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More ADP Analysis From the Mock Draft Army -- Part 2

It's time to take a look at the rest of the most recent Mock Draft Army ADP taken from a draft done in the middle of last week. There have actually been a few changes since this draft was completed, such as Vernon Wells becoming a Yankee, Kyle Lohse signing with the Brewers, Pablo Sandoval's, elbow issue, David Freese's back, Scott Kazmir and Shelby Miller winning the fifth starter's spot on their respective team, just to name a few. As we move here into the final week of spring training, we'll probably see a number of changes that could skew the overall ADP, but as I've said before, ADP is a guideline, not the gospel. So for what it's worth, let's take a look at the second half of the draft we began the other day.

For a look at the entire draft, click here.

For a look at the last article which covered the ADP from the first half of the draft, click here.

Again, to go through the entire draft would be a bit of overkill so we're taking cross-sections. In today's piece, we will be looking at the ADP from Rounds 13-16 and Rounds 20-23. That will cover a few rounds in the middle where we start to see some of the sleepers rise up and the back-end of the draft where we can dig up some real nice hidden gems who may have the potential to surprise and earn a great value.

Rounds 13-16

PlayerPosTeamDraftedNFBC ADP|PERCENT| Diff
Matt HarveySPNYM181140.19-22.55|PERCENT|
Hiroki KurodaSPNYY182162.76-10.57|PERCENT|
Adam EatonOFARI183218.7819.55|PERCENT|
Anibal SanchezSPDET184183.67-0.18|PERCENT|
Dustin Ackley2BSEA185219.3618.57|PERCENT|
Howie Kendrick2BLAA186147.57-20.66|PERCENT|
Lance LynnSPSTL187190.551.90|PERCENT|
Nick MarkakisOFBAL188174.84-7.00|PERCENT|
J.P. ArencibiaCTOR189220.4616.65|PERCENT|
Dexter FowlerOFCOL190193.962.08|PERCENT|
Rafael BetancourtRPCOL191187.78-1.69|PERCENT|
Alexei RamirezSSCHW192190.11-0.98|PERCENT|
Neil Walker2BPIT193165.91-14.04|PERCENT|
Emilio Bonifacio2BTOR194216.7511.73|PERCENT|
Alcides EscobarSSKC195155.53-20.24|PERCENT|
Manny Machado3BBAL196195.40-0.31|PERCENT|
Bobby ParnellRPNYM197254.4729.17|PERCENT|
Michael CuddyerOFCOL198168.97-14.66|PERCENT|
Brett AndersonSPOAK199164.33-17.42|PERCENT|
Grant BalfourRPOAK200186.91-6.55|PERCENT|
Starling MarteOFPIT201206.782.88|PERCENT|
A.J. BurnettSPPIT202210.604.26|PERCENT|
Jason KubelOFARI203214.145.49|PERCENT|
Steve CishekRPMIA204198.26-2.81|PERCENT|
Alex CobbSPTB205261.0427.34|PERCENT|
Jake PeavySPCHW206123.79-39.91|PERCENT|
Hisahi IwakumaSPSEA207273.4332.09|PERCENT|
Jedd Gyorko3BSD208247.8519.16|PERCENT|
Tim LincecumSPSF209136.22-34.82|PERCENT|
A.J. PierzynskiCTEX210175.50-16.43|PERCENT|
Andrelton SimmonsSSATL211239.1313.33|PERCENT|
Kyuji FujikawaRPCHC212262.2523.70|PERCENT|
Kevin Youkilis3BNYY213226.266.23|PERCENT|
Lorenzo CainOFKC214225.165.21|PERCENT|
Juan PierreOFMIA215238.9011.12|PERCENT|
Josh RutledgeSSCOL216148.46-31.27|PERCENT|
Trevor CahillSPARI217232.917.33|PERCENT|
Brandon LeagueRPLAD218211.66-2.91|PERCENT|
Tim HudsonSPATL219243.8911.37|PERCENT|
Derek HollandSPTEX220256.9616.80|PERCENT|
Jonathan BroxtonRPCIN221223.891.31|PERCENT|
Dan Uggla2BATL222183.08-17.53|PERCENT|
Alexi OgandoRPTEX223221.45-0.70|PERCENT|
Domonic BrownOFPHI224321.3143.44|PERCENT|
Jarrod SaltalamacchiaCBOS225249.1210.72|PERCENT|
Dayan ViciedoOFCHW226206.44-8.65|PERCENT|
Brandon McCarthySPARI227281.9524.21|PERCENT|
Casey JanssenRPTOR228190.74-16.34|PERCENT|
Brandon Moss1BOAK229278.4221.58|PERCENT|
Wade MileySPARI230222.82-3.12|PERCENT|
Ichiro SuzukiOFNYY231174.36-24.52|PERCENT|
Mark Reynolds1BCLE232295.0227.16|PERCENT|
J.J. HardySSBAL233220.02-5.57|PERCENT|
Carlos RuizCPHI234202.67-13.39|PERCENT|
Julio TeheranSPATL235319.1335.80|PERCENT|
Alex AvilaCDET236226.36-4.08|PERCENT|
Jeremy HellicksonSPTB237208.61-11.98|PERCENT|
Leonys MartinOFTEX238316.8633.13|PERCENT|
Jean SeguraSSMIL239240.260.53|PERCENT|
Edwin JacksonSPCHC240276.1315.05|PERCENT|

