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Recent ADP Trends in the Top 100

Each day, as we inch closer and closer to Opening Night on March 31st, the tension just gets thicker and thicker. Most leagues like to wait until the last minute to draft so if you're in more than one league, this has to be a busy time for you. But it's crunch time and you need to make sure your skills are sharp and you have as much information as you can. Some might frown upon being over-prepared, but personally, that means you're just loaded with more options and are better skilled at making changes on the fly. You're only doing yourself a disservice if you think you can't learn anything more.

For example, let's talk about the top 100 players and where they are going in drafts. Sure, those first three picks are complete no-brainers, possibly even the top five. But where you go from there and who you take with your second, third and fourth picks will push you into one direction or another. You just need to make sure that you've thought out most scenarios and you have a counter-attack for anything thrown at you. Nothing worse than seeing that guy, the one who is completely rigid in his choices and game plan, stare at his laptop like a deer in the headlights because three of the four guys he was hoping to take early have already come off the board.

So with that, we're going to take a look at the top 100 picks, somewhere between seven and nine rounds depending on how many teams are in your league, and check in with who is rising and who is falling. Always key to know the trends. We'll also look at some outliers when we compare the ADP data from the NFBC to that of Mock Draft Central.

RankPlayerTeamPosCurrent ADP1 Week AgoTrendMDC ADP|PERCENT|Diff
1Miguel CabreraDet3B1.851.944.86|PERCENT|2.01-8.65|PERCENT|
2Mike TroutLAAOF2.032.030.00|PERCENT|3.23-59.11|PERCENT|
3Ryan BraunMilOF2.242.14-4.46|PERCENT|1.5729.91|PERCENT|
4Robinson CanoNYY2B4.704.56-2.98|PERCENT|7.49-59.36|PERCENT|
5Matt KempLADOF5.705.923.86|PERCENT|3.8632.28|PERCENT|
6Andrew McCutchenPitOF6.046.090.83|PERCENT|5.626.95|PERCENT|
7Albert PujolsLAA1B7.507.37-1.73|PERCENT|6.848.80|PERCENT|
8Joey VottoCin1B8.518.560.59|PERCENT|10.76-26.44|PERCENT|
9Carlos GonzalezColOF9.9310.253.22|PERCENT|10.68-7.55|PERCENT|
10Prince FielderDet1B9.969.93-0.30|PERCENT|14.57-46.29|PERCENT|
11Giancarlo StantonMiaOF14.5814.861.92|PERCENT|15.30-4.94|PERCENT|
12Josh HamiltonLAAOF14.9114.53-2.55|PERCENT|23.46-57.34|PERCENT|
13Stephen StrasburgWasSP15.2814.55-4.78|PERCENT|32.64-113.61|PERCENT|
14Troy TulowitzkiColSS15.3015.400.65|PERCENT|21.66-41.57|PERCENT|
15Justin VerlanderDetSP15.4515.13-2.07|PERCENT|23.15-49.84|PERCENT|
