Collette Calls: AL LABR Review

In order to best understand the pricing from the auction, it is helpful to understand the dynamics of the room. Defending champ Larry Schechter, who won the league on the final day when Jefry Marte hit a home run, runs his valuations out to the cent, has published a book on his methods and has a resume littered with expert league titles. Shawn Childs of NFBC fame and Greg Ambrosius always have a base of seven players they want to build around, and they will spend to get those players. Our own Clay Link was in the league for the first time, and I speak from experience when I say the new guy in the league always spends aggressively early, and Clay was no exception. The Colton and Wolf team has its Rules of Engagement and SMART system that it mostly followed to a T, but when it did not win the bid on Robinson Cano and won the bid on Kendrys Morales, my mind was blown.

I was not able to hang around for the entire auction, so my thoughts on the prices are based on what I saw online as I followed the draft and listened to SiriusXM, but I did bow out before any of the experts had a chance to get on the air to explain what they were doing.

The Speedsters

Jose Altuve ($45), Mike Trout ($42), Jean Segura ($26), Elvis Andrus ($23), Lorenzo Cain ($21), Kevin Kiermaier ($20), Tim Anderson ($20), Jose Ramirez ($20), Byron Buxton ($19), Carlos Gomez ($18), Rajai Davis ($17), Jarrod Dyson ($16), Jacoby Ellsbury ($15), Brett Gardner ($14), Leonys Martin ($14), Yoan Moncada ($14), Kevin Pillar ($11), Cameron Maybin ($9), Ben Revere ($9), Mallex Smith ($8), Melvin Upton Jr. ($7), Delino DeShields Jr. ($3)

There was a point in the auction were several teams were bereft of speed, which led to this tweet from me:

Several teams ignoring steals so far...will be interesting to how they each chase the likes of Rajai, Dyson, & even Mallex #LABR

— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) March 5, 2017

• Tier 1: Altuve, Trout
• Tier 2: Segura, Andrus, Cain, Kiermaier, Anderson, Ramirez
• Tier 3: Buxton, Gomez, Davis, Dyson, Ellsbury
• Tier 4: Gardner, Martin, Moncada, Pillar, Maybin
• Tier 5: Revere, Smith, Upton, DeShields

The Closers

Aroldis Chapman ($23), Zach Britton ($21), Edwin Diaz ($19), Ken Giles ($18), Roberto Osuna ($17), Craig Kimbrel ($17), Kelvin Herrera ($17), Cody Allen ($15), Alex Colome ($14), Andrew Miller ($14), David Robertson ($14), Francisco Rodriguez ($13), Sam Dyson ($12)

My initial reaction was I was not surprised there were two >$20 closers, but that one of them was Britton. He is coming off one of those historically awesome seasons, so some regression has to be expected, and I thought Diaz or even Giles would be that other $20 guy. The closers are tiering out as expected, but I think it is useful to see how much the closers and their setup guys are going for:

• Tier 1: Chapman, Britton
• Tier 2: Diaz, Giles, Osuna, Kimbrel, Herrera, Allen
• Tier 3: Colome, Robertson, Rodriguez, Dyson
• Tier 4: Madson
• Tier 5: Kintzler, Street

The premium really is not there on the closers, but the discounts are not really there, either. If Madson or Kintzler can hold the job all season and compile some saves, they will have some nice profit potential, but when setup guys such as Cam Bedrosian, Nate Jones and Matt Bush are going for more than closers who have the job, it shows you where the experts are on those pitchers. If you are the type who likes to let others pay for saves, those are your two targets. You could get 50 saves with them and one of the setup men and pay the same price, or less, than someone did for just one reliever.

Shiny New Toys

Tim Anderson ($20), Andrew Benintendi ($20), Yulieski Gurriel ($16), Yoan Moncada ($14), Mitch Haniger ($9), Mallex Smith ($8), Dan Vogelbach ($8), Aaron Judge ($6)

New toys cost money, some more than others. We have three tiers of toys here with the youth/upside of Anderson and Benintendi, the power of Vogelbach and Judge, the speed of a Moncada and Smith and the overall game of Haniger. One of the factors that comes into play with shiny new toys is established veterans get eschewed by experienced players in favor of those toys. The chart below shows the toy and then some players at the same position who went just before or later in the auction:

Gurriel is an unknown because of the limited state-side historical record and that he flew through multiple levels last year. He was taken later in the draft, but if the chase is run production upside, getting Vargas at one-third the cost could provide the same outcome. Anderson's price is tied to his speed because it is so scarce in the American League. Eno Sarris paid nearly as much for Semien this season, but there really was not a similar skillset at the position to chase. Had he decided to get the speed elsewhere, there were more affordable options at shortstop with more established track records.

Benintendi is costly in drafts, and Clay Link paid for his guy. Adam Jones went for a similar price earlier in the auction and other veterans, with their known ups and downs, went cheaper as well. If you want the new toy, that is the premium to pay. On the late speed play, people are chasing Mallex Smith, but the owners who picked up the other three options cheaper made some wise plays because there is a clearer path to playing time, and in DeShields's case, it was just last year when someone said $22 in the room for him and some idiot (me) said $23.

I could go on all day about this auction, but I'm sure some of the others on the staff will have more to say. These were the three areas that intrigued me the most heading into the auction because we Tout Wars participants benefit greatly from learning what happens in the LABR auctions, just as much as others benefit from knowing where the experts are on certain players.