Rising Up

Domonic Brown, OF PHI (+43.44|PERCENT|) – When you're having the type of spring that Brown is currently having, it's easy to see why he's climbing over 100 spots on the ADP rankings. With a .354 average, seven home runs and 16 RBI, Brown is finally delivering on the potential fantasy owners have been waiting on for a few seasons now. Though technically no official word has been given, it's pretty safe to assume that he's earned himself the starting left field job in Philly and is potentially a very worthwhile pick in fantasy leagues.

Julio Teheran, SP ATL (+35.80|PERCENT|) – While the Braves picked up offense through free agency this past winter, they continue to use their home-grown young pitchers to round out their rotation. Teheran has been on the radar for a couple of seasons now and with him sporting a 1.04 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 26 innings it would appear that he is finally ready. Obviously you can't fully buy into spring numbers but with how well he is pitching this late in the spring when most lineups are emulating Opening Day lineups, you have to be confident in his arm.

Leonys Martin, OF TEX (+33.13|PERCENT|) – He was supposedly manager Ron Washington's first choice for the Rangers center field job, but we all know that the team was more than just a little interested in bringing in Michael Bourn. When that didn't happen, it was just a matter of Martin outplaying Craig Gentry which was not really a tall order. You're not looking at a whole lot of power or any major speed, but if you're trying to round out your team with everyday guys who will find a way to contribute, then Martin deserves a look.

Other notable risers includeHisashi Iwakuma, Alex Cobb, and Bobby Parnell
Falling Down

Jake Peavy, SP CHW (-39.91|PERCENT|) – Obviously you're going to continue seeing starting pitchers taken much lower than some of their ADP rankings as many who participate in these drafts opt to wait on starting pitching. We saw it in the earlier rounds, so watching a guy like Peavy, who most people think overachieved last season anyway, fall in drafts is not unexpected.

Josh Rutledge, SS COL (-31.27|PERCENT|) – Ever since the Rockies have discussed the possibility of starting Nolan Arenado at third base, Rutledge has begun to slip in drafts after being considered a top sleeper for most of the early offseason. Should Arendao win the job, then Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco work as utility infielders and given their abilities, a slow start by Rutledge could open the door for one of them. The leash won't be too short, but it is easy to see a lot of match-up playing happening if things don't open as strong as the team hopes.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF NYY (-24.52|PERCENT|) – There are likely a few reasons that Ichiro dropped as he did in this draft starting with the fact that his overall skills are in an obvious decline. But add that to the fact that steals have become much more plentiful and the Yankees lineup continues to take a beating, he's becoming a lot more average than he is extraordinary. He's still going to be a good source of runs scored and speed, but there's little reason to rush out and grab him.

