This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
The biggest baseball story in recent memory occurred this week, as we all awoke Sunday to the news of Jose Fernandez's tragic passing in a boating accident. You don't have to be a Miami Marlins fan to appreciate how great of a player he was – on and off the field – in his all-too-brief career. Most recently, I saw Fernandez dominate Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers with seven shutout innings and 14 strikeouts. This is just an incalculable loss.
As for Regan's Rumblings, the column will take a hiatus after this week as we approach the playoffs and go full steam ahead in the NFL. This week, we will again take a look toward 2017 and dive into this year's free agent class. It's among the weakest I can recall in recent years, particularly in the starting pitching area. Let's look at each position, see where some of these guys may end up, and what the associated fantasy impact might be.
Catcher
Top Guy: Matt Wieters (BAL)
This would have been Wilson Ramos (more on him in a minute) if not for his unfortunate ACL injury, but Wieters' price tag may very well have gone up. Wieters has been a disappointment for the most part in his career, but he's a solid defender and is relatively young at age 30. This year, Wieters is batting .243/.303/.402 with 15 homers, but since 2012 he's seen his BB% drop from 10.1% to 7% and at this point, it's tough to
The biggest baseball story in recent memory occurred this week, as we all awoke Sunday to the news of Jose Fernandez's tragic passing in a boating accident. You don't have to be a Miami Marlins fan to appreciate how great of a player he was – on and off the field – in his all-too-brief career. Most recently, I saw Fernandez dominate Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers with seven shutout innings and 14 strikeouts. This is just an incalculable loss.
As for Regan's Rumblings, the column will take a hiatus after this week as we approach the playoffs and go full steam ahead in the NFL. This week, we will again take a look toward 2017 and dive into this year's free agent class. It's among the weakest I can recall in recent years, particularly in the starting pitching area. Let's look at each position, see where some of these guys may end up, and what the associated fantasy impact might be.
Catcher
Top Guy: Matt Wieters (BAL)
This would have been Wilson Ramos (more on him in a minute) if not for his unfortunate ACL injury, but Wieters' price tag may very well have gone up. Wieters has been a disappointment for the most part in his career, but he's a solid defender and is relatively young at age 30. This year, Wieters is batting .243/.303/.402 with 15 homers, but since 2012 he's seen his BB% drop from 10.1% to 7% and at this point, it's tough to foresee anything close to the .290-30-100 guy we thought he'd be as a prospect. I would expect him to land a five-year deal with a team other than the Astros. Chace Sisco reached Triple-A last year after batting .320/.404/.422 in Double-A, so he should be up at some point in 2017.
Prediction: Wieters signs a five-year, $70-million deal with the Braves.
Other Tier 1: Wilson Ramos (WAS)
Ramos broke out to the tune of .307/.354/.496, but as mentioned above, he's now out for an extended period with a torn ACL – until June of next year, to be exact. It's a bit troubling that this is the second time (2012) that he's torn the same ACL, leaving his future ability to stay behind the plate in question. Catchers with his bat are a very rare commodity, so multi-year offers still could be coming his way.
Prediction: Ramos signs an incentive-laden three-year deal to remain in Washington.
The rest: Jason Castro (HOU), Nick Hundley (COL), Kurt Suzuki (MIN)
First Base
Top Guy: Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)
Encarnacion will hit the open market at age 33 and should be good for another few seasons of 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBI. Everyone seems to have him headed to Boston to "replace" David Ortiz, but expect the Blue Jays to be just as aggressive. Yoenis Cespedes may land the biggest contract in free agency given his age, but Encarnacion's bat looks to be the "safest".
Prediction: Edwin re-signs with the Blue Jays for five years at $120 million.
Other Tier 1: None
The rest: Eric Thames (Korea), Mitch Moreland (TEX), Brandon Moss (STL), Mike Napoli (CLE), Logan Morrison (TB), Steve Pearce (BAL)
Thames is a pretty interesting case. The former big leaguer was the KBO MVP in 2015 after batting .381/.497/.790 with 47 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Even at 60% of those numbers, Thames would be a very valuable fantasy commodity. This year was much of the same - .317/.425/.676 with 40 homers and 13 stolen bases. He's certain to get some offers to come back to the U.S. and makes for an interesting sleeper option if he indeed returns.
Pearce hit .288/.374/.492 in 85 games before hurting his elbow, but he turns 34 in April and has yet to top 338 at-bats in a season. Throw out 2015, though, and Pearce has shown he can hit when healthy, so a team that loses out on the likes of Encarnacion could give Pearce a two-year deal to play first base and/or DH. He's even played some second base, but it's tough to see a team talking themselves into playing him there on a regular basis.