16Buster PoseySFC16.5515.78-4.65|PERCENT|12.4125.02|PERCENT|
17Clayton KershawLADSP16.7416.40-2.03|PERCENT|16.610.78|PERCENT|
18Jose BautistaTorOF19.3319.340.05|PERCENT|9.0952.97|PERCENT|
19Justin UptonAtlOF20.1820.994.01|PERCENT|10.8846.09|PERCENT|
20Hanley RamirezLADSS20.2019.96-1.19|PERCENT|34.24-69.50|PERCENT|
21Evan LongoriaTB3B20.3720.470.49|PERCENT|31.96-56.90|PERCENT|
22Adrian BeltreTex3B20.7720.54-1.11|PERCENT|17.0417.96|PERCENT|
23Jose ReyesTorSS21.2321.621.84|PERCENT|15.5026.99|PERCENT|
24Bryce HarperWasOF24.5326.959.87|PERCENT|15.5036.81|PERCENT|
25David WrightNYM3B26.3125.00-4.98|PERCENT|28.84-9.62|PERCENT|
26Dustin PedroiaBos2B26.4926.03-1.74|PERCENT|36.43-37.52|PERCENT|
27Jason HeywardAtlOF27.8728.341.69|PERCENT|26.973.23|PERCENT|
28Edwin EncarnacionTor1B27.8927.25-2.29|PERCENT|26.036.67|PERCENT|
29David PriceTBSP29.5629.670.37|PERCENT|39.85-34.81|PERCENT|
30Adam JonesBalOF29.7530.442.32|PERCENT|23.8419.87|PERCENT|
31Ian KinslerTex2B31.1430.93-0.67|PERCENT|40.65-30.54|PERCENT|
32Adrian GonzalezLAD1B33.8533.69-0.47|PERCENT|30.998.45|PERCENT|
33Jacoby EllsburyBosOF34.4334.23-0.58|PERCENT|45.45-32.01|PERCENT|
34Ryan ZimmermanWas3B35.7935.06-2.04|PERCENT|41.99-17.32|PERCENT|
35Starlin CastroChCSS36.4636.640.49|PERCENT|38.55-5.73|PERCENT|
36Yoenis CespedesOakOF37.8939.133.27|PERCENT|48.51-28.03|PERCENT|
37Felix HernandezSeaSP39.5938.98-1.54|PERCENT|48.12-21.55|PERCENT|
38Chase HeadleySD3B39.8637.91-4.89|PERCENT|45.03-12.97|PERCENT|
39B.J. UptonAtlOF41.4142.302.15|PERCENT|23.7642.62|PERCENT|
40Jay BruceCinOF42.0042.721.71|PERCENT|28.7331.60|PERCENT|
41Cole HamelsPhiSP42.3742.410.09|PERCENT|47.59-12.32|PERCENT|
42Billy ButlerKC1B44.5443.88-1.48|PERCENT|38.3613.88|PERCENT|
43Ian DesmondWasSS45.1444.64-1.11|PERCENT|91.58-102.88|PERCENT|
44Matt CainSFSP45.7645.980.48|PERCENT|66.92-46.24|PERCENT|
45Matt HollidayStLOF46.3446.911.23|PERCENT|55.53-19.83|PERCENT|
46Paul GoldschmidtAri1B46.5747.852.75|PERCENT|22.1852.37|PERCENT|
47Craig KimbrelAtlRP47.7047.980.59|PERCENT|29.4138.34|PERCENT|
48Cliff LeePhiSP48.8249.280.94|PERCENT|39.4919.11|PERCENT|
49Ben ZobristTBOF49.2249.360.28|PERCENT|71.46-45.18|PERCENT|
50Aramis RamirezMil3B49.3748.22-2.33|PERCENT|52.28-5.89|PERCENT|
51Allen CraigStL1B49.7650.220.92|PERCENT|36.6226.41|PERCENT|
52Gio GonzalezWasSP54.5855.962.53|PERCENT|76.20-39.61|PERCENT|
53Jered WeaverLAASP54.9254.41-0.93|PERCENT|55.39-0.86|PERCENT|
54Aaron HillAri2B57.1256.81-0.54|PERCENT|74.38-30.22|PERCENT|
55Jimmy RollinsPhiSS57.2756.76-0.89|PERCENT|104.26-82.05|PERCENT|
56Yu DarvishTexSP57.6659.663.47|PERCENT|57.081.01|PERCENT|
57Joe MauerMinC57.9458.911.67|PERCENT|54.366.18|PERCENT|
58Jason KipnisCle2B58.1559.021.50|PERCENT|53.807.48|PERCENT|
