DraftKings NFL: Week 12 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 12 slate features 10 games with Buffalo at Philadelphia in the marquee matchup. Of the other nine games, four have totals less than 37 points. We're also lacking for elite options without the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson or the Chargers on this slate. With less opportunity cost and the possibility for lower scores, it's a great time to fade chalk and take chances in tournaments. Pick a game that has shootout potential and stack it with four or five players. Use the other roster spots for your favorite leverage option and the one or two pieces of chalk you're comfortable eating. That's what I plan on doing at least. Hopefully, there are a few good ideas in this article. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Rachaad White at IND ($6,100)

Everything about this spot looks good for White, who's clearly established himself as Tampa Bay's bell cow. Sunday's game environment in Indianapolis is arguably the best on the slate in terms of the amount of plays and fantasy points it's likely to produce. The Colts defense has allowed at least 138 rushing yards in four consecutive games and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. White also projects well because he remains heavily involved in the passing game after catching six passes for third time in five games last time out. Altogether, it makes him a great option for both cash games and GPPs. Same goes for Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,800), who projects as one of the better value options with the Patriots in such a good spot against the Giants.

***Update***

Rachaad White was downgraded to questionable on Saturday. I still plan on rostering him in tournaments but he's riskier in cash-games. Jonathan Taylor ($6,900) and Isiah Pacheco ($6,200) are now expected to be the most popular, with Taylor being a lock for cash-games.

• WR Josh Downs vs. TB ($4,800)

This is an ideal spot for the Colts' passing game at home in the dome against Tampa Bay's pass-funnel defense. Opponents throw against the Bucs at the second-highest rate in the league and  are successful doing it. The Colts are coming off a bye and Downs is fully healthy after recovering from a lingering knee injury. The third-round rookie had established a nice connection with Gardner Minshew prior to getting hurt, catching at least five passes in four consecutive games  with two TDs in that span. While Downs is a good choice in any format, I'd stop short of calling him a must-have because there are other cheap options who project similarly well. Demario Douglas ($4,400) is probably top of that list considering he's caught at least five passes in three consecutive games and the Pats have a great matchup against the Giants. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts vs. BUF ($8,300)

QB Trevor Lawrence at HOU ($6,400)

QB Baker Mayfield at IND ($5,500)

QB Gardner Minshew vs. TB ($5,100)

RB Travis Etienne at HOU ($7,100)

RB Jonathan Taylor vs. TB ($6,900)

RB Isiah Pacheco at LV ($6,200)

RB Rachaad White at IND ($6,100)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson at NYG ($5,800)

WR A.J. Brown vs. BUF ($9,000)

WR Tank Dell vs. JAX ($6,900)

WR Michael Pittman vs. TB ($6,800)

WR Christian Kirk at HOU ($5,700)

WR Josh Downs vs. TB ($4,800)

WR Demario Douglas at NYG ($4,400)

WR Greg Dortch vs. LAR ($3,300), if Marquise Brown is out

TE Trey McBride vs. LAR ($4,700)

D/ST New England Patriots at NYG ($3,200)

D/ST Kansas City Chiefs at LV ($3,100)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Buffalo Bills (22.75) at Philadelphia Eagles (25.75)

