Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 5

AAC

Start

Holton Ahlers, Quarterback, East Carolina at Old Dominion

I've been an Ahlers skeptic for some time, but it would be obstinate to recommend benching him this week against Old Dominion. The Monarchs have the 12th-lowest defensive efficiency per the new RotoWire Team Rankings metrics. Meanwhile, Ahlers has done enough on the ground with eight touchdowns and a team-leading 185 rushing yards to mitigate the impact on his poor passing numbers. 

 As a player in whom you likely invested a high draft pick, Ahlers has been a relative disappointment through the first four games. Matching up against a shaky Old Dominion defense should help Ahlers recoup some of that. 

SIT

Brady White, QB, Memphis vs. Navy

Even with Patrick Taylor Jr. sidelined, Memphis has become a decidedly run-first operation in 2019, ranking 14th in the nation in rushing play percentage at 63.1 percent. White has been efficient with his dialed-back attempts, averaging 10.0 yards per attempt and completing 72 percent of his passes. We need some volume on top of efficiency in fantasy football, though, and it hasn't really been there from White just yet. 

 It's a small sample, but White hasn't thrown for more than 209 yards in either of his matchups against FBS opponents. With this new offensive philosophy, White simply isn't being asked to air it out in 2019. Beyond that, a matchup with Navy can complicate matters for his fantasy value. Obviously, the Navy offense is designed to sap the clock, and when that's compounded by Memphis' own run-heavy nature, the ceiling is capped for White. It's also worth noting that Navy has allowed opponents to complete just 51.9 percent of passes with a 5.9 YPA. Look for Thursday to mark one of White's lower fantasy outputs of the season. 

ACC

START

Quentin Harris, QB, Duke at Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech is a tough to play, especially in prime time. Harris is built to handle it, though, and his numbers since the season opener against Alabama have been encouraging. 

He has completed 78 percent of his passes for 582 yards and eight scores in those two games while also adding 190 rushing yards and a touchdown. Granted, those numbers have come against North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee, but those are the type of numbers you'd hope he'd put up in those matchups. 

Virginia Tech is an experienced defense coming off a bye, but it hasn't been an overly impressive group. The surface level metrics look good thanks to strong outings against Old Dominion and Furman, but look what happened when Virginia Tech faced a poor Boston College team. It allowed 35 points to BC and three total touchdowns to quarterback Anthony Brown. Harris was a top-25 quarterback by our projections entering the season, and this week will go a long ways toward vindicating that. 

SIT

Joe Reed, WR, Virginia at Notre Dame

Notre Dame brings one of the best secondaries in the nation to the table, and that bodes poorly for Reed on the road this week. Reed, who leads the team in target share at 24.2 percent, is averaging just 7.2 yards per target despite facing middling competition. Reed's fantasy value has been largely touchdown dependent with a score in each of the last three games, so counting on him to reach pay dirt against a Notre Dame defense that has more interceptions (3) than touchdowns allowed, could burn you. 

BIG 12

START

James Gilbert, RB, Kansas State at Oklahoma State

Gilbert is the engine of this Kansas State offense, taking 43 carries for 277 yards (6.4 YPC) and three touchdowns through the first three games of the season. Facing a team with an explosive offense like Oklahoma State ups the need for Kansas State to play a possession-based game, so that means a heavy workload for Gilbert.

In terms of the matchup itself, Oklahoma State has done well against the run, having allowed just 3.9 yards per carry and just four rushing scores in four games. The Pokes just had to deal with a brutal game against Texas, however, while Kansas State is rested coming off a bye. This sets up well for Gilbert and the Kansas State run game on Saturday.

SIT

Baylor Backfield vs. Iowa State

The Bears have an unpredictable backfield with several moving parts with such as Trestan Ebner, John Lovett and JaMycal Hasty. That rotational depth allows Baylor to mix and match its backs based on the situation, which is great if you're a Bears fan but tough as a fantasy investor. This week could be tough for all three, though, as Iowa State is giving up 3.24 yards per carry and has allowed just two rushing scores on 110 attempts this season. Baylor's passing game should make this matchup interesting, but I'm fading the Bears backs for fantasy purposes.