Second Base
Top Guy: Neil Walker (NYM)
Back surgery limited Walker to 113 games this year, but they were productive - .282/.347/.476 with 23 home runs and a career-high .823 OPS. Walker is expected to be 100% for Spring Training, and after just turning 31 last month, he should be able to land a three-year deal this winter given the lack of second base talent on the market.
Prediction: Walker signs a three-year $40 million deal with the Angels. The Mets go with an infield of Lucas Duda, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and (fingers crossed) David Wright.
Other Tier 1: None
The rest: Chase Utley (LAD), Chris Coghlan (CHC)
The Dodgers seems to love Utley's leadership and "grit" (did I really write that?), so I'd expect him back in Los Angeles. Coghlan has hit a surprising .271/.403/.417 since coming over from the A's in June, but it's tough to see some team overpaying for his services. I'd expect him back in Chicago as a valuable bench bat next year unless some team gets desperate and thinks he can be an everyday player.
Shortstop
Top Guy: Erick Aybar (ATL)
When Aybar is the top guy available, you know shortstop is an alarmingly thin position. Aybar is batting just .242/.302/.317 with three homers and three stolen bases. He has some defensive versatility, so he'll get a guaranteed contract, but actual fantasy value will remain elusive.
Prediction: Aybar signs a one-year, $1 million contract somewhere in the majors.
Other Tier 1: None
The rest: Alexei Ramirez (TB), Andres Blanco (PHI)
Nothing else to see here.
Third Base
Top Guy: Justin Turner (LAD)
The Dodgers took a flier on Turner after he was non-tendered by the Mets after the 2013 season, and it's proven to be one of the better non-tender pickups in recent years. Turner has played in a career-high 147 games in 2016, batting .274/.338/.495 with career highs in home runs (27) and RBI (89). He's considered one of the leaders of the team, so the Dodgers will certainly look to bring him back, but as we've seen with Zack Greinke, they will likely not exceed contract parameters that they are not comfortable with.
Prediction: Turner re-signs with the Dodgers for four years and $60 million. The Giants will also have interest.
Other Tier 1: None
The rest: Aaron Hill (BOS), Luis Valbuena (HOU)
If you're in the market for a third baseman this winter and don't end up with Turner, your Plan B is likely going to be a trade or promotion a prospect to fill the gap. Hill has hit a decent .266/.337/.384 with 10 homers in 372 at-bats, so he could be a decent stopgap for a team that's grooming a third baseman of the future. Valbuena, meanwhile, offers left-handed power and has a .357 OBP. He could very well wind up with a starting third base job, perhaps in San Francisco or with the Dodgers.
Outfield
Top Guy: Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)
Cespedes missed time last month with a quad injury, but it's been another solid season for the Mets outfielder, as he's batting .283/.357/.541 with 31 home runs. Cespedes seems to be a lock to opt out of the final two years of his contract in a thin free agent class. It's tough to see the Mets letting him go, but the bidding should be fierce for his services.
Prediction: Cespedes re-ups with the Mets for five years and $130 million.
Other Tier 1: Mark Trumbo (BAL), Jose Bautista (TOR), Ian Desmond (TEX), Dexter Fowler (CHC)
The rest: Josh Reddick (LAD), Michael Saunders (TOR), Matt Holliday (STL), Jon Jay (SD), Carlos Gomez (TEX), Carlos Beltran (TEX), Matt Joyce (PIT), Colby Rasmus (HOU), Rajai Davis (CLE)
There's definitely some talent here beyond Cespedes, though a lot of these guys come with questions.
Let's look briefly at each:
Trumbo – He's likely to stay in the AL due to defensive limitations and will never hit for a high BA, but 45 home-run guys don't grow on trees. Seems likely to hit .250 with 35-40 home runs wherever he lands.
Bautista – So much for that five-year deal Bautista was seeking. He's been brutal defensively for a couple years, and now the offense hasn't been there (.235/.363/.453). With a 16.3% BB%, he still has his plate discipline, but knee and toe injuries have limited his counting stats and his BA has cratered to .235. I can see him accepting the qualifying offer.
Gomez – This will be worth watching. At one point a couple years ago, Gomez looked to be a lock for a nine-figure deal after this season, having posted back-to-back strong seasons in 2013-2014.
