DraftKings College Football: Week 3 Main Slate

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Published on September 18, 2020

Welcome in to this week's main slate breakdown for DraftKings. Initially we were treated to a 12-gamer that the college DFS community would have been happy with even in a normal year. Unfortunately we've had two major cancellations with North Carolina's game against Charlotte and Baylor's game against Houston both getting postponed for reasons related to COVID-19. We still have the best slate of the year to this point by far even with those cancellations, though. 10 games with several Power 5 teams and plenty of other interesting squads are on the board for this weekend, so let's dive into the offerings.

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Matchup Info

Editor's Note: Several teams are making their season debut this week, hence the zeros for some of the cells in the above table. As more teams get their seasons underway, the data will be more comprehensive and useful.

Slate Overview: The Clemson Dilemma

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Matchup Info

Slate Overview: The Clemson Dilemma

Fading a team of Clemson's ilk always makes me uneasy, but when the odds of the starters playing in the second half are this slim, it feels like a necessary evil. Sinking $9,700 into Trevor Lawrence when he'll likely throw less than 20 passes is suboptimal, as is having Amari Rodgers or Joe Ngata in a high percentage of your lineups. I have some GPP interest in Travis Etienne at $9,200, however. The $700 gap between him and Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard is going to steer the roster percentage away from Etienne and towards Hubbard, who has a much higher carry projection going up against Tulsa. The thing about Etienne is he doesn't need volume to hit value. In the games where Etienne had fewer than 15 carries last season, Etienne averaged 27.2 DK points. A couple of huge outings helped boost that average but at the same time, the Citadel isn't equipped to slow Etienne. Don't instantly look past him when you're filling out your RB spots this weekend.

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback

Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State ($7,600) vs. Tulsa

This is such a good value I almost fear it's a trap. Sanders averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game last year and there's reason to believe he can reach another level. He has his top wideout, Tylan Wallace, back in the fold along with role players like Dillon Stoner and Braydon Johnson. Sanders is also a threat as a rusher after racking up 628 yards on the ground over 139 attempts. On top of all that, Oklahoma State carries the highest implied total on the slate (44.75) in the game with the highest over/under. Now, the Houston/Baylor contest being nixed will likely steer people stacking that game in the direction of this matchup. It may be difficult to fully set yourself apart in a GPP with an Oklahoma State-heavy lineup, but Sanders and company have a high floor in this favorable matchup.

Zach Smith, Tulsa ($5,600) vs. Oklahoma State

I'm considering a lineup construction with both Smith and Sanders and I want exposure to this game and Smith is shockingly far down the board as far as quarterback salaries go. For context, he's listed lower than both of the Clemson backup quarterbacks. Smith has the trust of this coaching staff, too. They let Smith throw it an average of 35.8 times per game last season and he answered the bell with adequate numbers (7.6 YPA, 57.3 completion rate). Those aren't great numbers, but again we're talking about a sub-$6k QB. Smith will, at the very least, be turned loose and even if the efficiency lags, he'll have the volume to compile the necessary stats to hit value. The one major concern here is Oklahoma State's defense, which ranks 8th in the nation in returning production on defense. Meanwhile, Tulsa ranks 4th in the nation in returning offensive production, per Bill Connelly of ESPN.

Jeff Sims, Georgia Tech ($5,300) vs. Central Florida

Another quarterback with way more upside than the salary suggests. Sims was thoroughly impressive in his first career start last week against Florida State, leading the Jackets to victory and racking up 19.5 DK points. He faces a softer matchup this week and won't have the first-game rust to shake off. UCF was strong defensively last season (21st in S&P+) but lost some key pieces.

Sims completed 67.6 percent of his 34 (!) pass attempts last week and added some production on the ground with 13 rushes for 64 yards. With value quarterback options dwindling, Sims is worth a look in a Georgia Tech offense that may be getting its footing in the post-option era.

Other Suggestions:

Grant Wells, Marshall ($6,300) vs. Appalachian State: The Mountaineers present a much tougher test than what Wells faced last time out vs. EKU but Wells could be the next big thing at Marshall. The roster percentage should be low and Wells has the talent and supporting cast to be a difference-maker in Saturday's slate.

Running Back

David Bailey, Boston College ($6,900) at Duke

AJ Dillon leaves behind some huge shoes to fill and there's no guarantee that Boston College is as run-heavy this season now that there is a new coaching staff and a new offense in place. However, running the ball is still Boston College's DNA and Bailey is the clear No.1 in this backfield. Bailey also has a very similar game to Dillon as a physical runner who checks in at 6-foot and 236 pounds with plenty of burst. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 148 attempts in 2019, which was actually better than Dillon's 5.3 YPC. Albeit, Dillon maintained that average on 318 carries.