Other notable fallers:Tim Lincecum, Howard Kendrick, Alcides Escobar

Rounds 20-23

PlayerPosTeamDraftedNFBC ADP|PERCENT| Diff
Matt GarzaSPCHC271232.38-14.25|PERCENT|
Nolan Arenado3BCOL272409.1850.43|PERCENT|
Andy PettitteSPNYY273305.5411.92|PERCENT|
Trevor BauerSPCLE274313.3314.35|PERCENT|
Scott BakerSPCHC275407.4648.17|PERCENT|
Rick PorcelloSPDET276440.6259.64|PERCENT|
Shaun MarcumSPNYM277276.72-0.10|PERCENT|
Ryan MadsonRPLAA278254.63-8.41|PERCENT|
Chad BillingsleySPLAD279358.2828.42|PERCENT|
Aaron HicksOFMIN280356.0627.16|PERCENT|
Andrew CashnerRPSD281311.6510.91|PERCENT|
Jose VerasRPHOU282304.047.82|PERCENT|
Robert BrantleyCMIA283315.1011.34|PERCENT|
Michael BrantleyOFCLE284302.866.64|PERCENT|
Hyun-Jin RyuSPLAD285269.65-5.39|PERCENT|
Yonder Alonso1BSD286265.26-7.25|PERCENT|
Adam Lind1BTOR287305.486.44|PERCENT|
Tyler FlowersCCHW288321.4211.60|PERCENT|
Chris IannettaCLAA289300.463.97|PERCENT|
Billy HamiltonSSCIN290288.01-0.69|PERCENT|
Drew SmylySPDET291343.8318.15|PERCENT|
A.J. EllisCLAD292289.00-1.03|PERCENT|
Rajai DavisOFTOR293309.995.80|PERCENT|
Kelly Johnson2BTB294316.227.56|PERCENT|
Bud NorrisSPHOU295338.8714.87|PERCENT|
Hiroyuki NakajimaSSOAK296333.2012.57|PERCENT|
Wei-Yin ChenSPBAL297316.946.71|PERCENT|
Mitch Moreland1BTEX298318.616.92|PERCENT|
Peter BourjosOFLAA299298.24-0.25|PERCENT|
Ricky RomeroSPTOR300328.669.55|PERCENT|
Wade DavisRPKC301330.229.71|PERCENT|
James McDonaldSPPIT302314.804.24|PERCENT|
Eduardo Nunez3BNYY303358.3518.27|PERCENT|
Ross DetwilerSPWAS304349.7715.06|PERCENT|
Stephen DrewSSBOS305300.01-1.64|PERCENT|
Joe BlantonSPLAA306386.0426.16|PERCENT|
Jhonny PeraltaSSDET307306.04-0.31|PERCENT|
Brian MatuszRPBAL308619.95101.28|PERCENT|
Clay BuchholzSPBOS309298.96-3.25|PERCENT|
Chris TillmanSPBAL310315.801.87|PERCENT|
Kurt SuzukiCWAS311359.5515.61|PERCENT|
Oscar TaverasOFSTL312303.11-2.85|PERCENT|
Gordon Beckham2BCHW313306.73-2.00|PERCENT|
Dylan BuundySPBAL314343.579.42|PERCENT|
Jason HammelSPBAL315279.61-11.23|PERCENT|
Chris Nelson3BCOL316326.923.46|PERCENT|
Matt Adams1BSTL317491.6055.08|PERCENT|
Zach McAllisterSPCLE318468.1147.20|PERCENT|
Jason VargasSPLAA319309.87-2.86|PERCENT|
Carlos MarmolRPCHC320242.43-24.24|PERCENT|
Tyler Colvin1BCOL321270.25-15.81|PERCENT|
Jon JayOFSTL322278.31-13.57|PERCENT|
Jason CastroCHOU323338.494.80|PERCENT|
Daniel Murphy2BNYM324271.27-16.27|PERCENT|
Joaquin BenoitRPDET325381.7117.45|PERCENT|
Tyler GreeneSSHOU326405.0124.24|PERCENT|
Justin MaxwellOFHOU327316.15-3.32|PERCENT|
Kelvin HerreraRPKC328427.1230.22|PERCENT|
A.J. GriffinSPOAK329290.25-11.78|PERCENT|
Ervin SantanaSPKC330380.7215.37|PERCENT|

Welcome to the Party

Nolan Arenado, 3B COL (+50.43) – As already stated above, Arenado is now very much in the mix for the starting third base job. Despite his struggles at Double-A last year, it's hard to ignore his .319 average with four home runs and 12 RBI, especially when his primary competitors for the job are struggling at the dish.

Kelvin Herrera, RP KC (+30.32|PERCENT|) – It's not just this draft, but others as well, where we've seen Herrera go with a late-round pick. Royals closer Greg Holland is struggling this spring and has seen a decrease in velocity. So while Holland is still going in his normal spot in most drafts, owners are hedging their bets with late pick-up of Herrera, the handcuff.

Aaron Hicks, OF MIN (+27.16|PERCENT|) – He was just announced as the Twins starting center fielder, and while this draft took place before the announcement, the handwriting was already on the wall. The speedy 23-year old is likely to be the Twins leadoff hitter which gives him even more value as the uptick we'll see in his projected stolen bases and runs scored should be significant.

The Forgotten

Carlos Marmol, RP CHC (-24.24|PERCENT|) – You won't find anyone from this draft to thinking that Marmol will hold the closer's job all year, and you probably won't find anyone outside of this draft thinking that way either. He's fine to pick up late in your draft so long as you also grab Kyuji Fujikawa so you technically have the closer for the Cubs. But Marmol should be rendered useless in fantasy leagues once he loses the job.

The other drops you see here really aren't significant enough to be concerned. For a lot of these players it's about personal preference of how you want to round out your bench. Some have full-time jobs but just aren't productive in the fantasy realm while others are strictly part-timers whose future depends on the health and talents of others.  Sift through and find some that you like, but unless you read a report that assures you of both full-time at-bats and increased productivity, then you can relax on them.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].