DraftKings NFL: Week 11 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 11 slate includes 11 games and features the Cardinals-Texans matchup with the highest total. Some cheap salaries and key injury news will make that matchup popular to target, but other than that the slate is wide open. As of Friday, none of games have a total higher than 48 points and there is little in the way of obvious chalk at every position besides TE. For me that makes things more subjective and means you can take a few more chances with fading chalk in favor of something under the radar. By my count there are eight or nine games that you could creditably target and stack in some fashion for GPPs. I highlighted some of the top cash-game options and gave out a few ideas for tournament stacks. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Devin Singletary vs. ARI ($5,300)

With Dameon Pierce out again, Singletary will be the most popular RB on the slate and that chalk is justified when you consider he had 30 carries for 150 yards and a TD last week against the Bengals. His salary is still cheap and the Texans have a favorable matchup at home against the Cardinals, who have one of the league's worst defensive lines. If you want to look elsewhere, Aaron Jones ($6,200) projects pretty well at home against the Chargers. He has 41 touches, including eight catches in his last two games and his health seems to be trending in the right direction. I'd probably prefer Brian Robinson ($5,800) in a great matchup at home against the Giants. 

• WR Rondale Moore at HOU ($3,300)

Moore is expected to be the most popular WR in the $3K range, which on its own makes him a viable cash-game option. He caught five of eight targets last week in Kyler Murray's return. It's because of Murray that Moore and the Cardinals pass-catchers project well this week. Simply put, they wouldn't be priced so cheap if Murray had been healthy all season. He isn't a lock by any means, but if you need salary relief, he's one of the better options. Marquise Brown ($5,300) projects best in the $5K range, but I imagine people will be wary of going back to him after just one catch on four targets last week. I still have interest for tournaments. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Sam Howell vs. NYG ($6,300)

QB Kyler Murray at HOU ($6,100)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. TEN ($6,000)

QB Brock Purdy vs. TB ($5,800)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. TB (9,300)

RB Austin Ekeler at GB ($8,600)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. CHI ($7,000)

RB Aaron Jones vs. LAC ($6,200)

RB Brian Robinson vs. NYG ($5,800)

RB Devin Singletary vs. ARI ($5,300)

WR Tyreek Hill vs. LV ($9,300)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CHI ($8,800)

WR Cooper Kupp vs. SEA ($8,100)

WR Christian Kirk vs. TEN ($6,000)

WR Tank Dell vs. ARI ($5,900)

WR Marquise Brown at HOU ($5,300)

WR Rondale Moore at HOU ($3,300)

TE Trey McBride at HOU ($4,400)

TE Evan Engram vs. TEN ($4,300)

D/ST Washington Commanders vs. NYG ($3,600)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TEN ($3,400)

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. LV ($3,200)

D/ST New York Jets at BUF ($2,600)

D/ST Green Bay Packers vs. LAC ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Arizona Cardinals (22) at Houston Texans (27)

CARDINALS

The Arizona-Houston matchup stands out for a variety of reasons. It has the highest total on a slate that doesn't offer much in the way of games that are expected to be fast-paced and competitive. It also features plenty of viable fantasy options as I count at least five players from each team who are worthy of consideration. Kyler Murray ($6,100) looked better than most expected to in his long-awaited return from a torn ACL. He looked plenty mobile too as he rushed six times for 33 yards and a TD. The Cardinals played fast and threw at a 63 percent situation-neutral clip. Marquise Brown ($5,300) was the only real disappointment as he caught just one pass on four targets. I assume that will keep his popularity in check, despite the fact that he projects among the best value at WR. Rondale Moore ($3,300) led Cards receivers, catching five of eight targets for 43 yards while Michael Wilson ($3,400) caught three of six for 34 yards. Moore will be a relatively popular choice in the 3K range while Wilson will go overlooked. Trey McBride ($4,400) was Murray's favorite target as he caught eight passes for 131 yards. He has all the attributes of an elite pass-catching TE and you wouldn't be surprised if he has another big game in this spot. He rightly projects as the top value at TE, in my opinion. James Conner ($5,700) returned from a knee injury to carry 16 times for 73 yards. The running back position is weak in the mid-range, making Conner a slightly more attractive option than he otherwise would be. I doubt I'd pair him with Murray, but he makes sense in Texans stacks. 