Bailey will be running behind one of college football's best offensive lines against a Duke defense that allowed 178 rushing yards and two rushing scores to Notre Dame last week.

Even if Boston College moves closer to being a balanced offense, it'll still be a run-first outfit and Bailey stands to pick up where Dillon left off in the Eagle backfield.

Tyjae Spears, Tulane ($6,000) vs. Navy

It's hard to get Navy's season opener out of my mind. The Midshipmen looked so ill-prepared for live contact against BYU in one of the most one-sided games of the season thus far, and even with the bye week to regroup, it's unlikely that the Navy defense is equipped to handle Tulane's ground game. Spears, meanwhile, is a featured part of Tulane's devastating rushing attack that racked up 203 rushing yards at 5.0 YPC against South Alabama. For his own part, Spears had 105 yards on 11 carries. Cameron Carroll saw the second-most carries (10) and punched in two scores, but Spears' explosiveness gives him the nod here when targeting the Tulane backfield.

Other Suggestions

Jerome Ford, Cincinnati ($5,700) vs. Austin Peay: Ford is a big-time recruit by Cincinnati standards, having initially committed to Alabama out of high school. Gerrid Doaks figures to get the start and will see some work, but if Cincinnati pulls away as expected, Ford will get work against an overmatched Guv's defense.
Elijah Mitchell ($5,800) and Trey Ragas ($5,200), Louisiana vs. Georgia State: Louisiana can run the ball on just about anybody, even an allegedly sound Iowa State defense. Ragas carries the lower salary this week despite seeing more carries than Mitchell in Week 2. Georgia State is in trouble here. It ranked 122nd in defensive S&P+ in 2019 and is playing its first game. This could get ugly and the Mitchell- Ragas tandem will make sure of it.
Chris Tyree, Notre Dame ($4,300) vs. South Florida: Freshman rusher saw some work behind Kyren Williams last week with six rushes for 20 yards. That keeps him relatively under the radar this week with Notre Dame going into a favorable matchup against a USF team that is still finding its footing under a new coaching staff. Williams will be the horse Saturday but Tyree is next in line.

Wide Receiver

Keylon Stokes, Tulsa ($5,800) at Oklahoma State

The team leader in targets (105) from 2019 is back for 2020 and should be heavily involved again Saturday. Stokes was efficient despite the high volume last year, averaging a team-best 9.9 YPT and scoring six touchdowns. It's a tough matchup punching up against a Big 12 opponent but the opportunities should be there for Stokes to clear value at his sub-$6K salary. And whole last year is last year, it's worth mentioning that Stokes caught seven of 13 targets for 109 yards and a score against Oklahoma State in 2019. Stokes is a legitimate play either as part of a mini-stack with Smith or just solo.

Shocky Jacques-Louis, Pittsburgh ($4,500) vs Syracuse

North Carolina might have struggled against Syracuse last week, but I attribute that more to North Carolina knocking off the rust than I do to Syracuse having that offense solved. Syracuse is still a suspect squad overall, hence the 21.5-point spread here. Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball on the Orange, with Jacques-Louis serving as the big-play threat. He averaged 9.2 YPT on 38 targets in his final eight games last year and had a 68-yard reception last week. Pitt's offense leans on other options Taysir Mack (when healthy, expected back this week) for target volume while Jacques-Louis is the field-stretcher. Jacques-Louis is the play in tournaments while Mack($6,300) should have a high target floor to be viable in both GPPs and cash games. Jordan Addison is on my fade list even if Mack is sidelined given his 4.4 YPT on eight targets against Austin Peay last week.

Other Suggestions: Bargain Bin Edition

Jaelen Gill, Boston College ($4,400) vs. Duke: The $4,400 shows some respect to Gill's background as a bluechip recruit and time spent at Ohio State before transferring over to BC and switching to receiver from running back. Nonetheless, Gill will get the start in the slot for Boston College's new-look offense. There's plenty of risk attached to playing a Boston College receiver, but we need some high-upside risk to separate our lineups from the pack and Gill has that upside.
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame ($3,400) vs. USF: The freshman tight end is part of Notre Dame's offense already, having commanded five targets in his debut and turning them into three grabs for 38 ayrds. Mayer was a five-star recruit, a rarity for tight ends, and South Florida does not have an answer for the mismatch he presents. He should only be considered if you need to dip into the sub-$3.5K end of the player pool, but if you're desperate, Mayer offers a passable volume floor with splash play upside.
E.J. Williams, Clemson ($3,700) vs. Citadel: Another five-star freshman, Williams is not going to start but could be among the reserves who see heavy playing time in this tune-up game for Clemson. The floor is almost non-existent here but there's a chance that Williams sees some looks from Clemson's talented backup quarterbacks and takes advantage of the overmatched Citadel secondary.