BILLS

Bills-Eagles is the marquee matchup of the week, and it's easy to understand why it will be a popular target for game stacks. It features the highest total, two of the top-three quarterbacks and the top-two wide receivers. The Bills play at a quick tempo and pass at a high clip while the Eagles defense has faced the league's highest opponent pass rate. If the offenses come out sharp, we could be in for a shootout. Maybe Josh Allen ($8,100) hasn't hit the heights many expected this season, but his ceiling is still as high as any QB. Part of the reason is that he's still rushing for touchdowns as he's scored on the ground in four of his last five games. He looked sharp in last week's destruction of the Jets, throwing for 275 yards and three TDs. You'd expect the game to be on his shoulders against an Eagles defense whose strong suit is stopping the run. Stefon Diggs ($8,800) has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in consecutive games and has drawn "just" 20 targets in his last three. That's somewhat concerning after we saw him get at least 11 targets in six of the first eight games. I don't expect him to be very popular, hence he's a decent leverage option when you factor his ceiling potential. Same goes for Gabe Davis ($5,300), who incredibly has gone reception-less in two of his last three despite playing more than 90 percent of snaps. Khalil Shakir ($3,600) is coming off his best game of the season after three catches for 115 yards and a TD. He's worth a shot when you consider the cheap salary and the fact he's played at least 71 percent of snaps in three straight. Of all the Bills pass-catchers, Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) inspires the most confidence. The talented rookie has really come on in the absence of Dawson Knox as he's caught at least five passes in five consecutive games while finding the endzone twice in that span. If I roster Allen, it will definitely be with Kincaid. 

EAGLES

You can almost bank on a Jalen Hurts ($8,300) rushing TD every week as he now has nine this season after two more in Monday night's comeback win over the Chiefs. He's put up 25-plus fantasy points in six of 10 games and faces a Bills defense decimated by injuries. A.J. Brown ($9,000) is coming off a quiet night in Kansas City, but that's a minor blip in what's been a standout season. He's topped 125 receiving yards in six games already and scored more than 30 fantasy points in three, making it safe to say he has the highest ceiling of any non-quarterback on the slate. DeVonta Smith ($7,100) was Hurts' favorite target last week, catching six for 99 yards. It was the second time in three games he finished with exactly 99 yards to frustrate fantasy owners. The nice thing about stacking the Eagles' passing game is that you only need to pair Hurts with one WR and there is really no one else to consider besides Brown and Smith, neither of whom will be too chalky. 

• Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + TE Kincaid + WR Smith +/- WR Shakir
• Favorite Eagles Stack: QB Hurts + WR Brown or WR Smith + TE Kincaid

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21) at Indianapolis Colts (23.5)

BUCCANEERS

Games played inside the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium have been fruitful for fantasy points all season. The Colts play fast and their games produce a lot of plays. They also have a below average defense and look set to be without top corner JuJu Brents. Baker Mayfield ($5,500) is in the midst of a stellar season as he's proved a lot of people wrong as to whether he could be a competent starting QB. He and the Bucs offense should be licking their chops. Mike Evans ($7,400) gets a great matchup against two inexperienced cornerbacks in a dome. We've already seen a couple of 30-point ceiling games from him and you wouldn't be surprised to see him do it again. Chris Godwin ($6,300) only has one touchdown catch this season but ranks top 10 in red-zone targets and targets inside the 10, so you'd figure that will change soon. Cade Otton ($3,200) has drawn at least five targets in four of his last five games and stands out as one of the better sub $4K tight end options. This is a great spot for Rachaad White ($6,100), with the Colts' defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. White plays 80 percent of the snaps and remains heavily involved in the passing game, meaning that you can creditably pair him with either quarterback. Check his status as he is questionable with a knee injury.

COLTS

The Bucs' defense is a pass-funnel, with teams throwing against it at the league's second-highest clip. We just saw Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud have monster games against Tampa Bay, and while Gardner Minshew ($5,100) isn't as good as them, he's proved capable of succeeding in these spots. We saw him light up two of the league's better defenses in the Browns and Jags for 300-plus yards. The Colts are also fresh off a bye while the Bucs have three of their top defenders listed as questionable. Michael Pittman ($6,800) has caught at least eight passes in four of his last five games and has drawn 12-plus targets in three. Josh Downs ($4,800) had been bothered by a knee injury prior to the bye but practiced fully and goes into Sunday without an injury designation. Jonathan Taylor ($6,900) faces a tough matchup against the Bucs' stellar run defense but is affordably priced after out-touching Zack Moss ($4,700) 24-1 last time out. Taylor is involved enough in the passing game to where I still favor using him as a bring-back in Bucs stacks, if that's the route you're considering. 

• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Evans + WR Pittman or WR Downs +/- TE Otton
• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Minshew + WR Evans + WR Pittman and/or WR Downs

Other Stacks to Consider

• QB Josh Allen + RB D'Andre Swift + TE Dalton Kincaid +/- WR Khalil Shakir
• QB C.J. Stroud + RB Travis Etienne and/or WR Calvin Ridley + WR Nico Collins + TE Dalton Schultz
• QB Kyler Murray + RB Kyren Williams or WR Puka Nacua + TE Trey McBride
• QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Calvin Ridley and/or WR Christian Kirk + TE Dalton Schultz
• QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Calvin Ridley or WR Christian Kirk + WR Nico Collins +/- TE Evan Engram
• QB Derek Carr + RB Bijan Robinson + WR Chris Olave + WR Rashid Shaheed
• QB Baker Mayfield + RB Jonathan Taylor + WR Mike Evans +/- TE Cade Otton
• QB Gardner Minshew + RB Rachaad White + WR Michael Pittman and/or WR Josh Downs

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Mike Evans at IND ($7,400)

What was already a great matchup for Evans got better with the news that JuJu Brents, the Colts best cornerback, will be out. Evans has a ceiling on par with any WR on the slate in this spot, playing in a dome against backup corners. He's also not going to be popular and the matchup against the Colts stands out as one of the best games to stack, so it makes all sense in the world to get exposure to Evans in GPPs. 

• WR A.J. Brown vs. BUF ($9,000)

On a slate that lacks for elite options at both RB and WR, Brown really stands out as a player who can separate from the pack. The matchup at home against the Bills has the potential to shoot out and Brown has already shown 30- and 40-point ceilings this season. He's also not expected to be overly popular, which means that if he hits a ceiling it would go a long way to winning a tournament. 

Honorable Mentions: WR DeVonta Smith ($7,100); RB Saquon Barkley ($7,300)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Alvin Kamara at ATL ($8,400)

Kamara is by far the most expensive running back on the slate, and I don't think his salary is warranted based on the fact that he loses so many goal-line touches to Taysom Hill. I worry that he doesn't have a consistent enough ceiling to pay off his price. So much of Kamara's value comes from receptions and I'd rather not rely on that when there are plenty of good RBs in the $6K range and even a couple cheaper. I'd rather get as much exposure to that range as possible than gamble that Kamara catches 10 passes. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Rashid Shaheed at ATL ($4,300)

The news that Michael Thomas has been placed on IR could be significant for Shaheed. He's one of the best deep threats in the league and all he needs is a few big plays to produce a big score. He already has four receptions of 40 or more yards this season and is coming off a season-high nine targets. He also would offer nice leverage off of the chalkier options in his salary range. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Josh Downs ($4,800); WR Demario Douglas ($4,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Baker Mayfield at IND ($5,500)

QB Gardner Minshew vs. TB ($5,100)

WR Diontae Johnson at CIN ($4,900)

WR Josh Downs vs. TB ($4,800)

WR Demario Douglas at NYG ($4,400)

WR Rashid Shaheed at ATL ($4,300)

WR Robert Woods vs. JAX ($4,000)

WR Elijah Moore at DEN ($3,700)

WR Rondale Moore vs. LAR ($3,600)

WR Greg Dortch vs. LAR ($3,300)

WR Justin Watson at LV ($3,000)

TE Cade Otton at IND ($3,200)

TE Juwan Johnson at ATL ($3,000)

TE Michael Mayer vs. KC ($2,800)

TE Kylen Granson vs. TB ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Marquise Brown vs. LAR ($5,200)

Brown is listed as questionable after missing practice all week with a heel injury. If he were to miss, Rondale Moore ($3,600) and Greg Dortch ($3,300) would be the starting WRs as Michael Wilson has already been ruled out. Dortch would become a viable option in cash-games after he played 75 percent of the snaps and handled most of the slot work last week. 

Weather

• Nothing significant to worry about this week. There's potential for light showers in Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Check the forecast Sunday morning if you're planning to roster any pass-catchers in those matchups.