TEXANS

After C.J. Stroud's ($7,000) record-setting 470-yard performance two weeks ago, I was afraid we might see a letdown last week in Cincinnati. What we got was the opposite as Stroud was brilliant again as he led the Texans to the upset, completing a whopping 17 passes of 15-plus yards. In addition to Dameon Pierce, Noah Brown (knee) yet to practice and it's important to monitor his status. Nico Collins ($6,700) missed last week due to a calf injury but says he's good to go now. Few will roster him as his salary has shot up to a season high, which  makes him a decent leverage option. Tank Dell ($5,900) has drawn 25 targets and scored three TDs the last two weeks. He's my favorite option of the pass-catchers based on his explosiveness and big-play ability. Robert Woods ($3,700) has been practicing fully and could be worth taking a chance on if Brown ends up sitting. He drew nine-plus targets in three of the first five games of the season before getting injured. Dalton Schultz ($5,000) has at least 60 yards in four of his last five games and a TD in four of his last six. He won't be popular either, with most people likely to live in the mid 4K range or below at TE. Devin Singletary ($5,300) is coming off a massive game after he rushed for 150 yards and a TD on 30 carries against the Bengals. With Pierce out again, Singletary projects among the best value on the slate and be quite popular as a result. 

• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Murray + RB Singletary + WR Moore or WR Brown + TE McBride
• Favorite Texans Stack: QB Stroud + RB Conner + WR Dell or WR Woods + TE Schultz

Dallas Cowboys (26.5) at Carolina Panthers (16)

COWBOYS

It's impossible to ignore how good the Cowboys' passing game has looked recently. Dak Prescott ($7,300) has been especially impressive as he's topped 300 yards in three consecutive games and thrown for 11 TDs in that span. He scored at least 31 fantasy points in each, and if he does that again, he'll likely be optimal. Unfortunately, we can't really expect the Panthers to push them, but the Cowboys kept their foot on the pedal in last week's blowout of the Giants. CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) set an NFL record as he became the first player to have at least 11 catches and 150 receiving yards in three consecutive games. Brandin Cooks ($4,700) is coming off his best game of the season after catching nine for 173 yards and a TD. Even Michael Gallup ($3,800) got in on the action with two catches for 70 yards and a score. Most of my interest is in Lamb and Cooks, but Gallup is a fine leverage option in the largest-field GPPs. Jake Ferguson ($4,600) has a TD in three consecutive games and makes for nice leverage off McBride and Engram in that range. At this point I'm done rostering Tony Pollard ($6,600) after he busted yet again last week. Mike McCarthy even talked up Rico Dowdle ($4,600) this week. I suppose Sunday could be the day when Pollard finally breaks out but it won't be me who'd benefit. I'm solely focused on Prescott, Lamb and the passing game. 

PANTHERS   

After what little we've seen from Bryce Young ($5,100) lately, it'd be perfectly reasonable to stack the Cowboys without any Panthers. That strategy sure worked last week when they blew out the Giants. However, Carolina's pass-catchers make for decent options if you're looking for a bring-back. Adam Thielen ($7,500) will go overlooked after back-to-back duds and, to be honest, I find it difficult to justify paying his salary on this slate. It would make sense from a leverage perspective, though, and we've seen him hit a 30-point ceilings three times already this season. I'm more likely to look for some salary relief with either Jonathan Mingo ($3,500) or DJ Chark ($3,400). Mingo is a talented rookie who's been seeing targets but is yet to score his first touchdown. Chark has practiced fully after missing last week with an elbow injury. He's been a deep threat throughout his career and we've seen him connect with Young for three TDs in just seven games as he's battled injury. With Hayden Hurst ruled out, Tommy Tremble ($2,500) steps in as the No. 1 TE. He has decent receiving chops and was already seeing an increases in snaps while Hurst was healthy. I have no problem rostering him for minimum salary opposite Prescott and Lamb. 