Desmond – He's rebuilt his value with a .285/.335/.449 season (22 HR, 20 SB). Given he's played 100% as an outfielder, that seems to be where he'll stay next year, though given the dearth of quality middle infield options available, perhaps a team will sign him to play shortstop or second base.
Fowler – He should be in line for a multi-year deal, likely with the Cubs.
Reddick – The Dodgers seem interested in retaining him and possibly moving Yasiel Puig.
Saunders – Do you sign him for his first half (.298/.372/.551) or second half (.181/.284/.374)?
Joyce – He has fallen apart lately but still hits for power and has a .399 OBP. Likely a fourth outfielder again in 2017.
Designated Hitter
Top Guy: Kendrys Morales (KC)
Morales should be in line for a multi-year deal after his second 30-homer season. He could be tied down by another qualifying offer, but some team will likely decide that three years of Morales is worth giving up a draft pick.
Prediction: He'll stick in the American League and hit wherever he
lands, likely back in Kansas City.
Other Tier 1: None
The rest: Adam Lind (SEA), Pedro Alvarez (BAL)
Alvarez will likely return to the AL as the half of some team's DH platoon, as he's shown zero ability to hit southpaws for power. Meanwhile, Lind is a slightly less appealing version of Alvarez, so he should wind up in a similar situation.
Starting Pitcher
Top Guy: Rich Hill (LAD)
Stating that the starting pitcher class is thin would be a severe understatement. Hill turns 37 in April, and though he's proven effective when healthy, the most starts he logged in the big leagues from 2008-2015 was 13. Hill has posted a 2.05 ERA, 10.7 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 in 19 starts this year. He also has a 1.53 ERA in his last five starts, and though his ability to throw 180-200 innings is a valid question, market scarcity is going to net Hill one final payday. ]
Prediction: Hill gets Scott Kazmir money from the Dodgers (plus inflation). Three years, $50 million.
Other Tier 1: None
The rest: Jeremy Hellickson (PHI), Ivan Nova (PIT), Andrew Cashner (MIA), Bartolo Colon (NYM), Doug Fister (HOU), R.A. Dickey (TOR)
This should be interesting. Ivan Nova's resurrection in Pittsburgh could get him way overpaid by someone. That said, after posting a 2.41 ERA in his first eight Pirates starts, Nova has allowed nine earned runs in seven innings over his last two starts. He's been rumored to be asking for five years and $70 million, but the recent collapse could have offers more in the 3/36 range. Jeremy Hellickson could get the largest overall contract of any free agent starting pitcher given his youth (29) and sub-4.00 ERA. Five years seems likely, and an average annual salary of $15 million or more could be in play.
Prediction: His stuff plays better in the NL, so that's where he'll likely stay, perhaps even with a surprise team like the Padres, who will be desperate for pitching.
Relief Pitcher
Top Guy: Aroldis Chapman (CHC)
Yankees. Cubs. Dodgers. There won't be a large market club (with the exception of Boston perhaps because of Craig Kimbrel) that won't put in an offer for Chapman's services. Chapman is averaging a "decent" 100.4 mph with his fastball and has impressively cut his BB/9 to 2.7 this year versus a 4.1 career mark. I believe Jonathan Papelbon's $60 million contract is an all-time record for relievers, but Chapman and Kenley Jansen should blow past that mark.
Prediction: Chapman signs a five-year, $80-million deal with the Yankees
Other Tier 1: Kenley Jansen (LAD), Mark Melancon (WAS)
The Giants would love to steal Jansen from the Dodgers, but perhaps they'll be a bit wary after seeing how that worked for Arizona with Zach Greinke.
Prediction: Jansen stays with the Dodgers for five more years at $70 million.
Melancon will rightly see this as his best chance at a payday of a lifetime and go to the highest bidder.
Prediction: The Giants five him $55 million over four years.
The rest: Joe Blanton (LAD), Joaquin Benoit (TOR), Greg Holland (KC), Daniel Hudson (ARI), Jonathan Papelbon (FA), Sergio Romo (SF)
With so many large-market clubs looking for closers, one of the big three is going to get overpaid, but none of these guys really have the upside of a guy who an organization can justify overpaying. Hudson has a 4.01 FIP and 95.7-mph average fastball versus a 5.53 ERA, but no team is going to give him anything near closer money. Holland is still just 30, but he's recovering from Tommy John surgery. He could be a nice bargain, but he won't be closing in April. Finally, Benoit could certainly get a lucrative two-year deal after allowing just one run in his last 24.1 innings before suffering a calf injury.
