Jonathan Papelbon

After failing to reach 30 saves in 2013, Papelbon finished with 39 saves last season for a pretty bad Phillies team. Papelbon is no longer the dominant force that he once was while closing games out for the Red Sox. He has seen his velocity drop from the mid-90s to the low-90s over the last four seasons, yet has maintained a solid strikeout rate while keeping the walks in check. Further, he has been able to keep the ball in the park despite a moderate groundball rate. The Phillies would like to trade Papelbon this winter, but finding a taker has been difficult due to his reputation as a clubhouse cancer -- though his fellow relief pitchers often call him an excellent mentor -- and his large salary. He will close if he opens the year back with the Phillies, but will be a strong candidate to be moved by the trade deadline. Ken Giles is next in line for saves and is a worthwhile grab for any Papbelon owner.

Papelbon failed to rack up at least 30 saves last season for the first time in his career as a closer. Some of that can be attributed to the lack of opportunities from a Phillies team that struggled last season, but he also blew seven saves. His surface numbers were solid, but there are signs of decline that raise red flags moving forward. Papelbon's fastball velocity dropped to 92 mph last season which was a 1.8-mph drop from 2013 and a 3.0-mph drop from 2012. His K/9 of 8.3 was the lowest it has been since his first full season in Boston, and the first time it dipped below double digits since 2006. He did improve his walk rate, however, which allowed his K/BB ratio to basically hold steady from last season. Papelbon can still be effective with the lower strikeout rate, but it makes him a riskier investment this season as his margin of error has decreased with diminished stuff. There was mention that a minor hip injury suffered during the season could be to blame for the dip in velocity last year, but scouts were questioning his stuff during spring training. The safer approach in fantasy leagues may be to let others draft Papelbon based on his previous reputation and focus instead on closers with stronger profiles that are not quite as risky.

Papelbon racked up 38 saves in his first season with the Phillies. He maintained an excellent strikeout rate, but did see his walk rate creep up a bit last season. That is nitpicking though, as Papelbon still posted an excellent 5.11 K/BB ratio. He remains an elite option at closer.

Papelbon returned to form last year after a 2010 season that saw him walk more batters than ever, leading to a career-worst 3.90 ERA. In 2011, he reduced his walks, struck out a career-high 87, and saved 31 games -- the sixth straight season with more than 30 saves. That kind of consistency was rewarded with a four-year, $50 million deal with the Phillies to become their closer. It's another ideal situation for Papelbon, pitching to save games for starters like Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Papelbon is an elite closer who has proved to be someone capable of the spotlight.

Statistically speaking, Papelbon had his worst season as a closer in 2010, posting career highs in walks, homers, WHIP, runs allowed and blown saves. That said, he still saved 37 games and has averaged 37.5 saves per year the last five seasons. He didn't throw his secondary pitches (split-fingered fastball and slider) last season with much consistency, forcing him to rely on his four-seam fastball, a straighter offering that he struggled to command. He's in his final year before he hits the free-agent market, and the Red Sox are expected to let him walk next winter. They have Daniel Bard waiting in the wings to close, plus the Red Sox signed Bobby Jenks in December. Still, we expect Papelbon to be Boston's closer come Opening Day barring a trade.

A fourth consecutive season of 35-plus saves looks good on Papelbon's resume, but changes to his delivery caused him to struggle with his mechanics. The delivery changes are designed to make him use his legs more instead of putting stress on the arm. However, he issued 24 walks in 68 innings, causing some of those heart-attack saves we hadn’t seen in his first three seasons as Boston’s closer. In addition to the walks, hitters were jumping on his first-pitch strikes and making better contact against him. Nonetheless, Papelbon's results were nearly as impressive as they’ve always been, and he returns as one of the game’s top closers.

Papelbon continued his run as one of the game's best closers in 2008, converting 41 saves while pitching a career-high 69.1 innings. The innings are significant because Papelbon was babied somewhat in 2007 following a shoulder injury in 2006. The organization is still very cognizant of pitch counts, innings and appearances but the heightened scrutiny of Papelbon's usage was less of an issue in 2008. A healthy Papelbon will return to Boston's closer role in 2009.

The Red Sox were going to make Papelbon a starter in 2007, but were forced to shift him to closer after nobody emerged with the job in spring training. Good thing. Papelbon was one of the game's best closers. And the Red Sox were judicious in their use of Papelbon, whose rookie season was cut short by a shoulder injury. He had an 84:15 K:BB ratio in just 58.1 innings, 10 less innings than he pitched in 2006. He's Boston's closer for the next few years.

Papelbon is one of baseball's bigger mysteries heading into 2007. He had an outstanding rookie year as closer, but after the season the Red Sox announced he'd move into the rotation in 2007. What we do know is that Papelbon had a stellar 2006 in every statistical category before injuring his shoulder late in the season. Opponents batted .167 against him with an OBP of .210. If he can even approach these numbers as a starter, he will become an immediate Cy Young contender. In the rotation in the minors, he allowed slightly more than seven hits per nine innings, while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine. Provided he is fully recovered from his shoulder injury, we see Papelbon as a solid No. 2 or 3 starter for Boston.

Papelbon, who projects to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, emerged as an important member of Boston's bullpen in 2005, eventually landing in the setup role after harnessing his high 90s fastball. He closed out the season with a 1.35 ERA in 13 1/3 September innings and may have to start the season in that role because there's a lot of competition for the starting rotation. The Red Sox have been shopping Matt Clement, but are finding clubs more interested in Bronson Arroyo. Either one could be with another club when the 2006 season starts. And David Wells is a lock to be traded at some point. These moves will open up a spot in the rotation for Papelbon.

Papelbon was converted to a starter after Boston drafted him out of Mississippi State in the fourth round of the 2003 draft. And there can be no fault-finding with the season he posted with Single-A Sarasota, with his strikeouts jumping from the page. At 6-4, 220 pounds, he has a good pitcher's body -- some say like Roger Clemens -- and projects as a front-line starter. It's unlikely he makes an appearance with Boston in 2005, but could be ready by 2006.