Obviously your goal, when drafting your team, is to load it up with as many no-brainer picks as you can. You want players that you feel comfortable with leaving in your starting lineup, week after week, without worrying about the match-ups. However, when it comes to wide receivers, the task at hand becomes much more difficult. Numerous leagues start three receivers and with the increasing number of two-back systems being implemented, more fantasy owners are turning to the wideouts for their flex position. Therefore, it's not only important to know when to draft the premium receivers, but also how high (or how long you can wait) to draft even the lower-tiered guys. Here's a look at the current ADP trends for the Top 50 wide receivers.
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | ||
| Roddy White | ATL | 13.26 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 13.04 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 13.17 | -0.7|PERCENT| |
| Andre Johnson | HOU | 13.42 | 10.0|PERCENT| | 14.76 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 14.75 | 9.9|PERCENT| |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | 15.57 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 15.97 | 2.0|PERCENT| | 16.29 | 4.6|PERCENT| |
| Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 19.83 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 19.61 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 19.73 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| Greg Jennings | GB | 21.55 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 21.94 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 21.69 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 23.76 | 9.1|PERCENT| | 25.93 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 26.37 | 11.0|PERCENT| |
| Reggie Wayne | IND | 25.09 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 24.77 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 24.13 | -3.8|PERCENT| |
| Miles Austin | DAL | 26.79 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 26.63 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 26.33 | -1.7|PERCENT| |
| Dwayne Bowe | KC | 30.12 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 29.39 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 28.54 | -5.2|PERCENT| |
| Mike Wallace | PIT | 32.95 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 33.75 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 33.63 | 2.1|PERCENT| |
| Mike Williams | TB | 34.37 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 33.61 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 32.60 | -5.1|PERCENT| |
| Vincent Jackson | SD | 35.20 | 8.0|PERCENT| | 38.02 | 2.7|PERCENT| | 39.03 | 10.9|PERCENT| |
| DeSean Jackson | PHI | 39.30 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 39.49 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 39.22 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Marques Colston | NO | 39.42 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 38.22 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 37.07 | -6.0|PERCENT| |
| Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 41.21 | -3.5|PERCENT| | 39.78 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 38.44 | -6.7|PERCENT| |
| Steve Johnson | BUF | 42.06 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 40.84 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 40.14 | -4.6|PERCENT| |
| Brandon Lloyd | DEN | 42.68 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 42.30 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 41.40 | -3.0|PERCENT| |
| Brandon Marshall | MIA | 44.61 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 44.77 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 44.20 | -0.9|PERCENT| |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 50.27 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 50.63 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 50.22 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| Santonio Holmes | NYJ | 53.17 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 52.70 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 52.05 | -2.1|PERCENT| |
| Sidney Rice | SEA | 53.67 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 52.20 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 51.11 | -4.8|PERCENT| |
| Wes Welker | NE | 56.20 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 57.14 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 57.09 | 1.6|PERCENT| |
| Percy Harvin | MIN | 59.85 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 59.55 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 58.74 | -1.9|PERCENT| |
| Kenny Britt | TEN | 60.99 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 59.50 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 58.35 | -4.3|PERCENT| |
| Anquan Boldin | BAL | 63.09 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 63.48 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 62.64 | -0.7|PERCENT| |
| Austin Collie | IND | 65.96 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 64.45 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 63.71 | -3.4|PERCENT| |
| Michael Crabtree | SF | 71.87 | -3.3|PERCENT| | 69.49 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 68.56 | -4.6|PERCENT| |
| Pierre Garcon | IND | 74.38 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 72.43 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 71.18 | -4.3|PERCENT| |
| Mike Williams | SEA | 75.35 | -4.2|PERCENT| | 72.16 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 70.67 | -6.2|PERCENT| |
| Malcom Floyd | SD | 76.09 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 74.29 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 73.13 | -3.9|PERCENT| |
| Santana Moss | WAS | 78.23 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 77.56 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 76.74 | -1.9|PERCENT| |
| Chad Ochocinco | NE | 78.38 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 79.72 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 78.19 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Mario Manningham | NYG | 82.25 | 6.4|PERCENT| | 87.53 | 3.1|PERCENT| | 90.20 | 9.7|PERCENT| |
| Steven Smith | PHI | 83.94 | -5.6|PERCENT| | 79.21 | -2.5|PERCENT| | 77.20 | -8.0|PERCENT| |
| Steve Smith | CAR | 90.29 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 88.87 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 87.48 | -3.1|PERCENT| |
| Roy Williams | CHI | 91.31 | 27.5|PERCENT| | 116.46 | 37.3|PERCENT| | 159.94 | 75.2|PERCENT| |
| Deion Branch | NE | 91.80 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 88.70 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 86.96 | -5.3|PERCENT| |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 94.83 | 24.9|PERCENT| | 118.48 | 25.0|PERCENT| | 148.12 | 56.2|PERCENT| |
| Jacoby Ford | OAK | 97.78 | -2.8|PERCENT| | 95.01 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 93.89 | -4.0|PERCENT| |