BIG TEN

START

Rodney Smith, RB, Minnesota at Purdue

Minnesota is set to have a fully healthy backfield this week with Smith (oblique), Shannon Brooks (knee) and Mohamed Ibrahim (foot) reportedly ready to roll. Brooks has had a lengthy absence, so he's not ready for a full workload, but Smith is good to go and was the clear No. 1 option in this backfield before the bye. 

Getting to face Purdue means getting to face one of the Big Ten's worst run defenses, so all three of the Gopher backs should have success. But Smith being the top back means he'll get the most chances at a Boilermakers defense that allows 4.78 yards per carry.

SIT

Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland

No one has been able to crack this Penn State run defense yet as the Nittany Lions have given up 1.9 yards per carry and one rushing score across 111 rushing attempts. McFarland has the type of big-play ability, as evidenced by his 12 runs of at least 20 yards last year, to make the Nittany Lions pay for even just one slip up. But McFarland hasn't broken off a single 20-yard rush this season and the odds of him having a full day of success against this Penn State defense are slim considering the Nittany Lions' advantage in the trenches.

C-USA

START

Tre Siggers, RB, North Texas vs. Houston

Talk about an out-of-nowhere story in Denton with Siggers going from relative unknown to leader of the Mean Green backfield in a matter of weeks. It's not like DeAndre Torrey, Loren Easly or Nic Smith are slouches, either. It's just that Siggers brings a level of explosiveness at 7.9 YPC that none of the other options offer. This week the Mean Green are at home against a Houston team that's in about as weird of a place as I've seen from a program in recent memory. 

Houston allows 5.7 yards per carry (123rd in the nation) and comes into this game out of sorts. This could be a huge spot for Siggers and the North Texas offense. 

SIT

Corey Gammage, WR, Marshall vs. Cincinnati

Gammage is positioned to be one of Marshall's top targets this week, especially if Obi Obialo (foot) remains sidelined. Facing a Cincinnati defense that has the second-best rating in the AAC makes this a tough challenge for Gammage, even if he's in line to be featured. 

MAC

START

Bryant Koback, RB, Toledo vs. BYU

BYU continues to struggle against the run, ranking 116th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game, and that's going to be a problem when the Cougs head to Toledo and try to stop Koback. 

Koback quietly ranks eighth in the nation in fantasy points per game among running backs (24.4), picking up from where he left off in 2018 when he came out of nowhere to carry the Rockets' backfield. He's averaging 7.7 yards per carry and has five touchdowns on 47 carries. Even if BYU plays its best defense of the season, it simply may not matter with the way Koback is running. 

Also, every Akron skill player is in play against Massachusetts. Sorry, UMass

SIT

Mitchell Guadagni, QB, Toledo vs. BYU

It was tough to find a definite "Sit" candidate from the MAC this  week with so many soft matchups across the conference. Even the non-conference games aren't intimidating! I can't tell you to sit Ross Bowers against Vanderbilt just because that's an SEC opponent!

In Guadagni, we have an offshoot from the Koback recommendation. Guadagni is a good player on a per-throw basis, completing nearly 60 percent of his passes with a 9.6 YPA. However, Toledo is extremely run-heavy with the ninth-highest run rate in the nation. This limits Guadagni's projected passing attempts on a weekly basis. If BYU bites down on stopping Gaudagni as a rusher, this could end up being one of Guadagni's lower outputs of the season. 

MOUNTAIN WEST

START

Jaylen Warren, RB, Utah State vs Colorado State

Colorado State's Marvin Kinsey is unfortunately unlikely to play this week, but that doesn't mean this game will be missing offensive fireworks in the backfield. On the other side of this matchup is Warren, who has surpassed Gerold Bright to become the new top back for the Aggies.

Warren averages 7.11 yards per carry and has four rushing scores through three games and now gets to face a Rams defense that has given up 11 rushing touchdowns through four games and ranks 128th in yards per carry allowed (6.4). Warren couldn't have a greener light for Week 5.