59Zack GreinkeLADSP59.3355.78-5.98|PERCENT|107.01-80.36|PERCENT|
60Madison BumgarnerSFSP60.4761.111.06|PERCENT|73.01-20.74|PERCENT|
61Brandon PhillipsCin2B63.4163.800.62|PERCENT|76.18-20.14|PERCENT|
62Carlos SantanaCleC65.4665.33-0.20|PERCENT|48.1426.46|PERCENT|
63Curtis GrandersonNYYOF65.8553.41-18.89|PERCENT|109.68-66.56|PERCENT|
64Desmond JenningsTBOF68.0668.911.25|PERCENT|81.73-20.09|PERCENT|
65Adam WainwrightStLSP68.4370.953.68|PERCENT|69.78-1.97|PERCENT|
66Yadier MolinaStLC69.7069.700.00|PERCENT|41.3040.75|PERCENT|
67Chris SaleCWSSP69.7269.950.33|PERCENT|87.62-25.67|PERCENT|
68Alex RiosCWSOF69.7570.070.46|PERCENT|77.68-11.37|PERCENT|
69R.A. DickeyTorSP70.4168.49-2.73|PERCENT|89.68-27.37|PERCENT|
70Brett LawrieTor3B72.5070.11-3.30|PERCENT|88.07-21.48|PERCENT|
71Max ScherzerDetSP72.9275.203.13|PERCENT|92.93-27.44|PERCENT|
72Shin-Soo ChooCinOF74.3075.161.16|PERCENT|81.96-10.31|PERCENT|
73Victor MartinezDetC74.5275.331.09|PERCENT|117.39-57.53|PERCENT|
74CC SabathiaNYYSP75.5075.12-0.50|PERCENT|102.19-35.35|PERCENT|
75Kris MedlenAtlSP75.7375.37-0.48|PERCENT|76.03-0.40|PERCENT|
76Freddie FreemanAtl1B76.2378.162.53|PERCENT|58.1123.77|PERCENT|
77Matt WietersBalC77.3577.33-0.03|PERCENT|54.4529.61|PERCENT|
78Michael BournCleOF78.4978.990.64|PERCENT|71.089.44|PERCENT|
79James ShieldsKCSP79.5679.990.54|PERCENT|73.967.04|PERCENT|
80Wilin RosarioColC80.1580.820.84|PERCENT|48.9938.88|PERCENT|
81Pablo SandovalSF3B83.5881.96-1.94|PERCENT|138.45-65.65|PERCENT|
82Aroldis ChapmanCinRP84.3185.731.68|PERCENT|129.84-54.00|PERCENT|
83Elvis AndrusTexSS86.7885.78-1.15|PERCENT|146.71-69.06|PERCENT|
84Alex GordonKCOF86.8389.473.04|PERCENT|61.7428.90|PERCENT|
85Yovani GallardoMilSP89.5690.681.25|PERCENT|110.79-23.70|PERCENT|
86Roy HalladayPhiSP90.4986.28-4.65|PERCENT|96.68-6.84|PERCENT|
87Mat LatosCinSP90.6591.581.03|PERCENT|118.82-31.08|PERCENT|
88Jonathan PapelbonPhiRP90.7090.970.30|PERCENT|74.3118.07|PERCENT|
89Johnny CuetoCinSP91.8192.380.62|PERCENT|105.59-15.01|PERCENT|
90Austin JacksonDetOF92.1294.802.91|PERCENT|96.61-4.87|PERCENT|
91Jordan ZimmermannWasSP93.0893.160.09|PERCENT|112.96-21.36|PERCENT|
92Jose AltuveHou2B93.8294.160.36|PERCENT|99.88-6.46|PERCENT|
93Anthony RizzoChC1B93.9095.761.98|PERCENT|51.7044.94|PERCENT|
94Eric HosmerKC1B95.7497.041.36|PERCENT|76.5020.10|PERCENT|
95Jason MotteStLRP96.4196.930.54|PERCENT|73.3423.93|PERCENT|
96Matt MooreTBSP96.6897.640.99|PERCENT|137.84-42.57|PERCENT|
97Miguel MonteroAriC96.8796.47-0.41|PERCENT|58.7339.37|PERCENT|
98Asdrubal CabreraCleSS97.2896.67-0.63|PERCENT|130.22-33.86|PERCENT|
99Martin PradoAriOF98.70100.581.90|PERCENT|158.96-61.05|PERCENT|
100Mark TrumboLAAOF99.6499.39-0.25|PERCENT|72.0327.71|PERCENT|