| Robert Meachem | NO | 98.84 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 95.98 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 95.10 | -3.8|PERCENT| |
| Hines Ward | PIT | 100.11 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 97.96 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 96.70 | -3.4|PERCENT| |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 101.37 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 99.29 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 97.39 | -3.9|PERCENT| |
| Mike Sims-Walker | STL | 104.75 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 103.82 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 103.59 | -1.1|PERCENT| |
| Johnny Knox | CHI | 108.74 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 107.07 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 104.48 | -3.5|PERCENT| |
| Nate Burleson | DET | 116.13 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 115.29 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 114.59 | -1.3|PERCENT| |
| Davone Bess | MIA | 121.28 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 119.35 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 118.97 | -1.9|PERCENT| |
| Danny Amendola | STL | 127.35 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 128.66 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 127.27 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| Braylon Edwards | SF | 137.25 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 140.57 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 140.22 | 2.2|PERCENT| |
| Legedu Naanee | CAR | 145.16 | -4.1|PERCENT| | 139.24 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 139.62 | -3.8|PERCENT| |
| Mike Thomas | JAX | 149.34 | 4.9|PERCENT| | 156.73 | 4.7|PERCENT| | 164.11 | 9.9|PERCENT| |
Just as a quick reminder, the above list is for NFL Standard leagues, not PPR leagues. There's not really much of a difference in the names that you see in the top 50, but draft positions certainly do change. Overall, players such as the top 20 wide receivers listed, go higher in drafts due to the points they accumulate being a heavy target in games while possession receivers such as Santonio Holmes or Anquan Boldin go higher than some of the deep threats. If you have a solid possession receiver with good hands and the QB's trust, then you've got some fantasy gold there in PPR leagues. But the above list is based solely on yardage and touchdowns, so there are definitely some subtle differences.
Risers
It looks like Andre Johnson is giving Roddy White more of a run for his money at the top spot as the preseason moves along. The connection between Johnson and Matt Schaub is one of the bets in the game and it's been on display, front and center, over the last two weeks. In the last two games, Johnson has caught 8 passes for 157 yards, including catches of 30 and 48 yards, and has looked fantastic overall. Health has always been a bit of an issue, but that's not nearly enough to scare people off, obviously, as his ADP continues to climb.
After a relatively quiet start to the preseason (3 catches for 75 yards in 2 games), Larry Fitzgerald and his new QB finally hooked up big. In the third preseason contest, he caught 3 passes for 108 yards, including an 80 yard touchdown and fantasy owners were, apparently, immediately sold as his ADP rank climbed 9.1|PERCENT| in the last week.
Vincent Jackson is starting to take off a little more in drafts as his ADP rank has increased 10.9|PERCENT| over the last two weeks. If the preseason is any indication of the type of ball the Chargers are going to play, then it definitely makes sense to start looking at Jackson as a top 10 receiver. He's seen the most targets of any other receivers on the team, has more receiving yards than anyone else and is looked at by Phillip Rivers as both a possession receiver and a deep threat. No wonder he's jumped 14.4|PERCENT| in PPR leagues and is being taken ahead of other top receivers in less pass-happy environments in all leagues.
Last season, Mario Manningham really stepped up in the absence ofHakeem Nicks and built a solid rapport with Eli Manning. This season he's been given the nod to start opposite Nicks and is getting plenty of looks in the offense. Working with the first team last game, Manningham had 4 catches for 39 yards and was an obvious target for Manning the whole time which resulted in a 6.4|PERCENT| increase in just the last week. That trend could continue with a strong game against the Jets Monday night.
We've covered the ascensions of both Roy Williams and Julio Jones to death already, but the one thing that should be pointed out is who's for real and who isn't. While negative reports continue to come in about Williams, his ADP rank has not risen as much in the past week as it had in the weeks prior. Jones, on the other hand, continues to increase at about at the same rate and should actually continue to climb. Don't be surprised to see Williams start to level off while Jones leapfrogs him over the next week.
And finally, keep an eye on Jaguars wideout, Mike Thomas who saw a 9.9|PERCENT| increase over the last 2 weeks. He's having a solid camp, developing a great relationship with David Garrard and should probably see plenty of targets, both possession-wise and deep as the number one guy. He's far enough down on the list that you can wait on him, but don't expect everyone to overlook him once they start filling in their team's bench.
Fallers
As always, the drops that are less than 10.0|PERCENT| only translate to a pick or two as opposed to rounds. Therefore, the concern about drop-offs here in the top 50 is pretty minimal. Still, there are a few players that may be catching your eye…
…like Marques Colston who continues to drop steadily while he recovers from offseason knee surgery. It's not like people are losing faith in him too much, but people are starting to take others like Vincent Jackson, Brandon Lloyd and Steve Johnson ahead of him.
Seattle's Mike Williams is starting to lose his luster and is dropping in drafts with the presence of both Sidney Rice and Zach Miller, two of Tavaris Jackson's favorite targets. If Golden Tate starts to mesh a little better with the first team, he too could steal targets, dropping Williams even further.
And finally, watch out for Philadelphia's Steven Smith. He's slowly dropping in drafts – 8.0|PERCENT| over the last 2 weeks – but he shouldn't even be going as high as he is right now. Smith is still recovering from offseason surgery and is still behind the likes of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant on the depth charts, so the chances of him getting much in the way of targets while he's still recuperating are pretty slim.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for 10 years on various websites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts, or comments you can email him at [email protected].