I had the privilege of competing with 11 other teams in the Rotowire/Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert Challenge last week on Aug. 6.
[You can join the next one here] It was a lot of fun and the 10 other owners were fierce competition and had some good smack talk. (One team - where were you? - didn't show).
Of course a week is a long time these days as a ton of news has happened since then (most importantly Ryan Mathews and Trent Richardson injuries).
First, here's my squad. It's a 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, D, 6 bench and no flex.
Rd OV Player (Pos - Team) +/- ADP from MockDraftCentral.com
1. (1) Arian Foster (Hou - RB) 0
2. (24) Greg Jennings (GB - WR) -6
3. (25) DeMarco Murray (Dal - RB) +18
4. (48) Antonio Gates (SD - TE) -10
5. (49) Antonio Brown (Pit - WR) -12
6. (72) Robert Meachem (SD - WR) -30
7. (73) Steven Ridley (NE - RB) -4
8. (96) Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB) +1
9. (97) Malcom Floyd (SD - WR) -25
10. (120) Ronnie Hillman (Den - RB) +27
11. (121) Randall Cobb (GB - WR) +15
12. (144) Jerome Simpson (Min - WR) -63
13. (145) Alex Green (GB - RB) -40
14. (168) Detroit (Det - DEF)
15. (169) Dan Bailey (Dal - K)
I had the first pick and that always helps. If you're picking draft slots this year, I think you want the top three spots to get Foster, Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy - the three reliable every-down backs in the draft. I'm also fine with spot No. 4 since I'd take Calvin Johnson in most formats there. I'm also a card carrying member of the wait-on-the-quarterbacks club, so I'm not taking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees (I don't think the top tier QB's separation from the pack continues to the same extent).
I was very happy to find DeMarco Murray slip to the third round (I'm a believer after his 915 yards in six games stretch last season, plus there's such a big dropoff at RB). He's going in the top ten overall now on MDC, but some of that may be due to the Richardson and Mathews injuries. Of course taking two RBs early had me scrambling for WRs. As a result I probably reached on Meachem and Floyd. I figured hopefully I'd have a
50/50 shot at finding their No. 1 receiver (probably end up being Vincent Brown as a result).
The big dilemma was when to take a TE. And that's a quandary I think a lot of folks are going to have to decide in the third round. I'm an advocate of taking tight ends earlier than before because of the position's increase in fantasy points relative to other positions (here's my feature story on it in this year's RotoWire Fantasy Football Guide). I probably wouldn't have taken Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski in the second round as my league mates did in this draft. (Although I am coming around to Graham as a second-round pick with all the recent injury attrition in the top 15-20 picks) - I don't think they'll produce above the next TE tier to justify passing on a top WR or needed RB. Of course with the first draft slot, I didn't have the chance.
When you are on either end of a draft you can either choose to start the run on a position or wait. I decided to start the run on the second-tier tight ends by taking Gates (and hoping to somewhat offset my weakness at WR). Four TEs had gone in the first 42 picks (someone took Aaron Hernandez a bit early at 42 overall), so that maybe was an aggressive choice. Turns out it was as Jason Witten was available when my next two picks were up (6th/7th round). I probably should have taken either Jeremy Maclin or DeShaun Jackson instead of Gates and grabbed Witten later. Of course that's all moot if Witten's spleen injury causes him to miss regular season games.
I did really like my group of late-round lotto picks. Ronnie Hillman is a big sleeper for me this year. If Peyton Manning is the Manning of old, the offense is going to score points. Hillman is behind two injury prone veterans. That's a strategy that worked before in Indy (ie. Joseph Addai). Randall Cobb is just an injury away from stardom as he's a great per-play player (and good insurance for me for Jennings). Jerome Simpson has had rave reviews in Minnesota's camp and will be the No. 2 receiver after his three-game suspensions. He's on my bench so I hopefully won't need him for three weeks. It's hard to find a team's top-two receiver on almost any offense when you get to pick 144. Alex Green is another younger player behind injury-prone veterans in a dynamic offense (although I like him less after Cedric Benson joined the Pack).
Here's the full draft to compare my team to other squads.
I'll win the league of course, but if not ... Leaguedom2 had a strong draft by following up Ray Rice with a combo of A.J. Green and Julio Jones with this next two picks. Plus he got Witten in the seventh round. And he waited on a QB and got Philip Rivers in the 6th round. I like that value for a QB who has had 4,000+ yards and 27+ TDs each of the past four years. Yes, last year he had 20 INTs, but that is out of the context of his career (previous high of 15). I took almost the rest of the San Diego passing game, so I'm probably biased.
So how did I do? Are you taking Gates or a non-Graham/Gronkowski TE in the late third/early fourth round?