• Favorite Cowboys Stack 1: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR Mingo or WR Chark + TE Ferguson
• Favorite Cowboys Stack 2: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR Cooks + TE Tremble 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB Josh Jacobs + WR Tyreek Hill and/or WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Justin Herbert + RB Aaron Jones + WR Keenan Allen and/or WR Quentin Johnston

QB Justin Herbert + RB Austin Ekeler + WR Christian Watson or WR Jayden Reed + WR Quentin Johnston

QB Justin Fields + RB Jahmyr Gibbs and/or WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + WR DJ Moore or TE Cole Kmet

QB Jared Goff + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + TE Cole Kmet 

QB Matthew Stafford + WR Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua + WR DK Metcalf or WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

QB Sam Howell + WR Terry McLaurin or WR Jahan Dotson +/- TE Logan Thomas 

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Christian Kirk or WR Calvin Ridley + TE Evan Engram

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + RB Rachaad White + WR Deebo Samuel or TE George Kittle

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Mike Evans + WR Deebo Samuel or TE George Kittle

QB Jordan Love + RB Austin Ekeler + WR Christian Watson or WR Jayden Reed +/- TE Luke Musgrave

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Tyreek Hill vs. LV ($9,300)

There are plenty of elite WRs on this slate but none has a higher ceiling than Hill in this spot. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and get a prime matchup at home against the Raiders. The best argument for fading him is that he'll be the most popular of the six options priced above $8K. 

• WR CeeDee Lamb at CAR ($9,200)

Lamb has been on a tear since the Cowboys decided to emphasize him and the passing game. He set an NFL record last week when he became the first player to have at least 11 catches and 150 receiving yards in three consecutive games. He's extra appealing this week when you consider that Hill, St. Brown and Kupp are expected to be more popular.

Honorable Mentions: RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,300); WR Cooper Kupp ($8,100)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Tony Pollard at CAR ($6,600)

It seems as though people are still planning to roster Pollard this week as he's relatively cheap and the Cowboys have a favorable matchup against the Panthers. It won't be me, however, as I'm completely over it after last week when he mustered just 5.5 fantasy points despite Dallas hanging 49 points on the Giants. Dak Prescott threw for more than 400 yards and didn't target Pollard once. Mike McCarthy mentioned in his press conference that he hoped to get Rico Dowdle more involved which wouldn't bode well for Pollard either. There are cheaper RBs I'd rather take a chance on than gamble on Pollard finally breaking out. 

***UPDATE*

Rico Dowdle was downgraded to questionable after Saturday's walkthrough. If he's ruled out, I wouldn't highlight Pollard as a fade because his path to 100+ yards and a TD would be much clearer in such a soft matchup. He's also not expected to be overly popular, which has me thinking that I'd rather fade the more expensive Travis Etienne, who might even be higher owned than Pollard. Mostly I just prefer cheaper backs like Robinson and Singletary.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Brian Robinson vs. NYG ($5,800)

With the news that Antonio Gibson (toe) is doubtful, this spot is as good as it gets for Robinson. The Commanders are nearly 10-point favorites at home against a Giants team that's been inept on offense with Tommy DeVito under center. It was nice to see Robinson prove he can succeed in the passing-game after six catches for 119 yards and a TD last week against the Seahawks. He should find himself with ample opportunity in the red zone assuming the Commanders control the game as is expected. He has upside for 100-plus yards and two scores if that's the case. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Tank Dell ($5,900); WR Terry McLaurin ($5,800)

The Bargain Bin

RB Jerome Ford vs. PIT ($5,200)

RB Jaylen Warren at CLE ($5,100)

RB Najee Harris at CLE ($5,100)

RB Darrell Henderson vs. SEA ($5,000)

WR Brandin Cooks at CAR ($4,700)

WR Christian Watson vs. LAC ($4,600)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at LAR ($4,300)

WR Quentin Johnston at GB ($4,200)

WR Jayden Reed vs. LAC ($4,000)

WR Robert Woods vs. ARI ($3,700)

WR Curtis Samuel vs. NYG ($3,600)

WR Michael Wilson at HOU ($3,400)

WR Jonathan Mingo vs. DAL ($3,400)

WR DJ Chark vs. DAL ($3,300)

TE Donald Parham at GB ($3,100)

TE Pat Freiermuth at CLE ($2,500)

TE Tommy Tremble vs. DAL ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB Antonio Gibson vs. NYG

I mentioned above that Gibson is doubtful with a toe injury and if he misses that it becomes a great spot for Brian Robinson ($5,800) at home against the Giants. 

Weather

• The weather in Buffalo won't be great. Some rain and/or snow is expected with temperatures in the 30s and wind gusts up to 25 mph. Check the forecast Sunday morning if you're considering players from either side. Bad weather could be a bump to the running-games and defenses.