SIT

Miles Reed, RB, Hawaii at Nevada

Reed may be the primary running back for Hawaii, but that has netted him just 45 carries for 212 yards and two scores through four games. Nevada actually has some semblance of a run defense, too, with the Wolf Pack allowing just 3.81 YPC through four games, and that's even with a drubbing from Oregon baked into the numbers. Reed's usage in the run game coupled with his lack of passing-game work make him a fade this week. 

PAC-12

START

Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Oregon State vs. Stanford

I don't know what is going on at Stanford. The defense, particularly in the secondary, has been dreadful, allowing 9.6 yards per pass attempt and giving up 10 touchdowns through four games. Stanford's terrible offense isn't helping matters as it can't sustain drives, leaving a poor defense exposed to more and more plays.

Enter Hodgins, who is the best kept secret in the Pacific Northwest. The 6-foot-4 Hodgins is officially a problem for all Pac-12 defenses. He averages 10.2 yards per target and averages nearly 12 targets per game. Volume isn't his only fantasy-relevant attribute, though. Hodgins has turned five of his 23 receptions into touchdowns already. He is officially  a fantasy force even with a weak supporting cast. 

SIT

Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State at California

The way the Pac-12 is shaking out this year, it's tough to truly fear many of the defenses. California is an exception, though. The Golden Bears allow just 3.9 yards per carry with a defense that has carried them to 4-0. Benjamin, meanwhile, has been good but not great through the first four weeks. He averages a pedestrian 3.8 YPC, and while part of that can be attributed to having to face Michigan State in Week 3, racking up 152 yards on 44 carries against Sacramento State and Colorado is not overly encouraging. Depending on your roster, it's at least worth considering benching Benjamin for this matchup.

SEC

START

JaTarvious Whitlow, RB, Auburn vs. Mississippi State

I had my doubts about Whitlow being a true bell cow for this offense coming into the season after he was dinged up with leg and shoulder issues throughout 2018. He looks like a different runner this year, though, and it's a big part of why Auburn's offense is looking like a dangerous, vintage Malzahn attack. 

Whitlow has nearly 60 more attempts than any other Auburn back, and though his YPC is middling at 4.98, his workload helps bolster his overall fantasy production. Mississippi State is proving to be an average defense against the run (4.48 YPC allowed) after losing so much of its production from 2018. Thus, Whitlow will have an easier time running against these Bulldogs than he did in Week 4 running against Texas A&M. 

SIT

Rakeem Boyd, RB, Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M is not a team anyone would want to play coming off a loss like last weekend's, and that bodes poorly for Boyd and the Arkansas attack. Boyd has seen 17 or more carries in each game thus far, but game flow could direct the Hogs away from the run this week as they check in as more than three-touchdown underdogs. Less carries and a tougher matchup against the Aggies' defense that allows less than 3.75 YPC makes this a sit spot for Boyd. 

SUN BELT

START

DK Billingsley, RB, Troy vs. Arkansas State

If you scooped up Billingsley after the B.J. Smith injury, your investment is already starting to pay off. This week could be his best game of the season, though, at least against a Sun Belt opponent. The Red Wolves allow more than 5.0 yards per carry and have surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns. 

Billingsley seems to have the backfield to himself now with no other Troy running back having 20 carries, so he'll be seeing the bulk of the work against an extremely vulnerable Arkansas Stat run defense. 

SIT

Thomas Hennigan, WR, Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina

Did you know that Coastal Carolina is holding opponents to just 147.5 passing yards per game, the top mark in the Sun Belt? Not to say that Appalachian State is in any real danger of losing this game, but it's not going to be a cake walk, either. 

Hennigan is the Mountaineers' leading receiver with 16 grabs for 186 yards and two touchdowns in three games. However, he might not hold onto that distinction for much longer as Corey Sutton is back in the fold and already commanded eight targets in his first game back. Unless you're in a PPR league, this is a week to sit Hennigan.