson now a full month removed from his last big fantasy game. Metcalf figures to do well with whatever volume he gets, but it could be only 5-7 targets this week.

Other Fades: TE Darren Waller, LV vs. IND ($6,800)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• RB Jonathan Taylor at LV ($5,800)

If it weren't for his COVID-list absence a couple weeks ago, Taylor might have an unstoppable hype train. He took 26 touches for 114 yards in Week 11 and 16 touches for 135 yards and a TD in Week 13, while Nyheim Hines and Jordan Taylor were quiet in both contests. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders were busy getting owned by Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-69-2 in Week 11), Ito Smith (12-65-1 in Week 12) and Ty Johnson (22-104-1 in Week 13), dropping to 31st in run-defense DVOA and 27th in DK points allowed to running backs. The Colts may be without LT Anthony Castonzo (knee) for another week, but their healthy O-line starters have finally been playing up to the reputation recently.

Honorable Mention: WR DJ Chark vs. TEN ($5,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Andy Dalton at CIN ($5,500)

QB Mike Glennon vs. TEN ($5,100)

RB Leonard Fournette vs. MIN ($4,500)

RB Jeff Wilson vs. WAS ($4,000)

RB Kalen Ballage vs. ATL ($4,000)

WR Darius Slayton vs. ARZ ($4,200)

WR Breshad Perriman at SEA ($3,900)

WR Michael Gallup at CIN ($3,800)

WR Cam Sims at SF ($3,100)

WR KJ Hamler at CAR ($3,000)

TE Logan Thomas at SF ($3,300)

TE Tyler Eifert vs. TEN ($3,100)

TE Jordan Akins at CHI ($2,900)

TE Cole Kmet vs. HOU ($2,900)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys at CIN ($2,400)

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals vs. DAL ($2,300)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can plan our response ahead of time for various scenarios that could emerge once inactive lists are released.

•  QB Daniel Jones vs. ARZ

I don't plan on rostering Jones or Colt McCoy, but my interest in TE Evan Engram ($4,300) depends on him playing with DJ rather than Colt.

• RB Josh Jacobs vs. IND

Devontae Booker ($5,200) messed up a lot of lineups last week, but he did get 16 of the Raiders' 23 RB carries. He'll be lightly rostered this week against a solid Colts defense.

• WR A.J. Brown at JAX

Brown has been a regular on the injury report all season, but he could be in real danger of missing a game after he played through an ankle sprain last week. Either way, Corey Davis ($5,700) looks like a strong play, facing the pathetic Jacksonville pass defense. Brown could be a nice contrarian option if it turns out the ankle injury isn't a real threat.

• WR Mike Evans vs. MIN

Chris Godwin ($6,300), Antonio Brown ($5,500) and Rob Gronkowski ($4,800) all get a boost if Evans can't play. Personally, I'm fine with paying more for Godwin, as Brown has largely just seen short passes from Tom Brady.

• WRs DJ Moore & Curtis Samuel vs. DEN

Both guys are on the COVID list, and Moore also has an ankle injury. My best guess is that Samuel plays and Moore doesn't, but we may not know until Saturday/Sunday. Anyway, it's mostly interesting as the situation relates to Robby Anderson, who could reverse his downward volume trend if one of both receiving mates is/are absent.

• TEs Kyle Rudolph & Irv Smith at TB

After Smith missed three of the past four games with a groin injury, it appears Rudolph could be the one out this week. Irv will be a solid choice at $3,100, but only if he plays and Rudolph doesn't. Should both end up missing the game, Tyler Conklin ($2,500) would be looking at a three-down role.

Weather Watch

It's mid-December and the Week 14 main slate includes games in New York, Cincinnati, Chicago, Seattle and Philadelphia. Regardless, this looks like a boring week from a weather standpoint, with forecasts calling for clear skies and calm winds throughout most of the Midwest and Northeast. We might see rain in Seattle and/or San Francisco, but it shouldn't be too cold or windy.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm now running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or to their venmo account).

The Jets haven't done enough to actually win a game, but they have been competitive enough to inspire a Toilet Bowl rule change, with three of their last four contests decided by six points or less. We'll now allow Jets players in the Toilet Bowl, which means there are only two rules (listed below) for the final four weeks.

The Week 13 champ was DK user blindsquirrlfindsnut, who cashed in on duds from Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry in the Chargers' 45-0 loss to New England. Here's the winning lineup:

And here are the rules:

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. No using players from the New York Jets, including the D/ST. Automatic DQ for a violation.
3. Any player with zero points automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/98526636

Good Luck!