First off, the most important trend to watch is the pick distribution here in the top 100. This allows you to see what position is most likely to thin out first and which ones you'll be able to wait on until later in your draft.

Breakdown
Catcher:8|PERCENT|
First Base:11|PERCENT|
Second Base:7|PERCENT|
Third Base:9|PERCENT|
Shortstop:8|PERCENT|
Outfield:27|PERCENT|
Starting Pitcher:26|PERCENT|
Relief Pitcher:4|PERCENT|

And based on this, clearly the run on outfielders is something to keep in mind. With such a higher percentage relative to the depth found at the position, it might not be a position you want to wait too long to fill if your starting roster requires five or six. Three? Sure, wait all you want. But more than that and you're going to need to make sure you make an early move. And while starters also seem to have a high percentage, remember just how much deeper the position is than the outfield. You can still wait and build a successful rotation without having to reach too high for an ace.  

As for actual ADP trends, the movement that we are seeing within the NFBC data is fairly minimal – not more than a couple of picks' worth, in fact. Your biggest percentage increase is found in Bryce Harper (+9.87|PERCENT|) but when it comes to actually pick position, his increase comes to about two and a half spots in the rankings and that's all. With that being the biggest increase, you can see in the rest of the risers, no one is moving up more than that. The stability is actually pretty helpful as it leaves few surprises and the consistency is more conducive to setting up multiple game plans based on who you pick first. You'll be able to gauge, with pretty strong accuracy, who will be available to you when it comes to your next few picks and which direction makes the most sense for you as you move through the first few rounds.

As for fallers, your biggest is an easy one – Curtis Granderson (-18.89|PERCENT|) – who has now seen his ADP drop by a dozen picks. It's a pretty easy one to understand as he isn't expected to return until the middle to end of May. From there we've got Zack Greinke who has seen his ADP drop 5.98-percent, or roughly four and a half picks. He's actually been on a downward trend for the last few weeks as he continues to sort out his elbow issues. Earlier reports basically said that he was still feeling a twinge and that the Dodgers were planning on taking it very slow with him considering the level of investment they made. However, you can probably expect him to level of again as he returned to the mound Wednesday and tossed four sharp innings of one-hit ball.

The place where you're going to see the biggest swings is when you move back and forth between ADP data of NFBC and that of Mock Draft Central. This is where you see the stark differences between the consistent ADP of a single style league and the fluctuations that occur when you add in the data of numerous other leagues of varying styles. While Mock Draft Central offers five different styles of draft, each one is customizable which creates several different permutations. So let's actually look at the biggest differences between the two main sets of data.

MDC Outliers

The biggest outlier is found in Stephen Strasburg whose 32.64 ADP at MDC is a 113.61-percent drop from the 15.28 ADP in NFBC drafts. The idea of waiting on pitching is obviously much more prevalent over at MDC and while a guy like Strasburg is basically considered late first-round material in the NFBC, he apparently doesn't go for another round or two, depending on how many teams are in the league. One of the reasons that this might be the case is the level of competition. You have to assume that most, if not all, of your competition in the NFBC understands the depth of pitching as well and that you're all probably going for the same late-round sleepers. Therefore, perhaps a grab of an ace or two earlier on can give you a slight edge. Personally, I think you slight yourself on offense, but that's just one man's opinion here.

The difference in ADP you see in Ian Desmond is, to me, a bit of a head-scratcher still. He goes so unbelievable early in the NFBC (~45th) but doesn't get taken until roughly the 91st pick over at MDC. The difference is actually staggering. Is there just a lack of belief in Desmond by so many or is position scarcity such an important factor in the NFBC that a guy like Desmond gets rushed onto a roster? I'm not the biggest believer in Desmond's ability to repeat his 2012 totals, so I side more with the MDC drafters, but still the difference is out of whack.

Other big fallers you see include: Jimmy Rollins (-82.05|PERCENT|), Zack Greinke (-80.36|PERCENT|), Hanley Ramirez, (-69.50|PERCENT|) and Elvis Andrus (-69.02|PERCENT|)

Conversely, the ADP for Paul Goldschmidt on MDC is significantly higher (+52.37|PERCENT|) than it is in the NFBC. While the position is deep, many believe that Goldy is the real deal and he'll not only build on his power, but also maintain the speed numbers. I believe in his ability to routinely club 30-plus homers, and from the first base position, that's all I really care about. Yes the speed is a bonus, but would I look at him differently if he stole two bases instead of 12? Probably not.

Another up and coming, power-hitting first baseman showing a major increase is Anthony Rizzo whose ADP on MDC is 51.70 while in the NFBC is sits all the way down on 93.90. It's actually a combination of the position depth viewed by NFBC participants and the masses' desire to be the one who discovers the next big thing.

Other risers include: Justin Upton (+46.09|PERCENT|),B.J. Upton (+42.62|PERCENT|),  Yadier Molina (+40.75) and Miguel Montero (+39.37|PERCENT|)

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].